What type of season do you think he will have.I feel he will average around 8 to 10 ppg and a few steals.Along with being the team best defensive player.
Theo Junior season..
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I agree with those numbers. Theo has to develope a go to offensive move, a spot on the floor he can shot 50 percent. Right now he is good at a lot of things but a master of none. Another player along with Britt that will see there numbers increase with more PT.
Pinson is a guy that I could still see being a NBA player. JJ coming back may hurt Pinson because I would assume his natural position is at the wing (although he plays several positions). For Pinsin it is simple, shots have got to start falling and maybe better balance on his jumpers would help.
Pinson is a guy that I could still see being a NBA player. JJ coming back may hurt Pinson because I would assume his natural position is at the wing (although he plays several positions). For Pinsin it is simple, shots have got to start falling and maybe better balance on his jumpers would help.
Roy's comments were on target. He emphasized 2 things: shooting and focus.
We've all talked about how Theo needs to improve his shooting. Form, consistency, percentage. Especially his outside shooting. Most of us are OK with his driving, but wish he'd do more of it.
I've raised the focus point a number of times so I'm glad to see Roy give attention to this point. We all recognize that Theo is a great defender at times and could be our best defender. Except that he loses focus too often. As Roy said, he too often follows the ball and stops following his man, leading to predictably negative consequences.
I'm of the view that this coming season will depend a lot on Theo. Other people matter, too. But especially Theo. And the reason I feel that way is because he has the potential to be so good, but it isn't clear he will actually become that player.
We've all talked about how Theo needs to improve his shooting. Form, consistency, percentage. Especially his outside shooting. Most of us are OK with his driving, but wish he'd do more of it.
I've raised the focus point a number of times so I'm glad to see Roy give attention to this point. We all recognize that Theo is a great defender at times and could be our best defender. Except that he loses focus too often. As Roy said, he too often follows the ball and stops following his man, leading to predictably negative consequences.
I'm of the view that this coming season will depend a lot on Theo. Other people matter, too. But especially Theo. And the reason I feel that way is because he has the potential to be so good, but it isn't clear he will actually become that player.
Theo is the one guy on the team that I really don't know what to expect from this year. He has the athleticism to make a big jump and become a real force. But I just haven't seen enough basketball talent from him to know that's going to happen. Plus, he's built for the SF position and we already have a guy there. We need shooting from the SG position and that's not his strength. He's a good defender when he's locked in, but as we've seen, he loses focus and gets beat too often. But on the flip side, he's active, has great spring, plays the passing lanes, is a creative and deft passer - probably the best on the team. I like his attitude and I think he's coachable. But even in a best-case scenario, I'm not sure I really know what Theo can be. Is he a slasher/scorer type? Is he just a primary defender? A distributor? A team leader? What is the ceiling for Theo? I don't know and I don't think Roy even knows. He's kind of an enigma.
The whole team scored 3311 points last season. 82.8 per game.
Theo scored 181. 5.4% of the total team points.
For comparison, here are the numbers of all top-minutes players:
Pts Name (% of total team points)
678 Brice (20.4%)
428 Marcus (15.2%)*
511 JoelB (15.4%)
487 Justin (14.7%)
304 Kennedy (11.1%)*
357 Isaiah (10.8%)
212 Nate (6.6%)*
181 Theo (5.4%)
(* Marcus, Kennedy and Nate missed some games; their percentages have been adjusted to reflect that.)
So . . . we are losing roughly 35% of our our scoring, just from Brice and Marcus. Where do we think it's going to come from?
In the front court, Isaiah, Kennedy, Luke and Tony need to make up Brice's 20.4% for us to break even.
Although I expect some improvements from Joel and Justin, Theo is the guy who really needs to step up to replace the 15.2% we'll miss by Marcus' departure. That's 3 times what Theo produced last year. Even if he plays Marcus' minutes, he'll have to show much more than normal year-to-year improvement to make up the loss of Marcus' scoring.
