PLAYING TIME PROJECTIONS - What've You Got?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Starters in bold.

Player	@ PG	@ SG	@ SF	@ PF	@ C	Total
Cadeau	28*	--	--	--	--	28
RJ	10	18*	--	--	--	28
Seth	2	--	--	--	--	2
Wilcher	--	10	--	--	--	10
Cormac	--	10	17	--	--	27
Paxson	--	2	6	--	--	8
Harrison	--	--	15*	13	--	28
Withers	--	--	2	21*	5	28
Washington	--	--	--	6	5	11
Armando	--	--	--	--	27*	27
High	--	--	--	--	3	3

* Starter at this position

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Nobody is going to take a stab at this?

Just reply to my post and fill in your own numbers.

It's hard. We have too many good players to give them all the number of minutes we might think they deserve.

You have to ask yourself who you want on the floor the most, and with whom.

For example, I have RJ starting at SG. But there are 4 other guys who could play at that position: Ryan, Wilcher, Wojcik and Trimble.

By having RJ back up at point, I free up a bunch of SG minutes for those guys. But that, in turn, cuts into Trimble's (and maybe Wilcher's) minutes backing up at point. Which I justify to myself by saying that the team will be better off with Cormac Ryan at SG than with Seth at PG.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I still think we’re very much in the wait and see mode. There are only 4 guys IMO who we know can really play at this level.

RJ, Cormac, Ingram, Bacot. I’m putting Ingram in there since he was reasonably productive in the Pac 12. We have one guy who we’re assuming can play but hasn’t played CBB yet, Cadeau. So that leaves us 5 dudes that we’re comfortable with right now.

We think Withers can probably play at this level and are hopeful he’ll be better with better players. So that’s 6.

We have no idea if Wilcher will be good or not this season. No idea if Wojcik can play this level of basketball or not. I like Washington but there are several question marks surrounding him. Seth has an opportunity to be a defensive stud guard on a roster that lacks one right now. Is he ready to take that roll while improving his offense?

I’d be careful to say we have too many good players if we don’t know how good 5 of our 11 guys are. I like Wojcik, Withers, Washington but that isn’t really based on anything concrete.

BUT. I think HD will have an opportunity to hunt matchups and lineups if he wants to this season.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Nobody is going to take a stab at this?

Nope

 

[Archer2]

We may yet add a player(s). Are we this desperate for offseason things to discuss? Perhaps these pure conjecture threads are getting too numerous.

 

[DSouthr]

Nobody is going to take a stab at this?

Just reply to my post and fill in your own numbers.

It's hard. We have too many good players to give them all the number of minutes we might think they deserve.

You have to ask yourself who you want on the floor the most, and with whom.

For example, I have RJ starting at SG. But there are 4 other guys who could play at that position: Ryan, Wilcher, Wojcik and Trimble.

By having RJ back up at point, I free up a bunch of SG minutes for those guys. But that, in turn, cuts into Trimble's (and maybe Wilcher's) minutes backing up at point. Which I justify to myself by saying that the team will be better off with Cormac Ryan at SG than with Seth at PG.

I do very much agree in that you have no one with more than 28mins a game, while I would pull that down to 25mins per game max there is no reason at all to quibble over 3mins.

But I have to agree with jung a little bit on this one (don't you dare tell him I said that ;-) LOL
WE do have some questions that need answers, not so much that the roster may not yet be set, with Cadeau I really hope the roster is complete including no more reclasses to the coming team.

I look at Washington, I have to question how much this off season has him back to his pre-injury form, he had a LONG way to go just to get any where close to his pre-injury play in what we saw from him this past season, so far he could be Sterling Manley where his body just does not allow him to get back to what he was pre-injury and he could be like others that did recover and went on to stellar careers. I would say if he is able to get back most of his pre-injury game that we would have a kid that plays a lot, could well start, could well be one of the best stretch 4s in the country actually, long way from where he was last season, maybe to far away.

Seth Trimble, I think most would agree, if they knew that Seth would be able to come in to next season with a reliable dependable jump shot out to the 3pt arch, which I actually think is more likely than Jalen's recovering to his pre-injury play, I think most Tar Heel fans would see Seth in a very different light. This has been done before by UNC players, guys that didn't shoot it real well as freshmen but came back as sophs and shot much better, Kenny Williams, Joel Berry are 2 rather recent back court examples. Projections of his PT can skew either way depending on how much jump shooting he can show next season, even what position he will play. Hard to project his PT with this huge un-answered question.

Withers, in what now seems like the minority opinion that I hold, I think Withers is or at least should be a starter because I think he can hit a very strong level of open look jump shots and I can see easy open looks a plenty for our power forward next season and Cadeau is the kind of PG that will find the open guy. Frankly I think this kid will blow up next season because of how he fits to the rest of his team mates, I see him as very good at exactly what we need from our 4 next season. Is he what I think he is, I don't know, the proof is in the puddin, the puddin has not yet been eaten and I can know what it tastes like till I consume it.

High, he is a very interesting part, how ready will he be, many feel he will not be much more than Shaver was last season in his first year, I think he is considerable more able than that. I think he can handle a lot of the Bacot back up minutes, not saying 10mins a game, those back up 5 spot minutes will be shared but High should get a chance to show what he can do, how that goes nobody knows.

