Prediction Contest---UNC/Chattanooga (Sunday 11/13, 4:00 pm) Double Points!
- Thread starter Steat
- Start date
Excel Model with Crystal Ball Monte Carlo simulation analysis says ...
The University of North Carolina by 25 points. Conducted over 10,000 runs.
Hope this helps!
Roger sends
The University of North Carolina by 25 points. Conducted over 10,000 runs.
Hope this helps!
Roger sends
Dang, was hoping the spread would have been closer to UNC +12, this a good team we getting and 157? We at home, hopefully we blew some cob webs out fri night, long trip back home on short rest is a concern. We have a huge size advantage but they bring 5 sr starters and a solid big man that is killing it, just beat tenn solid. There is no way I should give 17.5pts and 157 total means both teams score a bunch making the 17.5 even less likely. Kinda comes down to do we score 100 or do we let them score 80 to cover the 157?
UNC...under
UNC...under
I like this early double points game. Not that I have a clue how to vote, but because this could be our first real test of the season.
Not that they are in the realm of Oregon or Indiana, whom we face in a bit over a week, but they could be the best team we face until them. So it's a meaningful early-season game.
That's what makes it fun Dave. One should never assume that the odds I'm using are accurate. In fact, most of the time they will inaccurate. This is following Bleed's philosophy. On the other hand, regardless of the true spread, we will always get a disproportionate number of UNC/Over. I use ESPN Pick Center and make some adjustments. Note that -17.5 UNC and over/under 157 is not far off from the latest on ESPN Pick Center picks of of -16.5 UNC and over/under 154. People need to do their own research.
Yeah I usually would set the lines based on the contest trends, to help maintain pick variety. The first 3 or 4 games, however, are a complete guess. I never once looked at the traditional Vegas lines but that was mostly because I would put my contest lines out 24 to 48 hours before Vegas would. Pretty sure Vegas started watching the contest after a couple years, haha!
In my personal betting, against Vegas since 2008 I have won UNC bball games at 68% ... cha-ching
Just a very busy summer combined with a need to pull back from boards like this for a while... bit of a personal purge, haha. I'll be around. GO HEELS
Your pick came in after game started. Picks must be in 30-minutes prior to start of game. Thus, zero points for game.
