These stats are from the 2018 season so all the standard disclaimers apply. Click any of the images to enlarge.
Week 1 Stats: South Carolina vs. North Carolina
- Thread starter Raising Heel
- Start date
You put in a lot of work putting these statistical comparisons together, so thank you for your effort. However, I'm afraid one very large overriding statistic here sort of renders your data unstable: the strength of schedules for both programs respectively, for 2018. USC's SOS being ranked 23rd nationally, compared to UNC's SOS being ranked 59th.
It would be more helpful if the respective SOSs were within 10 or so ranking spots of each other, but 36 spots apart??
So, how do we compare this data? USC averaged 30.1 PPG on offense, against a much tougher opposing schedule than UNC faced? And UNC allowed 34.5 PPG, against a much weaker opposing schedule?
Your bar graphs seem to indicate that UNC's scoring defense - ranked 107th nationally (it was actually 106th) - is better than USC's scoring offense, which was ranked 56th in the nation. How does that work? It would have been better for that particular graph, if you compared both team's scoring offenses and defenses, etc. against each other, than comparing offense against defenses, when those offenses and defenses played against such disparate opposing strengths.
For instance, UNC's 107th (106th) scoring defense, against USC's 69th-ranked (67th) scoring defense. Then it would make sense - UNC's bar would still be higher, but in this comparison it's understandable that the higher the bar, the worse the statistical ranking is. Then one can factor in the fact that USC had by far the tougher SOS, and it makes the comparison even more stark: had it been UNC that had the far tougher SOS, one could rationalize why UNC's scoring defense was so worse than USC's. But the way you have the bar graph, it's not that clear.
Think of it like this: bar graphs are essentially a way to compare two or more items with each other, in a way that's easily to discern. The items can be different things (USC vs UNC), but what is being compared must be compared along a common theme or thread.
You can compare things like a car, a refrigerator, a sofa, a fancy artistic painting, a swimming pool, etc. They don't have to be the same things. But you need to find a commonality across all items to what it is you are comparing (how much each costs, how long each item maintains their value, etc.). If you try to compare the car's gas mileage, versus how cold the refrigerator gets, versus how many people the sofa can seat, versus what era of influence the painting was created in, versus how deep the pool is, well then your comparison graph is totally confusing.....
Another example: South Carolina's scoring defense - USC played against opponents with the following ranked scoring offenses:
Coastal Carolina: 84th
Georgia: 14th
Vanderbilt: T-68th
Kentucky: 85th
Missouri: 18th
Texas A&M: 19th
Tennessee: 108th
Mississippi: 30th
Florida: 22nd
Clemson: 4th
Akron: 124th
Virginia: T-68th
UNC's scoring offense - UNC played against opponents with the following ranked scoring defenses:
California: 22nd
East Carolina: 120th
Pittsburgh: 75th
Miami: 18th
Virginia Tech: 85th
Syracuse: 64th
Virginia: 21st
Georgia Tech: 79th
Duke: 72nd
North Carolina State: 45th
In 2018, USC faced one opponent with a top 10 scoring offense, four opponents with top 20 scoring offenses, five with top 25 scoring offenses, and six opponents with top 50 scoring offenses. USC went 2-4 against them.
UNC faced no opponents with a top 10 scoring defense, only one opponent in 2018 with a top 20 scoring defense, only three opponents with a top 25 scoring defense, and only four with a top 50 scoring defense. UNC went 0-4 against them.
So, your bar graph shows UNC's scoring offense being ranked 77th nationally, against USC's scoring defense which is ranked 69th nationally, and the implication would be to the untrained eye, that that isn't too different between the two. Likewise with UNC's 442.1 yds of total offense against USC's 424.3 yds of total offense allowed (total defense), in the top chart. It would imply that USC allows pretty much what UNC gains, so USC's defense may not inhibit UNC's offense all that much.
But this would be an inaccurate indicator, based on what types of offense USC went up against in 2018, versus what types of defenses UNC went up against. That's the apples to oranges your graphs are trying to compare.
