Updated ESPN Rankings

[Calabrias Inferno]

It shouldn't be that hard to calculate, honestly. I mean, basketball-reference has a page with the top 100 high school players (RSCI) all the way back to 1998. One of the columns lists the draft selection of each player, if any. 2012, for example, shows that 12 out of 40 players ranked between 11-50 were drafted (30%), while 8 players ranked between 51-100 were drafted (16%). Start with 2012, the most recent class to graduate players from college, and work backwards.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2012.html

Edit: I noticed Brice Johnson wasn't credited for being drafted, but most everyone else that was drafted in 2016 was included. Makes you wonder if there are other omissions out there.

 

[gunslingerdick]

It shouldn't be that hard to calculate, honestly. I mean, basketball-reference has a page with the top 100 high school players (RSCI) all the way back to 1998. One of the columns lists the draft selection of each player, if any. 2012, for example, shows that 12 out of 40 players ranked between 11-50 were drafted (30%), while 8 players ranked between 51-100 were drafted (16%). Start with 2012, the most recent class to graduate players from college, and work backwards.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2012.html

Edit: I noticed Brice Johnson wasn't credited for being drafted, but most everyone else that was drafted in 2016 was included. Makes you wonder if there are other omissions out there.

 

[DSouthr]

It shouldn't be that hard to calculate, honestly. I mean, basketball-reference has a page with the top 100 high school players (RSCI) all the way back to 1998. One of the columns lists the draft selection of each player, if any. 2012, for example, shows that 12 out of 40 players ranked between 11-50 were drafted (30%), while 8 players ranked between 51-100 were drafted (16%). Start with 2012, the most recent class to graduate players from college, and work backwards.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2012.html

Edit: I noticed Brice Johnson wasn't credited for being drafted, but most everyone else that was drafted in 2016 was included. Makes you wonder if there are other omissions out there.

Well here is my thing, that is a great link, it would be very helpful to me if I cared how quickly a 5star kid actually went to the NBA. I really don't care about that, I care how they play at UNC, outside of that I don't really pay a ton of attention.

I don't really care where Marcus was drafted or in what round, I care that the kid represented this program in an excellent way for his 4yrs with us and wish he could have had another season. I don't care where Brice was drafted, I care how he played so well for us last season, love me some T-50, don't really care what he is doing in the NBA, I cared and loved his 4yrs with us.

I care how they play while in college ball, where they enter the league it is at most a minor distraction in a discussion. I could not tell you what team Brandan Wright plays for, I figure when they are in the NBA, they have a great life and I don't follow their league so my interest level is not huge.

Skal, went 1st round, what did he do in college is what I care about? Ingram went #2, I care that his team lost the ACC regular season crown to us and flamed out in both the ACCT and the NCAAT, hey, congrats on that by the way. The kid that went 1 in the draft Simmons, did not lead his team to the NCAAT much less in it. I would rather my Tar Heels play in the natty game with a bunch of 3 and 4 star players than flame out early with a bunch of 5 stars that get drafted in the first round of the draft.

Not dumping on you for this link, I imagine some do find it of interest nor am I dumping on those that are interested in that. But for me it is like the star rating of a kid coming in, I care more about the player we are getting than I do the rating they have coming in. Again, I had rather have a 3 star that plays like a 5 star when he gets to us than a 5 star that under achieves expectations.

Understand, I wish ALL our former players well, I am just not invested in the NBA and after all, how bad can their life be if they are cashing NBA pay checks, or Euro paychecks for that matter.

 

[Archer2]

Well here is my thing, that is a great link, it would be very helpful to me if I cared how quickly a 5star kid actually went to the NBA. I really don't care about that, I care how they play at UNC, outside of that I don't really pay a ton of attention.

I don't really care where Marcus was drafted or in what round, I care that the kid represented this program in an excellent way for his 4yrs with us and wish he could have had another season. I don't care where Brice was drafted, I care how he played so well for us last season, love me some T-50, don't really care what he is doing in the NBA, I cared and loved his 4yrs with us.

