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The key to this season

TarHeelNation11

TarHeelNation11

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Mar 9, 2007
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....it's come up in several threads, all with different themes. When you break everything down, all signs eventually point to this one facet. This one factor will determine whether we're able to transcend from an "OK season" to a "great season."

Any guesses on what it is?
 
oh damn, I forgot about that!

Can I change my answer to Frosted Flakes?

seriously, don't know what aspect other than 180 degree turnaround in defense you're looking for.
 
^ The defense is what it is, for now. It will get better, but slowly.

Raising Heel said:
I have to eat at least one concession stand hot dog every game. Pretty sure we're undefeated when that happens.
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Hmm, you spend money on food at Kenan?? Dang. Only time I ever get anything there is a tall Coke for my mini bottles. Other than that, concession lines are way too long and unwieldy for me to waste my time on.

But for real y'all, what's the one thing we have the talent for, but were woeful at last season?
 
rods-reels-tackle.jpg
 
Raising Heel said:
*In my best 'every UNC fan in Kenan last year' voice*

Run the damn ball, Larry!
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Ding, ding, ding.

Establishing a running game is the key for this season. As I said above, the defense is what it is. It's a massive rebuild; it will improve, but it will do so slowly. The offense will have to carry this team to where it once to go. To that end, and to aid the offense and the defense, a running game has to be established -- a traditional running game with the running backs.

If we could consistently get 4-5 yards a carry (very doable in a spread offense), it's a game-change for the offense, and thus the team. Establish a running game with Logan/Morris (lightning) and Hood (thunder) forces the defense to think about putting an extra guy in the box. If they do so, we can create matchup problems galore. If they don't do so, we continue to run the ball effectively until they do. Furthermore, running the ball keeps the clock moving, and will slow our drives down which will increase our time of possession. All of these things keep the opposing offense off the field.

I'm on record saying I don't feel great about this season. But if our OL, RB's, and OC can work together to establish an effective running game, 9+ wins becomes a possibility.
 
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Raising Heel said:
Considering I almost have to bribe people to take my second ticket (rarely the same person twice), I've never really developed a tailgating routine. Even with tailgating, a game is still 3 hours long and sometimes I get hungry. Also, I love wieners.
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Your tailgating game will upgrade tenfold this season. We may only win 6 games, but we will undefeated in tailgating.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
Ding, ding, ding.

Establishing a running game is the key for this season. As I said above, the defense is what it is. It's a massive rebuild; it will improve, but it will do so slowly. The offense will have to carry this team to where it once to go. To that end, and to aid the offense and the defense, a running game has to be established -- a traditional running game with the running backs.

If we could consistently get 4-5 yards a carry (very doable in a spread offense), it's a game-change for the offense, and thus the team. Establish a running game with Logan/Morris (lightning) and Hood (thunder) forces the defense to think about putting an extra guy in the box. If they do so, we can create matchup problems galore. If they don't do so, we continue to run the ball effectively until they do. Furthermore, running the ball keeps the clock moving, and will slow our drives down which will increase our time of possession. All of these things keep the opposing offense off the field.

I'm on record saying I don't feel great about this season. But if our OL, RB's, and OC can work together to establish an effective running game, 9+ wins becomes a possibility.
Click to expand...

this assessment seems correct. chizik will improve our schemes and fundamentals, but he's not going to turn this defense around in one year or even two. there's no quick fix for talent level and depth. what's the best thing carolina can do to help our defense this year? KEEP THEM OFF THE FIELD! keep them fresh and ready for a strong 4th quarter, not worn down and weak from a lopsided time of possession which happened game after game last year. two ways to achieve thatl: better third down conversion rate and (back to the thread) a RUNNING GAME instead of a quick strike offense with is fun to watch until you see the final score which is no fun at all.
 
JimmyinVA said:
what's the best thing carolina can do to help our defense this year? KEEP THEM OFF THE FIELD! keep them fresh and ready for a strong 4th quarter, not worn down and weak from a lopsided time of possession which happened game after game last year.
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Fans need to let go of the obsession with TOP for a couple reasons.

