What's Happening in the Mock Drafts

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I occasionally look at NBADraft.net and DraftExpress. I have no idea if they are particularly good or bad.

DraftExpress (updated yesterday) shows this for our guys

29 - Justin
59 - Joel
60 - Isaiah

NBADraftnet.com (updated last week) shows

29 - Justin
36 - Hicks

No love for Kennedy and only a little for Joel.

All our guys look better than that to me, but I'm a fan.

Justin is very close to not being in the 1st round. Does he come back if he isn't sure of going in the 1st round? [It's worth noting that there aren't very many international players on these lists, yet. There were 7 in the 1st round last year.]

Are there better mocks, and what do they show?

 

[gary-7]

I occasionally look at NBADraft.net and DraftExpress. I have no idea if they are particularly good or bad.

DraftExpress (updated yesterday) shows this for our guys

29 - Justin
59 - Joel
60 - Isaiah

NBADraftnet.com (updated last week) shows

29 - Justin
36 - Hicks

No love for Kennedy and only a little for Joel.

All our guys look better than that to me, but I'm a fan.

Justin is very close to not being in the 1st round. Does he come back if he isn't sure of going in the 1st round? [It's worth noting that there aren't very many international players on these lists, yet. There were 7 in the 1st round last year.]

Are there better mocks, and what do they show?

Don't put much stock in that stuff at this point.
Buckets is leaving, he's answered the scouts' concerns and will likely be a mid-late first-rounder barring mishap.
Hicks hurt his stock by not getting evaluated last summer. Silly, right?
JB has not put out any signals that he's in a hurry to leave, but that one could change pretty quickly, as much as I want him to stay.

 

[imajericho]

The one I saw had Jackson around 20. Hicks around 39. And Grayson Allen undrafted.

 

[Steat]

Don't put much stock in that stuff at this point.
Buckets is leaving, he's answered the scouts' concerns and will likely be a mid-late first-rounder barring mishap.
Hicks hurt his stock by not getting evaluated last summer. Silly, right?
JB has not put out any signals that he's in a hurry to leave, but that one could change pretty quickly, as much as I want him to stay.

IMO, Berry's stock will not improve over this year and the chances of the Heels having a better team next year is doubtful regardless if they get Knox. I love myself some Berry, but regrefully he is a second round pick as it stands right now either this year or next year. The only way I see that changing is that he Heels make it back to the Final Four and he wins the MVP of the Dance. I don't think Berry's stock can get much higher than it is right now. Sort of like Tyus Jones of Duke a few years ago and our Kendall Marshall.

 

[gary-7]

IMO, Berry's stock will not improve over this year and the chances of the Heels having a better team next year is doubtful regardless if they get Knox. I love myself some Berry, but regrefully he is a second round pick as it stands right now either this year or next year. The only way I see that changing is that he Heels make it back to the Final Four and he wins the MVP of the Dance. I don't think Berry's stock can get much higher than it is right now. Sort of like Tyus Jones of Duke a few years ago and our Kendall Marshall.

Well, my worry is (although it's good for him) is that the league is taking note of JB outplaying lotto/1st-rounders head-up. And that extended 3-pt range he's been sporting this season has definitely raised some eyebrows. He's already made several from beyond NBA range. I selfishly hope he stays but he may be playing himself into the late first round. if he does go I would love Pop to draft him as Tony Parker's replacement. I think SA would be a perfect fit.

 

[dadika13]

JJ's stock isn't going to ever get much higher than it is now, I'm pretty sure he's gone and should get taken around 20.

I honestly think we get a senior year from JB unless we win a natty. He can really cement himself in the very very top tier of all time UNC PG's and it seems like he really loves being a Tar Heel.

 

[gauchoheel]

To echo the previous comments:

I think JJ is gone. He's shown about as much as he realistically can. He's not a lotto pick because he's not a physical speciman (apart from height) , but a very skilled and dependable player who can shoot.

