Luke as a starter?

[DSouthr]

OK, so it is the off season and may upset a few folks with this but I still have a good number of concerns with Luke as a starter. I see a lot of folks that feel he will play in the upper 20s if not 30mins + this coming season. Now I love Luke as a role player and I hope he can step in to a starting role and excel even more. Fundamentally he is rock solid but athletically he isn't a typical 4 that we have been accustomed to not being all that long or an explosive leaper. He shot pretty well for us last season but a lot of that was good shot selection, didn't have to force a lot, didn't need to because he was not the defenses primary concern.

In other words IMO, Luke was not a primary scorer for us and as such was able to get and take cleaner looks than is likely to be the case coming season, unless one of our frosh big men steps way up. I as well think that maybe Luke could struggle with foul trouble, which I think may make it hard for him to get minutes consistently in the high 20s due to having to guard some pretty darn athletic 4s, while his positioning is solid his feet are not exactly quick or fast.

Shooting 47% from the field and 37% from beyond the arch, pretty solid but do those numbers hold up as defenses begin to key more on stopping him, the 50% from the free throw line has got to improve. Can he get his shot off with defenses keying more on him, not sure I can answer that right now but do think it is a good question.

 

[dadika13]

TL DR...Luke should start at the 4.

 

[gunslingerdick]

TL DR...Luke should start at the 4.

Luke should and will start at the 4. But with that said, I share some of the same concerns in the OP.

 

[soap - new and improved]

I will be surprised if Luke doesn't start, and I think his FT % will be solid with more game time and perhaps aided by more confidence from his Tourney experience.

I think Roy is smart enough and Luke's team mates good enough that they will still find ways to get him some open looks. D against him will be tougher as he is not a secret anymore and any starter will get "more" attention defensively. But I suspect LM is and has been working hard to improve, so next season's Luke will be harder to guard than he was this season.

At any rate, I trust Roy to start, or not start all players on the team as he sees fit. I believe Roy will utilize our guys where the team, and the individual both have their best chances for success.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

History paints a pretty clear picture!

Luke will start and get every chance to prove he can overcome his athletic and size handicaps. I believe his off season work and anticipation will mitigate the speed issue, but defense will certainly determine how long he plays. Luke was a scorer in HS and showed he can score on more athletic peeps in games last year. I bet he can step up his scoring and FT %. I wonder if he can play enough D without fouling to stay in games also.

 

[CanuckChuck]

Shooting 47% from the field and 37% from beyond the arch, pretty solid but do those numbers hold up as defenses begin to key more on stopping him, the 50% from the free throw line has got to improve. Can he get his shot off with defenses keying more on him, not sure I can answer that right now but do think it is a good question.

It will be interesting to see if Luke can increase his min (20-25 range) and keep his efficiency. What worries me is that recent players like Brice, Kennedy, and Theo did not really improve much between their So and Jr years. I think it will be hard for Luke to buck that trend although I'm hoping he pulls a Justin and really shines.

CC

 

[GlennT]

I don't see Luke trying to get his own shot very much if at all. What I do see is his shooting prowess drawing away a potential rim protector from tha baskey, opening up driving lanes for some of the other players. His off the ball movement will be crucial to him being effective on the perimeter as well as getting position for rebounds. I do not see his scoring going up dramatically.
But the young man knows how to play the game. I am just looking forward to this season, to see how Roy uses all of the experienced players, meshing them with the younger ones, and developing those young ones.
We'll know better how it is going to work after afew games. So why isn't it November yet?

Glenn

 

[Tom79]

If Luke can pull a 4 away from the paint or basket, great, he is a very good passer and guys getting to the right places or cutting would be the recipients. Then he can roll to rebound.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

OK, so it is the off season and may upset a few folks with this but I still have a good number of concerns with Luke as a starter. I see a lot of folks that feel he will play in the upper 20s if not 30mins + this coming season. Now I love Luke as a role player and I hope he can step in to a starting role and excel even more. Fundamentally he is rock solid but athletically he isn't a typical 4 that we have been accustomed to not being all that long or an explosive leaper. He shot pretty well for us last season but a lot of that was good shot selection, didn't have to force a lot, didn't need to because he was not the defenses primary concern.

