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Stat Review: @Indiana (11/30/22)

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
113
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%344
UNC_statBox_0.png

3FG%2826
UNC_statBox_25.png

2FG%375
UNC_statBox_5.png

FT%7463
UNC_statBox_60.png

fg%5011
UNC_statBox_10.png

3fg%2383
UNC_statBox_80.png

2fg%5710
UNC_statBox_10.png

ft%6754
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS0.7915
UNC_statBox_10.png

pts/poss0.9718
UNC_statBox_10.png

TOTPOSS16131
UNC_statBox_30.png

POSDIF356
UNC_statBox_55.png

%LOB1278
UNC_statBox_75.png

%lob1011
UNC_statBox_10.png

SmithIdx-0.28208
UNC_statBox_5.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.250
UNC_statBox_0.png

AST/POSS0.061
UNC_statBox_0.png

%rms0.2931
UNC_statBox_30.png

%FROM330.559
UNC_statBox_55.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
The trip from hell continues. The Heels left Chapel Hill last week as the #1 team in the land and return with questions about even making the tournament this year. The Heels lost to Indiana by 12, but it felt like many, many more.

Continued woes on offense, more specifically the guard play, plague this team like we haven't seen in a long, long time. In this game the Heels only mustered 5 assists on 20 made FGs for a rate of 0.250. --!!!ALERT!!!-- That's 1st percentile bad, and a performance we've only seen 3 times since 1996 and 1 other time this season. For reference, the 8-20 team of 2002's lowest performance was 0.481.

Intertwined with the assist red flag is the field goal shooting. The Heels shot 34% from the field (4th percentile), and have only been worse in 37 games in the last 966 games. In this game UNC took an average proportion of their shots from behind the arc, so it isn't like they were just jacking up ill-advised 3s the entire game. Once again this was a slow game, too, with only 161 total possessions (31st percentile). Guards aren't pushing any tempo on possession changes, and therefore, we aren't getting any fast break points. Turnovers don't seem to be a problem, however, so it's all about working for open shots.

The offense ... is .. broken. This team isn't moving without the ball, and FAR too many times players are just trying to take their man one-on-one. One of the pillars of Dean Smith's offensive philosophy was to move the defense. This team looks like they have never heard that phrase, yet every one of those coaches played for Smith.

Not only are the coaches asleep at the wheel coaching offense, they are asleep at defense, too. This team is not bad individually on defense like last year's team, however Hubert Davis sat back and let Indiana go for 0.97 points per possession without implementing any defensive changes. We saw him do absolutely nothing in response to Caleb Grill torching Caleb Love two games before. He isn't using the bench as a motivator and isn't using the bench to keep players fresh. These starters are worn out. As far as the guys on the bench, all I have to say is that Dontrez Syles must have an amazing girlfriend in Chapel Hill.

It's only the beginning of December, but it is disturbing to see this veteran team so far behind the rest of college basketball in key areas. This team's specialty was offense last season, and now they look like a bad, selfish NBA team.
 
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