Stats and stuff (Tulane game)...

[gary-7]

...and how cool is it to have Carolina Basketball back?!!

Anyway, let's get to it. As with many season openers this one had its ups and downs and some downright "meh" facets, but a lotta good as well. Starting with the obvious.

Stats:
The good numbers:
- Two pieces of summer intel came to fruition tonight.
First, working with Hubert, Justin changed his shot (jumper and FT), adding some much-needed arc. As you saw, that paid off. No more front-rim bricks! Career offensive game for JJ. And not only a career-high 27 pts, he did it efficiently --- 9/12 FGs, 4/5 3s, 5/6 FTs. "Walking Buckets" had his full arsenal on display.

Second, word was Joel Berry was just making the entire game of basketball look too easy this summer, even against the pros ---- and he could score pretty much whenever he decided to. JB played a complete game tonight --- and here's where box scores can be just flat wrong with road-game scorekeepers --- as y'all know I keep these pretty tightly and JB's real line was as follows: 23 pts, 6 Assists (not 4), 5 rebounds (not 6) and 0 TOs (not 1). BTW, the rebound/TO discrepancy came from a loose ball he never had possession of that got knocked out of bounds, which should have counted as neither a rebound nor a TO. He also had 2 Steals, 2 Caused TOs and 5 Assists blown.

- 45% from 3 as a team. I'll take it.

- After a very shaky start from the line, we finished with 72% which is tolerable.

- We had 14 true Fast Break pts, and 26 off the Secondary Break.

- Woo-hoo! Hicks only committed 3 fouls in 25 minutes (cutting last season's ratio in half)!!!, and had a strong, efficient line 16 and 6, with 7/8 FGs and 2/2 FTs.

- Kennedy was a beast on the glass with 15 boards, incl 7 Offensive, and was sneaky-good on defense.

The not so good numbers:
- I realize 49.3% ain't awful, but let's be honest, we should have shot well over 50% against this bunch who had nothing for us in the paint, especially since we were 45% from 3. Our 2 pt pct was disappointing at just over 50% (25/49). That was reflected in us having 17 Blown Assists as a team, which is entirely too many.

- Speaking of which, despite an otherwise good game, Kennedy needs to put the ball in the hole better --- 4/13 FGs and 1/4 FTs --- c'mon big guy!

- Speaking of otherwise good games, JJ needs to hit the defensive glass stronger, especially as our opponents get stronger. he had 1 more rebound than Wanda tonight. We allowed too many Offensive Rebounds and we need help from the 3-hole to prevent that.

Stuff:
- Luke didn't stuff the stat sheet but he played a good all-around game and hustled his butt off.

- When we had the right lineups going, the transition game looked like vintage Carolina mid-season form. When we didn't, that was another matter altogether.

- Tony had a nice offensive game, but his freshman defensive footwork and failure to beat his man to the spot got him in trouble more than once. Learning curve.

- Nate has improved immensely on defense but we're gonna need him to be able to score the rock more.

- For the millionth time, JB is a NASTY DOG and an opposing PG's nightmare. I also love seeing him take the ball to the rack and get to the FT line. And while we're at it, does anyone else expect every 3 he takes to splash these days?

- We scrambled a little a played some 30 defense and it worked very well --- was hoping to see some 40 like we did in the exhibition. I'll tell ya though, JB, KW and JJ are damned good together defensively on the perimeter and our starting Bigs and Luke did very well in Help-D (Tony will learn).

- On the negative side, WE MISS THEO. It really f***s with the rotation. And damn, things bog down when we have to go to the bench on the perimeter. I'm not at all a fan of how that is working right now, so let's just say JB and JJ need to be prepared to go 35 minutes when the competition stiffens (and that will be too soon for comfort).

Anyway --- good opening road win, BUT buckle up. There's a hella-good Chattanooga team coming in Sunday and we'd damned well better be ready!...

 

[DSouthr]

First off, what a treat, to finally be able to see our guys back out on that court, finally got to see more than some damn clips! LOL

Justin Jackson was outstanding, if he can shot this consistently then every opponents we face will have their hands full. But got to be careful to trust his mates a little more on the defensive end and not leave your guy. Joel Berry, damn, kid just emotes leadership, it is one thing to be able to score but to turn this game by establishing himself defensively, well that is just special stuff right there. Hicks was really solid but I think he can and needs to take it up a notch and become a lil more dominate at times. This starting trio was outstanding playing together but found myself more than once wondering how much better it may have looked with a healthy Theo out there. One other fella that stood out to me was Tony, hated he got in to some foul trouble, didn't like a couple of those calls but this time of the year the refs call a lot of ticky tack.

