As we all know we started out the season rough.
However, was it really as bad as we thought?
We had some squeakers early. And tough losses early.
We lost to Alabama, Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Iowa State.
If we beat Alabama we probably view the start of the season a lot differently. Alabama is the 9th best team according to kenpom in the nation. We had 3 chances at the end of regulation and overtime to beat this team. Also, we had to have a slight collapse to get to that point too. This game probably speaks more in our favor than against us.
Our worst loss of these 4 was to Iowa State who comes in around 49th in Kenpom. This game we had won in the final 3 minutes and blew it. This was a game we gave away.
Our next worst loss is versus Virginia Tech who is 31 in kenpom. This loss was without Bacot who is arguably our most important player. And we were fighting in the end for the game.
Our most lopsided defeat was Indiana. Indiana is 19th in kenpom and was an ugly loss all around.
Of all the losses, the Indiana one was the one that we just got beat and nothing we can say about it. That's not bad after a dozen or more games.
Of our wins...
We beat UNCW who is 11-3 and 113th in kenpom, CoC who is 13-1 and 89th in kenpom convincingly. These are actually 2 very solid wins against tough mid majors.
We beat Gardner Webb 6-7 and 176th in kenpom, James Madison 10-4 and 81st in kenpom, Portland 8-8 and 143 in kenpom, but it was probably closer than we would have liked.
None of these teams are terrible, though midmajors will tend to trend down not upwards as their conference play starts. Our non conference slate is generally pretty strong. Kenpom has us at the 13th strongest non conference schedule. The only other teams in the top 20 higher than us in sos is Gonzaga at 5th and Alabama at 10th. The next highest team than us in this measure is at 184th in kenpom with Tarleton State at 9th. Thus, it stands to measure that a lot of these teams ahead of us would have lost a lot more if they played the schedule we did.
Thus, the early season despite losses really isn't that bad as it seems. We have only one game we really just were beat.
Now to the "turn around".
Georgia Tech, Citadel, Michigan, Ohio State.
Georgia Tech 7-5 117th KP small lineup
Citadel 6-7 263th KP
Ohio State 9-3 14th KP
Michigan 7-5 65th KP
This stretch is nowhere as good as people are acting. As not as bad as our losses have been, this stretch of wins isn't great either.
Georgia Tech and The Citadel are frankly just small teams that can't really compete with bigger lineups. To be fair though, we did handle both relatively easily.
The best win is the Ohio State win. However, the Ohio State win was a prayer shot to tie and take to overtime. This game was as lucky a win as the Alabama game was as unlucky of a loss. Arguably we should have lost this game and it's not really a game we should be pointing to for how great we are. We barely barely barely scraped by them.
Michigan was a decent win by metrics. This is also a Michigan team that just lost to 270th Central Michigan also.
There is reason to assume that these numbers don't suggest a turnaround, but a team that can compete on most nights against the 10-20 range of teams, but can also just have a clunker of a game too. The numbers suggest that there isn't a turnaround but just a consistency emerging from the games prior and after that state we are a 10-50 team that can hang around (win or lose) or lose outright to teams in this range, but cannot handedly beat teams in this range.
If there is going to be a turnaround, we still have yet to have it. Offensively, which most lament here, we are actually not doing bad. The 3 ball has been lacking from prior years, but honestly if it was dropping, we would be far and away the #1 team offensively. With it where it is now, we are 10th. Defensively we are 62nd. If we want to be an elite team, this has to come up into the 20ish range without a drop off offensively.
2 best teams we played all season are Alabama and Ohio State. Same result basically. OT and of game coinflips. Until we see better than this, we are not a top 10 team. But we can be.
However, was it really as bad as we thought?
We had some squeakers early. And tough losses early.
We lost to Alabama, Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Iowa State.
If we beat Alabama we probably view the start of the season a lot differently. Alabama is the 9th best team according to kenpom in the nation. We had 3 chances at the end of regulation and overtime to beat this team. Also, we had to have a slight collapse to get to that point too. This game probably speaks more in our favor than against us.
Our worst loss of these 4 was to Iowa State who comes in around 49th in Kenpom. This game we had won in the final 3 minutes and blew it. This was a game we gave away.
Our next worst loss is versus Virginia Tech who is 31 in kenpom. This loss was without Bacot who is arguably our most important player. And we were fighting in the end for the game.
Our most lopsided defeat was Indiana. Indiana is 19th in kenpom and was an ugly loss all around.
Of all the losses, the Indiana one was the one that we just got beat and nothing we can say about it. That's not bad after a dozen or more games.
Of our wins...
We beat UNCW who is 11-3 and 113th in kenpom, CoC who is 13-1 and 89th in kenpom convincingly. These are actually 2 very solid wins against tough mid majors.
We beat Gardner Webb 6-7 and 176th in kenpom, James Madison 10-4 and 81st in kenpom, Portland 8-8 and 143 in kenpom, but it was probably closer than we would have liked.
None of these teams are terrible, though midmajors will tend to trend down not upwards as their conference play starts. Our non conference slate is generally pretty strong. Kenpom has us at the 13th strongest non conference schedule. The only other teams in the top 20 higher than us in sos is Gonzaga at 5th and Alabama at 10th. The next highest team than us in this measure is at 184th in kenpom with Tarleton State at 9th. Thus, it stands to measure that a lot of these teams ahead of us would have lost a lot more if they played the schedule we did.
Thus, the early season despite losses really isn't that bad as it seems. We have only one game we really just were beat.
Now to the "turn around".
Georgia Tech, Citadel, Michigan, Ohio State.
Georgia Tech 7-5 117th KP small lineup
Citadel 6-7 263th KP
Ohio State 9-3 14th KP
Michigan 7-5 65th KP
This stretch is nowhere as good as people are acting. As not as bad as our losses have been, this stretch of wins isn't great either.
Georgia Tech and The Citadel are frankly just small teams that can't really compete with bigger lineups. To be fair though, we did handle both relatively easily.
The best win is the Ohio State win. However, the Ohio State win was a prayer shot to tie and take to overtime. This game was as lucky a win as the Alabama game was as unlucky of a loss. Arguably we should have lost this game and it's not really a game we should be pointing to for how great we are. We barely barely barely scraped by them.
Michigan was a decent win by metrics. This is also a Michigan team that just lost to 270th Central Michigan also.
There is reason to assume that these numbers don't suggest a turnaround, but a team that can compete on most nights against the 10-20 range of teams, but can also just have a clunker of a game too. The numbers suggest that there isn't a turnaround but just a consistency emerging from the games prior and after that state we are a 10-50 team that can hang around (win or lose) or lose outright to teams in this range, but cannot handedly beat teams in this range.
If there is going to be a turnaround, we still have yet to have it. Offensively, which most lament here, we are actually not doing bad. The 3 ball has been lacking from prior years, but honestly if it was dropping, we would be far and away the #1 team offensively. With it where it is now, we are 10th. Defensively we are 62nd. If we want to be an elite team, this has to come up into the 20ish range without a drop off offensively.
2 best teams we played all season are Alabama and Ohio State. Same result basically. OT and of game coinflips. Until we see better than this, we are not a top 10 team. But we can be.