In other words IMO, Luke was not a primary scorer for us and as such was able to get and take cleaner looks than is likely to be the case coming season, unless one of our frosh big men steps way up. I as well think that maybe Luke could struggle with foul trouble, which I think may make it hard for him to get minutes consistently in the high 20s due to having to guard some pretty darn athletic 4s, while his positioning is solid his feet are not exactly quick or fast.

Shooting 47% from the field and 37% from beyond the arch, pretty solid but do those numbers hold up as defenses begin to key more on stopping him, the 50% from the free throw line has got to improve. Can he get his shot off with defenses keying more on him, not sure I can answer that right now but do think it is a good question.

I raised similar concerns a while back. Not that I doubt Luke's grit, but some of the expectations may be too high.

I would add one thing you didn't focus on - and that is whether Luke has the stamina to play high minutes. He only played more than 20 mpg 4 times last season. Doesn't mean he can't, just means we haven't seen him do it on a regular basis.

That said, the PF starting spot is certainly Luke's to lose. And we know from experience that when we say that about a player, Roy usually ends up keeping that player in the starting spot longer than some fans may like. Drew and Kendall, Nate and Berry.

Which is to say that even if Luke is better coming off the bench - a distinct possibility - he will start, and he will only get pushed to the bench if/when the new guy has clearly arrived.

So, for example, most of us think Brooks is the most ready of our freshman bigs. And most of us also think he's best suited to play the 4 and not the 5. Likewise, Luke is not a center. So it makes sense for those 2 to split the minutes at PF.

But that assumes someone is covering the post. If Manley and Huffman can handle the post, then Luke starts at PF and Brooks pushes him. If Brooks turns out to be really good, he might have a chance to supplant Luke.

But if Manley and Huffman can't cover the post, then we are more in a scramble mode and could see Brooks in the middle, Luke in the middle, or more small ball.

 

[gary-7]

OK, so it is the off season and may upset a few folks with this but I still have a good number of concerns with Luke as a starter. I see a lot of folks that feel he will play in the upper 20s if not 30mins + this coming season. Now I love Luke as a role player and I hope he can step in to a starting role and excel even more. Fundamentally he is rock solid but athletically he isn't a typical 4 that we have been accustomed to not being all that long or an explosive leaper. He shot pretty well for us last season but a lot of that was good shot selection, didn't have to force a lot, didn't need to because he was not the defenses primary concern.

In other words IMO, Luke was not a primary scorer for us and as such was able to get and take cleaner looks than is likely to be the case coming season, unless one of our frosh big men steps way up. I as well think that maybe Luke could struggle with foul trouble, which I think may make it hard for him to get minutes consistently in the high 20s due to having to guard some pretty darn athletic 4s, while his positioning is solid his feet are not exactly quick or fast.

Shooting 47% from the field and 37% from beyond the arch, pretty solid but do those numbers hold up as defenses begin to key more on stopping him, the 50% from the free throw line has got to improve. Can he get his shot off with defenses keying more on him, not sure I can answer that right now but do think it is a good question.

I'm sort of SMH over this post. Suffice to say Luke will be more than fine offensively. The intel I passed on comes from spot-on sources. His shot is confident and deadly and his release has gotten quicker as his confidence has grown.

As for the FT%, yes, that # needs to improve and I'll go ahead and go out on a very sturdy limb and tell you it will. Luke broke out last season but didn't get to the line that much in his sporadic minutes, and it can be tough to find a rhythm. That should change this season. His mechanics are too good for it not to.