Ingram/Wojick, I think Ingram should be our starting 3 and Withers as our starting 4, most of late seem to disagree but where does Ingram end up playing? Most seem to want us to go small with Ryan start at the 3 and Ingram at the 4, I am not totally opposed to this notion, it is small ball and I simply do not think starting out in small is a great idea, I prefer it to be a change up in game decision to make the defense have something else to have to figure out. I think Wojick is fully able to give us punch as the back up for Ingram at the 4 but he is a very different look than Ingram for a defender.

Wilcher, does he hit the ground running or does he hit the freshman wall and stick to it? He is a combo, now with Cadeau I see him exclusively at the 2, could steal a minute or 2 at the 3. I don't expect him to shoot real well as a freshman but if he does to go along with the rest of his game, much like Seth his minutes will have to be there, that 2 spot is pretty crowded with big time talent.

And yes, even Cadeau. WE are expecting Cadeau to come in day 1 and be the magic man, pulling dimes out of hat, making even opposing senior college PGs look like children, tall order, can he or is he mortal? LOL The keys will be handed over to his kid, it has to take him some time to adjust, a ton was expected of Cole as well and that didn't work out due to injury. Of course back comes the who backs up Cadeau question, is it RJ or maybe Seth, I want it to be Seth but I am over RJ as a PG, many are not. But how that combination plays out will modify PT.

Hubert Davis, I and anyone else can sit here and assume a lot of things, I will share what I think should happen but last season was classic proof that what I think should happen and Hubert's decisions on what he wants to happen can be very different. I think we should really amp up tempo and get out in those classic UNC breaks that have been MIA for 2 seasons now and I think that means going deep in the bench, a thing so far Hubert has elected to NOT do. If he decides, similar to the last 2 seasons to basically go with 6 guys and play most of those 6 out of position then throw out any speculation of PT. But if he is smart and realizes he has bench that can go a full 10 deep of guys that he has to find minutes for then awsome but projected minutes depend on this questions answer and the answer can not come till the games are played.

 

[DSouthr]

We may yet add a player(s). Are we this desperate for offseason things to discuss? Perhaps these pure conjecture threads are getting too numerous.

Yeah, but there is so much down time in the off season, especially when our recruiting is for the most part done for next season, conjecture is about all there is to talk about. Beats the heck out of a board war, we are likely due for another one of those Oh joy...LOL So far all we have had was a few dust ups, about time for a juicey one to explode, dang I hope I am not involved with it! LOL Now that the Cadeau reclass question has been put to bed ground may be fertile for the squabbles to escalate, I hope that doesn't happen but we al know how this place can get, it is usually quiet before a storm! LOL

 

[Archer2]

Well, you are opinionated but you alway attempt to explain why you may dissent. That’s fair. In general, I think we get along pretty well here. BTTT, I hope none of our starters play more than 32 MPG. That keeps legs fresh for the final stretch and enables more aggressive defense, perhaps multiple defenses if Hubert is so inclined? If Cadeau plays that many minutes, and I hope he does, I think we’ll have fewer games where we start off sorta going through the motions and getting behind early. I’d love to see a regular rotation of 8-9 players.

 

[DSouthr]

Well, you are opinionated but you alway attempt to explain why you may dissent. That’s fair. In general, I think we get along pretty well here. BTTT, I hope none of our starters play more than 32 MPG. That keeps legs fresh for the final stretch and enables more aggressive defense, perhaps multiple defenses if Hubert is so inclined? If Cadeau plays that many minutes, and I hope he does, I think we’ll have fewer games where we start off sorta going through the motions and getting behind early. I’d love to see a regular rotation of 8-9 players.

LOL, I try arch ! I can't really speak to how things go down on other places, I tried IC a few times but that place is a zoo that I really did not enjoy.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Withers, in what now seems like the minority opinion that I hold, I think Withers is or at least should be a starter

You and I may be the only ones left thinking this way. But if you look at my table, although I have Ingram starting at SF with Withers starting at PF, I also have Ingram playing nearly half his minutes at PF as the primary backup for that position.

The reason I do it that way, is that I have Cormac Ryan coming off the bench as RJ's primary backup at SG and ALSO as Ingram's primary backup at PF. That way I maximize the PT for Ryan, who eveybody seems to think we want on the floor for starter minutes - which I say with confidence because most everybody else has him starting.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I hope none of our starters play more than 32 MPG.

TOTALLY agree.

Sure that could happen in some difficult games, but it definitely should not be norm or even very frequent.

We have a much better bench. Heck, we have 6 guys who started last year for us or for their previous team! Plus Seth, who got good experience as a frosh. Washington could turn into a star. And I don't see how you can keep a talent like Wilcher on the bench.

All that remains to be seen is whether Hubert is willing to trust them.

 

[ChiShankCity]

You and I may be the only ones left thinking this way. But if you look at my table, although I have Ingram starting at SF with Withers starting at PF, I also have Ingram playing nearly half his minutes at PF as the primary backup for that position.

The reason I do it that way, is that I have Cormac Ryan coming off the bench as RJ's primary backup at SG and ALSO as Ingram's primary backup at PF. That way I maximize the PT for Ryan, who eveybody seems to think we want on the floor for starter minutes - which I say with confidence because most everybody else has him starting.

Man, if you all think we’re good enough to put good shooting on the bench, we’re going to be amazing.