One, Fedora just isn't going to slow down the pace. He is convinced -- right or wrong -- that it provides a strategic advantage to snap the ball as quickly as allowed. The only exception is when we have a comfortable lead late in the game and he's trying to salt away clock like in the dook game last season.

Secondly, and I know folks aren't going to believe this, but there is very little statistical correlation between average time of possession and winning percentage. Of the 23 teams with 10+ wins last season, 13 of them had average TOPs less than 30 minutes. Fedora's first UNC team averaged a 27-minute TOP -- 4th worst nationally -- and still went 8-4. It just doesn't matter.

What does matter is offensive efficiency, so I agree with all the comments about needing to run the ball better and improve our 3rd down conversion percentage. Whatever it takes to keep the chains moving.

[Edit to add:] Also, the defense needs to do its part to keep itself off the field. IMO the primary blame is theirs alone. Look at Florida. Their offense has been absolutely pitiful the last couple seasons, yet their defense continued to get stops despite spending most of the game on the field.
 
Raising Heel said:
Fans need to let go of the obsession with TOP for a couple reasons.

One, Fedora just isn't going to slow down the pace. He is convinced -- right or wrong -- that it provides a strategic advantage to snap the ball as quickly as allowed. The only exception is when we have a comfortable lead late in the game and he's trying to salt away clock like in the dook game last season.
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Yes, agreed that we will never win the TOP battle with this current offense. That's not what I meant to imply in my last post. The TOP situation will be what it will be. I'm simply saying an effective running game does two things:

1). Keeps clock running whereas a pass stops the clock. Obviously only ~5 seconds will run off the clock between plays, but at least it's better than 0 seconds.
2). Might prolong drives and tick a few more precious seconds off the clock. For example, instead of a TD drive that consists of several incomplete passes but also big gains and takes 1:05 off the clock, maybe we can get a 10-play TD drive with all positive, clock-keeps-running plays that takes 1:45 off the clock.

I'm talking small chunks of time ticking away because of a better running game. I'm not suggesting we're suddenly going to kill time in a GT-esque fashion.
 
Raising Heel said:
Fans need to let go of the obsession with TOP for a couple reasons.

One, Fedora just isn't going to slow down the pace. He is convinced -- right or wrong -- that it provides a strategic advantage to snap the ball as quickly as allowed. The only exception is when we have a comfortable lead late in the game and he's trying to salt away clock like in the dook game last season.

Secondly, and I know folks aren't going to believe this, but there is very little statistical correlation between average time of possession and winning percentage. Of the 23 teams with 10+ wins last season, 13 of them had average TOPs less than 30 minutes. Fedora's first UNC team averaged a 27-minute TOP -- 4th worst nationally -- and still went 8-4. It just doesn't matter.

What does matter is offensive efficiency, so I agree with all the comments about needing to run the ball better and improve our 3rd down conversion percentage. Whatever it takes to keep the chains moving.

[Edit to add:] Also, the defense needs to do its part to keep itself off the field. IMO the primary blame is theirs alone. Look at Florida. Their offense has been absolutely pitiful the last couple seasons, yet their defense continued to get stops despite spending most of the game on the field.
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I'm with Jimmy on this one. Young defenses don't need to spend too much time on the field and TOP is hugely important to their results. The longer they are forced to be on the field the more exposed they become. With that said they do need to help themselves with the correct play calls/reads and stop the other team on third down. I can't think of a highly successful college coach who would tell you "I don't want to win TOP and/or don't care about it". The good ones want their offense on the field because that is the best way to score points and a rested defense.
 
ball4me2 said:
I can't think of a highly successful college coach who would tell you "I don't want to win TOP and/or don't care about it".
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- Chip Kelly
- Gus Malzahn
- Mark Helfrich
- any coach that runs the spread

This offense doesn't care about TOP. To run it correctly and effectively, you pretty much have to lose the TOP battle. Koenning knew this and still signed on, and Chizik knows this and still signed on. Now, is there something to be said for swapping out "dead clock" plays (incomplete passes) for "running clock" plays (runs)? Yes. That's what I was referring to -- situational clock management/milking. But it's relative: for this offense, "milking clock" means a 1:45 drive instead of a 1:10 minute drive.
 