His challenge will be defensively, as it always has been in guarding guys away from the basket, or bigger traditional posts. Since he doesn't encounter the latter as much, guarding guys on the perimeter is actually one of the focus points Roy gave him to work on. I think we'll see improvement in that area... but honestly it's the only legit "question" mark with Luke.

I told y'all last summer Luke was going to break out and be a major factor in our success (all the while so many writers weren't even including him in our post rotation). What I said was not a guess... I'm telling you now that he will take the next step into being a lynch pin of this season's team.

 

[beaufort bum]

You don't have to be able to dunk behind your head and hot dog it up to be the ultimate team player and fundamentally sound type player that wins college championships.
Take one a year just like him and he'll yea start and do great

 

[Steat]

Bird will start and average 13-15 pts a game. On top of that he will make second/third team All-ACC. That "set shot" will be potent. I have no concerns....none whatsover. He will be the most clutch shooter on the team.

 

[superstar57]

The key words in the first post says it all, fundamentally Luke is a "rock".

A fundementall player is exactly what this team needs. Just think about if Manley, Huffman, or Brooks where labeled as rock fundamentally we all would be happy.

No concerns about foul trouble, Luke was active on defense last year, but was not that Isiah Hicks active that gets you in trouble.

 

[gauchoheel]

I've seen Luke on campus a couple of times this year, he is looking great. He looks considerably leaner but without losing muscle mass. I don't think his defense will ever be spectacular due to his length and lateral quickness limitations, but I'm excited to see his offense this year. He's looked ready to pull the trigger from 3 in the offseason clips, which I think will actually be a big improvement for us. Ultimately unless Cam can actually play 4 full-time (I can't see that against the bigger guys) Luke will be the starter.

I'm wondering how often we're going to be running freaky lineups (think Notre Dame with 6'5" Colson at the 5). If the freshman aren't as ready as we hope things will probably get weird.

Of course I still really hope one of Manley or Huffman is ready to be a strong rim protector. Just saying they might not be.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

This is an off-season conversation that makes a good deal of sense to me. There are questions about any bench player that must step up and become a team leader. I feel confident because I have read players, including current pros, that have said he will be a problem. I have heard coaches and observers report that he has made strides ion his confidence and defensive abilities. I also saw his effectiveness with my own eyes last season and I know a natural rebounder and a technically sound baller when I see one. Of course I want to see quicker feet and effective on ball D against bigger, faster, and/or stronger 4s with my own eyes, but I am confident he will handle it.

Calling him, Bird, is fun but I think it might lead some to believe we think he really is the second coming of the Legend. Nothing could be further from the truth; he is a worthy starter who will be a leader and a problem for opponents next season and that is enough for me!

 

[DSouthr]

Not dumping on Luke but fans are expecting, even some stating as indisputable fact that Luke will be a major cog for us and not considering that may not happen in as big a way as they think. I hope Luke can fulfill those lofty expectations but IMO it is not crazy at all to have questions of can he. To me it is maybe even more likely that one of our frosh bigs step up big time than expecting Luke to become an ACC 1st teamer, which would be the case if many of these projected expectations are met.

Luke played great for us in some of those NCAAT games last season, hit the shot of the tourney taking down Ky, big time for sure. But he did have a lot of help and a lot of that help, specifically that front court, is no longer there.

Luke's season stats for last season are, 14.mins a game, 5pts, 3rpg, shot 37.5% from the field, 37.5% from trey, 50% free throw, and averaged 1.8 fouls in those 14mins. Now I can accept he can add to those stats as a Jr, I expect him to and yeah I do expect him to start and have said so many times. But to expect that Luke will produce 15-20pts a game, double digit rpgs, raise that free throw % up by 20-30pts?

I watched Luke just as everyone else did, I have reasonable questions that I believe I am going to have to trust more what my eyes see than what someone tells me in August will happen in a season that is nearly 2months away, even if it makes one shake their head.

