Quick stuff (VaTech game)...
- Thread starter gary-7
- Start date
I don't totally disagree...
This team is built for offense, not built to be an outstanding defensive group. WE do have some darn good individual defenders, Seth of course but Ingram is pretty solid, Ryan isn't bad, and Bacot is a under appreciated defender. Problem is our starting back court is a bit on the small side, our PG is a freshman whose strength is in running a high octane offense, his defensive short comings are on display a lot lately. The fact that we don't have that intimidating shot blocker man in the paint that shuts down the paint and covers guards when they get beat forces our guards to work extra hard.
Seth is our best defender by far but he doesn't start and he doesn't start due to his not being the scoring threat that those in front of him are considered to be. To my count so far this season we have had to radically change our defensive approach at least once and a couple big changes within the newer approach. Let me be crystal clear about this, as a major D-1 head coach you should NEVER be in a position where you have to radically change your approach, it isn't a "hey, I wonder of this will work" job, it is a "I KNOW this will work, this is what we are going to do" job. It is a bottom line "you either know what you are doing or you don't job"...
Where I do disagree is that this team, as opposed to EITHER of Hubert's prior 2 teams has forced harder shots for the other team that we get on our offensive end, that is what any coach wants to occur. Yes, at times against every defense open shots happen and you have to hope they don't go in but if your opponents have to take harder shots than you do then you will win a lot more than you lose.
Maybe I missed something but didn’t Cadeau control the clock and then score in the waning moments of the Virginia Tech game ending the first half…
Very true but this season EC being on the floor to end halfs has been the exception and not the rule.. And I hope him being on the floor to end halfs and games becomes the norm. It's not the same team with him off the floor.
Individually there are some good defenders but team defense is my concern there seems to be a lot of getting lost on ball screens, and fighting around them, leaving use with bad match ups and more importantly out of position for rebounding.
He should always be on the floor in those situations.
...and yet we pretty consistently outrebound opponents despite starting 5'11, 6'1 and 6'5 on the perimeter.
Also, the reality is there is very little "getting lost", especially as compared to recent seasons. Moreover, although sometimes shots fall more or less on a given night, any objective watch shows our guys consistently get better shot looks than our opponents, so no, our defensive success isn't some fluke of opponents deciding to miss when they play us. In fact, in stark contrast, the Syracuse game was a fluke of making a ridiculaous percentage of the stuff they threw up.
Watching the UVa/Va Tech first half and it’s painful to watch Virginia on offense. They scored 16 points and went over 9 minutes without scoring.
I understand they’ve struggled on the road this year, but wow. Virginia also officiated much differently on the road. They had either 8 or 9 first half fouls and my guess is that will be their game total this Saturday.
I understand they’ve struggled on the road this year, but wow. Virginia also officiated much differently on the road. They had either 8 or 9 first half fouls and my guess is that will be their game total this Saturday.
That type of beat down will put Virginia back on the bubble. The UNC game at home will be a huge one for thier dancing resume.
The Hokies are skull-dragging the Cavaliers in Blacksburg tonight! There are 3-4 minutes left in the game and UVA has scored 35 points to VT's 69 points!
Ouch!
Ouch!
UVA shot 33% from two point range and 17% from three. No one scored in double digits.
Yep. Figures it would happen right before we hafta go up there.
VT showed how you beat them. I doubt they shoot that poorly at home, two games in a row.
Yeah, you can count on that. They are a night-and-day different team at home confidence-wise. Their Pack-LIne will give up the wing 3, especially early in the clock, but you can't get baited into just passing around the arc as their defense "flattens" out to the corners. Attacking at sharp vertical angles and inside-out is key against them.
If they play from behind, especially double-digits, they are easy to beat. That game last night was over after the first half.
This game could be won or lost pretty early on. We need to start fast and with serious focus. It is not so much that we need to score a ton, but more that we need to be strong with the ball, reduce TOs and get good shots. ON D, we definitely will need to focus for the entire shot clock and then finish with a rebound! We can't allow their physical and determined D to get in our heads a speed us up. Playing fast is paramount, but rushing either passes or shots could be a killer. We have proven we can play a low possession game and can grind out low scoring wins, but I do not want to have to beat them at their game! Run frequently, only take great shots, and play D for 40 minutes and we should be fine!
The thing about the pac-man is they are looking to trap you in a corner and hawk your primary outlet passing lane, what looks like an escape is a trap. They are well drilled on forcing your decisions by moving to double on the pass rather than wait for the catch, lot of coaches are trying to do this now days, Bennett is exceptional in how he teaches it and how his players execute it. They don't hit the offensive boards hard, they retreat to set up their pac-man and to keep you from running because their defense is not geared to stop a wide open running game. They are as well a team not built to come from behind, they literally have to play to keep the score low, a 10pt margin on them is more like 15 but realize, their 10pt lead on you is the same thing. They want you to take quick outside shots but they make that a harder shot and they block you out.
