Crystal Ball

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Some people like it, some take every opportunity to denigrate it. But how good is it, really?

I think that probably depends on how you look at it. My sense is that it's pretty good IF you look at the leaders and not just the #1 pick.

So, for example, if the CB says AZ 60% KU 30% UCLA 10% and the kid goes to AZ or KU, the Crystal Ball has done a good job.

I mean there are 351 D1 schools. And, sure, maybe only 20 of them had any chance at all of getting the kid. But the CB did a good job of narrowing down the field.

That's just my way of looking at it.

The other thing that the haters tend to ignore is trends. If you glance at the timing of the picks and weight the most recent picks more heavily, the CB performs even better. No, I'm not talking about the piling on that happens a day or so before the commit. I'm talking about weighting last month's picks more than last year's picks.

So, anyway.... Here are the current CB ratings for all of the offers we have out right now. Let's see how the CB does, when they players finally make their choices, and whether the interim changes are in the right direction.

Player      Rank  #P  Schools %                    Trend

Nickelberry  53    5  UNC 60%   NCSU 40%            NCSU
Moore        24   15  Duke 87%  UNC 13%             Duke
Brooks       27    8  MSU 75%   IND 25%             MSU
Carey         2   13  Duke 54%  Miami 23% MSU 23%   Duke
Hurt          4   10  KU 50%    Minn 30%  UNC 10%   KU
RobinsonEarl 26    7  KU 100%                       KU
Wiseman       1   16  Memph 50% UK 50%              Memph
Baker        17    7  UNC 57%   UCLA 29% Texas 17%  UCLA
Bacot        20   11  UNC 100%                      UNC

(#P = number of predictions)

 

[Tom79]

We need to lock up those last two on the list!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We need to lock up those last two on the list!

Yeah. To me, those guys are about perfect for us. Although Baker is listed as a center, he looks more like a PF with stretch ambitions. Not afraid to bang inside, though. And Bacot should be a solid center.

With another year under their belts, either or both could be OAD material. They don't look it (to me) right now, but they could get there.

The unknown - which could keep those guys from choosing us - is how good our current bigs will be. We all hope they will be good enough as juniors to eat all or most of the PT. But if they are that good, will Baker and Bacot be interested?

Time will tell. If they put off their decisions for a while, then we should all have a much better idea of how good our current big men will be.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

The way it is run there is no way to judge it's accuracy. They can flip-flop their predictions as much as the wind blows.

 

[tarheel0910]

The way it is run there is no way to judge it's accuracy. They can flip-flop their predictions as much as the wind blows.

It give the accuracy numbers for the individuals. The thing that many people don't understand is that the crystal ball is an average of many predictions. The crystal ball isn't actually making a prediction itself.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

It give the accuracy numbers for the individuals. The thing that many people don't understand is that the crystal ball is an average of many predictions. The crystal ball isn't actually making a prediction itself.

Yes, but said individual will change his vote over and over.

 

[tarheel0910]

Yes, but said individual will change his vote over and over.

Why wouldn't they do that? If new info comes out then they would be stupid not to. Ask Clint if he ever changes his prediction when new info comes out. Some of the more well respected posters on this site change their predictions too, citing new Intel they have received. Also, 247 shows how often they change their picks and when they change them. It's not some secret society.

 

[RoseHeel]

It's educated guessing. Nothing more or less. They've been wrong plenty of times before. Remember when all those "experts" were all wrong on DeAndre Ayton? I doubt that will be the last time either.

That being said, the percentage pretty much conforms to what the public perception on a school's chances with a recruit is at the present, and can be useful for passively following recruiting. According to the sample you provided, I'd say the CB is pretty accurate at this point in time. And I sure hope that changes, otherwise this class is gonna be thin in terms of talent.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Yes, but said individual will change his vote over and over.

A while back, they used to show when someone changed their vote. It doesn't look like they are doing that any more.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

the percentage pretty much conforms to what the public perception on a school's chances with a recruit is at the present, and can be useful for passively following recruiting.

