Stat Review: VT (2/17/24)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	51	74
3FG%	33	43
2FG%	60	83
FT%	83	85
fg%	42	49
3fg%	27	73
2fg%	51	28
ft%	90	7
PTS/POSS	1.10	89
pts/poss	0.99	16
TOTPOSS	169	51
POSDIF	5	66
%LOB	10	87
%lob	7	4
SmithIdx	0.0156	56
Interesting Stats
ast/poss	0.16	49
AST/FG	0.51	30
OR%	0.42	79
or%	0.21	66
%FROM3	30.9	58

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
After losing 3 of their last 5 games, the Heels returned to face Virginia Tech, a team that is dangerous in their place, but not so great on the road. The Heels came away with a 15 point win mainly on offensive play.

UNC scored an outstanding 1.10 points per possession mainly due to a combination of good shooting all around and taking care of the ball. UNC turned if over on 10% of their possessions, which ranks as the 115th best performance in the last 1016 games. It was the 4th time this season the team has scored at least 1.10 points per possession.

UNC rebounded the ball well, getting a 5-possession advantage over the Hokies.

Defensively it was not a good day. Virginia Tech ended the game with 0.99 points per possession and just 7% Loss of Ball. It was the 28th lowest %LOB by an opponent in the last 1016 games, and the problem of not forcing turnovers continues to keep this team from greatness. This was a blowout with good defensive pressure, and we just aren't seeing it from this team.

Next up is at Virginia. This is a team that is holding teams to a nation-low 0.806 points per possession. Only Iowa St., Merrimack, Rutgers, Saint Mary's, McNeese, and Houston are playing better defense. As well, UVA only averages 141.7 possessions per game, the slowest in the nation by almost 4 possessions per game.

UNC is averaging 0.978 points per possession, so even splitting the difference between its average and UVA opponents' averages, we should expect to see UNC score 0.8965 points per possession, at UVA's tempo, resulting in 64 UNC points. That will be a culture shock to this team, so they have to focus on defense this week.

UVA doesn't rebound the ball well, and that will likely be a key statistic to watch in this game.

 

[kjcooper]

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