The ACC's Bubble Teams

[What Would Jesus Do?]

At the moment Lunardi has...

Wake as the last team in
UNC as the first team out
SMU as the 3rd team out

Each team has 3 games left.

At a glance SMU has the easiest path, UNC next, Wake the hardest. While SMU doesn't have to play Duke (both UNC and Wake do), Pomeroy projects each team as likely to go 2-1 down the stretch.

If Pomeroy is right, SMU will snag the final double-bye in the ACC tournament.

Wake has beaten both UNC and SMU, so they should get the double-bye if SMU stumbles.

Team	Q1	Net SOS	ACC SOS	nonconf SOS	W-L	ACC W-L
UNC	1-10	32	5	7	18-11	11-6
Wake	2-6	68	8	232	19-9	11-6
SMU	0-5	85	13	285	21-7	12-5

[SOS numbers are ranks]

 

[Bubspub88]

That horrid 4 game stretch in late January (losing to Stanford, Wake and Pitt with OT win versus BC) is haunting the Heels. 3-1 over those games was easily doable and UNC would be in much more comfortable position right now.

And Wake/SMU non-conference SOS should keep them out. If you are not even playing a top 100 OOC schedule you should have to clearly be a top dog in the league to play in March.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

That horrid 4 game stretch in late January (losing to Stanford, Wake and Pitt with OT win versus BC) is haunting the Heels. 3-1 over those games was easily doable and UNC would be in much more comfortable position right now.

And Wake/SMU non-conference SOS should keep them out. If you are not even playing a top 100 OOC schedule you should have to clearly be a top dog in the league to play in March.

I agree on both points.

We're definitely being bitten by our tough OCSOS. We played 11 Quad 1 games, winning only 1. If we had only played 8 like Wake, we could be 1-7. Still not great, but less harmful - especially if you think we would have beaten 2 or 3 of the replacements teams.

That change would move our overall record to 20-9 or even 21-8. Sure, it would ding our SOS ranking but more wins look better.

We Carolina fans have always been proud of playing a tough schedule (including on the road). So it's hard to argue we should stop. But this year has been rough.

 

[JimmyinVA]

...We Carolina fans have always been proud of playing a tough schedule (including on the road). So it's hard to argue we should stop...

i would argue we should stop. making the tourn and getting a higher seed is more beneficial to the program than sitting home and bragging how tough our schedule was.

 

[Bubspub88]

i would argue we should stop. making the tourn and getting a higher seed is more beneficial to the program than sitting home and bragging how tough our schedule was.

I am old enough to remember when we consistently went into the tournament with a high seed AND bragged about playing a tough schedule

 

[NathanFielder]

Was it updated after this post?

Men's Bracketology: Rick Pitino could give Big East a fifth title this century

St. John's hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since March 16, 2000. That's going to change this year.

www.espn.com

From what I'm seeing:

Last 4 In:
- Oklahoma
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Texas

First 4 Out:
- Georgia
- UNC
- Boise State
- Xavier

Next 4 Out:
- Wake Forest
- SMU
- Cincinnati
- Nova

I don't follow this closely. I'm just surprised that Oklahoma is 4-11 and Texas is 5-10 in the SEC and projected in right now. And a 5-10 SEC Georgia is projected higher than UNC. Obviously the SEC is on a different planet than the ACC but that's a lot of losing that's projected to get rewarded.

I think there's a good chance that at least 1 of Oklahoma/Texas/Georgia eliminates themselves. I think Ohio State and Indiana play one another so one of them might eliminate themselves. Of course the conference tournament will bring in a different variable.

Not sure, it seems like UNC needs to beat either Duke or maybe get to the ACC Final to get in. And they may need to win the ACC Final if there's chaos on their side of the bracket.

Wake probably needs to beat Duke to get in at this point since they've collapsed. SMU needs to win the ACC Tournament to get in. They haven't beat anyone.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

i would argue we should stop. making the tourn and getting a higher seed is more beneficial to the program than sitting home and bragging how tough our schedule was.

I wonder how much of the 2025-26 OOC schedule is already set in stone?

With all the new staff and promised money, I imagine most of us look forward to a strong squad next year. So maybe continue with a tough schedule?

Looking at this year's schedule, all the Quad 1 matchups were predictably Quad 1. In addition, a couple in-conference games would have been Quad 1 in some previous years - home against UVa and @ NC State, for example. Without Ingram and Bacot, this year's team probably doesn't beat last year's State on the road - maybe not at home, either.