Meeks/Hicks won't get drafted and are fairly unlikely to have real NBA careers. They are a bit undersized for NBA bigs, can't shoot from outside, and are good but not great athletes. Maybe they can hold a reserve spot in the right situation.

Joel is more of a mystery. On the one hand, what else does he have to prove? Amazing range, good handles, and mostly good defense. On the other hand, he's undersized and not tremendously quick. He couldn't stay with De'Aaron Fox, and that's the type of PG he'll face in the NBA. NBA PG's must excel in the Pick-n-roll, but Joel doesn't drive it that frequently. I'm not sure he'll ever be a 1st round pick, which could means he'll stay 4 years or moves on. Hope I'm wrong on his prospects, terrific player, but that's what I'm guessing scouts see.

 

[GACMAN]

What I see in these mock drafts is just more proof that the one and done is ruining college hoops....what a joke...student athletes my ass!!!

 

[Tom79]

What NBA GM's like, say, Mmm, Mitch see in JBII is a guy running the Carolina system. JBII would not be asked to do that in the NBA, he would be asked to run whichever teams stuff, he has the capabilities to do so. Same with JJ, long, lean, faster than most think, he too would go into an NBA system to fit. He would not be a pick to go bang inside but he has shown he can slide in to grab rebounds. Hicks will be an NBA'er and Kennedy will too. I've heard some nice stuff n those two guys and rebounding numbers, lead nationally. Yeah, no GM is going to even consider that aspect.
The NBA has a favorite word, potential, they understand most guys need a 2-3 years to really develop.

 

[Archer2]

What I see in these mock drafts is just more proof that the one and done is ruining college hoops....what a joke...student athletes my ass!!!

It is but it's just a symptom of the problem. The root cause is the almighty dollar. Universities are chasing it and so are the kids. The concept of the student athlete is disappearing in college basketball and football. And that is a shame.

 

[GACMAN]

It is but it's just a symptom of the problem. The root cause is the almighty dollar. Universities are chasing it and so are the kids. The concept of the student athlete is disappearing in college basketball and football. And that is a shame.

At least in football they stay for 3 years and there is actually a chance to get a long way towards a degree. These freshman mentioned in these mock drafts very likely will not step foot into a classroom 2nd semester and certainly won't as soon as the season is over. They will all be in Florida working with trainers getting ready for their pro career...which I get and don't blame them! But why is the NCAA looking the other way...maybe you are correct in that as long as they keep getting big dollars why does it matter? My take though is that the college game will be better if they make kids stay 3 years and turn it back to being about the student athlete. One reason that I love UNC is that you see kids like Kennedy Meeks develop over the years and turn from the pillsbury dough boy into a very good college basketball player...that young man will forever be in Roy's debt because of that development. That bond between them will very likely never be broken and whether Meeks makes the NBA or not, he will be a success and Roy Williams will be a big part of that.....that to me is what college sports is and should be about!! I don't get worried when the OAD don't come to UNC...I like 3-4 year guys that become part of the UNC family.

 

[gunslingerdick]

JJ's stock isn't going to ever get much higher than it is now, I'm pretty sure he's gone and should get taken around 20.

I honestly think we get a senior year from JB unless we win a natty. He can really cement himself in the very very top tier of all time UNC PG's and it seems like he really loves being a Tar Heel.

Agree.

To echo the previous comments:

I think JJ is gone. He's shown about as much as he realistically can. He's not a lotto pick because he's not a physical speciman (apart from height) , but a very skilled and dependable player who can shoot.

Meeks/Hicks won't get drafted and are fairly unlikely to have real NBA careers. They are a bit undersized for NBA bigs, can't shoot from outside, and are good but not great athletes. Maybe they can hold a reserve spot in the right situation.

