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Prediction Contest - UNC vs Louisville

Don't understand the numbers here. Louisville is a 2 point Vegas favorite now. The over/under seems about right...
I've never once looked at the Vegas line to help influence the contest line -- in fact, most times I put the spreads up here a day or so before anything can be found online. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong .. the last 2 games I've been off for sure but I'll be closer the next game.

Another thing, there has always been a strong UNC-homer pick bias so I typically have to guard against that when setting the point spread.
 
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