Post facto stuff (Louisville game)...

[gary-7]

...and I was too pissed to write anything last might, so this'll be a bit different.

First, nobody in the program who made that trip had a net-positive grade. Literally the only thing worse than Teddy & company's clown-show was UNC's performance. Let the record show, the problem is NOT what the players are doing wrong as much as the fact that is hasn't been corrected. Thus, instead of another rinse-and-repeat synposis, consider this an open notebook to the coaching staff:

So guys... I forced myself to rewatch that mess and made notes that, if I was coaching, would be corrected in detail at the next film session. Do with it as you will...

- Forces: There were easily 10 forced shots that ended up with nothing. Guys, that's not a new thing...

- We ran the Secondary (sort of) correctly exactly 3 times
* pitch-ahead down sideline (!!!) - lay-up 2
* rim-run (!!!) by a wide-open Tyson who was ignored by RJ (who had his head down) - miss
* dump pass to post (!!!) - lay-up 2

- We ran the Secondary incorrectly MULTIPLE times with one made 3, a pull-up 2 and SEVERAL misses to show for them

- While the game was still competitive we scrambled once (44) - forced a timeout.

- Over-switching caused communication breakdowns on several occasions

- 7 missed obvious post entry-pass opportunites

- But when we DID get it to the post, this happened:
* side-entry for 2 -Wash
* kick-out for 3 -Lubin to Ian
* and-1 - 2 + FT made -Wash
* miss (caused by uncalled foul) -Wash
* PnR for 2 -Wash
* miss, but foul picked up on offensive rebound - 1/2 FT made -Lubin/Ian
* foul (before shot) -Lubin
* repost - in/out/in for 2 -Lubin
* missed jump-hook - Wash
* backdoor from point - dunk 2 -Withers
* PnR missed dunk -Lubin

- Additionally, we scored multiple times on VERTICAL action, e.g., back-doors to perimter guys, snap passes from the point to cutters, drives from the top. In fact, we scored the vast majority of our points when we went north-south, and precious few off east-west actions.

- In stark contrast, too much of our "offense" in crunch time consisted of guys running in semi-circles for 20 seconds and then playing 1-on-1 --- mostly ineffectively.

- Finally, if your system is working, we shouldn't hafta shoot our way past Louisville. Glaring thing is, we aren't set up to survive bad shooting nights. Moreover, you're turning the guy with the bandaged shooting hand into a ball-stopper.

So... there ya go, fellas. Personally, I'd suggest correcting the mistakes, but mostly doing more of what tends to work and less of what doesn't. But, hey, maybe that's just me...

 

[Kool1234567]

...and I was too pissed to write anything last might, so this'll be a bit different.

First, nobody in the program who made that trip had a net-positive grade. Literally the only thing worse than Teddy & company's clown-show was UNC's performance. Let the record show, the problem is NOT what the players are doing wrong as much as the fact that is hasn't been corrected. Thus, instead of another rinse-and-repeat synposis, consider this an open notebook to the coaching staff:

So guys... I forced myself to rewatch that mess and made notes that, if I was coaching, would be corrected in detail at the next film session. Do with it as you will...

- Forces: There were easily 10 forced shots that ended up with nothing. Guys, that's not a new thing...

- We ran the Secondary (sort of) correctly exactly 3 times
* pitch-ahead down sideline (!!!) - lay-up 2
* rim-run (!!!) by a wide-open Tyson who was ignored by RJ (who had his head down) - miss
* dump pass to post (!!!) - lay-up 2

- We ran the Secondary incorrectly MULTIPLE times with one made 3, a pull-up 2 and SEVERAL misses to show for them

- While the game was still competitive we scrambled once (44) - forced a timeout.

- Over-switching caused communication breakdowns on several occasions

- 7 missed obvious post entry-pass opportunites

- But when we DID get it to the post, this happened:
* side-entry for 2 -Wash
* kick-out for 3 -Lubin to Ian
* and-1 - 2 + FT made -Wash
* miss (caused by uncalled foul) -Wash
* PnR for 2 -Wash
* miss, but foul picked up on offensive rebound - 1/2 FT made -Lubin/Ian
* foul (before shot) -Lubin
* repost - in/out/in for 2 -Lubin
* missed jump-hook - Wash
* backdoor from point - dunk 2 -Withers
* PnR missed dunk -Lubin

- Additionally, we scored multiple times on VERTICAL action, e.g., back-doors to perimter guys, snap passes from the point to cutters, drives from the top. In fact, we scored the vast majority of our points when we went north-south, and precious few off east-west actions.