Now as for me, I am expecting 8-10pts a game, 7-8 rpgs, around 24-26 mins a game. That would be a really nice bump from last season and I think achievable for him. 1.8 fouls/14mins last season is a concern, double the minutes and he is 3.6 fouls on average in 28mins, could be a concern.

 

[gauchoheel]

Not dumping on Luke but fans are expecting, even some stating as indisputable fact that Luke will be a major cog for us and not considering that may not happen in as big a way as they think. I hope Luke can fulfill those lofty expectations but IMO it is not crazy at all to have questions of can he. To me it is maybe even more likely that one of our frosh bigs step up big time than expecting Luke to become an ACC 1st teamer, which would be the case if many of these projected expectations are met.

Luke played great for us in some of those NCAAT games last season, hit the shot of the tourney taking down Ky, big time for sure. But he did have a lot of help and a lot of that help, specifically that front court, is no longer there.

Luke's season stats for last season are, 14.mins a game, 5pts, 3rpg, shot 37.5% from the field, 37.5% from trey, 50% free throw, and averaged 1.8 fouls in those 14mins. Now I can accept he can add to those stats as a Jr, I expect him to and yeah I do expect him to start and have said so many times. But to expect that Luke will produce 15-20pts a game, double digit rpgs, raise that free throw % up by 20-30pts?

I watched Luke just as everyone else did, I have reasonable questions that I believe I am going to have to trust more what my eyes see than what someone tells me in August will happen in a season that is nearly 2months away, even if it makes one shake their head.

Now as for me, I am expecting 8-10pts a game, 7-8 rpgs, around 24-26 mins a game. That would be a really nice bump from last season and I think achievable for him. 1.8 fouls/14mins last season is a concern, double the minutes and he is 3.6 fouls on average in 28mins, could be a concern.

In a previous thread I projected 25 minutes per game from Luke. If he hit that and exactly matched his "per 40 minutes" production from last year then he'd score 9.8 points and grab 7 rebounds per game. I think that is a fair baseline in terms of expectations.

Hopefully he can be a little bit more aggressive in terms of shooting this year (getting him to 12-13 points per game) and up his FT% too. I'm not sure what to expect in terms of rebounding. On the one hand, we've lost a lot of production and need Luke to help out. On the other, I expect him to stay mostly on the outside on offense now that he's established himself as a shooter.

 

[Steat]

This is an off-season conversation that makes a good deal of sense to me. There are questions about any bench player that must step up and become a team leader. I feel confident because I have read players, including current pros, that have said he will be a problem. I have heard coaches and observers report that he has made strides ion his confidence and defensive abilities. I also saw his effectiveness with my own eyes last season and I know a natural rebounder and a technically sound baller when I see one. Of course I want to see quicker feet and effective on ball D against bigger, faster, and/or stronger 4s with my own eyes, but I am confident he will handle it.

Calling him, Bird, is fun but I think it might lead some to believe we think he really is the second coming of the Legend. Nothing could be further from the truth; he is a worthy starter who will be a leader and a problem for opponents next season and that is enough for me!

'it might lead some to believe we think he really is the second coming of the Legend"

I recommend that you take the "some to believe we think" out of this. To my knowledge, I am the only person on the board that refers to Luke as the Bird. The entire fan base should not be ridiculed for my opinion. I have said this once and I will say this again. I never said Luke was the second coming of Larry Bird. What I did say is that he shoots a "set shot" like Larry Bird and both Luke and Larry Bird are not very athletic. The comparison stops there. The "set shot" is a big part of Luke's game. Larry Bird was not very athletic, but his passing and shooting skills could not be matched. I believe Bird will make second or third team All ACC, and many can ridicule me on this also. I will continue to call him Bird.....and as Rhett Butler said to Scarlett O'hara in the last scene of the best movie ever (Gone With The Wind)...."Frankly my dear, I don't give a damm".

Bird for 3....