Joel is more of a mystery. On the one hand, what else does he have to prove? Amazing range, good handles, and mostly good defense. On the other hand, he's undersized and not tremendously quick. He couldn't stay with De'Aaron Fox, and that's the type of PG he'll face in the NBA. NBA PG's must excel in the Pick-n-roll, but Joel doesn't drive it that frequently. I'm not sure he'll ever be a 1st round pick, which could means he'll stay 4 years or moves on. Hope I'm wrong on his prospects, terrific player, but that's what I'm guessing scouts see.

Mostly agree. Although I think Hicks has enough athleticism to have a productive career as a 9th or 10th bench guy.

 

[dukephysics]

My take though is that the college game will be better if they make kids stay 3 years and turn it back to being about the student athlete.

It is the professional leagues that mandate this stuff. It's 3 years for football because the NFL says so (and their right to say so was held up in courts with the Maurice Clarett deal). It's 1 year in basketball because the NBA says so (and my guess is courts would say the same about their sovereignty).
I don't think many like the rule (except for NBA GMs who get to see these kids audition at the NCAA level for a year to evaluate them...which should mean fewer cases like Robert Swift). Unfortunately, the NBA collective bargaining agreement probably isn't going to address this any time soon. GMs like it how it is - and the players likely don't care too much. At least the veterans don't. Maybe once the biggest name in the game isn't Lebron, the players will tackle this.

 

[trestyles]

Mock drafts are terrible. Even more terrible before the big dance in March. JJ is going first round, because like a previous poster said, he answering all questions. Hicks maybe a suprise first round pick after workouts. Think dook miles pulmee(no one had mock getting drafted).

Berry could sneak into first round. He fits the trend of the nba PGs(besides tall). He a scoring PG who can really shoot.

 

[trestyles]

To echo the previous comments:

I think JJ is gone. He's shown about as much as he realistically can. He's not a lotto pick because he's not a physical speciman (apart from height) , but a very skilled and dependable player who can shoot.

Meeks/Hicks won't get drafted and are fairly unlikely to have real NBA careers. They are a bit undersized for NBA bigs, can't shoot from outside, and are good but not great athletes. Maybe they can hold a reserve spot in the right situation.

Joel is more of a mystery. On the one hand, what else does he have to prove? Amazing range, good handles, and mostly good defense. On the other hand, he's undersized and not tremendously quick. He couldn't stay with De'Aaron Fox, and that's the type of PG he'll face in the NBA. NBA PG's must excel in the Pick-n-roll, but Joel doesn't drive it that frequently. I'm not sure he'll ever be a 1st round pick, which could means he'll stay 4 years or moves on. Hope I'm wrong on his prospects, terrific player, but that's what I'm guessing scouts see.

Fox was 9-21 in that game. He shut down Dennis smith. Scouts notice that very well. Also Joel drive to the basket frequently.

 

[RP12]

I don't know if Hicks will ever be really consistent but he has tons of potential and could fit better in the NBA than college if his range continues to get better.

 

[GACMAN]

It is the professional leagues that mandate this stuff. It's 3 years for football because the NFL says so (and their right to say so was held up in courts with the Maurice Clarett deal). It's 1 year in basketball because the NBA says so (and my guess is courts would say the same about their sovereignty).
I don't think many like the rule (except for NBA GMs who get to see these kids audition at the NCAA level for a year to evaluate them...which should mean fewer cases like Robert Swift). Unfortunately, the NBA collective bargaining agreement probably isn't going to address this any time soon. GMs like it how it is - and the players likely don't care too much. At least the veterans don't. Maybe once the biggest name in the game isn't Lebron, the players will tackle this.

So you are telling me that the NCAA has NO say in the matter....well I call BS on that!(not hammering you at all) If the NBA and NFL are dictating what has to happen to the NCAA, then why do we need the NCAA? If the student athlete really mattered to the NCAA, then it would make a policy that is good for them....this OAD is not! If a high school kid is good enough and does not want to go to college for 3 years, then let them go overseas to play.

 

[RP12]

We don't need the NCAA

 

[gauchoheel]

This is a hypothetical, but what if we were to find out that Joel Berry really didn't care about classes at UNC, and was just doing the minimum to remain eligible? Would that really change your view on him?