Bennett's teams tend to do a good job of identifying who your better shooters are so they are going to find RJ but Ryan and Cadeau may have a lot of open looks. Ball goes inside they are going to swarm it from different directions but they are going to hawk your preferred outlet so look to your secondary option and look to reverse it. What separates UVa's defense is that not only is it a hard defense to deal with their individual players are well schooled individual defenders and they trust each other to do what they are coached to do. Beekman is one of the best players in the country because he is a duo threat, excellent defensively as well as offensively, we can not give him clean looks and we darn sure don't want him to get his shooting game off because he is hard to cool back down.
The oh crap warning sign is if UVa comes out hot and gets a 10pt margin on us, we need to come out playing really hard and if the refs allow, play physical, I question if they (Uva) can handle a physical game. But if the refs start calling the touch stuff it will not be a good sign. UVa is going to be UP for this game, that crowd is going to be hyped, they desperately need this quad 1 game. I think UVa may be getting us at the wrong time for them, I don't think Bennett really liked having to catch us this time of the season coming off a open date so we have had time to rest out of some team fatigue and have some extra prep time for them.
Bennett's teams tend to do a good job of identifying who your better shooters are so they are going to find RJ but Ryan and Cadeau may have a lot of open looks. Ball goes inside they are going to swarm it from different directions but they are going to hawk your preferred outlet so look to your secondary option and look to reverse it. What separates UVa's defense is that not only is it a hard defense to deal with their individual players are well schooled individual defenders and they trust each other to do what they are coached to do. Beekman is one of the best players in the country because he is a duo threat, excellent defensively as well as offensively, we can not give him clean looks and we darn sure don't want him to get his shooting game off because he is hard to cool back down.
The oh crap warning sign is if UVa comes out hot and gets a 10pt margin on us, we need to come out playing really hard and if the refs allow, play physical, I question if they (Uva) can handle a physical game. But if the refs start calling the touch stuff it will not be a good sign. UVa is going to be UP for this game, that crowd is going to be hyped, they desperately need this quad 1 game. I think UVa may be getting us at the wrong time for them, I don't think Bennett really liked having to catch us this time of the season coming off a open date so we have had time to rest out of some team fatigue and have some extra prep time for them.
TP, I am not convinced that we are going to be able to run much, we are a touch slow going from rebound to our guard to initiate the running game, our big men don't do a lot of outlet passing quickly. Combine that with UVa not crashing the offensive boards much, they retreat to set up that pac-man as well as to stunt your breaks, they are excellent at playing the passing lanes and stripping the ball if you are not careful. They milk the shot clock on the offensive end to shorten the game.
Where you can get them is get out to a working margin on them, when they get behind by 10 they start throwing up jump shots and they outside of Beekman and McNeely are not great jump shooters. You can run some off their missed jumpers and they will take quicker shots when they get down double digits.
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They played Monday and it's a home game for them, so they should be plenty rested.
While I'm glad we have this extra time to get ready, I do sometimes worry that extra time often seems to result in a sluggish start the next game. As you and others have pointed out, Virginia is the last team you want a sluggish start against.
Since the GT the our opponents points have went up and our record has gotten worse. You can't have to both ways either our defense is getting worse or the other team is making shots they was missing during the win streak.
Teams shooting out of their minds on the same tough looks does NOT say anything one way or another about our defense.
There are always going to be shots missed that should be made and shots made that should have been missed, but over the course of a season your opponents FG percentages and points scored are a direct Is correlation to how productive your defense is. I am will to concede that maybe it was better during the win streak but it's definitely worse now.
They missed a lot of wide open shots during our win streak and made a lot of hard shots during our losing streak. The wide open shots and hard shots are basically the same ratio still.
You said nothing about the course of the season until now, of course...
So are you saying the defense is just as good now as it was during our win streak or not?
You talk in riddles anytime someone is trying to have a discussion with you.
Whats your opinion if the defense now as opposed to back when we were play our best, why in your opinion are we struggling now so to speak?
During the 10 games before GT the opponents FG% average was 36.7% and the 6 games after it was 46.3%
During that same period the 3 point was 20.1% and the 6 games after it was 34.4%
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One factor is that UNC is not as strong on defense with Cadeau on the floor as with Trimble. Trade-off is that the offense is more efficient, pace is quicker and there are more possessions so scoring is higher. I am not knocking Cadeau and absolutely want him on the floor but that does create a small backcourt.