Obviously we have other guys who will help - Nate, Kenny, 7th, Brandon. If Theo steps into Marcus' shoes, someone else will have to step into Theo's shoes. But that difference between Theo's production last year and what Marcus produced is a big part of the reason why I say a lot of how next season goes will depend on how Theo develops.
Theo scored 181. 5.4% of the total team points.
For comparison, here are the numbers of all top-minutes players:
Pts Name (% of total team points)
678 Brice (20.4%)
428 Marcus (15.2%)*
511 JoelB (15.4%)
487 Justin (14.7%)
304 Kennedy (11.1%)*
357 Isaiah (10.8%)
212 Nate (6.6%)*
181 Theo (5.4%)
(* Marcus, Kennedy and Nate missed some games; their percentages have been adjusted to reflect that.)
So . . . we are losing roughly 35% of our our scoring, just from Brice and Marcus. Where do we think it's going to come from?
In the front court, Isaiah, Kennedy, Luke and Tony need to make up Brice's 20.4% for us to break even.
Although I expect some improvements from Joel and Justin, Theo is the guy who really needs to step up to replace the 15.2% we'll miss by Marcus' departure. That's 3 times what Theo produced last year. Even if he plays Marcus' minutes, he'll have to show much more than normal year-to-year improvement to make up the loss of Marcus' scoring.
Obviously we have other guys who will help - Nate, Kenny, 7th, Brandon. If Theo steps into Marcus' shoes, someone else will have to step into Theo's shoes. But that difference between Theo's production last year and what Marcus produced is a big part of the reason why I say a lot of how next season goes will depend on how Theo develops.
Actually, Luke and Tony have to make up Brice's 20% alone (along with increased production from Hicks and Meeks). Because Hicks and Meeks have their own percentages to keep. It's funny you didn't think of that when you made the first quoted statement above but then you recognized that in the second statement I quoted.
Meeks and Hicks will outperform their percentages from last year by at least 4% each.
I think focus/consistency is biggest need of growth for Theo. If he does that the rest will take care of it'self. I feel good about Theo this year. Feel like he is going to be our junkyard dog/glue guy that is going to do all the little things needed so the other 4 main guys can do what they all do well which is score. Theo being able to take more defensive pressure off of Jackson when it comes to guarding the top wing player on the other sideline as well. Let Jackson focus more on being the scorer we need him to be. Let Theo be Theo and play to his strengths. Really could see Theo as a 10-5-5 guy this season with a 45-35-75 shooting line at around 22-25 MPG
Oh, I was thinking about it all along, but just didn't want to over-complicate an already long post.
Ideally Isaiah takes over Brice's starting role and plays more minutes per game than his 18.1mpg last year.
Kennedy stays where he is, and also plays a few more minutes per game than his 20.6mpg last year.
Ideally, between the 2 of them our starting front line plays the same number of minutes (or more) as when Brice started.
If they score at the same rate they did last season, they will score 6 or 7 more points, combined. Whereas Brice's departure costs us 17 points. That puts us 10 points in the hole. So obviously they need to do better.
Meanwhile, someone has to pick up Isaiah's minutes and points along with and JoelJ's minutes and points. Because Isaiah is now Brice and JoelJ is gone.
We think Tony will be really good. OTOH, he's a freshman. He will be filling in for Isaiah, but do we really think he'll score as well as Isaiah did as a junior? Perhaps Luke will fill JoelJ's minutes. But will he pick up JoelJ's scoring? Luke scored at a lower rate per minute than JoelJ did last year.
I expect all those returning players to improve. But I'm not sure that they plus Tony can make up for Brice's scoring. To do so would not only require solid improvements, but also an exceptionally good freshman season from Tony.
Obviously if Isaiah and/or Kennedy have breakout season, things get easier.
I sure hope you're right. But there's not a ton a evidence to suggest that will be the case. I could see Hicks make a sizable jump in productivity. But his inability to stay out of foul trouble is a major concern. But with Meeks, man,...I don't know. He actually went backwards from soph to junior year so I think Meeks is what he is by this point. He's had the opportunities and just hasn't taken advantage of them. Sure, injuries have nagged him a bit but I think his ceiling is what we saw from him his sophomore year - about 10 and 6. I think expecting him to make a big jump is a scary proposition. So IMO, we need Bradley to be ready for the big leagues. And I suspect he will be. He might be our best big by season's end.