Meeks, He did a lot of good but those missed shots and those missed free throws, he is a better shooter than that, glad he took it up a notch in that second half cause his first half was not great. Kenny Williams, felt like he fit in well with the staring unit but really didn't establish himself as a scoring threat. 3 good jumpers off the top of my head and all looked solid but rimmed out but he did not get a lot of open looks, some of that he could work harder for but the good part is his man stayed with him and didn't double off to harass Joel or double down a big. Other teams will try to double off him, he is going to have to knock down when they do to punish them for it. Nate, not a good shooting night, have to rewatch to be sure but impression was he was better defensively and seemed to push the ball a lil better offensively but he really needs to hit some of those shots.

Luke, OK, guess we see that we were not playing Pembrook last night but for his role played solid, put it this way, much more solid than last season but I don't see 20mins a game just yet. 7th Woods, couple sweet passes mixed in with some WTF. Didn't see the 7th Woods I have seen, I don't think the kid is 100%, that kid has a after burner that is outstanding and I didn't see it last night thou he had some ops to show it. He was clearly thinking more than playing and you expect that from a freshman, especially a freshman PG trying to learn the PG role. Hold the jury out for a while on him.

BRob, IDK, like the kid, IMO has some Theo in him, he works but can we get momma dips to put on a 3rd shift to bulk this kid up some! LOL Nice stroke, sloppy ball handle, really needs to clean those handles up, coupe of really nice slip passes, one to Hicks cutting down the lane was sweet sweet. For now like him more as a 2 but those ball handles are a bit scary right now.

Tony Bradley, yeah he lost his man a few times on the defensive end, yeah he picked up some fouls, no he was not flashy and no he was not the star of this game. But what he did show me was a glimpse of things to come, I don't think there is any question who our first big man off the bench should be and being honest I think I like him more as a starter at the 5. Kid is long, not sure if they gave him a block but he altered stuff inside. Ball comes in to him deep he takes his time, doesn't rush things and makes it look easy, he is going to become that guy we can dump it inside to and punish defenses with. Want to see some jump hook action Tony! IMO he wil ljust get better and better thru this season, spend a lot of time in the weight room over the next summer and blow up as a soph, we will be very fortunate to get a Jr season from him.

I guess this was a typical opening game, lots to work on and lot of Roy tinkering with different combinations and not having Theo was a glaring hole. Want to see meeks, kenny, and nate take things up a notch.

 

[HeelFan58]

I would have liked to have seen a little more scoring from Luke , Kenny Williams , Brandon Robinson and Britt. Everybody wasn't playing Pembroke last night , so why single out Luke?
Luke had 1 fewer rebound than Bradley.

 

[DSouthr]

I would have liked to have seen a little more scoring from Luke , Kenny Williams , Brandon Robinson and Britt. Everybody wasn't playing Pembroke last night , so why single out Luke?
Luke had 1 fewer rebound than Bradley.

LOL, did you feel Luke and Tony played nearly as equally effective? Cause I didn't see that game, what I saw was clearly Tony being at very least the first big off the bench. What I have read for the last week was all about Luke. We gonna be discussing a few days worth of how great Luke played last night as we did after Pembrook? No offense toward Luke but kinda time for more reality in what to expect cause the spin was making me dizzy!

 

[imajericho]

Meeks offensive rebounds for the most part go with his lpw fg %. If he wasn't missing ducks and getting his rebounds off them he would have just had more points and less rebounds. I'd prefer the more points personally.

 

[Butterbutt44]

Its very obvious to me at least that Luke playing big minutes for this team will lower our potential. Its scary for me to think in the future we may be relying heavily on him. I like that he hustles and rebounds well against lesser competition but...We need Theo back so Luke can be in a more comfortable role both for himself and our rotation. I also am yet to be sold on Kenny Williams in almost any capacity except defensively.

