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Advance stuff (Auburn scouting report).

gary-7

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Jan 27, 2003
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PART I:
OK, for those who appreciate this sort of thing, and since I know this Auburn team very well, here FWIW is my scouting breakdown in much gorier detail than you'll get elsewhere. I'll throw out some basics, go thru the roster, and offer some takes on the match-up and Xs-and-Os.

- I'll start out by saying that in conversations last week within my circle (as well as with a few members here I talk with off the board), when asked about Auburn I said, "they are thoroughly capable of self-destructing in the 1st round in Salt Lake (they all but did), BUT if they get past that they might just boat-race Kansas (check)". This little weekend adventure personifies this team more than they would like to admit.

- This is a team that frankly underachieved for most of the season (for various reasons), but is now hitting their stride. Their psychological turning point was a half-assed effort that resulted in an embarrassing whuppin' up in Lexington in February that deservedly dropped them outta the top-25. Welp, they haven't lost since, including taking the SEC Tourney with 4 wins in 4 days, culminating with a downright scary 20-pt dismantling of Tennessee in the Finals (that wasn't even really that close).

- The practical turning point was a combination of Pearl finally fixing a broken starting lineup (one that made my head hurt :eek:), and working back in a couple of key pieces into the rotation. So let's look at the roster, one that now goes legit 10-deep, and has all the positional numbers covered:

Starters:
PG - #1 Jared Harper --- listed at 5'11 (more like 5'9) but don't be deceived, dude is (almost literally) all-arms-and-legs and plays bigger than he is. Former Peach Jam MVP. Leads the SEC in Assists but also has no conscience from 3, and will attack the rim and finish over bigger players. Harper is a blur who is a weapon in transition and pesky on defense.
Caveats. --- Likes to mooch steals and has a tendency to pick up foul trouble, and again, has no conscience from 3 so shot-selection can be an issue.

SG - #2 Bryce Brown --- his 6'3 listing is also a tad generous, but he's cat-quick w/ a strong handle and can fill it up from deep. Quick release and can stroke it off the bounce or the catch with good elevation. Also considered a "plus" defender (although not quite at KW's level). Particularly deadly on transition 3s. When he's hot, duck! --- 7/11 from 3 vs KU.
Caveats --- Has a tendency to dick around with fancy dribbles trying to create space. Also can be emotional and get into funks if his shot ain't falling (still plays hard on D though).

SF - #4 Malik Dunbar --- A role-player but his insertion into the starting lineup made a big difference. 6'6 and powerful w/ long arms, built like an NFL Tight End (think Nas). Don't be deceived, he can shoot the 3 and is not shy.
Caveats --- Spends too much time on the perimeter hunting the 3 instead of utilizing that body, and should be a better FT shooter with his stroke.

PF/SF - #5 Chuma Okeke --- Hoo-wee, I love this kid from down ATL way! Every coach I know salivates over him, and we've known he was underrated by the 'cruitin experts since HS. We're talking 6'8 of pure basketball-playing ability. Long and smoothly athletic --- prototype NBA 3-man --- with face-up and post-up game, and can defend, too. Was really hoping Roy would recruit him. NBA scouts have gotten the message and Auburn fans are hoping they keep their grubby hands off for at least another year.
Caveats --- Often defends best front-court player so has to be careful with foul trouble. Honestly, the biggest one is that he's just now in his Soph season figuring out just how good he is. Chuma's a nice, big, goofy kid at heart, but started to show some alpha late. Lordy, if someone could zap some Rashad McCants "dog" into him, yikes.

C/PF - #24 Anfernee McLemore --- Undersized for post play, but actually led the SEC in blocked shots last season at only 6'7 because he could flat jump outta the gym, and spring off the floor in a hurry. Also has Stretch ability with a spot-up set-shot 3 on P-n-Ps.
Caveats --- His season came to a tragic end last year with a catastrophic ankle blow-out, and frankly he still hasn't recovered that explosiveness, thus his shot-blocking and rebounding has suffered this season. And although he makes some, I'll take my chances with his 3-ball. Also weak as a FT shooter.