Exactly. In fact, the CB has become a pillar of "public perception" simply because it is the only free service that gives you multiple ratings. So unless you are an insider or have your own sources, it's a good place to start.

I'm willing to assume that most of their predictors have at least as much knowledge as I have, and probably a good bit more. So it's a nice service to check with.

 

[Tom79]

Simply another resource.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Meanwhile . . . UCLA has moved into a tie with us for Baker.

 

[gauchoheel]

the percentage pretty much conforms to what the public perception on a school's chances with a recruit is at the present

I do think this is the one thing people consistently get wrong about the Crystal Ball. It's meant to show who each of the predictors think is the most likely landing spot, but the percentage has no bearing on how likely they think the player is to go there. This can be particularly misleading when there are only a few predictions. Example:

Bacot is 100% to UNC. Let's say there were only three predictions so far. That could mean:

Expert 1 thinks he has a 20% chance of going to UNC, and a 10% chance of going to 8 different schools individually
Expert 2 thinks he has a 40% chance of going to UNC, a 30% chance of going to UVA, a 20% chance of going to dook, and a 10% chance of going to NCSU.
Expert 1 thinks he has a 30% chance of going to UNC, and a 20% chance of going to UVA, and a 10% chance of going to 5 other schools

The way the Crystal Ball is set up, this registers as a 100% prediction for UNC (as all three experts think it's the most likely landing spot). But importantly, their actual averaged prediction gives him only a 30% chance of coming to Chapel Hill! This can mean a "100% prediction" still has the experts thinking it's unlikely a recruit actually goes to that school. Unfortunately, people often quote the Crystal Ball averages as though 100% means there is no chance the recruit doesn't land at that spot.

All that said, take the predictions with a grain of salt. They are always made with a high degree of uncertainty, and even the coaches often don't know where the recruits are planning to go for sure.

 

[HRTheCard]

Hi, are you guys still recruiting Josh Nickelberry? I saw on twitter some UNC page that you guys have backed off? If so, does anyone know why?

Thanks.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

I do think this is the one thing people consistently get wrong about the Crystal Ball. It's meant to show who each of the predictors think is the most likely landing spot, but the percentage has no bearing on how likely they think the player is to go there. This can be particularly misleading when there are only a few predictions. Example:

Bacot is 100% to UNC. Let's say there were only three predictions so far. That could mean:

Expert 1 thinks he has a 20% chance of going to UNC, and a 10% chance of going to 8 different schools individually
Expert 2 thinks he has a 40% chance of going to UNC, a 30% chance of going to UVA, a 20% chance of going to dook, and a 10% chance of going to NCSU.
Expert 1 thinks he has a 30% chance of going to UNC, and a 20% chance of going to UVA, and a 10% chance of going to 5 other schools

The way the Crystal Ball is set up, this registers as a 100% prediction for UNC (as all three experts think it's the most likely landing spot). But importantly, their actual averaged prediction gives him only a 30% chance of coming to Chapel Hill! This can mean a "100% prediction" still has the experts thinking it's unlikely a recruit actually goes to that school. Unfortunately, people often quote the Crystal Ball averages as though 100% means there is no chance the recruit doesn't land at that spot.

All that said, take the predictions with a grain of salt. They are always made with a high degree of uncertainty, and even the coaches often don't know where the recruits are planning to go for sure.

Thanks! Now it is clear as mud.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

We backed off NIckelberry and replaced him with a newcomer on the scene. This gritty youngster survived the mean streets and multiple foster homes before leading his team to the New London Orphan's League Title. He is a coach on the floor and a born gym rat who makes up for his lack of athleticism with an extremely high basketball IQ! He is also is known for being one tough little scalawag! (He can certainly keep the Family together!!)

I give you: Nicholas Nickleby-UNC recruit extraordinaire!

 

[truetarheelraider0806]

Hi, are you guys still recruiting Josh Nickelberry? I saw on twitter some UNC page that you guys have backed off? If so, does anyone know why?

Thanks.

