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[ETA: Schedule Released] The way-too-early rank the difficulty of each '16 opponent thread

TarHeelNation11

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Okay guys, to appease @WoadBlue (and myself) and get traffic up on this board, let's have at this. You can either rank our 12 opponents comparative to one another i.e. 1-12, or you can rank each opponent's difficulty on a scale of 1 to 10.

This thread is "way too early" because not only do we not know at this point exactly how good these teams will be, we also do not know the complete schedule order. As we all know, when you play a certain team or stretch of games plays a part in the likelihood of you beating said team(s). Please see this link here for the listing of schools we play in 2016.

2016 Home opponents
James Madison (9/17)
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech
NC State
The Citadel (11/19)

2016 Away / Neutral opponents
Georgia (in Atlanta, 9/3)
Illinois (9/10)
Duke
Miami
Virginia
Florida State
 
1. Georgia
2. FSU
3. Pitt
4. VT
5. GT
6. dook
7. Miami
8. moo
9. Virginia
10. Illinois
11. The Citadel
12. James Madison

This is purely subjective based on no research whatsoever. Obviously ranked from most difficult to least. Numbers 5 thru 9 are pretty much interchangeable however, just depends on how they are playing and how we are playing. Trying to help you and Woad keep football alive THN11.
 
Florida State
Georgia
Pitt
Miami
Duke
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Illinois
Virginia
NC State
The Citadel
James Madison

Couldn't have an SEC team at the top. I think @Miami will be tough, I have a feeling Richt will have his squad up for that game, since they'll be facing the defending coastal champs. For the most part I picked road/netural games to be harder than home games.
 
FSU has to be the toughest on the schedule next year. Looks like they will
return their whole offense. Georgia is no slouch, but with a new coach in
the first game and it being away from their home stadium, I can't put them
ahead of FSU. Miami should be in high gear by the time UNC faces them.
Tough away schedule for sure!
 
Order of difficulty for us considering away/home.

1. Florida State - Dalvin Cook will be a giant test for our D. They have athletes on D regardless of NFL defections.

2. Georgia - They lose SIX of their starting front 7 on D. But apparently Trent Thompson and other studs are in the wings. I think we go in favored despite the home disadvantage.

3. Pitt - O returns most of the team, D loses a bunch

4. Miami - It is away, but do their fans show up now that Richt is in town? no. Offense just loses two WR's i think. If they can cut penalties it might be a decent O. They gotta replace their entire secondary since Artie Burns is leaving early for nfl.

Tie 5 Georgia Tech - O will probably be much improved, D might not be good.

Tie 5. Virginia Tech - transition... but they'll probably be about the same, unless new QB is great.

7. NCSU - their Offense might take a step back, losing three olinemen and their QB, but they've got good skills - Hines, Dayes, Samuels. D might be a tad better. If they have a mobile, good QB, this will put them at above VaTech/GaTech

8. Duke - doesn't lose a ton, but they are really good guys, like Norman, Cash, their center. They've had bad recruiting classes, does it show this yr?

9. Illinois - it's a farther flight, hence tougher than uva.
10. Virginia
11. The Citadel
12. James Madison

Miami badly needed some coaching, but I think i'm a tiny more worried about Pitt. VaTech and NCSU could move depending on how good their new QB plays.
 
Difficulty ranking on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most difficult:

- UGA in Atlanta 9 -- I know that UGA is down for their standards and I know they'll have a new coach and first-year QB, but these are the types of games we haven't proven we can win. It will be a 70-30 UGA crowd (at BEST) and Nick Chubb may rush for 250 yards against us.

- at Florida State 9 -- most intense atmosphere we'll have faced since 2013 Clemson. Playmakers at every position. This is big boy football.

- at Miami 7 -- they've got Kaaya, speed, and now a rejuvenated Mark Richt. If more than 30,000 people show up at the game, this game gets bumped up to an 8.

- Virginia Tech 7 -- I have no idea what to expect now that VT has a head coach who actually knows how to teach offense. And as always, Bud Foster's maniac defense will give us all we can handle. Just like we do against GT, we always seem to transform the VT game from a "game we should win handily" to a "nail-biter," so this one gets a 7.