I don’t think we’re good enough to put good shooting (good high volume shooting) on the bench. Not after the season of clanks last season.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Man, if you all think we’re good enough to put good shooting on the bench, we’re going to be amazing.

I don’t think we’re good enough to put good shooting (good high volume shooting) on the bench. Not after the season of clanks last season.

Somebody has to be on the bench. Who are you referring to?

 

[ACokeForRoy]

I think most minutes will be given based on opponent matchups which makes this hard to project. Hubert doesn't have a set rotation/minutes the way Roy and Dean did.

 

[Archer2]

Somebody has to be on the bench. Who are you referring to?n

Cormac, I believe. Whether we start smaller(w/ Cormac) and then go bigger(w/ Withers), or vice versa, we should see a good bit of both. Shooting was a glaring weakness of last year’s team so I can see Jung’s point. I tend to think Hubert will start Cormac in order to put another very experienced perimeter player on the floor with Cadeau. But who knows? I do think Withers will pleasantly surprise in an offense with a good assist guy. I foresee some awesome lobs for dunks this year.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Somebody has to be on the bench. Who are you referring to?

Cormac, I believe. Whether we start smaller(w/ Cormac) and then go bigger(w/ Withers), or vice versa, we should see a good bit of both. Shooting was a glaring weakness of last year’s team so I can see Jung’s point. I tend to think Hubert will start Cormac in order to put another very experienced perimeter player on the floor with Cadeau. But who knows? I do think Withers will pleasantly surprise in an offense with a good assist guy. I foresee some awesome lobs for dunks this year.

If Cormac is one of our 2 best shooters then he needs to start. The only way I would consider not starting him is if Withers is a 40% 3PT shooter on 4 attempts per game. Cormac and RJ are the only two players who we're pretty confident will shoot a lot of 3's and will make a good percentage of them. I don't get how you leave Cormac on the bench then.

And this isn't me being against Withers starting. Hell, I would consider starting Cormac over Harrison Ingram. But I don't think that will be a consideration.

 

[dtodd4475]

It's guesswork but I will play with estimates.

Mando 33
RJ 32
Cadeau 28
Ingram 27
Ryan 23
Washington/Withers 30
Wilcher/Trimble 25
Wojcik/High 1 or 2

 

[gary-7]

Nope

All I'll add is that Cadeau should lead in minutes, as that wouild indicate two vital things:
1. That he learns quickly to stay outta foul trouble, and
2. Hubert has the common sense to hand him the keys

 

[ChiShankCity]

All I'll add is that Cadeau should lead in minutes, as that wouild indicate two vital things:
1. That he learns quickly to stay outta foul trouble, and
2. Hubert has the common sense to hand him the keys

Unless Seth makes a gigantic leap offensively, or is significantly better defensively than Cadeau, I tend to think Cadeau will play big minutes. Like 30-32 (not sure why 30 has become a magic number).

 

[dtodd4475]

Makes sense for Cadeau to get big minutes. Not sure if he will start off getting that many though, but as the only pure point, if he fully acclamates quickly his minutes should show that. Toward the middle to the end of the year game minutes may indeed have Cadeau logging the most in those.

I do think Mando and RJ will start the year getting the full minute load they are expected to have throughout. Hence my guess that they will have the highest averages in total for the year.

Heck, practices haven't even begun. Plenty of chances to see who or what combinations mesh with all the new faces. Should be interesting.

 

[alabamaheel]

Unless Seth makes a gigantic leap offensively, or is significantly better defensively than Cadeau, I tend to think Cadeau will play big minutes. Like 30-32 (not sure why 30 has become a magic number).

I have no idea why but I almost look to be pleasantly surprised by Seth this year. I don’t think he’ll automatically become a knockdown shooter but I do know he showed flashes last year of getting to some of his familiar spots on the floor and scoring with ease. Grant it they were few and far between but I believe he’s got the ability. He just needs the timing of when and where , which can come with age and experience.

 

[DSouthr]

Man, if you all think we’re good enough to put good shooting on the bench, we’re going to be amazing.

I don’t think we’re good enough to put good shooting (good high volume shooting) on the bench. Not after the season of clanks last season.

Man, if you think it is light enough that we don't need the sun to come up tomorrow I would find THAT amazing? I don't think it is light enough for the sun to not come up tomorrow, especially when it did not come out last night...

The above is a ridicules statement to make, just as is the one quoted. It is like saying we should have had Walton on the floor for 40mins season before last ONLY BECAUSE he was a good shooter, never mind the fact that was the ONLY aspect of the game he gave us? It is what is called a straw man argument, means nothing but it is the only way the writer can make the point he wants to make, by making up a counter argument that makes no sense. Wow, I guess Leaky Black just should have never played in his what, 5yrs at UNC?

if you need to make the case that you feel Withers can not shoot or that Ingram can not produce from the 3 spot then make that case but don't just toss out this silly Pablum and expect it to be gobbled up, meaning, if you are going to make an argument then make an argument that at very least appears to come from someone over the age of 10...

 

[DSouthr]

If Cormac is one of our 2 best shooters then he needs to start. The only way I would consider not starting him is if Withers is a 40% 3PT shooter on 4 attempts per game. Cormac and RJ are the only two players who we're pretty confident will shoot a lot of 3's and will make a good percentage of them. I don't get how you leave Cormac on the bench then.