I care how they play while in college ball, where they enter the league it is at most a minor distraction in a discussion. I could not tell you what team Brandan Wright plays for, I figure when they are in the NBA, they have a great life and I don't follow their league so my interest level is not huge.

Skal, went 1st round, what did he do in college is what I care about? Ingram went #2, I care that his team lost the ACC regular season crown to us and flamed out in both the ACCT and the NCAAT, hey, congrats on that by the way. The kid that went 1 in the draft Simmons, did not lead his team to the NCAAT much less in it. I would rather my Tar Heels play in the natty game with a bunch of 3 and 4 star players than flame out early with a bunch of 5 stars that get drafted in the first round of the draft.

Not dumping on you for this link, I imagine some do find it of interest nor am I dumping on those that are interested in that. But for me it is like the star rating of a kid coming in, I care more about the player we are getting than I do the rating they have coming in. Again, I had rather have a 3 star that plays like a 5 star when he gets to us than a 5 star that under achieves expectations.

Understand, I wish ALL our former players well, I am just not invested in the NBA and after all, how bad can their life be if they are cashing NBA pay checks, or Euro paychecks for that matter.

I have a similar view Dave. I am mostly concerned with how well they do while at UNC. Once they leave UNC, I wish them well in whatever field they choose to enter. For basketball players, I wish them a chance to follow their dreams and perhaps play professional ball, and I wish the same thing for our football players. But since I don't follow pro sports much anymore, despite once being a very avid fan of most of them, I rarely make a point of checking to see how our former players are doing, something I used to do regularly.

The UNC experience should mostly be about preparing young people to enter the work force and make a living for themselves and their families. In that regard, I want every student who leaves UNC to prosper, whether it entails being a CPA or a middle linebacker. When a friend's grandchild graduates from UNC and gets a great job offer, that means as much or more to me than whether or not an athlete makes the pros because they're going out into the real world that 99% of us have to live in and not the fantasy world of professional sports millionaires.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Well here is my thing, that is a great link, it would be very helpful to me if I cared how quickly a 5star kid actually went to the NBA. I really don't care about that, I care how they play at UNC, outside of that I don't really pay a ton of attention.

I don't really care where Marcus was drafted or in what round, I care that the kid represented this program in an excellent way for his 4yrs with us and wish he could have had another season. I don't care where Brice was drafted, I care how he played so well for us last season, love me some T-50, don't really care what he is doing in the NBA, I cared and loved his 4yrs with us.

I care how they play while in college ball, where they enter the league it is at most a minor distraction in a discussion. I could not tell you what team Brandan Wright plays for, I figure when they are in the NBA, they have a great life and I don't follow their league so my interest level is not huge.

Skal, went 1st round, what did he do in college is what I care about? Ingram went #2, I care that his team lost the ACC regular season crown to us and flamed out in both the ACCT and the NCAAT, hey, congrats on that by the way. The kid that went 1 in the draft Simmons, did not lead his team to the NCAAT much less in it. I would rather my Tar Heels play in the natty game with a bunch of 3 and 4 star players than flame out early with a bunch of 5 stars that get drafted in the first round of the draft.

Not dumping on you for this link, I imagine some do find it of interest nor am I dumping on those that are interested in that. But for me it is like the star rating of a kid coming in, I care more about the player we are getting than I do the rating they have coming in. Again, I had rather have a 3 star that plays like a 5 star when he gets to us than a 5 star that under achieves expectations.

Understand, I wish ALL our former players well, I am just not invested in the NBA and after all, how bad can their life be if they are cashing NBA pay checks, or Euro paychecks for that matter.

I have a similar view Dave. I am mostly concerned with how well they do while at UNC. Once they leave UNC, I wish them well in whatever field they choose to enter. For basketball players, I wish them a chance to follow their dreams and perhaps play professional ball, and I wish the same thing for our football players. But since I don't follow pro sports much anymore, despite once being a very avid fan of most of them, I rarely make a point of checking to see how our former players are doing, something I used to do regularly.