- In stark contrast, too much of our "offense" in crunch time consisted of guys running in semi-circles for 20 seconds and then playing 1-on-1 --- mostly ineffectively.

- Finally, if your system is working, we shouldn't hafta shoot our way past Louisville. Glaring thing is, we aren't set up to survive bad shooting nights. Moreover, you're turning the guy with the bandaged shooting hand into a ball-stopper.

So... there ya go, fellas. Personally, I'd suggest correcting the mistakes, but mostly doing more of what tends to work and less of what doesn't. But, hey, maybe that's just me...

So we need a PG that can shoot and be that lead Dog…I agree…Ian Jackson will be a PG in the NBA…Put EC one bench….Lets go!!!!!!!

 

[al would]

So we need a PG that can shoot and be that lead Dog…I agree…Ian Jackson will be a PG in the NBA…Put EC one bench….Lets go!!!!!!!

EC is not the problem Kool. Bigger picture thing.

 

[Kool1234567]

EC is not the problem Kool. Bigger picture thing.

You say so…But he is 1 of them…

 

[Deezheelz]

I don’t want to argue but yes EC is a problem. No lead dog mentality from our floor general, not an out side threat at all, to many turnovers and defense is atrocious. That’s a big problem!

 

[Ozheelfan]

Thanks for the write up Gary. I appreciate your loyalty but it has become more than obvious that this should be Hubert’s last run.

He is highly unlikely to make the changes you’re suggesting and is stuck without answers.

We can all hope he’d revert to the systems he played with, or watched for 9yrs on the bench, but he hasn’t and likely won’t.

If he really loves the program, he’ll let bubba know to start looking now and then gracefully step aside in March.

 

[gary-7]

So we need a PG that can shoot and be that lead Dog…I agree…Ian Jackson will be a PG in the NBA…Put EC one bench….Lets go!!!!!!!

Wow. Not even remotely close. Again... just wow.

 

[gary-7]

EC is not the problem Kool. Bigger picture thing.

x1000

 

[gary-7]

I don’t want to argue but yes EC is a problem. No lead dog mentality from our floor general, not an out side threat at all, to many turnovers and defense is atrocious. That’s a big problem!

Again, not even remotely close to reality.

 

[gary-7]

Thanks for the write up Gary. I appreciate your loyalty but it has become more than obvious that this should be Hubert’s last run.

He is highly unlikely to make the changes you’re suggesting and is stuck without answers.

We can all hope he’d revert to the systems he played with, or watched for 9yrs on the bench, but he hasn’t and likely won’t.

If he really loves the program, he’ll let bubba know to start looking now and then gracefully step aside in March.

If he continues on this counterproductove path, then sadly, yes... you are correct.

 

[39 Feet Above Sea Level]

IMO, this is the most concerning statistic at this point:

RJ is shooting 27.5% from the arc.
Last year he shot 39.8%.
In 22/23 he shot 36.2%.
In 21/22 he shot 36.7 %
In 20/21 he shot 32.3%.

Certainly, this is unexpected and troublesome.
And not the fault of the coaching staff.

 

[Bubspub88]

IMO, this is the most concerning statistic at this point:

RJ is shooting 27.5% from the arc.
Last year he shot 39.8%.
In 22/23 he shot 36.2%.
In 21/22 he shot 36.7 %
In 20/21 he shot 32.3%.

Certainly, this is unexpected and troublesome.
And not the fault of the coaching staff.

Very worrisome but I cannot give the staff a full pass. All those other seasons there were 2 or 3 other shooters on the court for an opponent to be concerned with, this year RJ has been the ONLY consistent outside threat.

Also there was a legit post presence in those other years. Defenses were more wary of keeping their balance.

The staff misjudged or missed out on the offensive talent needed to keep defenses from focusing solely on RJ.