And this isn't me being against Withers starting. Hell, I would consider starting Cormac over Harrison Ingram. But I don't think that will be a consideration.

How do you know that Ryan is one of our 2 best shooters for this UNC basketball team? Common sense should tell anyone that what Ryan did last season was within a very dynamic than what UNC had, different team, different approach on both sides of the ball, different team mates. This actually has NOTHING at all to do with what type of fit that Ryan had at GT, Withers had at Lville, Ingram had at USC, or Wojick had in the Ivey league. It actually has EVERYTHING to do with how they will all fit together at UNC along with the returnees and what APPROACH (hey, give me cred for not saying system) Hubert takes.

We are NOT talking about individual players, individual players stats from last season, we are talking about how they fit together, not what they did separately. Did you not learn that watching Nance play or did you feel he played great last season? Honestly Jung, much of the time I reply to you I am half heartedly joking with you but not this time, if I have to explain to you why how a player fits is more important than any stat you associate with that player then you should not be acting like you understand this game, seriously. This is not a video game dude, you post as if it were...

1 question, in how many of our national title teams did we feature a 3pt shooter that averaged 40% for the season in treys? I have not even attempted to look so you fill me in?

 

[gary-7]

I have no idea why but I almost look to be pleasantly surprised by Seth this year. I don’t think he’ll automatically become a knockdown shooter but I do know he showed flashes last year of getting to some of his familiar spots on the floor and scoring with ease. Grant it they were few and far between but I believe he’s got the ability. He just needs the timing of when and where , which can come with age and experience.

What I have always liked about Seth is that, even though it does NOT come naturally, he is obviously trying to do things right when he plays Point. Watching and practicing against Cadeau will be a lesson in and of itself.

I've also heard he has put in work on his shot, so hopefully he can provide backup minutes in the backcourt without opponents just backing off him.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Man, if you think it is light enough that we don't need the sun to come up tomorrow I would find THAT amazing? I don't think it is light enough for the sun to not come up tomorrow, especially when it did not come out last night...

The above is a ridicules statement to make, just as is the one quoted. It is like saying we should have had Walton on the floor for 40mins season before last ONLY BECAUSE he was a good shooter, never mind the fact that was the ONLY aspect of the game he gave us? It is what is called a straw man argument, means nothing but it is the only way the writer can make the point he wants to make, by making up a counter argument that makes no sense. Wow, I guess Leaky Black just should have never played in his what, 5yrs at UNC?

if you need to make the case that you feel Withers can not shoot or that Ingram can not produce from the 3 spot then make that case but don't just toss out this silly Pablum and expect it to be gobbled up, meaning, if you are going to make an argument then make an argument that at very least appears to come from someone over the age of 10...

Well, I do think Kerwin had to play as a freshman because that team was so poor shooting the 3. But no, obviously I take into account what a player can or cannot do. I'm not expecting Cormac to be a 0 defensively. And I'm absolutely factoring in fit. Don't know what Leaky has to do with this. He had barely any competition at the wing the last 2-3 years.

I don't think Ingram will be a good shooter. Decent sample size and a career 31% 3PT shooter. Decent sample size and a career 62% FT shooter. I'm going to say that shooting is not his strength. Maybe those numbers get better with a better team and better guards. But I don't think we're looking at a 35%+ 3PT shooter. If that makes me a 10 year old, ok then?????

How do you know that Ryan is one of our 2 best shooters for this UNC basketball team? Common sense should tell anyone that what Ryan did last season was within a very dynamic than what UNC had, different team, different approach on both sides of the ball, different team mates. This actually has NOTHING at all to do with what type of fit that Ryan had at GT, Withers had at Lville, Ingram had at USC, or Wojick had in the Ivey league. It actually has EVERYTHING to do with how they will all fit together at UNC along with the returnees and what APPROACH (hey, give me cred for not saying system) Hubert takes.

We are NOT talking about individual players, individual players stats from last season, we are talking about how they fit together, not what they did separately. Did you not learn that watching Nance play or did you feel he played great last season? Honestly Jung, much of the time I reply to you I am half heartedly joking with you but not this time, if I have to explain to you why how a player fits is more important than any stat you associate with that player then you should not be acting like you understand this game, seriously. This is not a video game dude, you post as if it were...

1 question, in how many of our national title teams did we feature a 3pt shooter that averaged 40% for the season in treys? I have not even attempted to look so you fill me in?

How do I know? I guess I don't know for sure but that's a weird question. It's an educated guess? High volume 3PT shooter who has shot 34/40/34 the last 3 seasons and a career 80% FT shooter. It leads me to believe he could be a good shooter. There was a point last year where RJ was shooting worse than Caleb I believe. I think it was safe to assume that RJ was going to have positive regression because he'd never been worse than a 32% shooter. We didn't know if Caleb would or not because he had a season where he shot 27% from 3. But how do you know????? lol. It was an educated guess.

And who says I'm talking about all individual players/stats? How do you know that I'm not factoring in fit. Why do you think I'm saying that I think Cormac Ryan starting with Harrison Ingram coming off the bench might be the best option? Could it be because I see Cadeau having the ball in his hands, Bacot needing the ball in his hands, and RJ needing the ball in his hands. So maybe having 2 players that don't need the ball in their hands to be productive (Cormac and Withers) might be the best option. Then have Ingram off the bench to hunt matchups or get him against opposing backups. If Ingram is in the starting lineup (which I think he will be), I honestly don't think that's a great fit. They may figure it out though.

