Will the Heels win out?

[uncboy10]

After beating FSU we've got a pretty good chance of winning out IMO. The biggest test is probably going to be Miami, but VT should be pretty tough as well. After the next two weeks, any loss would be a major head scratcher.

Here's how the FPI rates our chances.

65.2% vs Va. Tech
37.7% vs Miami
85.5% vs Virginia
85.7% vs Ga. Tech
82.6% vs Duke
98.2% vs The Citadel
76.9% vs the wusspeckers

 

[johnwalden]

I think we have 2 more losses due to there being 2 more games our defense will be needed to win and I don't think they have the horses. 9-3 finish

 

[Littlejon]

I agree that VT and Miami are the toughest games left, but you have to remember that the peckers will come to play no matter what. This is their NC game every year and the one game their entire world hangs on. Beating us would be better than winning every other game to them, so we can't sleep on them. Plus, they enter the arse kicking portion of their schedule this week, with losses likely coming in mass numbers from this point on, so they will be in a pretty sour mood by the time they play us.

Of course that would make beating them even sweeter to add one more loss to their season and ending it on a sour note. Anytime we can beat those pig molesters it is a good thing.

 

[strummingram]

I think I would like to see them be 1-0 next week.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I think I would like to see them be 1-0 next week.

Absolutely! But yeah, the next two weeks are absolutely pivotal. They will be the proverbial "make or break" of our season. I'm excited!

 

[Archer2]

I hate to even speculate at this point but I'd have to say the chances are slim that we win out. We could realistically lose to anybody left on our schedule except the Citadel. VT has had an extra week to prepare and Bud Foster is a very good DC. I'm worried about that game right now.

IOW, we could win out or we could lose 2-3 more. Our margin of error isn't very big when your defense is porous and you're relying on your offense to win every week.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I hate to even speculate at this point but I'd have to say the chances are slim that we win out. We could realistically lose to anybody left on our schedule except the Citadel. VT has had an extra week to prepare and Bud Foster is a very good DC. I'm worried about that game right now.

IOW, we could win out or we could lose 2-3 more. Our margin of error isn't very big when your defense is porous and you're relying on your offense to win every week.

I agree we could easily lose 1-3 more games. I think our fans shouldn't even think about the playoff, much less expect it. If so, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Winning the Coastal should very much be our goal at this point. Getting a W the next two weeks will take us well on our way toward that goal.

 

[Archer2]

My thoughts exactly, THN11.

 

[ACokeForRoy]

Not sure I agree with these percentages
85.7% vs Ga. Tech
82.6% vs Duke
I see Ga Tech somewhere around 75%. Tech is our achilles heel.
Duke may have recharged there season with winning at ND. It's also there NC game much like NCSteak. I also see that percentage around 72-73%.
As far as winning out, I like our chances. Most people also didn't give a chance in hell to beat FSU. I do believe we need Hood to beat VaTech. If we don't have him it could be another gritty win. 31-27 type of game.

 

[Archer2]

GT always gives us a hard time. Miami is on the road. VT has an extra week to prepare for us. We're NVSU and dook's bowl game. And while we should be favored in all those games, we're not good enough to over look anyone. Bring our B game against any of those teams, or turn the ball over too much, and it could easily result in a loss.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Yeah the Thursday nighter at Duke would scare me a lot more if they had any type of home-field advantage to speak of. Instead, it will be 40% Heels fans at a minimum.

BTW, @ACokeForRoy yes Duke did beat Notre Dame, but then they turned around and lost to Virginia this past weekend lol.

 

[Raising Heel]

As much as I enjoy looking at stats, the FPI is a bit silly. It completely ignores critical elements of X and O matchups. Does anyone here honestly believe we're an 86% lock to beat GT with our porous run defense?

Let's face it. Our passing game has been other-worldly the last two weeks, and it has taken every bit of that effort to win 2 games by a total of 3 points. We have a razor-thin margin of error until the defense starts making critical stops on a regular basis (something I'm not sure we'll see this season).

 

[TarHeelNation11]

As much as I enjoy looking at stats, the FPI is a bit silly. It completely ignores critical elements of X and O matchups. Does anyone here honestly believe we're an 86% lock to beat GT with our porous run defense?

Let's face it. Our passing game has been other-worldly the last two weeks, and it has taken every bit of that effort to win 2 games by a total of 3 points. We have a razor-thin margin of error until the defense starts making critical stops on a regular basis (something I'm not sure we'll see this season).

One thing to note, regarding Georgia Tech: they were moving the ball very well against Miami. They were just killed by the back-to-back fumbles for TDs. It remains to be seen if this is more a byproduct of Miami's D not being great or Tech's offense being really solid, but it's certainly something for Carolina fans to be cautious of.