Bench:
PG - #12 J'von McCormick --- JUCO transfer has been a godsend for AU after Davion Mitchell's sudden off-season transfer. Took him a while but his minutes have recently increased as he has settled in as a starter-quality backup. When Harper had to sit out all but 2 minutes of the first half vs UT with foul trouble, J'von ran the ship like a pro. Listed at 6'0 (more like 5'10) he's also a blur. Not as much of a deep-threat as Harper (he has a conscience), but is over 50% from 3... will also take it to the rack and finish over and around bigger guys because of his ridiculous hops. He and Harper will sometimes share the floor in stretches in a small but double-quick backcourt.
Caveats --- Despite his improvements, he probably doesn't shoot enough (believe it or not) and he will still take the ball into no-man's land without a plan, and even his freaky athleticism can't always bail him out.

SG/SF - #10 Samir Doughty --- 6'4 (at most) transfer from VCU was starting most of the season out of position at the 3 due to temporary roster shortages, and Bruce stubbornly kept him there too long even though AU was getting killed in size match-ups. He has been much more valuable as a versatile sub and is deceptively athletic. He has an odd-looking set-shot from 3, but it's good for 42% and if he gets his feet set it's absolutely deadly.
Caveats --- Could do more as a slasher if he decided to, and sometimes gets loose with the rock.

PF/SF - #3 Danjel Purifoy --- ironically last season's NBA hot prospects are now coming off the bench, and here's one. Purifoy got caught up in Chuck Person's idiocy and was suspended for the first 1/3 of the season (as well as part of last season), thus he came in out of shape and rusty. He has only recently started regaining his mojo, and Danjel is a grown-ass man at 6'7 and prolly 240. Still not totally himself, he is now Okeke's backup and is also an NBA prototype 3 playing mostly as a Stretch-4 in college. And like Okeke, he has face-up and post-up game and an NBA body.
Caveats --- Again, he's still shaking off some rust and is working toward regaining his quickness and has been prone to getting too many foul calls

PF/C - #0 Horace Spencer --- a very athletic, long and rangy 6'8 Senior, Spencer has performed admirably out of position as a 5, and sometimes gets pushed around. Ideally a Stretch-4 he will nonetheless battle inside and can block shots. Doesn't do it often but will occasionally pop for a 3.
Caveats --- prone to foul trouble and is not a good FT shooter.

C - #50 Austin Wiley --- Speaking of prospects, Wiley was a 5* recruit who missed all of 10 (and big parts of more) games this season with nagging leg injuries. He's just recently gotten able to go longer stretches, and lemme tell ya, he's a pure Post and a load at a legit 6'11 and 260. Big fella has been a game-changer during Auburn's recent wins and could potentially be more so as they go.
Caveats --- still limited in stamina and is a sketchy FT shooter.

- (See Part II following right below for Xs-and-Os, etc)
 
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Part II:
Xs-and-Os
Offense:
- For those who remember Pearl at UT there are similarities in style but he has morphed into a quicker trigger green-light with these guys. Thus, their strength is transition and the 3-ball is a big part of that.

- In the half-court vs Man they will spread the floor and, unless Wiley is in, rarely play inside-out (which has hurt them IMO). Pearl used to run a version of the Flex at UT, and still utilizes the basic cuts, but honestly I rarely see anything resembling a Continuity offense these days. And as fast as they like to play, they sometimes slow to a crawl in the half-court and end up with Isos or late shot-clock ball-screens.

- Their set plays can be effective and they are not afraid to throw high-risk lobs to their athletes.

- Ironically Zones have sometimes been effective against them despite their bombers, simply due to a frankly lame Zone Offense (if you want to call it that), which sometimes consists of a 2-man game off a high ball-screen for a deep 3 (which again, makes my head hurt vs Zone). Their best action vs Zone comes when they deploy Okeke in the mid-post and let him go to work.

Defense:
- Pearl was known for pressure deny defense at UT, and they still do some of that. They will show full-court deny after made shots, but it's usually only for the in-bound and then releases to token. However, they will sometimes switch it up and bring it as a full press.

- They will often pick up in the backcourt to stress ball-handlers and deny passing lanes. and IF they're locked in they do force TOs. Lots of athletes and they're adept at ball-hawking. They can also have active and moochy hands vs interior passing.