See my poast immediately above. I'm expecting big things from Tony. we need big things from Bradley. So much so that by season's end, we might be starting Hicks and Bradley. We'll see.
I remember Bossi saying that he really thought Roy liked Bradley because he was very reminiscent of Nick Collison at the same stage. Keep in mind Collison was a 11 and 7 guy in about 23 MPG his frosh season. If Roy can get 10-5 from Bradley in 20 MPG I think UNC is sitting pretty. Bradley is longer as well.
Will that be enough to make up for Brice?
On average Kennedy and Isaiah scored .47 points per minute. Add 4% improvement and you get .49 points per minute.
Last season, the starting duo of Brice and Kennedy scored .54 points per minute.
If we assume the starters play 50 minutes per game, a 4% improvement leaves them 2.5 points shy per game.
If I'm doing the math right, they would actually need to improve by nearly 15% to match last year's starters. (.47x=.54. x=1.149)
On Theo, I didn't know until Roy talked about it that Theo broke his foot in his senior yr HS and then again his frosh with us, knew about the later but not the first. That actually explains a lot of why he shoots as off balance as he does, he adopted that as a way to not land squarely on a hurt foot, it because a habit and habits are HARD to break.
Not gonna harp on it or explain again why but I do not like Theo at the 2. I love him at the wing and at the 4 in our small ball and he has helped us at both positions, I see him getting strong PT between those 2 positions. If he can solid out that jumper I would love him at the 2 but I have not seen any indication that can or has happened.
I see Theo getting 12-14mins at the wing and another 10 at least from the 4, some games more and some less, just depends on the ebb & flow of the game. I could see him as a 8-5-5 guy and playing hard nosed defense.
Not gonna harp on it or explain again why but I do not like Theo at the 2. I love him at the wing and at the 4 in our small ball and he has helped us at both positions, I see him getting strong PT between those 2 positions. If he can solid out that jumper I would love him at the 2 but I have not seen any indication that can or has happened.
I see Theo getting 12-14mins at the wing and another 10 at least from the 4, some games more and some less, just depends on the ebb & flow of the game. I could see him as a 8-5-5 guy and playing hard nosed defense.
Theo is a HUGE x-factor this year..he needs a consistent jumper, improved ball handling and more strength..his effort and talent is there..it's also staying healthy--nobody in the country even mentions that kid..Micky DAA has enough talent to make a big difference on both sides of the ball.
If he could turn into the type of player David Noel was by his Jr season, I would be more than thrilled!
The Theo we've seen is the Theo we will see the rest of his UNC career. Great energy, good defender, good rebounder, but limited offensively. Glad he's ours but don't expect some huge jump in production.
David Noel is great comparison. Guys that are so athletic they can do everything, and just a few steps from being dominate. IMHO some guys have so much athleticism that it is hard for them to gain sound fundamentals in there game. that is just my thoughts.
I'd be interested to hear why you think that. I am a believer that players can improve over 4yrs, not just frosh to soph.... and remember, Theo was injured last off season so it'll be interesting to see what he's achieved this summer.
I think theo will improve but relatively speaking, Theo looks a lot like the Theo we saw when he first came on campus. Below average shot, below average ability to create off the dribble, good defender, good energy. I've watched Theo play dating back to his early high school years. Great kid, great athlete but just not gifted offensively at the college level.
Oz, I think what goin is saying is that Theo can improve for sure, example I think he will be the best defender we have for the coming season but we have seen traits of his being able to defend. The one issues that sticks out way to clearly is Theo's shooting and I would have to agree, that I have not seen what I would need to see that tells me he will develop in to a serious jump shooting threat. I think we already expect him to improve in every other area but that one skill just seems as thou what we have is what we gonna get.
By the way, I so hope I am wrong about that!
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