I think the turnaround on D will be quicker than most of us think. Well, not a turn around to being a GOOD defense, but I think they'll get back to average fairly quickly.


Last year's D was playing a complicated scheme, with the wrong personnel, poor fundamentals, and a less competent DC. Add that on top of bad attitudes and you have the perfect storm of suckiness.


By my count at least 3/5 of those problems have already been fixed. Maybe 4/5 if you consider the fact that the personnel will be much better suited for the simpler scheme. Fundamentals do take time, but there shouldn't be that much these guys haven't already learned... From what I can tell, under Koenning they spent less time teaching and practicing fundamentals, and more time to trying to teach the concepts of the scheme. Chizik is the exact opposite style of coach.


A consistently successful running game will change everything though...
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
- Chip Kelly
- Gus Malzahn
- Mark Helfrich
- any coach that runs the spread

This offense doesn't care about TOP. ... for this offense, "milking clock" means a 1:45 drive instead of a 1:10 minute drive.
Click to expand...

in that case you better have plenty of depth on defense, because they're going to be on the field a lot. a spread team without depth on def is going to see one of two things (or both): 1) tired guys at crunch time, or 2) guys taking plays off (euphemistically called "pacing yourself"). when spread teams are successful it's partly because of good depth on defense. carolina will have that in a few years when chizik impacts our recruiting. but until then we need to use our excellent talent at running back and give our defense a breather with first downs and time consuming drives. a coach's game plans need to match his personnel -- not his rigid philosophy.
 
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JimmyinVA said:
in that case you better have plenty of depth on defense, because they're going to be on the field a lot. a spread team without depth on def is going to see one of two things (or both): 1) tired guys at crunch time, or 2) guys taking plays off (euphemistically called "pacing yourself"). when spread teams are successful it's partly because of good depth on defense. carolina will have that in a few years when chizik impacts our recruiting. but until then we need to use our excellent talent at running back and give our defense a breather with first downs and time consuming drives. a coach's game plans need to match his personnel -- not his rigid philosophy.
Click to expand...
I agree -- we need defensive depth badly. And that makes the last few year's inability to recruit defense as proficiently as we've recruited offense even more glaring.

And yeah, I mean, it would probably behoove the staff to switch things up and, at times, deviate to a more 'conventional' offense that utilizes more of the game clock and keeps the defense off the field. But I wouldn't hold your breath on it because it's probably not going to happen much, if at all. Fedora is married to the fast-pace spread, rightly or wrongly.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
^ The defense is what it is, for now. It will get better, but slowly.

Hmm, you spend money on food at Kenan?? Dang. Only time I ever get anything there is a tall Coke for my mini bottles. Other than that, concession lines are way too long and unwieldy for me to waste my time on.

But for real y'all, what's the one thing we have the talent for, but were woeful at last season?
Click to expand...


I'm thinking successful, fundamental tackling. Defense in general actually.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
I agree -- we need defensive depth badly. And that makes the last few year's inability to recruit defense as proficiently as we've recruited offense even more glaring.

And yeah, I mean, it would probably behoove the staff to switch things up and, at times, deviate to a more 'conventional' offense that utilizes more of the game clock and keeps the defense off the field. But I wouldn't hold your breath on it because it's probably not going to happen much, if at all. Fedora is married to the fast-pace spread, rightly or wrongly.
Click to expand...

i agree. when we get enough good defensive players to substitute freely without a big talent drop off we'll be fine. i'm just tempering my expectations for this year.
 
I do believe the D will improve, but we also need to be able kick a 45 - 50 yard field goal. Ok who am I kidding. Let's be able to line up and kick the extra point.

We need more out of our special teams than we got last year.
 
