Single Most Important Thing Saturday at UVA

[ChiShankCity]

Pace.

No team is better in the ACC in controlling the tempo than UVA.

Just some stats. In conference games, UVA averages 60 possessions/game by far the fewest in the ACC. We're the fastest at just 71.2 possessions/game.

But UVA hasn't had a single game of 70 possessions this season... And that includes an overtime game. So, it's accurate to say it's impossible to speed up UVA.

And it's been a way to beat us. 4-of-5 losses came in games below 70 possessions.
UNC:
In games fewer than 70 possessions: 8-4
In games 70-79 possessions: 12-1
In games 80 possessions and more: 3-0

So we're probably going to have to beat UVA at their game.

A couple UVA weaknesses in ACC play:
- Among the worst offensive rebounding teams in league play, but the best in allowing the fewest offensive rebounds. I think we should have an advantage on the glass, and we're going to need it.
- UVA doesn't get to the FT line easily, so we can't allow any free points due to cheap fouls
- UVA isn't great at defending the 3, so we'll probably get a chance to make a few.

If I were to guess, UVA is going to double in the post and force us to shoot the 3. If we get pockets of the game played at a high pace and we knock down some shots, I think we win. But it's an uphill task against a team that's undefeated at home.

 

[wilsinnc]

A win

 

[TarHeelTroy]

They are going to slow it down more than we want. That's a given. Like you said, they will double us in the post and force us to hit perimeter shots. The most important thing is we need to hit our perimeter shots.

 

[gary-7]

Pace.

No team is better in the ACC in controlling the tempo than UVA.

Just some stats. In conference games, UVA averages 60 possessions/game by far the fewest in the ACC. We're the fastest at just 71.2 possessions/game.

But UVA hasn't had a single game of 70 possessions this season... And that includes an overtime game. So, it's accurate to say it's impossible to speed up UVA.

And it's been a way to beat us. 4-of-5 losses came in games below 70 possessions.
UNC:
In games fewer than 70 possessions: 8-4
In games 70-79 possessions: 12-1
In games 80 possessions and more: 3-0

So we're probably going to have to beat UVA at their game.

A couple UVA weaknesses in ACC play:
- Among the worst offensive rebounding teams in league play, but the best in allowing the fewest offensive rebounds. I think we should have an advantage on the glass, and we're going to need it.
- UVA doesn't get to the FT line easily, so we can't allow any free points due to cheap fouls
- UVA isn't great at defending the 3, so we'll probably get a chance to make a few.

If I were to guess, UVA is going to double in the post and force us to shoot the 3. If we get pockets of the game played at a high pace and we knock down some shots, I think we win. But it's an uphill task against a team that's undefeated at home.

- Attack, attack, attack.
- Rebound. If our Bigs do their jobs there should be very few offensive boards given up, and WE should attack the offensive glass.
- Bigs stay outta the way on screens and do your job through their last ball reversal.

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

Virginia like UNC have a lot of upper class men who start and play big time minutes. Brogan is a big time player and who ever has to guard him will have their hands full.

 

[coryfly]

I don't think we can speed them up. They will be patient on their offensive end as well but are smart and skilled enough to push when it is there. The key to me is rebounding. They are going to play good defense so we will have a tough time scoring at times. The more offensive rebounds we can get the more chances we will have to find openings and make plays. Plus, that is the chance to take advantage of their D not being quite set and ready.

 

[gary-7]

Virginia like UNC have a lot of upper class men who start and play big time minutes. Brogan is a big time player and who ever has to guard him will have their hands full.

It's interesting, the shorter shot clock has actually hurt UVA more than most.
Brian Gregory from Tech put it best: "used to be you could play 30 seconds of great defense and then they'd score on that last ball reversal... now at least they have one less rotation to make you lose track of somebody". That's a great description. They are so patient and you just can't afford to lose concentration. Guys like Parentes will hit from deep when you lose track of him or help down.

They are not deep inside and we should pound them hard and force their Bigs to play defense, and of course push the ball.

 

[coryfly]

Gill and Tobey are keys on the boards and on offense for them IMO. Brogdon is going to get his. Parentes as well probably. We can't let Gill and Tobey score a lot and need to limit their rebounds.

 

[dlew71]

passing out of the doubles and reversal of the ball then hitting open shots - simple normally but a challenge for this group - that said i expect a win and would love for the real MP to say hello

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Play our game: get it to Brice, Hicks, or Meeks inside and force their bigs to guard the post to post pass; pass out of doubles and hit a few; get their bigs tired/foul trouble; stay in front of the driver; bigs play the Help properly; push it when possible = Win!

We are tough enough and deep enough to win playing their game this year, but better if we push it as much as possible.

Go Tar Heels!

 

[keysersosay#1]

I really think that there is little chance of "speeding them up" I have thought about that in the past, but they just walk it up and pass it around and Brogdon or someone else hits a three or gets an o rebound and they score.

It is a boring but effective way to play. I really believe we need to get off to a very good start... Hit shots early and force them to respond. IF they fall behind, they are out of their comfort zone and have to play catch up and really FORCE tempo at that point.

I really would like to see much more and better penetration by Berry and Marcus. Just take it right to em, and then dish off to our bigs. Initiate the action and not simply pass around the perimeter..

I like our chances here, I really do. It will be tough no doubt but I see us breaking thru and winning by 3 or 4

 

[Bubspub88]

Two guys getting hot from deep at the same time. If only one guy is hitting then that defense will pack it in and bigs have no room to operate. Do not fall behind early like they did at state. Berry has to avoid the unnecessary fouls.

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

We need another great team defensive effort, and need to be able to help out on Brogden when he takes it to the hole, which seems to be often, especially late in the game... We also need to limit them to one shot on offense, and pound the offensive boards ourselves....Making free throws down the stretch, is going to crucial in this game...

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

Getting to the line to me is a major factor. I like to see Berry go hard to the hole a bunch especially since he is a tremendous shooter from the line in case he gets fouled.j

 

[Spacegrass]

I don't think we can speed them up. They will be patient on their offensive end as well but are smart and skilled enough to push when it is there. The key to me is rebounding. They are going to play good defense so we will have a tough time scoring at times. The more offensive rebounds we can get the more chances we will have to find openings and make plays. Plus, that is the chance to take advantage of their D not being quite set and ready.

Yea. Best case scenario is maybe we can get them get them to play into the upper 60's low 70's. Score wise. I feel like If the guys can hit 70 they are good to get the win.

 

[bobby121567]

Play great defense. And coaches and players have to play with a high basketball IQ. We for the most part play good offense this season. Hustle,intensity and IQ on the defensive end is where we lack at times.

 

[Bubspub88]

Hops have only allowed over 70 twice all season, wiins over Nova and Wake. Heels have failed to hit 70 three times and two were losses. With the likely fewer number of possessions and the way UVa gets defensive boards hitting the long ball will be crucial. A great test for Berry to see if can create tempo fr the offense

 

[keysersosay#1]

Berry and his penetration is critical