 

[Raising Heel]

One thing to note, regarding Georgia Tech: they were moving the ball very well against Miami. They were just killed by the back-to-back fumbles for TDs.

Not sure I'd agree that they were moving the ball well, but it's definitely worth noting that the difference in the 35-21 game was the 2 fumble recovery for TDs by Miami. I think Miami is way overhyped right now, although I'll admit their newfound commitment to the running game is a concern.

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

Two skin-of-the-teeth wins and we're speculating about winning out?

I'm as excited as anybody to have those two games in the W column, but wow, they could so, so easily have gone the other way. Would this thread be about losing the rest of the way then?

Game by game, we certainly should be able to compete with each of those teams, but we could just as easily lose almost any of them. VT and Miami are no pushovers, we never seem to do a good job of stopping GT, and state and duke would both LOVE to play the spoiler. Plus, even as terrible as the Hoos are, we have a record of befouling the bed in Charlottesville.

The Heels need to play with razor focus and step up the D to keep the momentum from these two improbable comebacks.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Not sure I'd agree that they were moving the ball well, but it's definitely worth noting that the difference in the 35-21 game was the 2 fumble recovery for TDs by Miami. I think Miami is way overhyped right now, although I'll admit their newfound commitment to the running game is a concern.

I'm not saying it was vintage 2014 GT triple option, but at certain points during the game, the Tech offense was getting 5 yards a clip. They were tough 5-yarders with Miami blowing up the dive and the QB and then Thomas finally pitching it to the outside for 5 or so, but they were 5-yard gains nonetheless.

But then, yes you had plays where Miami just blew up the pay from the start.

 

[Archer2]

Two skin-of-the-teeth wins and we're speculating about winning out?

Game by game, we certainly should be able to compete with each of those teams, but we could just as easily lose almost any of them. VT and Miami are no pushovers, we never seem to do a good job of stopping GT, and state and duke would both LOVE to play the spoiler. Plus, even as terrible as the Hoos are, we have a record of befouling the bed in Charlottesville.

Fans are something else aren't they? As stated above, we've had otherworldly passing games the past two weeks, minimum turnovers, and yet won by a combined 3 points. Granted, we played two pretty good teams but our margin of error is slim due to our swiss cheese defense. All it takes is a 3 TO game on our part, or a human 200 yard passing game on Mitch's part, for us to lose.

 

[uncboy10]

Two skin-of-the-teeth wins and we're speculating about winning out?

I'm as excited as anybody to have those two games in the W column, but wow, they could so, so easily have gone the other way. Would this thread be about losing the rest of the way then?

Game by game, we certainly should be able to compete with each of those teams, but we could just as easily lose almost any of them. VT and Miami are no pushovers, we never seem to do a good job of stopping GT, and state and duke would both LOVE to play the spoiler. Plus, even as terrible as the Hoos are, we have a record of befouling the bed in Charlottesville.

The Heels need to play with razor focus and step up the D to keep the momentum from these two improbable comebacks.

Yeah. I'm speculating about winning out. You know why? Because its fun. I enjoyed the hell out of last year, watching that team come down the stretch with a chance at the playoff. And I plan to enjoy that possibility again this year until something happens to eliminate it. It's a fun discussion to have IMO. Some people enjoy hypotheticals and speculation, some people don't. That's why I made a specific thread to try and keep it in one place.

We could almost just as easily lose to Wake, UVA, Duke and State? Sorry but that's nonsense. OF COURSE we have to show up to play but we are light years better than each and every one of those teams. Fedora has not had an issue with losing to teams that we should beat, so I really don't see any reason not to think we're going to win those games.

If you don't think we can win out then say so. But it's quite obviously a realistic possibility whether you want to talk about it or not.

Fans are something else aren't they? As stated above, we've had otherworldly passing games the past two weeks, minimum turnovers, and yet won by a combined 3 points. Granted, we played two pretty good teams but our margin of error is slim due to our swiss cheese defense. All it takes is a 3 TO game on our part, or a human 200 yard passing game on Mitch's part, for us to lose.

Point taken, but things went far from perfect against FSU. We were two major mistakes away from blowing them out before we let them back in the game. And I seriously doubt that we will have to play at the same level to beat Wake, UVA, Dook, State, ect. as we had to to beat FSU and Pitt. Not saying we can come out and screw around... But it shouldn't take anywhere near a perfect game to beat any of those teams.

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

Wow, salty.

Just pointing out that but for a couple of what basically amount to miracles, we'd be 2-3 with wins over JMU and Illinois. So I'm not quite ready to anoint this team just yet. Losing to any of those teams would be a letdown but I wouldn't call it a "major head scratcher." You're more than welcome to speculate, and last I checked, it's ok for me to suggest maybe we should pump the brakes a little. That's what a discussion board is for, right?

It sure has been fun to watch, and I look forward to hopefully notching another W next week.

