I don't usually have time to sit around and do a full game break down seeing that I have a full time job as a teacher/coach. But I did for this one. I just wish it could have been a liitle bit more of a competitive matchup. I have crunched the analytics, and there is nothing Louisville does that should make UNC sweat. No critical offensive stats inside the top 148 nationally. No defensive numbers inside the top 230.
I did see a couple of things that are interesting about North Carolina. Forget points given up per game because the pace of play is fast even though they are on a great run of giving up under 70. Defensive efficiency which is points per possession is 24th in the country. Offensive efficiency is 33rd. That is the mark of a solid team. They are gaining almost two-tenths of a point every possession. Multiply that by 75.1 trips per game, and you can do the math.
They are doing some of the familiar things. Rebounding has been a sore spot at times, but they are 31st in rebounding percentage which isn't bad. They have also made 31 more foul shots than the opponents have attempted. The one number that needs to come up is two-point percentage. North Carolina is usually one of the best at that, but their 50.8% clip is only 158th nationally. That needs to go up to at least 54% to get into the top-50.
Statistically I see about a 17 to 18 point difference tonight. Throw in the home court, and the final number should be somewhere around 87-67.
I did see a couple of things that are interesting about North Carolina. Forget points given up per game because the pace of play is fast even though they are on a great run of giving up under 70. Defensive efficiency which is points per possession is 24th in the country. Offensive efficiency is 33rd. That is the mark of a solid team. They are gaining almost two-tenths of a point every possession. Multiply that by 75.1 trips per game, and you can do the math.
They are doing some of the familiar things. Rebounding has been a sore spot at times, but they are 31st in rebounding percentage which isn't bad. They have also made 31 more foul shots than the opponents have attempted. The one number that needs to come up is two-point percentage. North Carolina is usually one of the best at that, but their 50.8% clip is only 158th nationally. That needs to go up to at least 54% to get into the top-50.
Statistically I see about a 17 to 18 point difference tonight. Throw in the home court, and the final number should be somewhere around 87-67.