- at Illinois 6 -- it's a road game against a Power 5 team, following the tough UGA game. Should be a win for the Heels though in all honesty. We have more talent at just about every position.

- Georgia Tech 6 -- Justin Thomas is back and they are bound to have much fewer injuries than they did last season. However, it's in Chapel Hill and the "GT Hex" is borderline in the rearview now.....or is it? A game we should win, but they always give us problems

- NC State 5 -- and ''5'' is a stretch here too. This honestly shouldn't be a tough game except for the obvious 'it's a rivalry' part. They have good running backs and a good DLine and that's about it. QB is a major question mark (but of course it will be the end of the season when we play them).

- Pitt 5 -- will Connor be back? Street will be gone. They've still got issues at QB, and we get them in Chapel Hill. A game we have no business losing if we want to have another banner year.

- at Duke 4 -- come on, it's Duke. It will be a home game for us, despite being in Durham, and Jamison Crowder isn't walking through that door.

- at Virginia 4 -- this would be a very, very bad loss for us. The Charlottesville hex is dead.

- The Citadel 3 -- I know they beat SCar last season but they should look like they're in slow motion considering we're already have prepared for and played Georgia Tech before this game.

- James Madison 2 -- fire everyone is we lose


Comparative ranking, 1 being the toughest team we face and 12 being the easiest:


1. UGA in Atlanta
2. at FSU
3. at Miami
4. Virginia Tech
5. Georgia Tech
6. at Illinois
7. NC State
8. Pitt
9. at Duke
10. at Virginia
11. The Citadel
12. James Madison
 
Okay guys, to appease @WoadBlue (and myself) and get traffic up on this board, let's have at this. You can either rank our 12 opponents comparative to one another i.e. 1-12, or you can rank each opponent's difficulty on a scale of 1 to 10.

This thread is "way too early" because not only do we not know at this point exactly how good these teams will be, we also do not know the complete schedule order. As we all know, when you play a certain team or stretch of games plays a part in the likelihood of you beating said team(s). Please see this link here for the listing of schools we play in 2016.

2016 Home opponents
James Madison (9/17)
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech
NC State
The Citadel (11/19)

2016 Away / Neutral opponents
Georgia (in Atlanta, 9/3)
Illinois (9/10)
Duke
Miami
Virginia
Florida State


#1.FSU--The Noles return their starting QB, Cook at RB and a lot of OL along with several WRs....The Defense will also be improved IMO, and the game could be a Thursday Night or Prime Time Saturday affair, so there's that along with a big rowdy crowd...Agree that the Clemson game in Death Valley a couple years ago will be somewhat comparable in terms of the venue, but I hope we have a better result this time around than when we got pounded in Deshawn Watson's debut against the Tar Heels in Death Valley?....

#2.UGA---It's hard to get a gage on the Bulldogs just yet with Kirby Smart returning to his alma-mater, but they do return Chubb and Michel at RB and the Eason kid will likely start from day 1 at QB, which might give us a better shot at beating Georgia in their back yard, since the game will kickoff the 2016 season?....Gonna be tough for sure, but I like our chances on a neutral field, rather than between the hedges....

#3.Miami--The game is in Coral Gables, and Mark Richt is putting together an impressive staff, especially on defense for the Canes, and he's an alumnus who has a bunch of contacts for one of the best recruiting hotbeds in the country....This year's version will hardly resemble last year's version of the Canes with the exception of the returning QB who will likely be much improved under Richt...The Canes could be a very difficult team to handle late in the year, so when this game is scheduled will have a big impact on how the Tar Heels fair in this game IMO..

#4.Illinois---I call this the "Between the Ears" game, meaning how motivated will the team be to play this game after blowing-out the Illini this past season in Chapel Hill?....If there's a game on the schedule where the team may have a letdown, I could see it happening with this game...