- They also mix in Zone. The most effective one is an inversion that becomes a 1-1-3, with ironically little Harper challenging in the high post area, and that actually works pretty well vs offenses (like ours) that attack from that area. The weakness is obviously to the wing 3-ball.

Match-ups:
- I'm going to avoid going too much into individual stuff right now, but I'll go ahead and say the THE two best head-to-head advantages UNC has are as follows:
1) UNC's rebounding commitment and tenacity vs AU's, shall we say, nonchallance. Auburn has been hurt by teams that crash the offensive glass, and they are often too anxious to get out and run the floor. I would expect Bruce to emphasize that this week but we'll see how effective that is.
2) Roy Williams (and Dean Smith) and staff vs Bruce Pearl and staff. For those who remember Roy's last encounter with Bruce in 2006, the UNC system was just superior. Don't get me wrong --- Bruce is a perfect coach for a football school. He's an "A" recruiter and and an "A+" promoter, but TBH he's a "B-/C+" tactician and X-and-O guy (and his staff isn't loaded with help there either). Some Auburn folks get upset with me when I say that, but hey, I'm used to fans being uspet when I speak truth to cherished narratives, so...;)

- On the Auburn end, their biggest head-to-head advantage is depth. They are now the healthiest they've been and they run a true 10-deep with athletes everywhere, so wearing them down is probably not on the table. And as big a fan as I am of Roy, and as innovative a job he has done adapting to an unorthodox personnel situation this season, I have been critical of his use of the bench. We'll see if that becomes an issue Friday. And IF Bruce utilizes big Wiley more then that could be another wild-card that may go in their favor.

- Finally, here's a little irony --- normally UNC WANTS teams to run with them, but Auburn is most vulnerable when the game slows down and Roy's impressive augmented 2018-19 array of half-court set plays could be a difference-maker. One way or another it will be an interesting dynamic, to say the least, to watch the ebb and flow of tempo and how all that plays out.....
 
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I think Auburn is faster than us but that our length can hopefully bother them a lot, especially on the perimeter with white and Johnson pretty tall respectfully for their position.
 
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I think Auburn is faster than us but that our length can hopefully both them a lot, especially in the perimeter with white and Johnson pretty tall respectfully for their position.
True enough. Even with moving Dunbar into the starting lineup they are relatively small overall. Although more minutes for Wiley and Purifoy have helped mitigate that to some extent overall, they are still almost always smaller across the Guard rotation than their opponents.
 
This team makes me nervous because they can light it up from 3 at any moment. That’s the most dangerous team to us as we both can’t guard the perimeter and if a team goes off from 3 then it’s hard to beat them. I believe that we are the best team in the country and in ten games against any team we beat them at least 6 teams, but with these 3 point shooting teams they can get lucky and beat us.
 
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Appreciate the breakdown Gary.

I've caught Auburn on TV 4-5 times this year and it's so freaking Jekyll and Hyde with them. Destroyed by UK, beat UT, almost blow it to NM St, destroy Kansas. Never know what I'm getting.

Harper seems to be the straw that stirs the drink with them. If he's bouncing around and finding guys for shots, good luck. If he's turning it over they get crushed. Did a quick look...loss vs UK he was 3/11 with 3 TOs and 0 assists, 6 assists and 2 TOs blowout in SEC title, 3 TOs 4 assists and 5 fouls vs NM St, then 6 assists and 2 TOs blowout vs KU.

Coby's going to have a tough matchup as I assume we'll put Kenny on Brown.
 
gary-7 In my humble opinion this write up was by far the greatest post and story you have ever contributed here.

The tremendous breakdown of the Auburn players, both their strengths and weaknesses was a masterpiece and very interesting to read and digest.

Your style on this piece reminded me a lot of dSouthr who uses facts and a real analysis instead of just personal opinions to Express their feelings and reasons when they post.

Again than you for a tremendous piece of journalism.
 
Appreciate the breakdown Gary.

I've caught Auburn on TV 4-5 times this year and it's so freaking Jekyll and Hyde with them. Destroyed by UK, beat UT, almost blow it to NM St, destroy Kansas. Never know what I'm getting.