 

[gary-7]

LOL, did you feel Luke and Tony played nearly as equally effective? Cause I didn't see that game, what I saw was clearly Tony being at very least the first big off the bench. What I have read for the last week was all about Luke. We gonna be discussing a few days worth of how great Luke played last night as we did after Pembrook? No offense toward Luke but kinda time for more reality in what to expect cause the spin was making me dizzy!

Well, let's be honest, Tony was lost defensively when he had to stray from the blocks, and again, that's a freshman thing and needing to get quicker with his footwork (which will come). Luke was clearly better on that end of the floor. But the thing is, it's NOT a matter of one OR the other. As Roy laid out last week, there's not a Big rotation per se this season --- there's a "4" rotation (Hicks/Maye) and a "5" rotation (Meeks/Bradley), and given their respective skills, that is as it should be.

It's not like there was some wall hit. Luke just didn't have as many scoring ops last night but he was very effective and, again, will likely have as many minutes as Tony in most games, depending on how much time Hicks and/or Meeks have to spend on the bench in a given game. There was no "spin", Dave. Luke is a player and will be a major cog on this team.

In fact, I'm happy with the state of our four Bigs and it should only get better. The issue we
are gonna face against better opponents is on the perimeter. While I trust Nate to give us good minutes because of his experience, 7th and BRob are another matter at this point in their careers, and when those three were on the floor together it wasn't pretty. The ball was getting stuck in no-man's land and the spacing and continuity went south. And you know I love Roy, but I don't mind saying I am disappointed with the strategy of trying to force-feed 7th into the PG position. I believe he could help us more quickly off the ball.

 

[gary-7]

Its very obvious to me at least that Luke playing big minutes for this team will lower our potential. Its scary for me to think in the future we may be relying heavily on him. I like that he hustles and rebounds well against lesser competition but...We need Theo back so Luke can be in a more comfortable role both for himself and our rotation. I also am yet to be sold on Kenny Williams in almost any capacity except defensively.

Luke and Kenny are fine and will both be major parts of this team, Theo or no Theo.

 

[Butterbutt44]

Luke and Kenny are fine and will both be major parts of this team, Theo or no Theo.

I know. I said they will play major roles. Wether thats a great thing or not remains to be seen. I think both would be much more effective in lesser roles, but I hope Im wrong.

 

[dadika13]

I loved what I saw last night. I had a few preseason keys to this team:

1. Justin stepping up.
2. JB being the best PG in the country
3. Tony being a force off the bench

My god did we get those 3 last night. I love this team.

 

[HeelFan58]

LOL, did you feel Luke and Tony played nearly as equally effective? Cause I didn't see that game, what I saw was clearly Tony being at very least the first big off the bench. What I have read for the last week was all about Luke. We gonna be discussing a few days worth of how great Luke played last night as we did after Pembrook? No offense toward Luke but kinda time for more reality in what to expect cause the spin was making me dizzy!

You missed the point entirely.

 

[CarolinaBlue5]

Well, let's be honest, Tony was lost defensively when he had to stray from the blocks, and again, that's a freshman thing and needing to get quicker with his footwork (which will come). Luke was clearly better on that end of the floor. But the thing is, it's NOT a matter of one OR the other. As Roy laid out last week, there's not a Big rotation per se this season --- there's a "4" rotation (Hicks/Maye) and a "5" rotation (Meeks/Bradley), and given their respective skills, that is as it should be.

It's not like there was some wall hit. Luke just didn't have as many scoring ops last night but he was very effective and, again, will likely have as many minutes as Tony in most games, depending on how much time Hicks and/or Meeks have to spend on the bench in a given game. There was no "spin", Dave. Luke is a player and will be a major cog on this team.

In fact, I'm happy with the state of our four Bigs and it should only get better. The issue we
are gonna face against better opponents is on the perimeter. While I trust Nate to give us good minutes because of his experience, 7th and BRob are another matter at this point in their careers, and when those three were on the floor together it wasn't pretty. The ball was getting stuck in no-man's land and the spacing and continuity went south. And you know I love Roy, but I don't mind saying I am disappointed with the strategy of trying to force-feed 7th into the PG position. I believe he could help us more quickly off the ball.