I'll defend myself on the Nance stuff. I think I was more lukewarm on him than most. I was worried about his inconsistent shooting numbers year-to-year. I was also worried that he was a stat stuffer on a really bad team. And I also said countless times that Manek was irreplaceable.

2005 players to shoot over 40% from 3:
- Felton 44% (4.4 3PA)
- Marvin Williams 43% (1.2 3PA, smaller sample)
- McCants 42% (5.1 3PA)

2009:
- Lawson 47% (3.1 3PA)
- Green 42% (4.8 3PA)
- Ellington 42% (5.4 3PA)

2017:
- Maye 40% (1.1 3PA, smaller sample)
Close:
- Berry 38% (6.1 3PA)
- Jackson 37% (7.1 3PA)

Yea, no kidding fits important. I never said it wasn't, lol. But you better have some dudes who shoot a bunch of 3's and can make them at a good rate. Those things are also connected. Great shooters are typically easier to play with.

 

[gary-7]

Well, I do think Kerwin had to play as a freshman because that team was so poor shooting the 3. But no, obviously I take into account what a player can or cannot do. I'm not expecting Cormac to be a 0 defensively. And I'm absolutely factoring in fit. Don't know what Leaky has to do with this. He had barely any competition at the wing the last 2-3 years.

Yikes. Bad memories triggered --- the fact that Kerwin ever started a game here is a sad reminder of where things were at that point.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Yikes. Bad memories triggered --- the fact that Kerwin ever started a game here is a sad reminder of where things were at that point.

We better have some shooting, or Kerwin Walton's are going to have to play. lol

 

[alabamaheel]

What I have always liked about Seth is that, even though it does NOT come naturally, he is obviously trying to do things right when he plays Point. Watching and practicing against Cadeau will be a lesson in and of itself.

I've also heard he has put in work on his shot, so hopefully he can provide backup minutes in the backcourt without opponents just backing off him.

That would be a plus for sure

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If Cormac is one of our 2 best shooters then he needs to start. The only way I would consider not starting him is if Withers is a 40% 3PT shooter on 4 attempts per game. Cormac and RJ are the only two players who we're pretty confident will shoot a lot of 3's and will make a good percentage of them. I don't get how you leave Cormac on the bench then.

And this isn't me being against Withers starting. Hell, I would consider starting Cormac over Harrison Ingram. But I don't think that will be a consideration.

The reason I don't share this view is because I'm thinking of who's on the floor when starters go to the bench.

As I've tried to outline in other posts, I think if we start our SF/PF combo with Ryan/Ingram that ends up Ryan playing more minutes at SF, whereas if he comes off the bench as the primary back up at both SG and SF, then he'll play at least as many minutes but more of them will be at SG, where he is at his best, imo.

So . . . same minutes but better fit. Of course I could be wrong.

I suspect you're thinking him coming off the bench means he plays fewer minutes, but that's not what I'm calling for.

 

[DSouthr]

Well, I do think Kerwin had to play as a freshman because that team was so poor shooting the 3. But no, obviously I take into account what a player can or cannot do. I'm not expecting Cormac to be a 0 defensively. And I'm absolutely factoring in fit. Don't know what Leaky has to do with this. He had barely any competition at the wing the last 2-3 years.

I don't think Ingram will be a good shooter. Decent sample size and a career 31% 3PT shooter. Decent sample size and a career 62% FT shooter. I'm going to say that shooting is not his strength. Maybe those numbers get better with a better team and better guards. But I don't think we're looking at a 35%+ 3PT shooter. If that makes me a 10 year old, ok then?????


How do I know? I guess I don't know for sure but that's a weird question. It's an educated guess? High volume 3PT shooter who has shot 34/40/34 the last 3 seasons and a career 80% FT shooter. It leads me to believe he could be a good shooter. There was a point last year where RJ was shooting worse than Caleb I believe. I think it was safe to assume that RJ was going to have positive regression because he'd never been worse than a 32% shooter. We didn't know if Caleb would or not because he had a season where he shot 27% from 3. But how do you know????? lol. It was an educated guess.

And who says I'm talking about all individual players/stats? How do you know that I'm not factoring in fit. Why do you think I'm saying that I think Cormac Ryan starting with Harrison Ingram coming off the bench might be the best option? Could it be because I see Cadeau having the ball in his hands, Bacot needing the ball in his hands, and RJ needing the ball in his hands. So maybe having 2 players that don't need the ball in their hands to be productive (Cormac and Withers) might be the best option. Then have Ingram off the bench to hunt matchups or get him against opposing backups. If Ingram is in the starting lineup (which I think he will be), I honestly don't think that's a great fit. They may figure it out though.

I'll defend myself on the Nance stuff. I think I was more lukewarm on him than most. I was worried about his inconsistent shooting numbers year-to-year. I was also worried that he was a stat stuffer on a really bad team. And I also said countless times that Manek was irreplaceable.

2005 players to shoot over 40% from 3:
- Felton 44% (4.4 3PA)
- Marvin Williams 43% (1.2 3PA, smaller sample)
- McCants 42% (5.1 3PA)

2009:
- Lawson 47% (3.1 3PA)
- Green 42% (4.8 3PA)
- Ellington 42% (5.4 3PA)

2017:
- Maye 40% (1.1 3PA, smaller sample)
Close:
- Berry 38% (6.1 3PA)
- Jackson 37% (7.1 3PA)

Yea, no kidding fits important. I never said it wasn't, lol. But you better have some dudes who shoot a bunch of 3's and can make them at a good rate. Those things are also connected. Great shooters are typically easier to play with.