The UNC experience should mostly be about preparing young people to enter the work force and make a living for themselves and their families. In that regard, I want every student who leaves UNC to prosper, whether it entails being a CPA or a middle linebacker. When a friend's grandchild graduates from UNC and gets a great job offer, that means as much or more to me than whether or not an athlete makes the pros because they're going out into the real world that 99% of us have to live in and not the fantasy world of professional sports millionaires.

While I also care little about the NBA, the question under discussion was more a matter of whether HS rankings are good at predicting how good players will be.

NBA draft status is one measure worth looking at. Not perfect, because it focuses too much on future potential (especially for kids who leave school early). But it also reflects how well they played in college.

Other measures - and perhaps better measures - would be to look at All America and All conference awards. Statistical measures like points and rebounds and assists are good, too.

Then, obviously, you would want to correct for injuries and such. And I'm sure there are other variables that should be considered. How would you rate someone like PJ, for example? We here think he would have been a star as a junior - consistent with his HS ranking - but he never got that chance.

Using these measures, you could also get a better idea of which rating sites do a better job of talent ranking.

 

[Calabrias Inferno]

Well here is my thing, that is a great link, it would be very helpful to me if I cared how quickly a 5star kid actually went to the NBA. I really don't care about that, I care how they play at UNC, outside of that I don't really pay a ton of attention.

I don't really care where Marcus was drafted or in what round, I care that the kid represented this program in an excellent way for his 4yrs with us and wish he could have had another season. I don't care where Brice was drafted, I care how he played so well for us last season, love me some T-50, don't really care what he is doing in the NBA, I cared and loved his 4yrs with us.

I care how they play while in college ball, where they enter the league it is at most a minor distraction in a discussion. I could not tell you what team Brandan Wright plays for, I figure when they are in the NBA, they have a great life and I don't follow their league so my interest level is not huge.

Skal, went 1st round, what did he do in college is what I care about? Ingram went #2, I care that his team lost the ACC regular season crown to us and flamed out in both the ACCT and the NCAAT, hey, congrats on that by the way. The kid that went 1 in the draft Simmons, did not lead his team to the NCAAT much less in it. I would rather my Tar Heels play in the natty game with a bunch of 3 and 4 star players than flame out early with a bunch of 5 stars that get drafted in the first round of the draft.

Not dumping on you for this link, I imagine some do find it of interest nor am I dumping on those that are interested in that. But for me it is like the star rating of a kid coming in, I care more about the player we are getting than I do the rating they have coming in. Again, I had rather have a 3 star that plays like a 5 star when he gets to us than a 5 star that under achieves expectations.

Understand, I wish ALL our former players well, I am just not invested in the NBA and after all, how bad can their life be if they are cashing NBA pay checks, or Euro paychecks for that matter.

You wrote 6 paragraphs to tell me and I suppose others that you're apathetic about the correlation between high school rankings and pro potential?

 

[DSouthr]

You wrote 6 paragraphs to tell me and I suppose others that you're apathetic about the correlation between high school rankings and pro potential?

And you wrote how many paragraphs to tell me that a 5 star ranking is a absolute guarantee that a kid will be a super star?

Look boss, no one is arguing that a 5 star ranked player is expected to be a first round NBA pick, who is suggesting a 5 star kid can't play in college or the NBA for that matter? But its gets sketchy when you try to make the case that a #115 ranked player is never going to be as the player ranked 110. I am telling you I don't care about star ratings because they don't tell me what kind of kid or player we are getting, IMO they only suggest a kid has potential. But that potential may not show itself until well after his college days. Should a kid that was a 3 star coming in yet started last season be replaced in that starting assignment by a in coming frosh 4star? Brice was a 4 star when he got to us and yet he was drafted in the first round, well then that would have made him a 5 star and not a 4? JMM was a 5 star coming to us and yet was drafted in the second round making him really a 4star. Seems to me the stars don't tell the whole story.