No need to get all riled up at little ol' me.

 

[uncboy10]

Absolutely! But yeah, the next two weeks are absolutely pivotal. They will be the proverbial "make or break" of our season. I'm excited!

This could be even bigger than a make or break for a single season. This is a HUGE opportunity for the program. Last year we had an outside chance at the playoff IF we beat Clemson. Which nobody thought we were going to do. But if we win the next two weeks then we become a legit contender for the whole second half of the season (or until we choke). At that point you will hear every pundit in the country having this same discussion as to whether we win out or not, to make the ACCCG a play-in game for the playoff.

We're talking top ten for the last five weeks of the season. How sweet would that be? Gotta think the staff could really use that success on the recruiting trail to sell big time D recruits on the impact they could make.

 

[uncboy10]

Wow, salty.

Just pointing out that but for a couple of what basically amount to miracles, we'd be 2-3 with wins over JMU and Illinois. So I'm not quite ready to anoint this team just yet. You're more than welcome to speculate, and last I checked, it's ok for me to suggest maybe we should pump the brakes a little.

It sure has been fun to watch, and I look forward to hopefully notching another W next week.

No need to get all riled up at little ol' me.

I'm not riled up. I just don't think it's fair to the program to say they could just as easily lose to Wake or UVA as beat them. They've earned more respect than that on the field.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

This could be even bigger than a make or break for a single season. This is a HUGE opportunity for the program. Last year we had an outside chance at the playoff IF we beat Clemson. Which nobody thought we were going to do. But if we win the next two weeks then we become a legit contender for the whole second half of the season (or until we choke). At that point you will hear every pundit in the country having this same discussion as to whether we win out or not, to make the ACCCG a play-in game for the playoff.

We're talking top ten for the last five weeks of the season. How sweet would that be? Gotta think the staff could really use that success on the recruiting trail to sell big time D recruits on the impact they could make.

And not making the playoff is not a failure whatsoever. Just staying in the Top 10 for a sustained number of weeks is huge for this program, the fans' perfection of this program, our recruiting, and everything. It will pull in new fans, which we desperately need.

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

I'm not riled up. I just don't think it's fair to the program to say they could just as easily lose to Wake or UVA as beat them. They've earned more respect than that on the field.

I never said Wake. If we lose to Wake I'll kick @gunslingerdick in the nuts. Do we play Wake?

 

[uncboy10]

And not making the playoff is not a failure whatsoever. Just staying in the Top 10 for a sustained number of weeks is huge for this program, the fans' perfection of this program, our recruiting, and everything. It will pull in new fans, which we desperately need.

Agreed. Even if we do finish the regular season at 11-1, we would still have to get past Clemson. At which point its basically a playoff already. You beat Clemson and you move on to the semis. At least that's the way I would look at it.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Agreed. Even if we do finish the regular season at 11-1, we would still have to get past Clemson. At which point its basically a playoff already. You beat Clemson and you move on to the semis. At least that's the way I would look at it.

One negative would be Louisville would trump us for a NY6 spot. We'd have to earn our way in as an at-large if that's possible? I'm iffy on the non-playoff NY6 rules.

 

[Raising Heel]

Personally, I think any discussion about the Playoffs is crazy talk. I simply want to see this team continue to beat the teams it's supposed to beat and not have any head-scratching letdowns. If we do that, we should win the state championship and contend for the Coastal title again.

 

[uncboy10]

I never said Wake. If we lose to Wake I'll kick @gunslingerdick in the nuts. Do we play Wake?

Technically it's still a possibility lol

Not sure how I worked Wake into the list haha.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Personally, I think any discussion about the Playoffs is crazy talk. I simply want to see this team continue to beat the teams it's supposed to beat and not have any head-scratching letdowns. If we do that, we should win the state championship and contend for the Coastal title again.

Agreed to an extent. I believe the talk is fine, as long as fans don't make that the expectation. For instance, I wasn't one-bit disappointed we didn't make the playoff last year because that wasn't my expectation. As long as fans still support the program (oh..) then the talk of it is fine. People just need to be rational (LOL) and realize UNC isn't a true playoff caliber yet.

 

[uncboy10]

Personally, I think any discussion about the Playoffs is crazy talk. I simply want to see this team continue to beat the teams it's supposed to beat and not have any head-scratching letdowns. If we do that, we should win the state championship and contend for the Coastal title again.

Just out of curiosity, how many games do you think we could lose without having any head scratching letdowns? How many teams on the rest of the schedule do you think could just come out and beat us on a good day?

IMO if the Heels show up to play every week from here on out they could absolutely find themselves one game away from a playoff spot. We're nowhere near good enough to cruise the way that Clemson will, but absolutely good enough to finish the regular season with 11 wins IF the guys show up and play the way they are capable of playing.