Look, I am not in any way looking to throw shade at Ryan, I love his coming to us and think not only will he be a great addition I absolutely say he has to play good minutes. I am actually the guy that would argue that maybe we are better if Ryan actually started at the 2 over RJ, so don't think I am down on Ryan. I just do not see the need to go small when you don't have to, when you gain little from going small but it could cost you on the other end. Small ball should not be your primary look unless you have to go to that as your primary look, aka Miami last season.

There seems to be this notion that has crept in that Ingram and Withers can't shoot? That was not the thinking when they committed but somehow it has gained steam out of no where? Yet again, these guys are fits to need, we need them to hit open look jumpers that Leaky and Nance missed last season, I feel strongly they can and everything i have seen indicates they can. We need, no one seems to want to talk about this but we need to be able to set the tone for physicality from the opening tip, rather than be considered "sweet" per Bacot's words, with Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 we can play that physical brand of ball on both ends. Leaky is now gone, we are going to need to replace his great defense and Ingram fits that need far more than Ryan does. We have 2 ends of the court we have to worry about and we are already giving up length at the 2, who do that at the 3 and 4?

I think our 3 and 4 position players will get a lot of clean looks on the offensive end, I mean you can not give Cadeau free lane to the basket if he beats his primary defender, you can not cover Bacot with just 1 guy, and RJ is a known shooter so you are forced to double off Ingram or Withers, leaves them open, they never saw that with their former teams. But then they go back down and give you solid physical defense so you have both ends of the court handled, Ryan at the 3 I think give back some on the defensive end that Ingram does not from the 3.

 

[ChiShankCity]

The reason I don't share this view is because I'm thinking of who's on the floor when starters go to the bench.

As I've tried to outline in other posts, I think if we start our SF/PF combo with Ryan/Ingram that ends up Ryan playing more minutes at SF, whereas if he comes off the bench as the primary back up at both SG and SF, then he'll play at least as many minutes but more of them will be at SG, where he is at his best, imo.

So . . . same minutes but better fit. Of course I could be wrong.

I suspect you're thinking him coming off the bench means he plays fewer minutes, but that's not what I'm calling for.

Are you anticipating whole sale substitutions when we first sub? I'm expecting one or two guys to be inserted. It's a pretty easy lineup to stagger to make sure you have 2 of your best 3PT shooters on the floor at the same time. And again, we don't have the luxury (I don't think) to leave our best high volume shooters on the bench. Who does that help more? I'm guessing it helps the opposition.

Also, I don't know where this 30 minutes line of demarcation is coming from. The vast majority of Roy's best teams had dudes that played 30 minutes. All of the starters certainly didn't log those minutes. And certainly guys weren't playing 35 minutes. But there's no magic to playing under 30 minutes. Maybe it isn't apples to apples since Cadeau is a freshman. But don't make it seem like Roy played his starters all 25 minutes per game because he subbed a lot. He still found a way to get some of his best players to that sinful line for 30 minutes per game. And many of those teams were significantly more talented off the bench IMO.

2018-19 (1 seed):	2017-18 (1 seed):	2016-17 (Champs):	2015-16 (Runners up):	2011-12 (1 seed):	2008-09 (Champs):	2007-08 (1 seed):	2006-07 (1 seed):	2004-05 (Champs):
Luke Maye 30.9 MPG	Berry 33 MPG	Justin Jackson 32 MPG	Paige 31.6 MPG	Marshall 33 MPG	Ellington 30.4 MPG	Hansbrough: 33 MPG	Hansbrough 29.9 MPG	Felton: 31.7 MPG
Kenny Williams 30 MPG	Maye 32 MPG	Berry 30.4 MPG	Berry 30.7 MPG	Barnes 29.2 MPG	Hansbrough 30.3 MPG	Ellington: 31 MPG
Cam Johnson 29.9 MPG	Kenny Williams 31.1 MPG			Henson 29.1 MPG	Lawson 29.9 MPG
	Theo Pinson 29.7 MPG

2010-11 (2 seed):
No one played 30 MPG, but numbers were skewed because Marshall came off the bench 1/3 of the season

 

[alabamaheel]

Look, I am not in any way looking to throw shade at Ryan, I love his coming to us and think not only will he be a great addition I absolutely say he has to play good minutes. I am actually the guy that would argue that maybe we are better if Ryan actually started at the 2 over RJ, so don't think I am down on Ryan. I just do not see the need to go small when you don't have to, when you gain little from going small but it could cost you on the other end. Small ball should not be your primary look unless you have to go to that as your primary look, aka Miami last season.

There seems to be this notion that has crept in that Ingram and Withers can't shoot? That was not the thinking when they committed but somehow it has gained steam out of no where? Yet again, these guys are fits to need, we need them to hit open look jumpers that Leaky and Nance missed last season, I feel strongly they can and everything i have seen indicates they can. We need, no one seems to want to talk about this but we need to be able to set the tone for physicality from the opening tip, rather than be considered "sweet" per Bacot's words, with Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 we can play that physical brand of ball on both ends. Leaky is now gone, we are going to need to replace his great defense and Ingram fits that need far more than Ryan does. We have 2 ends of the court we have to worry about and we are already giving up length at the 2, who do that at the 3 and 4?