The troubling part for me is the comparison in the two rematches we lost.
Clemson game 1 was 1/18 from 3 and shot 36% overall. In game 2 they were 11/31 on 3's and shot 39%.
Syracuse was 4/19 from 3 and shot 36% in first game but 8/17 from deep and 63% second game.
I don't know their season averages and maybe our games were outliers on either end for them but it does seem they made adjustments that made us less efficient on D. Sometimes teams are just hot but that small sample size does cause concern.
The troubling part for me is the comparison in the two rematches we lost.
Clemson game 1 was 1/18 from 3 and shot 36% overall. In game 2 they were 11/31 on 3's and shot 39%.
Syracuse was 4/19 from 3 and shot 36% in first game but 8/17 from deep and 63% second game.
I don't know their season averages and maybe our games were outliers on either end for them but it does seem they made adjustments that made us less efficient on D. Sometimes teams are just hot but that small sample size does cause concern.
We clearly lagged in our focus. It might be due to nagging injuries, the pressure of mounting expectations, fatigue, or good scouting, but it happened. Peeps refuse to give us credit for the in your face D during the win stretch but are quick to place blame during the losses. Peeps missed shots because we put pressure on them and lately they hit contested shots and our pressure lagged a bit. I like how we responded and I know we are capable of putting on another multi-game stretch of high level play!
It is one thing to say "well the other team shot way above their heads" but when you see similar results across a string of games it becomes a trend. Now what I see is that while we get better quality of shots than our opponents for the most part our defense has been giving up more since that duke game. I do think this team badly needed this open date, if for no other reason than to release some of that mental fatigue but there are other factors that made this open date important as well.
I think a lot of this is the strange need for so many to proclaim the ACC as weaker than what it really is. I don't really care who had a major upset early season, major upsets happen every season but how many ACC teams would lose to UNC-W today, I doubt any would or see the game closer than double digits at the end. I would LOVE to see what either Purdue or UConn would do in the ACC, both would be in the mix of top ACC teams for sure but I as well believe they would see more losses that most would expect. Sure UConn beat us, they beat us early, oh my, the defending natty champs beat a team that returned 4 guys from the prior season, 2 starters and 2 sophs that had limited minutes? Takes a while to integrate that many new faces. But it takes a toll being the team to beat in the ACC and that toll accumulates as the season gets in to the deep water. WE have been dealing with the toll that takes for a string of games now.
I think people forget that the opposing teams job is to shoot better. lol they adapt also. Sometimes you can play great defense and they score. It’s ok and no one’s fault. Coaches need to readjust after time and throw in a wrinkle or two here and there but teams get hot, comfortable, and sometimes just dang lucky. Momentum changes.
To me it’s pretty obvious that teams missed some wide open threes against us during our win streak and shot low and uncommon percentages. Now, it seems like throwing a beach ball into the ocean at times. It all plays out. Did we change our defense and start losing? No
To me it’s pretty obvious that teams missed some wide open threes against us during our win streak and shot low and uncommon percentages. Now, it seems like throwing a beach ball into the ocean at times. It all plays out. Did we change our defense and start losing? No
As usual, you are determined to create a negative narrative (as opposed to discussion) and keep moving the goal posts as well as your original premise, and as usual, it is tiresome.
There are different ways to judge conference strength. I usually look at Pomeroy simply because he lays it out nicely. As I understand it, his algorithm focuses on the middle of the conference to decide how to rank conferences. That's a reasonable way to think about it, but hardly the only way.
Just for fun, I invented my own way. Instead of looking at the middle, I'm looking at the top and bottom. Basically my metric is the number of Top 50 teams minus the number of 150 or worse teams (212 of them).
The unintended consequence is that we actually look a bit worse with my method. Oh well.
| Conf | P Rank | Top 50 | Bottom 212 | WWJD Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 10 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Big 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| SEC | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Big East | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| PAC 12 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Mountain West | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| ACC | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Missouri Valley | 10 | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Am Athletic | 9 | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| Atlantic 10 | 8 | 1 | 5 | -4 |
My big picture view of UNC's defense is they don't force turnovers at all. One of the bottom in the country in defensive turnover percentage teams in the country. They don't block a lot of shots either. They also generally don't send teams to the free throw line. So their defense is more reliant on forcing misses in live play and getting defensive rebounds.
In my opinion, it's a dangerous game to depend on other teams missing 3s as part of your defensive strategy. Assuming we don't force more turnovers or block shots, I would much rather force teams to beat us from 2. It isn't perfect. Tennessee, Duke, UConn, and Cuse all shot over 60% from 2 against UNC. But that would be my strategy. If you're ok with allowing teams to take 3s, to me you're playing with fire.
