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Stat Review: Miami (2/13/23)

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
113
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%4435
UNC_statBox_30.png

3FG%166
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2FG%6997
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FT%6019
UNC_statBox_20.png

fg%4624
UNC_statBox_20.png

3fg%4613
UNC_statBox_10.png

2fg%4748
UNC_statBox_45.png

ft%8513
UNC_statBox_10.png

PTS/POSS0.8834
UNC_statBox_30.png

pts/poss1.0014
UNC_statBox_10.png

TOTPOSS16233
UNC_statBox_30.png

POSDIF250
UNC_statBox_45.png

%LOB1185
UNC_statBox_80.png

%lob1650
UNC_statBox_45.png

SmithIdx-0.222014
UNC_statBox_10.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.210
UNC_statBox_0.png

ast/to0.6975
UNC_statBox_75.png

%from32390
UNC_statBox_95.png

%FROM347.098
UNC_statBox_95.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
With the NCAA bubble getting closer to bursting, UNC hosted Miami with a chance to get a quality win to build to a very weak tournament resume. With the game essentially knotted at the half, UNC game out of the locker room and put on another abysmal performance.

For the game UNC shot 16% from 3, the 6th percentile, and jacked up 47% of their shots from there. Thankfully UNC was 69% from inside the arc, the 21st best shooting performance inside the arc since 1996. UNC also took care of the ball reasonably well. It resulted in a poor 0.88 points per possession performance on offense. UNC also got a 2 possession rebounding advantage.

The cardinal sign that this offense is broken? 0.21 assists/FGM. Only THREE TIMES in the last 984 games has UNC shared the ball more poorly. They've only had 52 performances of worse 3-point shooting.

Defensively they had no answer for Miami all game long, allowing Miami to score 1.00 points per possession despite only shooting 46% from the floor overall.

I was thinking that after the psychological meltdown last weekend, we'd see that the coaching staff had tuned up this offense and gotten them focused on running a team game. The second half showed us that this team and its coaches really didn't learn anything from last week. I would like to ask any of the coaches why, when the team is shooting its nearly all-time highest inside the arc and one of the program's worst games outside the arc, are they still forcing the 3 by taking almost half of their shots from there?

I just don't think this group of players is ever going to figure it out. Their post-season lives are on the line and they still can't recognize why. Their offensive and defensive points per possession are almost exactly equal to last season's team, but they are trending downward this season. I think we are realizing more and more that last season's March run was just a magic miracle a la the 2000 run.
 
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