I think our 3 and 4 position players will get a lot of clean looks on the offensive end, I mean you can not give Cadeau free lane to the basket if he beats his primary defender, you can not cover Bacot with just 1 guy, and RJ is a known shooter so you are forced to double off Ingram or Withers, leaves them open, they never saw that with their former teams. But then they go back down and give you solid physical defense so you have both ends of the court handled, Ryan at the 3 I think give back some on the defensive end that Ingram does not from the 3.

Idk about gaining little going small. If and I say if EC can run a team and play point like several on here claim, then having RJ and Ryan to kick to and create for will be killer. I’d love to get back to the Roy days when defense was an afterthought only because if our opponent didn’t score in the 80s we were gonna torch that butt.
Run and gun after made baskets, control tempo. I can see it now but most on here have blamed our pg play. I on the other hand think it’s partly because on our lack of the type of bigs we need. Run the floor and be ready. We can have Elliot dominate and get up the court but if the bigs aren’t there to pass ahead to then it’s stagnated half court all over again. Just my thoughts.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Are you anticipating whole sale substitutions when we first sub? I'm expecting one or two guys to be inserted. It's a pretty easy lineup to stagger to make sure you have 2 of your best 3PT shooters on the floor at the same time. And again, we don't have the luxury (I don't think) to leave our best high volume shooters on the bench. Who does that help more? I'm guessing it helps the opposition.

Also, I don't know where this 30 minutes line of demarcation is coming from. The vast majority of Roy's best teams had dudes that played 30 minutes. All of the starters certainly didn't log those minutes. And certainly guys weren't playing 35 minutes. But there's no magic to playing under 30 minutes. Maybe it isn't apples to apples since Cadeau is a freshman. But don't make it seem like Roy played his starters all 25 minutes per game because he subbed a lot. He still found a way to get some of his best players to that sinful line for 30 minutes per game. And many of those teams were significantly more talented off the bench IMO.

2018-19 (1 seed):	2017-18 (1 seed):	2016-17 (Champs):	2015-16 (Runners up):	2011-12 (1 seed):	2008-09 (Champs):	2007-08 (1 seed):	2006-07 (1 seed):	2004-05 (Champs):
Luke Maye 30.9 MPG	Berry 33 MPG	Justin Jackson 32 MPG	Paige 31.6 MPG	Marshall 33 MPG	Ellington 30.4 MPG	Hansbrough: 33 MPG	Hansbrough 29.9 MPG	Felton: 31.7 MPG
Kenny Williams 30 MPG	Maye 32 MPG	Berry 30.4 MPG	Berry 30.7 MPG	Barnes 29.2 MPG	Hansbrough 30.3 MPG	Ellington: 31 MPG
Cam Johnson 29.9 MPG	Kenny Williams 31.1 MPG			Henson 29.1 MPG	Lawson 29.9 MPG
	Theo Pinson 29.7 MPG

2010-11 (2 seed):
No one played 30 MPG, but numbers were skewed because Marshall came off the bench 1/3 of the season

Thanks for doing that work for us.

 

[ChiShankCity]

There seems to be this notion that has crept in that Ingram and Withers can't shoot? That was not the thinking when they committed but somehow it has gained steam out of no where? Yet again, these guys are fits to need, we need them to hit open look jumpers that Leaky and Nance missed last season, I feel strongly they can and everything i have seen indicates they can.

	Ingram 2022	Ingram 2023	Withers 2021	Withers 2022	Withers 2023
Far 2PT %	33.7%	37.5%	39.4%	33.3%	34.2%
3PT %	31.3%	31.9%	38.1%	23.4%	41.7%
FT %	66.3%	59.8%	67.9%	66.7%	73.5%
			Small Sample

It isn't a notion that Harrison Ingram can't shoot. Through 2 seasons at Stanford, while playing starter minutes, he hasn't shot the ball well from any level. His non-paint 2PT percentage was pretty average last year and below average in 2022. His FT percentage was also bad. So through two seasons, he's shown he isn't a good shooter. What circumstances went into that? Probably a few. So maybe it isn't apples to apples, but it isn't a notion. It's what he's shown so far.

Withers is far more an unknown. He's had really a really good 3PT shooting season and a really bad 3PT shooting season and he's a relatively low volume 3PT shooter. So it's harder to project him. A lot like Pete Nance below. It turned out his 2022 season was a drastic outlier from 3. From a percentage standpoint, his numbers last year basically aligned with his usual season at Northwestern. Elite mid range shooter, inconsistent 3PT shooter.

Withers and Ingram absolutely fit needs. But Ingram's shooting is a big question mark. But he can do other things so it may not be as impactful if he's a poor shooter. Withers is a variable. Does he add a ton of value if he doesn't end up shooting the ball well? As of now, that depends how you look at him as a player.