It would be more helpful if the respective SOSs were within 10 or so ranking spots of each other, but 36 spots apart??
So, how do we compare this data? USC averaged 30.1 PPG on offense, against a much tougher opposing schedule than UNC faced? And UNC allowed 34.5 PPG, against a much weaker opposing schedule?
Your bar graphs seem to indicate that UNC's scoring defense - ranked 107th nationally (it was actually 106th) - is better than USC's scoring offense, which was ranked 56th in the nation. How does that work? It would have been better for that particular graph, if you compared both team's scoring offenses and defenses, etc. against each other, than comparing offense against defenses, when those offenses and defenses played against such disparate opposing strengths.
For instance, UNC's 107th (106th) scoring defense, against USC's 69th-ranked (67th) scoring defense. Then it would make sense - UNC's bar would still be higher, but in this comparison it's understandable that the higher the bar, the worse the statistical ranking is. Then one can factor in the fact that USC had by far the tougher SOS, and it makes the comparison even more stark: had it been UNC that had the far tougher SOS, one could rationalize why UNC's scoring defense was so worse than USC's. But the way you have the bar graph, it's not that clear.
Think of it like this: bar graphs are essentially a way to compare two or more items with each other, in a way that's easily to discern. The items can be different things (USC vs UNC), but what is being compared must be compared along a common theme or thread.
You can compare things like a car, a refrigerator, a sofa, a fancy artistic painting, a swimming pool, etc. They don't have to be the same things. But you need to find a commonality across all items to what it is you are comparing (how much each costs, how long each item maintains their value, etc.). If you try to compare the car's gas mileage, versus how cold the refrigerator gets, versus how many people the sofa can seat, versus what era of influence the painting was created in, versus how deep the pool is, well then your comparison graph is totally confusing.....
Another example: South Carolina's scoring defense - USC played against opponents with the following ranked scoring offenses:
Coastal Carolina: 84th
Georgia: 14th
Vanderbilt: T-68th
Kentucky: 85th
Missouri: 18th
Texas A&M: 19th
Tennessee: 108th
Mississippi: 30th
Florida: 22nd
Clemson: 4th
Akron: 124th
Virginia: T-68th
UNC's scoring offense - UNC played against opponents with the following ranked scoring defenses:
California: 22nd
East Carolina: 120th
Pittsburgh: 75th
Miami: 18th
Virginia Tech: 85th
Syracuse: 64th
Virginia: 21st
Georgia Tech: 79th
Duke: 72nd
North Carolina State: 45th
In 2018, USC faced one opponent with a top 10 scoring offense, four opponents with top 20 scoring offenses, five with top 25 scoring offenses, and six opponents with top 50 scoring offenses. USC went 2-4 against them.
UNC faced no opponents with a top 10 scoring defense, only one opponent in 2018 with a top 20 scoring defense, only three opponents with a top 25 scoring defense, and only four with a top 50 scoring defense. UNC went 0-4 against them.
So, your bar graph shows UNC's scoring offense being ranked 77th nationally, against USC's scoring defense which is ranked 69th nationally, and the implication would be to the untrained eye, that that isn't too different between the two. Likewise with UNC's 442.1 yds of total offense against USC's 424.3 yds of total offense allowed (total defense), in the top chart. It would imply that USC allows pretty much what UNC gains, so USC's defense may not inhibit UNC's offense all that much.
But this would be an inaccurate indicator, based on what types of offense USC went up against in 2018, versus what types of defenses UNC went up against. That's the apples to oranges your graphs are trying to compare.
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Most everyone recognizes this limitation. The statistics are still directionally correct.
No, UNC's scoring defense ranked 107th per the official NCAA stats. South Carolina's ranked 69th. I don't know what source you're using, but it never ceases to amaze me how many people rely on unofficial (and inaccurate) stats from sites like ESPN, etc. The NCAA stats come from the schools themselves, and as someone who has actually charted games, I can tell you that they're incredibly accurate.
It suggests no such thing.
The offenses are compared to each other in poast #5. The defenses are compared to each other in poast #6.