Harper seems to be the straw that stirs the drink with them. If he's bouncing around and finding guys for shots, good luck. If he's turning it over they get crushed. Did a quick look...loss vs UK he was 3/11 with 3 TOs and 0 assists, 6 assists and 2 TOs blowout in SEC title, 3 TOs 4 assists and 5 fouls vs NM St, then 6 assists and 2 TOs blowout vs KU.

Coby's going to have a tough matchup as I assume we'll put Kenny on Brown.
Agree on all points. And yeah, If Harper is clicking they are hard to handle. Little dude will heat-check in a heartbeat if he's feeling it, but honestly he's most effective when he's stressing defenses and distributing, and you always have to be alert for blow-bys. This finish vs Xavier in Maui was just sick
 
@gary-7 whats with your schtick of naming your thread “xxxx stuff” then putting the actual subject in parentheses? Like why not just title it what you put in parentheses?

Anywho, turnovers and rebounds look to be the keys here. If we protect the ball and crush them on the glass like we should, we should win fairly easily. If we’re coughing it up like the last 8 minutes of the first half against Washington and let them find their groove knocking down 3s in transition we will be in trouble.

Ultimately I think our length and rebounding is too much for them, but if we don’t play well we could absolutely be going home.
 
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Reading and looking through some stats (and some say stats are for losers) but dang, get ready Tar Heels, this group shoots, a lot, of their shots 49% are threes, they make at or more than 37%, we have made 305 to their make #421...we better be marking our guys and getting our "D" up to Kenny's level or above by the entire team. Gonna be tough.
 
@gary-7 whats with your schtick of naming your thread “xxxx stuff” then putting the actual subject in parentheses? Like why not just title it what you put in parentheses?

Anywho, turnovers and rebounds look to be the keys here. If we protect the ball and crush them on the glass like we should, we should win fairly easily. If we’re coughing it up like the last 8 minutes of the first half against Washington and let them find their groove knocking down 3s in transition we will be in trouble.

Ultimately I think our length and rebounding is too much for them, but if we don’t play well we could absolutely be going home.
In the end, I think it boils down to us needing to score more than them. That’s the key ifyam.
 
Here is something to consider, UNC is 6th in adjusted tempo, 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency....no other team, since the last national title hopeful, was in the top ten of both categories...in '08-'09...and that worked out pretty well.

The only teams that played at a faster pace than North Carolina require the past tense because all of their seasons are over: Florida International, Eastern Kentucky, Savannah State, Texas Southern and Marshall. Only four teams in the Sweet 16—LSU and Gonzaga, in addition to North Carolina and Duke—are in the top 100 in adjusted tempo. LSU is ranked 58th, while Gonzaga, which has a reputation for being one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, is 70th. Most teams that play at an extremely fast pace do it out of necessity. The Tar Heels do it because they excel at it.
 
Before reading the first two posts of the thread, I wasn't aware of Auburn's depth. Thanks for the extensive write-up, though I find it necessary to point out a couple of corrections: 1) Buzz Peterson was still coach at Tennessee when Carolina played them out in Maui during the 2004-05 season and 2) the last time the Heels played against a Pearl-coached team was in the 2006-07 season. Carolina played Tennessee in the Pre-Season NIT Consoloation Game, and I believe Pearl remarked about Hansbrough's number of free-throw attempts/and-ones in the post game press conference.
Good catch. I was thinking it was in Maui but you're right it was the 06 NIT when we played Pearl's UT team. Shoulda looked it up ---- hard to believe that was over a decade ago --- memories jumbling together :oops:
 
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As with our toughest games during the year it will come down to playing with intensity, rebounding, playing tough defense, without cheating off your man too much and hitting shots. Sounds simple doesn't it. If we both play our A game, I think we win but we cannot survive an unfocused half of basketball and expect to play another game in this tournament.
 
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The more you look at this roster the more you realize they are easily one of the 10 most talented teams in the country. Gonna be a battle. I do think they will be in for a long night if they try to get in a track meet with us though. Its like when you fight Mike Tyson for the first time - you can prepare for it all you want but you really wont know what its gonna be like until you step in the ring. Bring it Auburn
 
Hi GARY. Nice write up. Can you do a similar one of UNC for your barn friends?