 

[Tom79]

Uh, steat, that would be "damn"...
Please use your moniker as you like. I agree the set shot is money. I like the idea of a 6'8" guy that can shoot or pass from outside. Guard him and he can set up Theo on a cut or don't guard him and "money" hits....

 

[Steat]

Uh, steat, that would be "damn"...
Please use your moniker as you like. I agree the set shot is money. I like the idea of a 6'8" guy that can shoot or pass from outside. Guard him and he can set up Theo on a cut or don't guard him and "money" hits....

Bird for 3

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The key words in the first post says it all, fundamentally Luke is a "rock".

A fundementall player is exactly what this team needs. Just think about if Manley, Huffman, or Brooks where labeled as rock fundamentally we all would be happy.

No concerns about foul trouble, Luke was active on defense last year, but was not that Isiah Hicks active that gets you in trouble.

On a 40 minutes basis, Isaiah got his fouls down to 5.2. Luke was 5.1.

Like you, I don't think of Luke as being foul prone, but that might just be because he wasn't a starter and wasn't playing starter minutes against the best opposition.

Which is to say that he didn't need to be particularly careful last year. But he will need to be this year.

If I'm an opposing coach, I will be testing Luke hard.

 

[Archer2]

Basketball IQ wasn't Isaiah's forte, it's one of Luke's strengths. He will adjust as he plays more minutes. I'm convinced he will be a 12/7 guy.

 

[pln2013]

Maye was never important enough for fans to recognize how foul prone he was. If he doesn't reduce his fouls this year, we'll notice.

 

[DSouthr]

Basketball IQ wasn't Isaiah's forte, it's one of Luke's strengths. He will adjust as he plays more minutes. I'm convinced he will be a 12/7 guy.

Arch, I don't know that I would say Hicks picked up most of his fouls due to a lack of bball IQ, yeah, every now and then he struck his hand in the cookie jar as they say but most of it, IMO, was more his being switched out on wings who were able to out quick him and he just could not move his feet well enough to stay with them, inviting the reach to try to catch up. Based on what I have seen, I would suggest Hicks feet were quicker than Luke's. Now Luke does a good job at positioning, maybe better than Hicks but Hicks was a good bit more athletic than Luke and athleticism erases a lot of mistakes.

Me personally, I love my power forward to be really strong athletically, I want him to have a solid BBall IQ as well, I was very comfortable with Hicks at the 4, more so than I am with Luke as our starting 4 this season because I do think Luke will be tested by opposing 4s and I don't know yet if we will have those off ball shot blockers able and ready to help, I do think he will need help side.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Bottom line is that Luke was a good bit better last season than most of us expected him to be.

Unfortunately, it isn't easy for a player to advance that much 2 years in a row. Yet Luke will almost need to. First because he won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. Second because he'll be getting attention from the best defenders and will be game-planned as a starter not a bencher.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how he does, but he has his work cut out for him.

 

[Archer2]

I'm sorry, but Isaiah's basketball IQ was one of his biggest weaknesses. He never learned to let his man go if he was beaten. IOW, he couldn't learn to "not foul". So one of our most gifted players limited his own PT.

Luke will not do that to himself. He's smarter than that.

 

[dadika13]

The entire fan base should not be ridiculed for my opinion.

Amen brother.

 

[gary-7]

Bottom line is that Luke was a good bit better last season than most of us expected him to be.

Unfortunately, it isn't easy for a player to advance that much 2 years in a row.

...except that he has.

 

[superstar57]

The reason players do not expand as much 2 years in a row is because there role doesn't change that much. Luke's role changes a lot compared to last year.

A little off topic, but I will ask anyway. Who is the better player between Luke and Theo?

 

[gauchoheel]

The reason players do not expand as much 2 years in a row is because there role doesn't change that much. Luke's role changes a lot compared to last year.

A little off topic, but I will ask anyway. Who is the better player between Luke and Theo?

Theo. Better defender, passer, and ball handler. Luke is a better shooter and rebounder though.