#5. Pittsburgh--The Panthers kinda slipped up on a lot of folk last year, but that won't be the case this year...Not to mention, OC Jim Chaney is now at Georgia, while fired NCST OC Matt Canada is the new OC at Pitt....Pitt loses ultra-playmaker Tyler Boyd to the NFL....The Panther D will still be tough, but I like our chances this year more than I did last year...

$6. UVA--Every road game is tough, and the oldest rivalry in the south just got a whole lot tougher with the hiring of Bronco Mendenhall and most of his former BYU coaching staff....Granted he's got his work cut out for himself, but he also knows how to produce a productive QB which is something that the Wahoos have sorely lacked the last several years....Not to mention, the Tidewater recruiting area which can accelerate the growth and improvement of the football program....It was a homerun hire for the Wahoos IMO...

#7.Ga. Tech--It's hard to imagine the Yellowjackets having another year as they had this past season when their team was decimated by early season injuries, especially the backfield....One doesn't have to look very hard to find the one team that has been a big thorn in the side of the Tar Heels for the last decade or so....Hopefully, that comeback in Atlanta last year, and the confidence gained by it, will pay dividends this year in Chapel Hill with most of our Defense returning....It is however concerning that we will be likely breaking-in a couple new starters at LBer, which is tough when you face the option offense of the Yellowjackets...

#8.Va Tech--The Hokies will be tough on defense as usual, but they do lose their all-american Fuller from the secondary to the NFL, which gives the Tar Heels' passing attack an advantage....The biggest difference between this year's Hokies as opposed to last year is new Coach Justin Fuentes who will bring a much different approach to the offense of the Hokies....Glad the game is in Chapel Hill this year....

#9.Duke--Two butt-kickings in a row is not going to sit well with the Bluedevils....It's true that Cash is headed to the NFL, but overall I believe that Duke will be improved on defense next year as they seemed to have been recruiting much better on that side of the ball the last couple of years....They do lose a couple playmakers, but Cutcliffe is a hellava offensive mind that may have a more productive offense this year than last, even though their former OC is now head man at East Carolina?

#10.NCST-State replaces their OC, who Pitt Coach Pat Narduzzi stated on Pantherlair, was actually his first choice for OC when he took the Pitt job before settling on Jim Chaney when Canada stayed with the Wolfpack....Does state have another big mobile QB like Jacoby Brissett in the wings?...I know they return a stable of RBs who were banged-up most of the season, and they do return some talented youngsters on defense, but I still don't believe that the Wolfpack will be able to keep up with the Tar Heels offensively this year in Chapel Hill....Just hope this time when the Tar Heels jump out to a big lead(35-0) on the Wolfpack that they'll just keep pouring it on, and not let them back in the game as they did this past year....

#11.James Madison--The Dukes have a new Coach, and will likely be much- improved over last season...Don't mind at the moment playing one FCS school, but we've got to get two of them off the schedule if we ever expect to get any credit from the playoff selection committee...

#12.The Citadel--The Cadets will have a new coach as former coach Mike Houston is the new man at James Madison, thus the reason I gave the Dukes the edge over the Cadets as being the tougher opponent...

As mentioned by the OP, it's really hard to determine the order of the toughest games until the schedule comes out, and we see what impact the new recruits make, or what kids decide to transfer or leave their respective football programs for some other reason prior to the start of fall practice...

But that's my take for what it's worth!
 
Hey all, long time reader first time poster. Figured I'd jump in with an opinion, so here we go:

1.) Florida State- Continuity can do a ton for a team, which is why I have them ranked over UGA. That and Dalvin Cook is a freak of nature who will be super tough to stop without more from the milddle of our defensive line. I really hope Chizik can get that part of the defense straightened out but it's gotta be tough when the cupboard is just downright bare at the true run stuffing defensive tackle spot.

2.) Georgia- New coach, maybe a freshman QB, BUT the big thing is again their running game. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are both back for next season if i'm correct and again that plays right into our deepest fear: the run game. Luckily they lose Theus on the o-line, that guy was/is a mauler.

