Stat Review: Alabama (3/28/2024)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	38	13
3FG%	38	57
2FG%	39	9
FT%	88	94
fg%	48	19
3fg%	42	22
2fg%	51	28
ft%	70	46
PTS/POSS	0.93	47
pts/poss	1.02	11
TOTPOSS	181	78
POSDIF	7	76
%LOB	9	94
%lob	11	18
SmithIdx	-0.1975	17
Interesting Stats
ast/poss	0.15	56
AST/TO	2.13	84
OR%	0.46	87
or%	0.43	1
%FROM3	41.0	90

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The 2024 season came to the end of the road late Thursday night with a 2 point loss to Alabama. It was a brisk, well played game, but only one team could advance.

It was the 3rd-fastest game of the season, with 181 total possessions. For a team which averages 161.9-possession games, it felt like a track meet.

UNC shot 39% inside the arc. Only 70 of the last 1028 games had worse interior shooting percentage. Despite that black eye, it was a decent offensive game from UNC overall. They scored 0.93 points per possession, and only turned it over on 9% of their possessions.

UNC outrebounded Alabama getting 7 more possessions. The season average advantage was only 2.6, so it was an excellent night on the boards.

The problem was that Alabama scored 1.02 points per possession. UNC was much further away from its defensive goal than its offensive goal. So while there will be much deserved discussion about the lineups used in the 4th quarter of the game and on RJ Davis' woeful shooting night, it was UNC's defense that lost this game. More on that in another post.

Now I guess we'll focus our attention on Clemson and the portal season. Thanks for following this series this season!

 

[pooponduke]

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