Has anyone heard anything about what went on in the lockerroom those last two games? It was obvious to me there were some serious issues. Players quit. There was dissension and division. Theres no sugar coating it. Was that handled? That to me is by far the biggest issue heading into this season.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
Ding, ding, ding.

Establishing a running game is the key for this season. As I said above, the defense is what it is. It's a massive rebuild; it will improve, but it will do so slowly. The offense will have to carry this team to where it once to go. To that end, and to aid the offense and the defense, a running game has to be established -- a traditional running game with the running backs.

If we could consistently get 4-5 yards a carry (very doable in a spread offense), it's a game-change for the offense, and thus the team. Establish a running game with Logan/Morris (lightning) and Hood (thunder) forces the defense to think about putting an extra guy in the box. If they do so, we can create matchup problems galore. If they don't do so, we continue to run the ball effectively until they do. Furthermore, running the ball keeps the clock moving, and will slow our drives down which will increase our time of possession. All of these things keep the opposing offense off the field.

I'm on record saying I don't feel great about this season. But if our OL, RB's, and OC can work together to establish an effective running game, 9+ wins becomes a possibility.
Click to expand...


It is very doable to average 5 yards per carry in a spread IF the Ds are indeed spread over the field. And that happens only whe the spread QB forces Ds to cover sideline to sideline. He does that in 1 of 2 ways: (1) the QB is as fast as WVU's Pat White was, whgjch means his super speed spreads the field, or (2) the QB passes the ball well from sideline to sideline.

If you don;t have one of those, Ds will concentrate in the middle of the field and clog the RB running game.
 
heelmanwilm said:
Has anyone heard anything about what went on in the lockerroom those last two games? It was obvious to me there were some serious issues. Players quit. There was dissension and division. Theres no sugar coating it. Was that handled? That to me is by far the biggest issue heading into this season.
Click to expand...

I don't know of any definitive answer. There was much talk, and probably all of it was some part of what came to a head then. Some said it was about the D quitting on the staff. Others that it was WRs and/or RBs upset about not getting the ball. Others that it was players on Offense trashing players on D.
 
A great QB can change a team.

Marshall with Pennington and Moss was a very good team, same with Cato as their QB. Duante Culpepper made UCF more than they were as did Pat White with WVU.

If a QB is ineffective, decent defenses can stop a spread offense by loading the box.
 
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Stop playing in games where, by looking at the score, you'd think it was a basketball game. In other words, make the team punt, for goodness sake. Oh, and the whole "give the ball to your running back and let him, you know, run" trick, that should be used more too.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
Assume the 'W' for NC A&T and Delaware. For every other game.......try to reach that sweet spot of tipsy/drunk where you're fully functional but the pain is dulled enough that you're not inclined to punch the person next to you ;)
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For him that is zero. He is a very mean drunk- you should have seen him talking shit to the Syracuse fan at the lacrosse game.
 
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The key to the season comes down to Oline play. That is where everything happens. You want 4-5 yards a carry, you need great Oline play. You want your QB to not be the leading rusher? Maybe if the Oline wasn't a sieve last season, his rushes would have been less. Oline play is the key, then utilizing a more balanced approach. Run them young backs. More two back sets. Even try and put Morris in at slot for a couple of plays with the two back set.
 
Tarheel94 said:
The key to the season comes down to Oline play. That is where everything happens. You want 4-5 yards a carry, you need great Oline play. You want your QB to not be the leading rusher? Maybe if the Oline wasn't a sieve last season, his rushes would have been less. .
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i agree that the o-line is probably the most important unit on the field. but i don't agree that our o-line gets the blame for lack of a running game last season. plays involving our running backs were not called that often, and marquise often failed to spot open secondary receivers before choosing to scramble.
 
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JimmyinVA said:
i agree that the o-line is probably the most important unit on the field. but i don't agree that our o-line gets the blame for lack of a running game last season. plays involving our running backs were not called that often, and marquise often failed to spot open secondary receivers before choosing to scramble.
Click to expand...
This ^

O-Line gets some blame but the play calling and decision-making were problematic
 
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