3.) VA Tech- Bud Foster's defense always gives us fits and now that Fuente is there to fix their absymal offense they really scare the bejesus out of me. I think we will get them in 2016 but I'm worried about how good this team could be going forward.

4.) Miami- I'm still not drinking the Kool Aid on Brad Kaaya. I get that his numbers are usually pretty above average but I feel like ever time I've ever seen him play he crumbles in big games. You can't count out the effect Mark Richt will have though, again I think we win in 2016 but I'm nervous about the future with the way Richt can recruit with the best of them.

5.) Georgia Tech- Damn this team. Every year, EVERY YEAR we should beat these chop blocking assholes and every year they make it so damn difficult. Their defense should be atrocious as always but that run game again plays into my biggest fear for our team, defensive line play.

6.) Pitt- Narduzzi is slowly building the exact kind of defense he wants at Pitt and if James Connor can win his battle with cancer and get back on the field there's really no telling how good he can be.

7.) Virginia- I always felt bad for these guys because you could tell the talent was there in terms of players, but Mike London was just a terrible coach. Now they have a guy who can light a fire under this team in Bronco Mendenhall. Also Taquan Mizzell is a freak of an athlete which bumps this team ahead of the rest of these jamokes at the bottom of the list.

8.) Duke- Should have no problem with this team

9.) NC State- God it'd be great to see Doeren get the boot.

10.) Illinois- Why is anyone worried about this team?

11.) JMU- Talent level just isn't there for them, though they aren't as bad as some D-! teams (looking at you UNC Charlotte)

12.) The Citadel- Fun fact, they refused to have their university used in House of Cards as the place Frank Underwood graduated from. So there's that.
 
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Hey all, long time reader first time poster. Figured I'd jump in with an opinion, so here we go:

1.) Florida State- Continuity can do a ton for a team, which is why I have them ranked over UGA. That and Dalvin Cook is a freak of nature who will be super tough to stop without more from the milddle of our defensive line. I really hope Chizik can get that part of the defense straightened out but it's gotta be tough when the cupboard is just downright bare at the true run stuffing defensive tackle spot.

2.) Georgia- New coach, maybe a freshman QB, BUT the big thing is again their running game. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are both back for next season if i'm correct and again that plays right into our deepest fear: the run game. Luckily they lose Theus on the o-line, that guy was/is a mauler.

3.) VA Tech- Bud Foster's defense always gives us fits and now that Fuente is there to fix their absymal offense they really scare the bejesus out of me. I think we will get them in 2016 but I'm worried about how good this team could be going forward.

4.) Miami- I'm still not drinking the Kool Aid on Brad Kaaya. I get that his numbers are usually pretty above average but I feel like ever time I've ever seen him play he crumbles in big games. You can't count out the effect Mark Richt will have though, again I think we win in 2016 but I'm nervous about the future with the way Richt can recruit with the best of them.

5.) Georgia Tech- Damn this team. Every year, EVERY YEAR we should beat these chop blocking assholes and every year they make it so damn difficult. Their defense should be atrocious as always but that run game again plays into my biggest fear for our team, defensive line play.

6.) Pitt- Narduzzi is slowly building the exact kind of defense he wants at Pitt and if James Connor can win his battle with cancer and get back on the field there's really no telling how good he can be.

7.) Virginia- I always felt bad for these guys because you could tell the talent was there in terms of players, but Mike London was just a terrible coach. Now they have a guy who can light a fire under this team in Bronco Mendenhall. Also Taquan Mizzell is a freak of an athlete which bumps this team ahead of the rest of these jamokes at the bottom of the list.

8.) Duke- Should have no problem with this team

9.) NC State- God it'd be great to see Doeren get the boot.

10.) Illinois- Why is anyone worried about this team?

11.) JMU- Talent level just isn't there for them, though they aren't as bad as some D-! teams (looking at you UNC Charlotte)

12.) The Citadel- Fun fact, they refused to have their university used in House of Cards as the place Frank Underwood graduated from. So there's that.
Welcome aboard and you make some excellent points. I, too, am terrified about VT now they have a competent offensive mind. Bud Foster can retire any time now please.....
 