As for our defense right now. I don't think this is a top 10 defense, but think they're somewhere between 15-20. I think not having a shot blocker or a player that gets a lot of steals limits your defense's upside. I never really viewed this as a great defensive team because of those limitations.
A defense definitely good enough to steal a game if the offense is having a bad day in March. And that's the important thing. However, one that I'm not completely confident in because it just takes a team making those 3s one day to beat you.
To me, it's a defense that can't beat you in multiple ways. It kind of needs to force you to miss shots since it won't block all that many and steal all that many.
In my opinion, it's a dangerous game to depend on other teams missing 3s as part of your defensive strategy. Assuming we don't force more turnovers or block shots, I would much rather force teams to beat us from 2. It isn't perfect. Tennessee, Duke, UConn, and Cuse all shot over 60% from 2 against UNC. But that would be my strategy. If you're ok with allowing teams to take 3s, to me you're playing with fire.
As for our defense right now. I don't think this is a top 10 defense, but think they're somewhere between 15-20. I think not having a shot blocker or a player that gets a lot of steals limits your defense's upside. I never really viewed this as a great defensive team because of those limitations.
A defense definitely good enough to steal a game if the offense is having a bad day in March. And that's the important thing. However, one that I'm not completely confident in because it just takes a team making those 3s one day to beat you.
To me, it's a defense that can't beat you in multiple ways. It kind of needs to force you to miss shots since it won't block all that many and steal all that many.
I'm trying to have a discussion but you refuse to engage, when someone ask your opinion this is a text book question to trigger a discussion. I posted stats and I'm asking your opinion on what the cause of this is it is obvious that these numbers are a 100% correlation to the record since the GT game so what's the issue?
Are you willing to answer the question?
Forcing misses and getting rebounds in live play is a bad thing??? (must suck to be one of the best offensive rebounding teams out there in this case, lol) Are we talking about basketball? Waiting on peeps to miss 3s or saying we are allowing them to take them is so misleading it is insulting! I cannot believe anybody really thinks we just allow peeps to shoot 3s and hope for a miss......if someone does they are at best a basketball neophyte! (most likely they have an agenda) Meanwhile, back in reality, we play intense D and are getting better in spots as we play. RJ and EC aren't going to grow so peeps do shoot over them at times. Bacot is blocking shots more recently than ever but so what if we don't have John Henson. Making peeps work for hard 2s over peeps; contested or rushed 3s, and layups over or through a defender is excellent strategy! Our D fluctuates based on our own intensity and at times if peeps make the hard shots! AND our freakin terrible D has us at the top of the ACC and one of the prime contenders for the FF so.......I hope opponents believe as you do!
No, you're not. You've changed your paramaters 3 times since your first (tautological) effort. For the record, I answered that one quite concisely. I have no interest in engaging further while you backfill trying to find another dead horse to beat. Done and done.
I disagree that our defense is as flexible as you think it is. Also, by no means do I think our defense is "freakin terrible." Being a top 15-20 defense is well within range of the majority of National Championship winning teams over the last 30 years. You typically want to be a top 20 KenPom offense and a top 30 KenPom defense going into the tournament. Like 92% of title winning teams since 1992 have had that combo.
Right now, UNC is one of 8:
Creighton, UConn, Tennessee, UNC, Duke, Houston, Purdue, Arizona
Also, I think our defense fluctuates because it isn't the most talented defensive group physically. Small backcourt, and average athletes with Ingram and Bacot. But Hubert's gotten a lot out of this group defensively. But I don't think it's a matter of intensity or something like that. This team has some limitations.
No argument at all there but EC is in no way a bad defensive player and were I looking for guard defense I think I'd take EC and Seth over Seth and RJ ... and in no way is RJ a bad defensive player it just seems EC moves his feet better .. just my opinion
The above statement is completely reasonable and for you this is noteworthy! Have you changed your opinion from a few posts ago? (also this might be the first time you actually complimented Hubs) Address what you meant when you implied that "Forcing misses and getting rebounds in live play is a bad thing" and we wait/hope peeps miss 3s! BTW: Where did I say our D was so flexible? I said it "fluctuates" based on our intensity and it is getting better. It is not what I think, it is what I see! I also said we are playing intense D and that both EC and RJ are world's better on the ball than previously. Individual play and scheme are getting better by the game but I also said there is nothing our guards can do to get taller. Any team that allows peeps to shoot 3s and hopes they miss has terrible D! That is the only implication one can get from your statements, especially since you were responding to posts that were positive about our D.