Look, I'm not going to respond to every criticism you've made. Ain't nobody got time for that. This is a simple exercise that's meant to entertain as much as inform, and most everyone is aware of its limitations. There are plenty of websites with advanced stats if that's what you're after (I highly recommend Football Outsiders). I've been doing this for years and have never seen a fan base get so worked up about this as the Gamecocks. Y'all need to smoke a doobie or something. LOL.
ETA: To be clear, I'm primarily referring to the not-so-warm welcome I got on your home board. I'm also in a bad mood this morning so forgive any snark.
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I for one really appreciate when you do the statistical analyses @Raising Heel. Most understand that these statistics are based on last year‘s team and not this year‘s team, because we have no games from this year‘s team to base it upon. We also understand that South Carolina plays a much more difficult schedule, particularly this year when they have one of the toughest schedules in the country.
These stats will reflect this year’s team as we play our schedule.
These stats will reflect this year’s team as we play our schedule.
SC fans are as prickly as a prickly pear. I think they’re more worried than they will admit.
I'm really looking forward to next week when I do 2019 stats for Miami. They will have played 1 game in which they allowed 10 sacks, lol.
If you have ever met a fan or Been to South Carolina you will realize they live and die by College football, and its all of them.. Outside of that one state nobody cares about their teams and never will and they find that puzzling? I live in a state with several Pro teams, and way more college teams and things to do... I have relatives there listening to them talk about it is like a religion, They will mention players or games to me and I say " never heard of em" and they can't believe it... I can't name 5 players on any college team maybe its me? Lol
As I said, they better win handily or there will be much crow to eat.
I see a Heels win, 23-20 or 20-17.
I see a Heels win, 23-20 or 20-17.
You could take your post and reverse the states, swap out college football for college basketball and you have the state of NC. Don't pretend its a hot bed of professional sports. Charlotte is a border city that pulls pretty equally from both states for Panthers support and has a basketball team no one cares about.
GO COCKS!
I referred to CFBstats, and you're correct, they are wrong. They rounded up the stats : Western Michigan and North Carolina tied at 106th with 34.5 ppg allowed. But NCAA did not round up: Western Mich. at 106th at 34.538 ppg, and North Carolina at 107th at 34.545. Without looking at USC's ranking discrepancy I would assume the same error applies there. My apologies.
Yes, the charts in posts (the word "poast" only refers today to a herbicide) 5 and 6 are more visually effective, and actually support my position: You see, for example, your post #5 of the chart, "South Carolina vs North Carolina - Offensive Comparison" the bars for each statistical category are longer for the larger statistic. So whichever team that has the better passing offense, rushing offense, total offense, etc. also has the larger corresponding bar graph. And that works to the bar graph's intended purpose.
However, you look again at the first bar graph you posted, Post #2, "Head to Head: South Carolina Offense vs North Carolina Defense" and it shows UNC's scoring defense of allowing 34.5 ppg with the larger bar graph than USC's scoring offense of 30.1 ppg. This would give the false implication to a viewer who quickly scans the graph, that UNC is the better team regarding this particular statistical category, when that would be false. It is what is known as a "dubious distinction" where the distinction is not positive, but negative.
You have to first understand what bar graphs are intended for, in the first place. They are information tools designed to impart data to viewers in a quick and easily discernible fashion, where those viewers can pull accurate - if not detailed - information from them. Just like line graphs, and pie charts. The point of the colored bar graphs is to show that one is better than the other, even if it doesn't show all the particulars. Your first bar graph fails at this: the bar graph would lead the casual viewer to think UNC is the better team in this particular category, when in fact they are the worser team. And that doesn't even address SOS yet, either.
In truth, the way you've positioned that comparison, you effectively render moot the need to even include bar graphs to the data, for they really do not convey accurate information, while the text imposed on top of the graphs do. Again, these are not positioned as stand-alone graphical bar graphs, but as comparisons to each other. This is where they fail.
I'm sorry if my critique or opinions upset you. I was under the impression that when you invited Gamecock fans to "check them out", that that meant we were welcome to add our opinions, as we typically are for any comments submitted to these sites. As I said above, your work is greatly appreciated.