Good points about wanting to face Miami sooner than late in the season. For many yrs now i've been thinking our team would be much better at the end of the yr, rather than early. Not this yr, I'm glad we have UGA early, and hopefully we get miami early. Aside from LB, we are pretty experienced everywhere.

And regarding GT and our LBs - i'm not sure about Cayson as an everydown, starting LB, but he was a monster vs GT this yr. The guy is physical, if you tell him to ":take the dive", he does a really good job of attacking and staying focused. I might worry about him vs spread teams, or someone which lots of confusion schemes, but not vs GT.
 
Obviously, FSU at home is a tough game for anyone, period. But we can win it. Wish it were at Kenan.

To me, the GA game in the opener is huge. You don't want guys that are getting used to winning, expecting to win, learning to win, etc,....to lose 3 straight even if the last 2 were from last season. Winning against quality opponents IS a big deal.
 
FSU much better overall team right now than Georgia but environment in Ga Dome will be difficult for the road team - place is really loud as you know if you've ever been there.
 
I might drop GT a spot or two from my original rankings. Having the bye week the week before should give plenty of time to prepare for the high school offense. Duke on a short week, and on a Thursday night may make that game a little more difficult than initially thought, but I had them fairly high (probably higher than they deserved) to begin with.

I realize with UGA (essentially on the road) and @FSU, that our chances of being in the playoff picture are lower than last year, but if there's any bottom of the barrel FBS team that has an open date on 10/29 we should look into booking that and telling JMU or the Citadel to go pound sand. I realize the feasibility of that is probably slim to none, but if possible would be a nice way to kill the "2 FCS" narrative.
 
i'm holding firm on mine. It is probably meaningless, but Fed teams have done well on a short week, so I still have dook below ncsu.
 
10-2 regular season is my most positive expectation; saying we lose at FSU, and then either at Miami or the UGA game. Worst case is we drop those 3 and some other game that we should win (VT or GT) and go 8-4.
 
12-0, undefeated in regular season. Offense is unstoppable, defensive secondary one of the best in the nation, and the D-line much better than last season. Still not the best run defense against teams with a great O-line and running game, but enough to get more stops than we did last year against elite teams.

Special teams....off the hook good.

That's my prediction and sticking to it.
 
1 - FSU
2 - Miami
3 - UGa
4-10 - All the rest in whatever order you like
11-12 - JMU and Citadel
 
Finished watching the basketball game this morning. I get too wrapped up in those games - already missing football.

1. FSU - return 11 starters on offense.
2. UGA - a lot of talent on paper.
3. Miami - could decide who wins the coastal.
4. GaTech - will test our LBs.
5. VaTech - i reserve the right to drop these guys after spring.
6. Pitt - shouldn't be as close as last season.
7. Duke - you can't fake having DTs.
8. State - their bowl game.
9. Va - some unknowns, but not enough.
10. ill - how I'd feel if we lost this one.
11. JMU - should roll.
12. tCitadel - one FCS opponent was enough.

Win the games we're supposed to and we win the division. Clemson loses a lot on defense for the second year in a row. FSU gets them at home. So, we'd be looking at a rematch in the ACCCG.
 
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Difficulty ranking on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most difficult:


- Pitt 5 -- will Connor be back? Street will be gone. They've still got issues at QB, and we get them in Chapel Hill. A game we have no business losing if we want to have another banner year.


Connor has cancer and he will be out for a while. Tyler Boyd is gone.
 
Connor has cancer and he will be out for a while. Tyler Boyd is gone.
Idk why I said Street. I meant Tyler Boyd. And I know Connor has cancer, that's why I rhetorically asked if he'll be back or not. I'm hopeful he'll be back because that will mean he's beat cancer.
 
Everything I've read says that Conner will be back, but what impact will he make?...The Ollison(sp?) kid I believe was part of the All-ACC freshman team as a RB, and looked pretty good at times....

Also would like to see Conner back on the field for reasons mentioned above....

I'm for anybody that beats Cancer!
 
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