We aren't sure why. At least anyone I talk to on hear or listen to on a regular basis

 

[HRTheCard]

We aren't sure why. St Seadt anyone I talk to on hear or listen to on a regular basis

Thank you

 

[truetarheelraider0806]

Thank you

No prob sorry about the misspellings .

 

[Archer2]

Crystal Ball, meet grain of salt.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Update 5/21/18

Louisville has surged into a big lead for Nickelberry.

UCLA has pulled into a tie with us for Baker.

We only lead for Bacot.

Player       Rank #P  Schools %                  Trend

Nickelberry  55   13  LVL 85% UNC 8% NCSU 8%     LVL
Moore        19   15  Duke 87% UNC 13%           Duke
Brooks       23    8  MSU 75% IND 25%            MSU
Carey         2   13  Duke 54% Miami 23% MSU 23% Duke
Hurt          5   10  KU 50% Minn 30% UNC 10%    KU
RobinsonEarl 21    7  KU 100%                    KU
Wiseman       1   17  Memph 53% UK 47%           Memph
Baker        16    7  UNC 43% UCLA 43% Texas 14% UCLA
Bacot        22   11  UNC 100%                   UNC

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Anybody have any inside info on Nickelberry? What's behind the sudden swing toward Louisville?

Will Cronin cause other recruiting problems for us? He has 33 offers out (I don't know if any of those are left over from Pitino or Padgett). Four to guys with UNC offers

Nickelberry
Brooks
Hurt
Robinson-Earl

He's a good coach. Other than 2 losing seasons when he took over Cincinnati, he's done very well (67.3% W-L record). Another low-tempo, tough D, but efficient offense kind of guy, it seems from a glance at recent years.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

So what would be appealing about a Low tempo, defensive focused team? I would think an uptempo, high risk/reward, play a lot of peeps type O would appeal to this generation!

 

[RoseHeel]

Anybody have any inside info on Nickelberry? What's behind the sudden swing toward Louisville?

Will Cronin cause other recruiting problems for us? He has 33 offers out (I don't know if any of those are left over from Pitino or Padgett). Four to guys with UNC offers

Nickelberry
Brooks
Hurt
Robinson-Earl

He's a good coach. Other than 2 losing seasons when he took over Cincinnati, he's done very well (67.3% W-L record). Another low-tempo, tough D, but efficient offense kind of guy, it seems from a glance at recent years.

Chalk the Louisville surge to the nature of the Crystal Ball. It was his first visit to any school since us back in September, so guys are quick to change their picks. At that point, we had a very comfortable lead.

I think its safe to say we've all but officially pulled out for Nickelberry sweepstakes. As to the why, your guess is as good as mine. He would be behind Robinson and Platek when he came in, but the fact that so many schools have went MIA on him makes me think it's not a playing time problem. He went from September 2017 to this February without any activity. Pretty strange.

 

[Tom79]

Louisville has really put it on for some kids. If I am a recruit no way I consider them or KU or any of the others in current hot agua.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

So what would be appealing about a Low tempo, defensive focused team? I would think an uptempo, high risk/reward, play a lot of peeps type O would appeal to this generation!

I think that's why guys like Bennett don't seem to have much luck recruiting the top-ranked recruits. He does very well with the guys he gets, of course. And guys who aren't high-ranked tend to stick around. So there are trade-offs.

Here's the breakdown of Bennett's recruits since 2014 (including 2014 and his 1 recruit, so far, for 2019):

Ranking  # Recruits
01-20   =   0
21-50   =   3
51-100  =   3
101-150 =   2
151-200 =   3
201-300 =   2
300+    =   3

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

For comparison purposes, here's that same breakdown for Carolina

Ranking  # Recruits
01-20   =   3
21-50   =   5
51-100  =   4
101-150 =   1
151-200 =   2
201-300 =   2
300+    =   0

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

And here's the same breakdown for Duke:

Ranking  # Recruits
01-20   =  18
21-50   =   4
51-100  =   2
101-150 =   0
151-200 =   0
201-300 =   2
300+    =   2

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

And here's a look at FSU. I think I owe Leonard Hamilton an apology. I've been saying what an under-performer he is. Because it always seems that he has talent that should produce better results. But looked at this way, he seems to do quite well with his talent. Maybe not as well as Bennett, but still pretty good.