That is much more common than you think. And staying for four years says very little about someone's desire to learn. A lot of these guys are making purely basketball decisions, otherwise Stanford and Harvard would be out-recruiting UNC. So I think the freaking out about a supposed de-emphasis on education makes little sense. The classes are there if kids want to take advantage of them. Many of them don't, never have, and no rule is going to change that.

 

[RP12]

I did the bare minimum to get through college because it was an arbitrary thing that had to be done, so has nothing to do with it for me.

However, there are very few players that I can remember that I felt were just there for NBA exposure and I don't like any of them. That's really the point of much of this conversation. The "any way to win" set wants us to appeal more to that type of player and I have no desire to do so. Of course not all OAD players have that attitude.

 

[dukephysics]

So you are telling me that the NCAA has NO say in the matter....well I call BS on that!(not hammering you at all)

I am suggesting that. The rule is set (in both football and basketball) in the collective bargaining agreement between the pro players and the pro league. The NBA says you have to be 1 year out of high school to enter the NBA draft. If the NCAA came along and said, well if you go to school you have to stay 2 (or 3 or more) years, two things would happen. One, it would be challenged in court and almost certainly the decision would be that the NCAA can't do that. Only the military gets to hold you to something like that (for obvious reasons). And two, the best players would say fine, I'll go play my 1 year (dictated by the NBA) overseas.
I'm in agreement with I think most of you that OAD is not good for the players. But it isn't the NCAA (not that the NCAA cares what's best for the players anyways) that has the OAD rule - it is the NBA. And no I don't think the NCAA has ANY say. The NBA is arguably as popular as ever (at least the TV contracts suggest so), and so they are going to do what's best for the NBA. They have decided that having kids play one year of more competitive ball after high school gives them more time to more accurately evaluate these kids. Until they decide different, we are stuck with it.

 

[zell06]

Its a compromise between NBA and NCAA. NCAA gets to showcase the OAD players, and make their money on the big Non Conf/NCAA Tourn games. Then the NBA can get them and start their development. When kids went straight to NBA, NCAA lost out on that revenue. Hence the OAD rule.

 

[dukephysics]

Its a compromise between NBA and NCAA. NCAA gets to showcase the OAD players, and make their money on the big Non Conf/NCAA Tourn games. Then the NBA can get them and start their development. When kids went straight to NBA, NCAA lost out on that revenue. Hence the OAD rule.

It's not.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/24/nba-age-limit_n_4838970.html
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-college-one-and-done-hernandez-20160324-story.html
http://www.sbnation.com/2016/11/2/13496762/ben-simmons-documentary-review-ncaa-anger-nbpa
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/ncaa-ben-simmons-blast-philadelphia-76ers-one-and-done
Mark Emmert: " That’s not our rule. That’s the NBA’s rule."
Adam Silver wants 2 years.
Coach K wants a system like baseball has.
The NCAA wants them forever. But they don't get to decide. They have NO SAY. The rule that is in place is the one that the NBA feels maximizes their product (and thus, revenue). The NCAA is simply a beneficiary in this case.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

What I see in these mock drafts is just more proof that the one and done is ruining college hoops....what a joke...student athletes my ass!!!

IIRC, 12 OADs in last year's 1st round. Plus 7 foreigners and Thon Maker out of HS. Doesn't leave much guaranteed money for everyone who sticks around.

Interestingly enough, though, late bloomers were reasonably well-represented in the lottery. So sticking around and getting very good also pays off.

 

[gauchoheel]

If you think the NCAA has helped to create the OAD rule, you don't understand the way this situation is working. The NCAA has no seat at the table. It's a rule that's entirely decided by the NBA and NBAPA. Any benefit that the NCAA receives is entirely incidental, as the NBA does not care about their revenues. The NBAPA feels the same way. Until someone can convince that changing the rule will benefit the NBA and the player's union, we are not going to see any change.