 

[gary-7]

The reason players do not expand as much 2 years in a row is because there role doesn't change that much. Luke's role changes a lot compared to last year.

A little off topic, but I will ask anyway. Who is the better player between Luke and Theo?

Well, Theo is more gifted in basketball-specific athleticism, and stands out in his versatility, but make no mistake --- Luke is a player who can excel at this level. While his body type isn't basketball-optimal he is indeed very coordinated and smoothly athletic in his own right --- the kind of guy who is probably naturally good at everything he tries... and he knows how to play.

 

[Archer2]

As someone who was high on Luke from the git go, I really wasn't very surprised when he stepped up and made plays down the stretch, but I realize many were.

I'm no basketball guru by any stretch but I saw how he played against much higher ranked comp in high school. That, his work ethic, and his lineage led me to believe he was the real deal. When a few of us said he may well start by his Junior year, it was thought to be madness(homerism). But he has earned a starting spot and I will be dumbfounded if he doesn't start the majority of our games this year.

Like Joel, he has more heart than most players. And also like Joel, he possesses a strong work ethic that enables him to exceed his physical limitations.

With Joel, Theo, Luke, and Roy leading this team, I think we're in great hands.

 

[DSouthr]

I'm sorry, but Isaiah's basketball IQ was one of his biggest weaknesses. He never learned to let his man go if he was beaten. IOW, he couldn't learn to "not foul". So one of our most gifted players limited his own PT.

Luke will not do that to himself. He's smarter than that.

I respectfully disagree that Hicks had a low BBall IQ, no, it wasn't as high as Meeks or Luke for feel for the situation, granted and just IMO. The problem was the same as we saw from Brice, Hicks for our bigs last season had the better quickness so he was the guy that was charged with guarding more in space simply because Meeks, Tony, and Luke struggled to contain out on space. Now yeah, Hicks did as well but ya have to go with the most able and that was Hicks.

It is a fine line, do ya let a guy go that has got that half step on ya or do ya try to catch back up, in the moment a kids competitive instinct takes over, the very thing that allows him to be a player at this level, hard for me to fault a kid for that. Roy teaches his guys to funnel a driver in to shot blocking, help defense, but that help defense has to be there. Meeks for all the good he gave us last season was not our typical help defense shot blocker, he was not a high riser nor nimble of feet. He got much better last season, had great timing on his blocks but many times Hicks reached a little bit because he did not trust the back side shot blocker would be there to clean up.

Now it is easy for us to say, just let him go if you are beat but if you are a player and let that guy go a couple times, ya know what ya hear from Roy? LOL

 

[Archer2]

We'll agree to disagree then. Hicks possesses late first round draft abilities. It's the six inches between his ears that limits him.

 

[DSouthr]

We'll agree to disagree then. Hicks possesses late first round draft abilities. It's the six inches between his ears that limits him.

LOL, its all good arch, friends can disagree and not be disagreeable about it.

 

[Archer2]

LOL, its all good arch, friends can disagree and not be disagreeable about it.

Absolutely.

I guess I'm just a little disappointed in Isaiah's UNC career, as I thought he would be a dominant player by his junior year. And while he showed flashes of greatness, he was, in the end, simply a solid ACC player.

TBS, that hanging shot he made at the end of the title game was clutch as hell. And he was an integral part of teams that went to BTB title games and won the last one. No one can ever take that away from him.

And he will make a very good living playing basketball somewhere.

 

[Steat]

Bird for 3

 

[Steat]

 

[Steat]

Here is a wild thought. Would it be a shock if Luke led the team in scoring?

 

[pln2013]

Here is a wild thought. Would it be a shock if Luke led the team in scoring?

View embedded media

Don't think it's likely, but it's not the craziest idea. Depends on how good of a shooter he truly is. If he can hit in the high 30s from 3 and mid 40s from midrange (which is hard to do), it could happen.