 

[39 Feet Above Sea Level]

I hear you Bubs, RJ’s poor shooting is only one piece of our problems.
But if he shoots his freshman average, we probably win both KU and FL.
10-4 with those quad one victories is lots better than 8-6.
I’ll stop grasping at straws now. 😉

 

[tcb22]

Thanks, Gary, for not taking Roseheel's bait!

 

[DSouthr]

Thanks for the write up Gary. I appreciate your loyalty but it has become more than obvious that this should be Hubert’s last run.

He is highly unlikely to make the changes you’re suggesting and is stuck without answers.

We can all hope he’d revert to the systems he played with, or watched for 9yrs on the bench, but he hasn’t and likely won’t.

If he really loves the program, he’ll let bubba know to start looking now and then gracefully step aside in March.

There is still time to salvage this season, there is still time to STOP this individual player regression and realize just what this team is capable of. But for to happen Hubert will have to radically change what he is asking these players to do. I have withering hope that Hubert is willing to make the changes that must happen. You simply can not continue to make the exact 180 degree opposite decision on how to solve this? For example, why would any of you already having one of the smallest teams in the NCAA decide the way to handle being beaten by big men is to actually go much smaller? I would think a middle school girls team head coach would know better than that? That is just one of many coaching decisions that make no sense to me.

Clearly Hubert seems to see something that so far has not been reflected in games, at what point does he realize that maybe it isn't going to show up in games, that maybe it is time to do something different, something more akin to what Roy did, get as much length out there as you can and use it properly?

At this point, my starters would be Drake at the 3, Jack at the 2, JWit or Lubin at the 5, Jalen at the 4, and either Cadeau or RJ at the point even as much as I absolutely hate RJ at the point. Claude and Tyson would get very few minutes. That means Seth, yes my guy and the guy I believe actually has played the best so far this season would come off the bench, along with either Cadeau or RJ and Lubin or JWit. I would roll with that 8 man rotation and live with the results. Hubert is not going to do this so those of you that do not agree have that to hold on to.

 

[NathanFielder]

IMO, this is the most concerning statistic at this point:

RJ is shooting 27.5% from the arc.
Last year he shot 39.8%.
In 22/23 he shot 36.2%.
In 21/22 he shot 36.7 %
In 20/21 he shot 32.3%.

Certainly, this is unexpected and troublesome.
And not the fault of the coaching staff.

The biggest issue offensively is this is a 3PT dependent team that cannot make 3s. So RJ obviously has played an unfortunate role in that. The biggest issue for this team overall is they absolutely don't defend. They do not force turnovers (304th in the country in DEF TO%). They do not defend the 3 (231st in 3PT% D). They allow opponents to shoot a lot of 3s (249th in opponent 3PT rate).

Whether this team has the players to be good defensively? I tend to think there are massive limitations with the lack of size in the backcourt combined with a lack of rim protection. But some of the defensive strategies is puzzling. Going under and playing drop coverage against Alabama was certainly an odd choice. And UNC has never defended ball screens to my liking. I'm more of a fan of blitzing as opposed to hedging or switching. However, this is a young team in places so you probably can't have an ultra sophisticated defensive gameplan every game. And again, not having a rim protector to erase those common mistakes is proving detrimental right now.

I know others will disagree and blame it all on the coach. I just don't think the personnel matches well and is all that talented if I'm being honest. The X's and O's are lacking IMO. The bigger problem is a lack of talent evaluation by this staff.

And I know I'll be alone on this island but so be it. If you are bad defensively, which UNC is and you struggle to make 3s, I don't think playing fast is a good combination for that. This team's strength right now is their 2PT FG%. Now, they're not going to do jack sh** if they don't make 3s, let me be clear. But if their offensive strength are 2PT FGs and they can't defend... They should be playing slower and designing their scheme more towards a grind it out kind of team.

They haven't showed on film that they're good enough for 40 minutes to play at this fast tempo. Particularly defensively. IMO, slow the game down. Get to the FT line. Again, they're not doing anything of significance if they don't make 3s. But this is more how do they salvage a lost season.

 

[DSouthr]

OK, I will bite, how is not having the players that do NOT match up well not the head coaches responsibility?