I honestly doubt we would beat Clemson even if we got 5 tries, but just playing in a game of that magnitude would be huge for the program

 

[gunslingerdick]

I'll let y'all do all the playoff talking. I just want to beat the Hokies again this year. And after that I'll want to beat Miami again. And so on and so on. If we get to the middle of November without losing again, I'll join in the playoff talking.

 

[uncboy10]

Agreed to an extent. I believe the talk is fine, as long as fans don't make that the expectation. For instance, I wasn't one-bit disappointed we didn't make the playoff last year because that wasn't my expectation. As long as fans still support the program (oh..) then the talk of it is fine. People just need to be rational (LOL) and realize UNC isn't a true playoff caliber yet.

Not sure I agree here though. Expectations are fine, like you said it depends on how you respond to them. Even delusional expectations put assess in the seats. When you look at the powerhouse programs, even when they aren't a contender, their fans think they are. I think the talk about playoffs is what will actually jump start the fan support. People want to support a winner. The student section at basketball games is full of students who don't know a damn thing about the game, but they want to be there because they feel like they're a part of that culture of success.

The basketball program has skewed a lot of people's ideas of success as fans. It may take being a playoff contender that wins 11 or 12 games a year to actually pack Kenan and create a real home field advantage.

 

[Archer2]

Agreed to an extent. I believe the talk is fine, as long as fans don't make that the expectation. For instance, I wasn't one-bit disappointed we didn't make the playoff last year because that wasn't my expectation. As long as fans still support the program (oh..) then the talk of it is fine.

Exactly. We don't get to realistically even think about making the playoffs very often, so I understand fans wanting to do so. It's fun and it therapeutic for a fan base that has been hungry for quality football for most of the last 4 decades, with rare exceptions.

People just need to be rational (LOL) and realize UNC isn't a true playoff caliber yet.

Again, this is the main point. If everything goes our way the rest of the season, and I mean everything, the playoffs is a possibility. But the odds are long at this stage of our program's development. We're taking baby blue steps in the right direction but we haven't progressed to running yet.

I will agree that winning the next two games, jumping up into the Top 10, and staying there for a few weeks, would be wonderful for the team, recruiting, and the program.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

My whole view on the expectations thing is I want asses in the seats. Which we still aren't getting. I don't really give a crap what Heels fans expectations are, I just want them to show up with me at games.

 

[Archer2]

My whole view on the expectations thing is I want asses in the seats. Which we still aren't getting. I don't really give a crap what Heels fans expectations are, I just want them to show up with me at games.

It's going to take continued winning to accomplish that. Build it and they will come.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

It's going to take continued winning to accomplish that. Build it and they will come.

We're winning a shit ton and tickets are stupid cheap on Stubhub every week. No excuse for people not to show up. 15-4 in our last 19 games, 9-0 in our last 9 home games.

edited to add: Welp, based on StubHub, it's gonna be another 10,000 people missing type of game.

 

[Archer2]

Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

[Raising Heel]

Just out of curiosity, how many games do you think we could lose without having any head scratching letdowns? How many teams on the rest of the schedule do you think could just come out and beat us on a good day?

Two for sure: VT and Miami.

GT could give our defense trouble, but I think we can outscore them. UVA and dook are critically flawed teams (although UVA is showing signs of improvement). Moo has been quietly putting up some good offensive numbers and won't be an easy out.

 

[WoadBlue]

Absolutely! But yeah, the next two weeks are absolutely pivotal. They will be the proverbial "make or break" of our season. I'm excited!

More test of character. I expect these Heels to step up the task. They are battlers.

 

[randman1]

We're winning a shit ton and tickets are stupid cheap on Stubhub every week. No excuse for people not to show up. 15-4 in our last 19 games, 9-0 in our last 9 home games.

edited to add: Welp, based on StubHub, it's gonna be another 10,000 people missing type of game.

For those that can, yes we need more fans in the stadium. Wish they would make some changes to the seats, however, and bring back beer please. Let people bring a cooler even, if just a small one. That's good for not just beer but other drinks like water. The Pitt game, we almost went to, was reportedly ridiculously hot.

In hindsight, glad we didn't try to make it. It's a long haul but have also been going through some health issues and probably couldn't have watched in the heat. Might could have scored a Blue Zone situation, however. But it wasn't a good week to travel.

 

[uncboy10]

Two for sure: VT and Miami.

GT could give our defense trouble, but I think we can outscore them. UVA and dook are critically flawed teams (although UVA is showing signs of improvement). Moo has been quietly putting up some good offensive numbers and won't be an easy out.

Sounds like we're pretty close to being on the same page. I do think we're more talented than Va tech and Miami, but anything less than our A game could easily result in a loss.

Ga Tech worries me the most. If you don't tackle well against them it's always going to be a long day.