Was it so very important to add the snarky comment about how many paragraphs I wrote? Have I in any way been snarky toward you or your comments on this thread, have I been anything but respectful in what I have said to you in this thread?

 

[Calabrias Inferno]

"Look boss" seems a little snarky, actually.

And you wrote how many paragraphs to tell me that a 5 star ranking is a absolute guarantee that a kid will be a super star?

Look boss, no one is arguing that a 5 star ranked player is expected to be a first round NBA pick, who is suggesting a 5 star kid can't play in college or the NBA for that matter? But its gets sketchy when you try to make the case that a #115 ranked player is never going to be as the player ranked 110. I am telling you I don't care about star ratings because they don't tell me what kind of kid or player we are getting, IMO they only suggest a kid has potential. But that potential may not show itself until well after his college days. Should a kid that was a 3 star coming in yet started last season be replaced in that starting assignment by a in coming frosh 4star? Brice was a 4 star when he got to us and yet he was drafted in the first round, well then that would have made him a 5 star and not a 4? JMM was a 5 star coming to us and yet was drafted in the second round making him really a 4star. Seems to me the stars don't tell the whole story.

Was it so very important to add the snarky comment about how many paragraphs I wrote? Have I in any way been snarky toward you or your comments on this thread, have I been anything but respectful in what I have said to you in this thread?

 

[CanuckChuck]

Bottom line is this all is one huge CRAPSHOOT.. it really is

Look at this from a football perspective in a slightly different way Tow of the GREATEST QBs in NFL history were/are

Tom Brady and Joe Montana

Montana was a 4th round pick

Brady a sixth rounder

Compare that to the countless number of qbs drafted in the first round who were complete and total busts.

Same thing on on a lower level and a different sport can be said in BBall recruiting. How many top ten kids in HS have come along that never amounted to ANYTHING in college much less got a sniff in the pros ?? That list is way too long to compile.

Almost 40% of NFL Hall of Famers were picked in the 1st rd. No other round has more than 15%.
Doesn't look like a crapshoot at all. Looks like guys who look great before they have even stepped on the field generally perform better than those that don't look so great.

CC

 

[DSouthr]

"Look boss" seems a little snarky, actually.

Very cute, so I assume you no longer wish to discuss.

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

You wrote 6 paragraphs to tell me and I suppose others that you're apathetic about the correlation between high school rankings and pro potential?

Haaaaave ya met Dave?

 

[Ned Cota]

Is it possible, even just a small chance, that we could have just one thread about UNC basketball, and only UNC basketball, without somebody getting their panties in a bunch? Just one.

 

[montana_heel]

I agree with you Dave. Could care less about the NBA. Unfortunately, I don't think the high school kids we are trying to recruit have the same opinion.

To a certain degree, it is about the Jimmy's and the Joe's and not so much about the X's and O's. Gotta have a certain level of talent to compete year in and year out.

By the way, glad to see you posting again. You provide good input.

Lengthy ... but good.

 

[Calabrias Inferno]

Very cute, so I assume you no longer wish to discuss.

I don't think I was ever fully involved in the discussion as you seemed to have indicated in your previous post. I never made any projections or picks on who's most likely to star in college or the pros based on rankings. I merely provided a link where you can go and analyze that for yourself. Several posters were speculating what kind of correlations you could find between HS Rankings and actual performance. My link was relevant to them, but obviously not to you.

But for the sake of argument, yes, I do think there is a positive correlation between HS ranking and actual performance. Are there players outside of the top 50 that make All-American teams and the NBA? Yes, of course there are. But that's not the argument being made. There will always be lots of hits and misses for top talents. But generally speaking, if you're ranked higher, there's a higher probability that you will succeed. I'm sure if I actually took the time to aggregate the data, I could find concrete numbers for you.

 

[Sk1310]

"Look boss" seems a little snarky, actually.

Not really. He says it a lot