I would like to see Seventh off the ball a little more too! A lot actually..I think it's fine to get him some minutes at point but I think right now he would be much more effective playing with Berry some off the ball! It'll also help ease him into gameplay and flow! I love Roy but I hate when he goes with the entire second unit at once for long periods of time! We're much better when he spot subs like later in the season! I understand he wants to get players time and experience but it hurts most of the time doing it at once! It's a good way to keep a lower tier team in the game and a recipe for upsets

 

[CarolinaBlue5]

For the most part I liked what I saw last night! Gonna be a fun team to watch!!

 

[DSouthr]

Well, let's be honest, Tony was lost defensively when he had to stray from the blocks, and again, that's a freshman thing and needing to get quicker with his footwork (which will come). Luke was clearly better on that end of the floor. But the thing is, it's NOT a matter of one OR the other. As Roy laid out last week, there's not a Big rotation per se this season --- there's a "4" rotation (Hicks/Maye) and a "5" rotation (Meeks/Bradley), and given their respective skills, that is as it should be.

It's not like there was some wall hit. Luke just didn't have as many scoring ops last night but he was very effective and, again, will likely have as many minutes as Tony in most games, depending on how much time Hicks and/or Meeks have to spend on the bench in a given game. There was no "spin", Dave. Luke is a player and will be a major cog on this team.

In fact, I'm happy with the state of our four Bigs and it should only get better. The issue we
are gonna face against better opponents is on the perimeter. While I trust Nate to give us good minutes because of his experience, 7th and BRob are another matter at this point in their careers, and when those three were on the floor together it wasn't pretty. The ball was getting stuck in no-man's land and the spacing and continuity went south. And you know I love Roy, but I don't mind saying I am disappointed with the strategy of trying to force-feed 7th into the PG position. I believe he could help us more quickly off the ball.

Well, let's be honest, Tony was lost defensively when he had to stray from the blocks, and again, that's a freshman thing and needing to get quicker with his footwork (which will come). Luke was clearly better on that end of the floor. But the thing is, it's NOT a matter of one OR the other. As Roy laid out last week, there's not a Big rotation per se this season --- there's a "4" rotation (Hicks/Maye) and a "5" rotation (Meeks/Bradley), and given their respective skills, that is as it should be.

It's not like there was some wall hit. Luke just didn't have as many scoring ops last night but he was very effective and, again, will likely have as many minutes as Tony in most games, depending on how much time Hicks and/or Meeks have to spend on the bench in a given game. There was no "spin", Dave. Luke is a player and will be a major cog on this team.

In fact, I'm happy with the state of our four Bigs and it should only get better. The issue we
are gonna face against better opponents is on the perimeter. While I trust Nate to give us good minutes because of his experience, 7th and BRob are another matter at this point in their careers, and when those three were on the floor together it wasn't pretty. The ball was getting stuck in no-man's land and the spacing and continuity went south. And you know I love Roy, but I don't mind saying I am disappointed with the strategy of trying to force-feed 7th into the PG position. I believe he could help us more quickly off the ball.

gary, my point about Luke is not to demean the kid, it is more that I feel like we are getting the expectations up a bit to high & fast for the kid to be able to live up to. We build a kid up to high and when he can not hit those expectations he gets torched and I don't want to see him have to go thru the tearing down stage.

There will be games Luke plays really well for us depending on the match ups and other games he will be less of a factor but it was starting to strike me as nearing ALL ACC level spin on him and I just feel we need to pump the brakes a lil bit.

 

[DSouthr]

I would like to see Seventh off the ball a little more too! A lot actually..I think it's fine to get him some minutes at point but I think right now he would be much more effective playing with Berry some off the ball! It'll also help ease him into gameplay and flow! I love Roy but I hate when he goes with the entire second unit at once for long periods of time! We're much better when he spot subs like later in the season! I understand he wants to get players time and experience but it hurts most of the time doing it at once! It's a good way to keep a lower tier team in the game and a recipe for upsets

7th is physically just not himself right now guys, coming back from a knee injury and more recent a high ankle sprain that has him limited right now. What was it, 2 weeks ago now Roy shared he was about 70%? As if that is not bad enough he is a freshman and trying to learn to be a PG at one of the most hard programs in the country for any PG to come in and get a good feel for. Truth is 7th is an "amigo" PG, not a true PG, by amigo PG I mean he is more the 2 guard in a duo PG set, what Marcus was as a frosh while Dex was more the lead, what Marcus was last season as Joel took over the lead. But Roy has to get him some PG experience because if Joel does leave after this season Jalek is going to need someone with experience to help him with the transition.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I would like to see Seventh off the ball a little more too! A lot actually..I think it's fine to get him some minutes at point but I think right now he would be much more effective playing with Berry some off the ball! It'll also help ease him into gameplay and flow!