Ranking   # Recruits
01-20   =    2
21-50   =    2
51-100  =    3
101-150 =    3
151-200 =    4
201-300 =    3*
300+    =    5**

* Includes 2 JC transfers
** Includes 2 NR players

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

And here's Boeheim and Syracuse. Another coach who does pretty well with good but unspectacular recruiting. Although he has gotten a few good transfers who aren't reflected here.

Ranking  # Recruits
01-20   =   0
21-50   =   4
51-100  =   5
101-150 =   3
151-200 =   2
201-300 =   2
300+    =   0

 

[dadika13]

The Crystal Ball is just an inner view of ourselves

 

[Tom79]

mirror ball, neil young

 

[TPFKAPFS]

So our wheelhouse and SU's as well is 21-100. I'll take that any day since they tend to stick around; they have less ego; they usually don't have the idiot parents; they expect to earn their time and take coaching; we don't have to compromise our ethics to recruit them; they know the U is more important than any one of them!

Forget the Top 10 unless they and their parents show some humility!
(and stay off my lawn!)

++Roy seems to relish growing this level to create winning TEAMS!

 

[ChapelHeeled]

Update 5/21/18

Louisville has surged into a big lead for Nickelberry.

UCLA has pulled into a tie with us for Baker.

We only lead for Bacot.

Player       Rank #P  Schools %                  Trend

Nickelberry  55   13  LVL 85% UNC 8% NCSU 8%     LVL
Moore        19   15  Duke 87% UNC 13%           Duke
Brooks       23    8  MSU 75% IND 25%            MSU
Carey         2   13  Duke 54% Miami 23% MSU 23% Duke
Hurt          5   10  KU 50% Minn 30% UNC 10%    KU
RobinsonEarl 21    7  KU 100%                    KU
Wiseman       1   17  Memph 53% UK 47%           Memph
Baker        16    7  UNC 43% UCLA 43% Texas 14% UCLA
Bacot        22   11  UNC 100%                   UNC

 

[ChapelHeeled]

No one knows the ACTUAL percentages. Your numbers however, do make UNC recruiting look HOPELESS (imo)...! So, job well done (how)...?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

No one knows the ACTUAL percentages. Your numbers however, do make UNC recruiting look HOPELESS (imo)...! So, job well done (how)...?

What a pessimist. Why do you hate Roy and UNC basketball?

 

[ChapelHeeled]

What a pessimist. Why do you hate Roy and UNC basketball?

Dookie dyed blue, it seems to me...

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Dookie dyed blue, it seems to me...

And here I thought you were a Carolina fan. My mistake. Your negative posting now makes more sense.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Update 5/30/18

A couple more predictions for Nickelberry have slightly strengthened the strong lean toward Louisville.

Brooks has picked up another prediction. Sadly, not for us, but for UK. Plus it looks like one MSU picker has flipped to UK.

Wiseman added another pick for Memphis; still close with UK.

Another pick for UNC to get Bacot. Still 100%. I hope he commits soon.

Player       Rank #P  Schools %                  Trend

Nickelberry  55   15  LVL 87% UNC 7% NCSU 7%     LVL
Moore        19   15  Duke 87% UNC 13%           No change
Brooks       23    9  MSU 56% IND 22% UK 22%     UK
Carey         2   13  Duke 54% Miami 23% MSU 23% No change
Hurt          5   10  KU 50% Minn 30% UNC 10%    No change
RobinsonEarl 21    7  KU 100%                    No change
Wiseman       1   18  Memph 56% UK 44%           Memph
Baker        16    7  UNC 43% UCLA 43% Texas 14% No change
Bacot        22   12  UNC 100%                   UNC

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Nickelberry to Louisville.