Earlier today, I realized that everyone in the conference was down to their final regular season games, so I was thinking about how things could shake out in the ACC tournament seeding, particularly regarding us. I was trying to figure out tiebreak scenarios, and so I thought I'd share what I found.
CAROLINA GETS THE 1 SEED IF: we win at Duke. It's as simple as that. If we win and Miami loses, it's an outright regular season title for us. If Miami wins at VT, it would be a two-way tie at the top with 14-4 records, but UNC would own the tiebreak since we beat them head to head.
MIAMI GETS THE 1 SEED IF: they win and we lose. They would be in first place, we would be in a tie for 2nd with the winner of UVA-Louisville. If it's UVA, we get the 3 seed, since UVA beat us head to head; if it's Louisville, we get the 2 seed because of their ban, but would have lost the tiebreak with them. Miami also gets the one seed if they lose, we lose, and Louisville beats UVA. In that scenario, all three would be 13-5, so it goes to combined head to head. All three went 1-1 against the other two (We beat Miami, lost to Louisville; Miami beat Louisville, lost to us; Louisville beat us, lost to Miami), so it goes to the next tiebreak, which is record against the next best team. In this scenario, that would be Duke, so in that instance, Miami would have the best record against Duke (1-0). We would get the 2 seed.
VIRGINIA GETS THE 1 SEED IF: we lose, Miami loses, and they beat Louisville. All 3 would be 13-5 overall, so tiebreak would be combined head to head. Virginia went 2-1 (split with Miami, beat us), we went 1-1, and Miami went 1-2. So in this scenario we would get the 2 seed.
So, any way you slice it, we need the win Saturday. I know we want to win because we want to beat Duke, particularly after the last game, but I think the added confidence this team would have as the regular season ACC champs would be huge going into the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Just another reason I want us to win and win big on Saturday!
CAROLINA GETS THE 1 SEED IF: we win at Duke. It's as simple as that. If we win and Miami loses, it's an outright regular season title for us. If Miami wins at VT, it would be a two-way tie at the top with 14-4 records, but UNC would own the tiebreak since we beat them head to head.
MIAMI GETS THE 1 SEED IF: they win and we lose. They would be in first place, we would be in a tie for 2nd with the winner of UVA-Louisville. If it's UVA, we get the 3 seed, since UVA beat us head to head; if it's Louisville, we get the 2 seed because of their ban, but would have lost the tiebreak with them. Miami also gets the one seed if they lose, we lose, and Louisville beats UVA. In that scenario, all three would be 13-5, so it goes to combined head to head. All three went 1-1 against the other two (We beat Miami, lost to Louisville; Miami beat Louisville, lost to us; Louisville beat us, lost to Miami), so it goes to the next tiebreak, which is record against the next best team. In this scenario, that would be Duke, so in that instance, Miami would have the best record against Duke (1-0). We would get the 2 seed.
VIRGINIA GETS THE 1 SEED IF: we lose, Miami loses, and they beat Louisville. All 3 would be 13-5 overall, so tiebreak would be combined head to head. Virginia went 2-1 (split with Miami, beat us), we went 1-1, and Miami went 1-2. So in this scenario we would get the 2 seed.
So, any way you slice it, we need the win Saturday. I know we want to win because we want to beat Duke, particularly after the last game, but I think the added confidence this team would have as the regular season ACC champs would be huge going into the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Just another reason I want us to win and win big on Saturday!