Also, we must know who you’re pulling for in this one. Even as a lifelong Heel I’m riding with AU.
Am planning on doing one. As for whom I'm pulling for, I HATE that this game is happening --- wish they were in opposite brackets. In hoops UNC is always my lifelong loyalty, but I hate having to pull against Auburn. Just gonna grit my teeth and try to stay analytical, knowing that neither outcome will be completely satisfying.
 
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Frankly, have not paid Auburn much attention so appreciate gary giving us some depth on what we will be looking at. Clearly they are a hot team that is on an extended win streak, could they be our draw kyptonite, truth is we are in the sweet 16 and every sweet 16 team is a good team and a challenge to send home. I am not going to be in awe of their win over kansas because I considered the jayhawks to be a wounded duck that sorely missed their 2 big time big men as well as the distractions off the court. IN this NCAAT they have a squeek by 1 pt win that was under impressive and beat solid a wounded duck. But now their SEC tourney march is impressive.

I see a front court that has some good size and strength, Okeke may only be 6'8" but he is what, around 245lbs, their roster seems to have solid weights for their height and some times weight and physical condition means as much if not more than length. Going 10 deep means fresher legs most of the time but at the same time we see Roy go 10+ deep every season up till we get very late in the ACC season as well as in the ACCT and NCAAT. meaning Roy will get depth ready during the regular season but the major PT late season and in the tournys see him shrink his PT down to a core 8. He will at times late still go to guys 9&10 for some critical minutes.

This sets up an important point, why does Roy reduce his rotations late in the season? He does this for the very reason so many fans complain about earlier season, that at times Roy going to his bench makes it harder for his core guys to get their game rythem going strong, you want the guys key to your team to get their heads in the game and get their confidence rolling.

If pearl is going to go a full 10 deep with each getting at least 10mins a game does that not put them in the same situation many Tar Heel fans get concerned with early season, taking hot players out so that runs can not be created or extended?

Second, while I appreciate that this Auburn team likes to run, I see folks suggest they are faster than this UNC team, it gives me a ground hog day feeling because I have heard that one many times before, teams believe they can run with us and beat us yet the results yield that is usually not a great plan.

IMO, this game comes down to our outside shooting and to be specific it is our outside shooting from 3 guys, Luke Coby, and kenny (Cam's shooting will be there). If 1 of those 3 can join Cam hitting the outside shots, I think it will be enough to win this one, if 2 do I think we win by a comfortable margin, if all 3 bring their shot we win big.

And then there is our emerging X factor, Naz, kid has shown up for this NCAAT, can he keep that level of play going, I say yes if he will spend most of his time in the paint, OK with the occasional outside jumper but need to see most of his work be in the paint because he is a match up nightmare on a team full of match up nightmares, he may be the hardest to really match up with when he is playing confident and aggressive. Something to watch for is can Naz get rolling early, when the ball touches his hands early game does he catch it solid and make a strong move to score or does he fumble it and look a bit hesitant? Second early key is do we pound the ball outside in the half court for long stretches of the shot clock or do we look to aggressively attack by getting the ball in to the paint early shot clock. These 2 things can set the tone for this game IMO, I think they tend to set up our outside shooting for cleaner looks and cleaner looks is our key for our outsider shooters getting warmed up.

And, our offense IMO seems to be the key to jump starting our defensive intensity, which feeds back in to our offense and gets us out running. Limit TOs, hit our free throws, key guys staying out of early foul trouble, and getting a solid margin on the boards and we can can open this thing up.

BUT, don't forget Texas A&M, a clunker game where our outside shooting never showed up and before we knew it we were in a hole we could not get out of and our season was over last year.
 
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Key is toughness! Tough with the ball; tough finishing through contact; tough boxing out/rebounding; tough on D (esp 3pt D); tough enough to withstand the inevitable punch in the mouth at the beginning!

Fortunately, I believe we have proven to be tough enough!
 
Awesome write up Gary!

The first thing I have to say going into this one is I’m happy to have Kenny Williams on our side and hope that hammy is all good tomorrow. I think Kenny’s impact on D and containing Brown coming off the catch will be important for us to win this one and I know Kenny is up for the challenge.