Pretty sure you recall me saying pre-season, I wanted no one on this team playing over 25mins on a regular basis, more in some games fine but on average. I said that because you are not going to have a high tempo team play that way for a consistent 40mins, kids get winded. If they don't go to the bench to catch their breath they will catch it either on the offensive or defensive end of the court. Players playing long minutes simply wear down as the season progresses.

 

[Heelicious]

IMO, this is the most concerning statistic at this point:

RJ is shooting 27.5% from the arc.
Last year he shot 39.8%.
In 22/23 he shot 36.2%.
In 21/22 he shot 36.7 %
In 20/21 he shot 32.3%.

Certainly, this is unexpected and troublesome.
And not the fault of the coaching staff.

I don’t think the coaching staff gets a free pass. Did RJ somehow regress to becoming a bad shooter? No. He had front court threats like bacot and Harry last year - that took a lot of pressure off of rj so he got more open shots in previous years.

They broke down the tape on one game during a halftime on espn heels game - showing where rj had to or chose to shoot a 3 where he was closely guarded by one or two defenders.

On this team - he has to think “what are the better alternatives?”

 

[Kool1234567]

End of the day I know it’s not all on EC….He still can’t shoot for shit but I think it’s no question RJ should have been showed the door….Thats on Hubert….I know we have a thread but RJ money could have been spent on a Big….

1 EC
2 Ian
3 Seth
PF Lubin
C Portal guy

Drake off the bench 1st playing the 3…

This is not Dean Smith or Roy Williams era of College basketball….Either Hubert is going to adapt or he is going to be replaced by someone that can…



It’s a new day and you have to have a coach that can manage the roster…

 

[NathanFielder]

OK, I will bite, how is not having the players that do NOT match up well not the head coaches responsibility?

Pretty sure you recall me saying pre-season, I wanted no one on this team playing over 25mins on a regular basis, more in some games fine but on average. I said that because you are not going to have a high tempo team play that way for a consistent 40mins, kids get winded. If they don't go to the bench to catch their breath they will catch it either on the offensive or defensive end of the court. Players playing long minutes simply wear down as the season progresses.

I said it's his fault that he and the staff didn't evaluate talent well this season.

Where you and I firmly disagree is the level of quality and depth on this roster. I've said before that this team is really 5 deep, then 1 big because you have to play a big (Cadeau, RJ, Seth, Ian, Drake, then fill in a big). If you think the solution is that everyone plays 15-25 minutes, that's fine. I just don't think there's enough quality on this roster for everyone to play minutes.

But the bigger point is this team is really bad defensively and that's despite them playing at the 5th fastest pace in the country.. They rank 35th overall per KenPom. Amongst the top 40 teams in KenPom, UNC has the third worst adjusted defensive efficiency. So if playing fast is connected to their defense, it hasn't shown at least in those numbers. Maybe you can argue that UNC has played better in the second half of a lot of these games and that's because they play fast? Idk, seems like a stretch to me.

Also, the top 6 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency all rank in the 200s in tempo. Of the top 30 ranked adjust defensive efficiency teams, ONE ranks in the top 20 in tempo. 14 of them rank 200 or slower in tempo.

So at least this season, there's 0 evidence that a faster pace leads to a better defense.

And there also isn't a ton of evidence that shows teams that don't play a ton of guys automatically wear down at the end of the season. Correlation doesn't equal causation but all 4 teams in the 2022 Final Four ranked in the 300s in their bench minutes. For your 15 minutes/game example, that's 37.5% of minutes in a 40 minute game. UConn had 7 guys play 37.5% of available minutes last year, 6 guys the year before. Baylor played 8.

And all of those 2022 Final Four teams, those 2 UConn teams, and the Baylor team was substantially better than this UNC team yet they didn't play everyone X number of minutes. I mean, this has been proven that typically the best teams in the country play fewer guys, especially later in the season.

 

[al would]

No lead dog mentality from our floor general, not an out side threat at all, to many turnovers and defense is atrocious.