I'd like to see that, too.

Maybe Roy doesn't want to give him too many things to think about this early.

 

[Archer2]

Game one guys. We will be seeing many different combinations in the next several games. I imagine we may see 7th playing some at both guard spots. I know his experiments are going to drive some fans to distraction but they will enable him to develop our bench and will make us better down the road.

Patience, weedhoppers.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I compute these simple stats for some games. Usually they just reinforce what I think I saw, but occasionally they cast a different light on a player.

This time Kennedy stands out as better than I thought. I knew he had great rebounding numbers, but he shot poorly. But in this measure, the net of his efforts actually led the team.

Kennedy - 27-3/22 = 1.09
Joel - 35-4/30 = 1.03
Justin - 32-4/29 = 0.96

Isaiah - 23-5/25 = 0.72

Tony - 15-6/17 = 0.53
Kenny - 12-1/21 = 0.52
Brandon - 5-0/10 = 0.50

Luke - 10-4/14 = 0.43
Seventh - 8-4/10 = 0.40
Nate - 7-2/18 = 0.28

The numbers are good things, minus bad things divided by minutes played - yielding a net number of good things per minute. Good things are points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. Bad things are turnovers and fouls.

While there's no firm rule for evaluating these numbers, I generally consider anything around 0.90 to be star quality, around 0.70 to be starter quality and around 0.50 to be role player quality.

In this game, for example, Kennedy, Joel and Justin performed at levels we would expect from guys like Hansbrough and Lawson while Isaiah was at the level of Green - just to pick examples most of us are familiar with.

 

[gary-7]

gary, my point about Luke is not to demean the kid, it is more that I feel like we are getting the expectations up a bit to high & fast for the kid to be able to live up to. We build a kid up to high and when he can not hit those expectations he gets torched and I don't want to see him have to go thru the tearing down stage.

There will be games Luke plays really well for us depending on the match ups and other games he will be less of a factor but it was starting to strike me as nearing ALL ACC level spin on him and I just feel we need to pump the brakes a lil bit.

C'mon D. Nobody has put any spin like that on him. The deal is he will be a mainstay member of our top-8 on this team (top-9 when Theo comes back). We're all hoping Hicks can give us 25+ minutes a night at the 4 and stay outta foul trouble. I'm more than happy having a versatile guy like Luke eating up that other 12-15.

 

[gary-7]

I'd like to see that, too.

Maybe Roy doesn't want to give him too many things to think about this early.

Well, yeah, that is what Roy said he was doing --- but if 7th is just gonna learn one position this year I just rather that would be off the ball.

I do understand the rationale though. If JB leaves next season and our other PGs graduate, then our depth behind Jalek would be sketchy. So yeah, I get it --- get him some floor experience early at the 1... however, I fear when things get tight this season Roy may not be able to afford that luxury.

 

[gary-7]

Addendum --- Some more numbers, by Guard combo:
Berry/Williams
20:40 UNC53-Tulane37

Berry/Britt
9:26 UNC25-Tulane16

Woods/Britt
8:33 UNC16-Tulane19

Berry on the floor
2.59 PPM, UNC +25

Berry not on the floor
1.75 PPM, UNC - 3

 

[DSouthr]

C'mon D. Nobody has put any spin like that on him. The deal is he will be a mainstay member of our top-8 on this team (top-9 when Theo comes back). We're all hoping Hicks can give us 25+ minutes a night at the 4 and stay outta foul trouble. I'm more than happy having a versatile guy like Luke eating up that other 12-15.

Lighten up frances! LOL In my best DiNero voice from Good Fellas "al little bit, yeah, you did a lil bit". It is all good, not disputing Luke deserves to be in our regular rotation and expect him to play more than our 4th big man Joel James, did last season.


But I would rather see Luke closer to 10-12 than 16 because at that level it means Hicks is not getting in to as much foul trouble and Tony is really helping us more than maybe was expected and that Meeks is back playing at a strong level.