I think our advantage on the glass can really be a big difference maker for us, defensively being able to corral long rebounds and finish off possessions will prevent Auburn from getting second chance points and have opportunities for kick out 3s. And then on the offensive glass, taking care of the ball and taking good shots that don’t surprise the rest of the team will be key as it can set us up for more and more second chance opportunities that can be a big time difference maker for us if Auburn is knocking in some threes and getting out in transition well, we can slow them down some and make them work even harder on D.

After reading Gary’s post, I thought about Nas and how big of an impact he could have in this one matching up against Auburn’s athletes and the helping mitigate some of the depth they have, let’s hope he got a good days rest and will be able to give us some time tomorrow. He really looked good last weekend and elevates us to another level. If he can’t go or is limited, it’s all hands on deck and I look to B-Rob to be a difference maker defensively and Leaky to come in and give us positive minutes too in maybe a little longer stretch that last weekend.

I am worried about Auburn getting out in transition and getting hot from the oustide, so I think it is important for us to prevent this by limiting our live ball turnovers. We need Coby and Kenny to take care of the ball especially and allow us to run our stuff and get the shots we want. I want to see Coby in attack mode and to go right at Harper, but as Roy says he needs to attack,attack, attack, but under control which he has definitely improve upon this year.

I can see Luke having a big day, I think in an uptempo game like tomorrow expects to be his ability to rebound and then run the floor and get to his spots will put him in a good place to succeed. I want to see him looking to get going inside early like he did against Duke at Cameron and then expand the floor from there. I also feel that if Auburn’s guards are pressuring out on Coby early he will take it on himself to work hard off the ball and knock in some shots to calm things some. I think Cam’s length on the perimeter may also be another plus for us as he can get some good looks to rise up over Auburn’s guards and if he can hit a few coming out of the break it could set a nice tone for the game and get us out to an early lead.

I definitely have some nerves going into this one, but I think our experience and having Roy to lead the way will ultimately carry us to a W and another step closer to the Final Four.
 
Coby will lead us all the way to the Championship. We have already surpassed last years team.....its a shame our senior leaders Berry and Pinson went out with a whimper.....but I expect out great senior leaders Maye and Williams will do a better job along with Cam in leading us to the Natty....Coby and the Miracles will get it done!
 
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I will be interested to see the pace each team tries to play. Auburn is deeper and has tendency to struggle with the half court sets where rebounding and shooting % becomes more critical. But by shortening the game Auburn makes their 3's even more effective.

UNC always wants to run but do they want to allow Auburn to have those extra chances to shoot a 3? Even at full strength Carolina does not have the depth of the Tigers.

I would think that at this stage you play to your strength and for UNC that means run and run some more. Luke needs to find deep shot and this would be a great time for Kenny to hit some from deep. One thing this team does not seem to be consistent at is the transition 3. Ellington was cold blooded in those situations.
 
I think there are several potential X-Factors in this game:

1. Coby White’s defense - he has subtlety become an excellent defender the last month, and we will need him since Kenny can’t guard both of Auburn’s sensational guards at the same time.
2. Perimeter Defense Rotations: All the best UNC teams became sensational on defensive rotations by the time the NCAA tournament rolled around which made us a much better defensive team than people realized. We had a few breakdowns, but I finally saw the excellent perimeter recovery defense I wanted for long stretches against Washington. It was obvious they thought if they passed enough around the horn they would get easy threes, but they (and I) were shocked sometimes they were less open when they were done passing than when they started.
3. Our health: especially Nas who has been a key offensive spark plug during the NCAA tourney when other options aren’t going well. I thought he would be a key factor vs. Auburn with his height and athleticism, so I really hope he is healthy.

The other reason I hope Nas and Kenny are healthy is so we will not wear out. I know that’s not a normal UNC concern, but we have several players who play a ton of minutes compared to normal. To be fair, the only time I have noticed us getting worn out this year was vs. UVA, and that was only two days after an overtime game that drained us, plus we ran out of wings that game between Leaky, Nas, and Johnson (a few key minutes where UVA took it to Brandon Robinson who wasn’t as prepared for such a big game then as he is now.). However, Auburn is a different beast than what we are used to and very gritty, so I much prefer we have a cushion going into the last few minutes.
 
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