If I had to - again, apologize in advance for this - offer an opinion, I would say that it seems that it is you that is "getting worked up about this", and no one else. There were 2-3 random smack talk posts, but isn't that to be expected between fans of teams that not only are about to play each other in just a few days, but also have a bit of historic rivalry to the dynamic?
Other than those few posts, the others were more or less critiquing comments similar to mine, and you mostly agreed to them. Again, the biggest obstacle to these comparisons are the schedule strengths that each played in 2018, which make it hard to get a on-target bead to just how these stats - and teams - compare to each other.
One such poster gave you logical, objective suggestions as to what to post - "Why don’t you post something about returning players, impact players, strengths, weaknesses, etc?" - and your response was "why don't you make me?". And you say its the Gamecock fan-base that's getting "worked up"??
Then you refer to some "not-so-warm" welcome you got on the Gamecock board, and then justify/excuse your own "not-so-warm" responses to my sincere opinions of your comparisons to being in a bad mood. Are you not able to educate yourself regarding this little back-and-forth, any better than this??
Hornets Panther and Hurricanes all sell out virtually every game ... Stick to what you know and all you will ever know..
Hardly anyone in South Carolina likes the Panthers, admit it, you have a favorite team in the NFL and its not them..
The hornets were in the bottom 10 of NBA attendance this past season, as well as arena capacity %. Attendance has been dropping regularly every year for the franchise. They most certainly do not sell out, unless Jordan is buying the tix himself in bulk.....
This during a period where the NBA as a league has been setting attendance records annually....
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I stand by my original post. NC is no hot bed of professional sports (i know, i live in a city that is - Go Sox, Go Pats), Charlotte is a border town, no one cares about the Charlotte NBA team (whats their nickname and didnt they already lose one team) and SC is as obsessed with college football as NC is with college basketball.
This thread is funny though with most agreeing that it would be a surprise if NC somehow managed to pull out a win while also contending SC sucks. If true, what does that say about the state of your program?
And trust me..I wish the state of your program would improve. Its kinda annoying to all us Gamecocks that there literally is no serious contendor to Clemspon in your conference. Joining the ACC in football has ruined FSU, Miami and Va Tech.
Spurs Up
You can choose:
1: "a person ready to take offense...."
2: UNC fans acting the exact same way they have criticized USC fans for acting....
Or option 3: I'm laughing at you right now for taking yourself so seriously.
This is the first time I've seen an opposing fan base push back on some harmless weekly stats that @Raising Heel has posted for several years. Not sure why anyone would want to write a dissertation on why they think the stats are bad.
I told you these guys are serious, its Cocks or nothing, wait e second Cocks or nothing? Yikes
I actually read this guy's first overly wordy post - fool me once shame on me....
Solid work on the graphs! Only thing about 2018 is it can probably be tossed out the window. UNC has a new staff and schemes. USC was decimated to injuries in the secondary and lacked quality depth in the front 7. In 2019 the DB spots have been well upgraded and with decent backups. The D line has legit 3 deep depth with multiple techniques. Offensively losing Deebo hurts but overall there should be progression in year 2 of the OC. 2018 only saw 50% of the playbook.
There are nothing but unknowns on the Tar Heel side of things but one thing is for certain, we have a coach that has been there before and knows how to develop talent. He also knows how to change the scheme when needed, something the former staff did not do much of. Hell, he was smart enough to hire the gamecocks coach on his staff at Texas. It is recognized that the gamecocks have better personnel and depth than last year as do the Heels although the experience level is not as good nor the depth on defense. The game isn't played on paper and the team that executes their respective game plan the best along with limiting turnovers and penalties will be the one that wins this. I think the scar fan base and lots of others folks are looking at a sure win for the cocks but as for me, I think the time is ripe for the upset that will shock many and be a great start to the return of the Mack.
@Conway Gamecock. Come back and eat your own cock.
A lot of Corvine cuisine for supper tonight in South Carolina. Much deserved, I might add.