For comparison:

	Love 2023	Nance 2023	Nance 2022 NW	Nance 2021 NW	Nance 2020 NW
Far 2PT %	38.0%	46.7%	46.0%	47.1%	36.6%
3PT %	29.9%	32.0%	45.7%	34.4%	29.7%
FT %	76.5%	81.6%	76.3%	77.1%	68.6%

I put Caleb Love's splits in there too. Everyone would agree that he had a shooting season from absolute hell last year. And it isn't apples to apples with Ingram because Ingram isn't the high volume 3PT shooter like Caleb was. But as far as raw percentages, Ingram's matches up with Caleb quite a bit. He won't be as detrimental as Caleb was if he shoots poorly. He won't shoot that much volume.

(bolded all the 2023 because I messed up the ordering of seasons)

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I've revamped my OP projection as a result of the Wilcher decommit. I only had Wilcher getting 10 min, which I divided between Seth and Paxson.

Starters in bold.

Player	@ PG	@ SG	@ SF	@ PF	@ C	Total
Cadeau	28*	--	--	--	--	28
RJ	10	18*	--	--	--	28
Seth	2	6	--	--	--	8
Cormac	--	10	17	--	--	27
Paxson	--	4	6	--	--	10
Harrison	--	--	15*	13	--	28
Withers	--	--	2	21*	5	28
Washington	--	--	--	6	5	11
Armando	--	--	--	--	27*	27
High	--	--	--	--	3	3

* Starter at this position

 

[DSouthr]

Nobody is going to take a stab at this?

Just reply to my post and fill in your own numbers.

It's hard. We have too many good players to give them all the number of minutes we might think they deserve.

You have to ask yourself who you want on the floor the most, and with whom.

For example, I have RJ starting at SG. But there are 4 other guys who could play at that position: Ryan, Wilcher, Wojcik and Trimble.

By having RJ back up at point, I free up a bunch of SG minutes for those guys. But that, in turn, cuts into Trimble's (and maybe Wilcher's) minutes backing up at point. Which I justify to myself by saying that the team will be better off with Cormac Ryan at SG than with Seth at PG.

When I kind of down played trying to project who plays where and for how many minutes, it was in large part because I was very concerned that we could well have another fall out, simply because the minutes just are not there to spread around to all those guards that would keep them happy. All I had heard was that Seth has taken all of this in and elected to just put his head down and grind concerned only in becoming the best player he can be where others were doing mental gymnastics of minutes they may see available. I had to wonder about Wilcher, where were his minutes going to come from, would he accept 5mins or so a game, hard to believe that he would and he was being shuffled deeper and deeper off the ball, like Seth was last season, how was he going to be OK with that?

I was trying to say hold up, there may be another shoe or 2 to drop and a pretty big shoe dropped yesterday. Wilcher gone means Seth's position is more secure than it was with Wilcher coming in so I don't expect anything to change now with Seth. I do think it secured Wojick more PT at the 3, maybe a few more minutes for Ryan at the 3, it cleans the rotations up a little bit, easier to now reasonably spread the love more.

 

[dtodd4475]

It's guesswork but I will play with estimates.

Mando 33
RJ 32
Cadeau 28
Ingram 27
Ryan 23
Washington/Withers 30
Wilcher/Trimble 25
Wojcik/High 1 or 2

With Wilcher's departure my guesstimations would increase for Ryan and Cadeau mainly, and give Wojcik a chance at some minutes since I guessed Wilcher and Trimble to split about 25.

In retrospect I don't know if 25 per was a bit much anyway. Maybe depending on need for game it would be a Trimble 10 or 12 or Wilcher 10 or 12, but probably not both.

Of the possible 12-13 minutes I would guess Ryan bumps up 6, Cadaeu 3 or 4, Wojcik 2 or 3

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

With Wilcher's departure my guesstimations would increase for Ryan and Cadeau mainly, and give Wojcik a chance at some minutes since I guessed Wilcher and Trimble to split about 25.

In retrospect I don't know if 25 per was a bit much anyway. Maybe depending on need for game it would be a Trimble 10 or 12 or Wilcher 10 or 12, but probably not both.

Of the possible 12-13 minutes I would guess Ryan bumps up 6, Cadaeu 3 or 4, Wojcik 2 or 3

Most of us don't think much of Wojcik. Too hard to spell, I guess. We might not be giving him enough credit. Time will tell. Based on hardly anything, I have a good feeling about him.

 

[DSouthr]

Most of us don't think much of Wojcik. Too hard to spell, I guess. We might not be giving him enough credit. Time will tell. Based on hardly anything, I have a good feeling about him.

I like Wojcik but yeah, I am gonna murder the spelling his name for sure, not by intent! I actually like the kid, from what I can tell he seems like a strong leader, may not be the greatest talent we have had but he is a grinder and he plays hard, I like guys like that, I think he can shoot it solid enough as well for me to not have now but have had him as my primary back up for Ingram at the 3, maybe splitting the back up minutes there with Ryan (Ryan should now be the clear primary back up for RJ at the 2 as well as a couple minutes at the 3).

I think the concern most have with the kid is he comes to us from the Ivey league, not exactly a hot bed of college basketball talent?

 

[ChiShankCity]

I think the concern most have with the kid is he comes to us from the Ivey league, not exactly a hot bed of college basketball talent?

This past Final Four was made up of kids who transferred from nowhere. That Nowell kid from Kansas State was at Arkansas Little Rock? Have to see how Wojcik adapts and what he can and can't do.

Big year for Trimble. A much improved Trimble could change a lot of things in a good way for us. Opportunity is there for him. At least he wants to be at UNC (as of now, knowing how quickly these things can change... lol).