I think in order to be a lead dog and have that mentality a concerted effort needs to be made to make sure everyone on the team is on the same page and they actually make an effort to get him the ball so he can actually play pg. A pg without the ball just makes him a shooting guard which Elliot is not and has never claimed to be. EC is third in minutes and likely less than that in actual possession of the ball.

 

[alabamaheel]

I think in order to be a lead dog and have that mentality a concerted effort needs to be made to make sure everyone on the team is on the same page and they actually make an effort to get him the ball so he can actually play pg. A pg without the ball just makes him a shooting guard which Elliot is not and has never claimed to be. EC is third in minutes and likely less than that in actual possession of the ball.

I agree but most of the time they take him out because they know he won’t last past half time with fouls. I hate the first sub for him being so early but dang it man he gets in foul trouble and practically takes his own self out. His issues are mental. I think he’s got the tools just not the upstairs cabinet to put them in. He has to make it to where they can’t take him off the court. Instead it’s been easier each game to play him less, especially with Ian coming on. U think he just doesn’t play him because he doesn’t like him? Or he likes someone else? Make yourself indispensable and they have to play you!!! He doesn’t.

 

[RP12]

I don’t want to argue but yes EC is a problem. No lead dog mentality from our floor general, not an out side threat at all, to many turnovers and defense is atrocious. That’s a big problem!

EC has been better on D than RJ this season to my eye

 

[RP12]

How many years in a row are we going to start the season with such passive switching? Other than Drake or Seth being sent to lock someone down, which hasn’t happened often, we see switches where neither defender is within 3-4 feet of anyone including each other. They start slow in every season and this year in every game. Instead of transferring blame to EC/bigs we might want to revisit how much blame Love actually deserved.

 

[al would]

I agree but most of the time they take him out because they know he won’t last past half time with fouls.

Can you remember one game this season when Elliot Cadeau actually played a dedicated pg position for at least 30 mins in a game? Can you remember a game since Love and RJ came to CH that much of anyone played a true pg position. All the DES offensive teachings and teams generally relied on good pg play. Hubcaps 4/5 out pro crap doesn't really need a good pg because the pro game is full of great individual players that know how to make a team work .. not one player that makes a team. Hubcap does not have the talent or size to support anything resembling UNC basketball on the offensive side. He has a deep bench and some athletic smaller guys if he wanted to use multiple aggressive defenses to force things but he won't even do that.

It's to the point of not even discussing it anymore. Look at hubcaps pressers, look at the total lack of effort and emotion, and lack of desire this dysfunctional group displays and that's from the top down. His team has his attitude/personality and it obvious. Read AJ's articles. It (subtly) screams the same thing. Rant over. jmo

 

[alabamaheel]

Can you remember one game this season when Elliot Cadeau actually played a dedicated pg position for at least 30 mins in a game? Can you remember a game since Love and RJ came to CH that much of anyone played a true pg position. All the DES offensive teachings and teams generally relied on good pg play. Hubcaps 4/5 out pro crap doesn't really need a good pg because the pro game is full of great individual players that know how to make a team work .. not one player that makes a team. Hubcap does not have the talent or size to support anything resembling UNC basketball on the offensive side. He has a deep bench and some athletic smaller guys if he wanted to use multiple aggressive defenses to force things but he won't even do that.

It's to the point of not even discussing it anymore. Look at hubcaps pressers, look at the total lack of effort and emotion, and lack of desire this dysfunctional group displays and that's from the top down. His team has his attitude/personality and it obvious. Read AJ's articles. It (subtly) screams the same thing. Rant over. jmo

@al would I definitely agree with your post. That’s where my beef lands with this team, The coach. Idk what that has to do with EC staying in foul trouble and playing less but I agree, it’s all in shambles. I don’t hold the same value of a pg as a lot of people on here but EC is a pg that would thrive on past unc coached teams. Problem is our coaches style or whatever he’s trying doesn’t fit EC. Idk who it fits actually. We have several problems but imo EC and RJ are down the list.

 

[notashelbyfan]

I think alot of problems come from us thinking the EC was a generational talent, and he isn't he is just a basketball player ok a bad team. He would be an above average PG on a team where he could just distribute the ball. Say a team like Marshall was was on in the 2011-2012 team, if he was on that team his stats would be similar to Marshall's.