Will the Heels win out?

[ACokeForRoy]

Yeah the Thursday nighter at Duke would scare me a lot more if they had any type of home-field advantage to speak of. Instead, it will be 40% Heels fans at a minimum.

BTW, @ACokeForRoy yes Duke did beat Notre Dame, but then they turned around and lost to Virginia this past weekend lol.

Did they? Oh well.....

 

[superstar57]

Odds are in UNC favor, but one day you will have to win some games on defensive side.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

For those that can, yes we need more fans in the stadium. Wish they would make some changes to the seats, however, and bring back beer please. Let people bring a cooler even, if just a small one. That's good for not just beer but other drinks like water. The Pitt game, we almost went to, was reportedly ridiculously hot.

In hindsight, glad we didn't try to make it. It's a long haul but have also been going through some health issues and probably couldn't have watched in the heat. Might could have scored a Blue Zone situation, however. But it wasn't a good week to travel.

You're allowed to bring water bottles into the stadium.

 

[ACokeForRoy]

Odds are in UNC favor, but one day you will have to win some games on defensive side.

Right. Can't live off the fat of the offense for long before comes back to bite....For the life of me I can't really pinpoint what is wrong with the D. Is the loss of some players? Current players overhyed? I dunno. Chizik is a hell of a D Coordinator but he's no Houdini.

 

[Archer2]

Sounds like we're pretty close to being on the same page. I do think we're more talented than Va tech and Miami, but anything less than our A game could easily result in a loss.

Ga Tech worries me the most. If you don't tackle well against them it's always going to be a long day.

And we happen to have one of the worst tackling teams in D1 football. And they'll possess the ball for 38-40 minutes.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

And we happen to have one of the worst tackling teams in D1 football. And they'll possess the ball for 38-40 minutes.

True but our offense will score a boatload of points against their very bad pass defense.

 

[Archer2]

True but our offense will score a boatload of points against their very bad pass defense.

Oh, I agree. But relying on the offense is a dangerous proposition. Sooner or later, they're going to have an off night.

 

[Raising Heel]

You're allowed to bring water bottles into the stadium.

*Sealed water bottles, not something like a Nalgene or Camelbak.

Right. Can't live off the fat of the offense for long before comes back to bite....For the life of me I can't really pinpoint what is wrong with the D. Is the loss of some players? Current players overhyed? I dunno. Chizik is a hell of a D Coordinator but he's no Houdini.

Yup. It's unreasonable to expect the offense -- in particular the passing game -- to continue to play at such an efficient level.

As far as what's wrong with the defense, somebody on premium pointed out that we've held every team right around their rushing average for the season. The exception is Georgia, whose running game has dropped off with Chubb dinged up. That made me feel a little better. Basically, our run defense is a problem but it's not as bad as we think it is.

 

[6666Heel]

After beating FSU we've got a pretty good chance of winning out IMO. The biggest test is probably going to be Miami, but VT should be pretty tough as well. After the next two weeks, any loss would be a major head scratcher.

Here's how the FPI rates our chances.

65.2% vs Va. Tech
37.7% vs Miami
85.5% vs Virginia
85.7% vs Ga. Tech
82.6% vs Duke
98.2% vs The Citadel
76.9% vs the wusspeckers

Under the category of FWIW (and that's not much), assuming the above numeric chances are "accurate", our projected chance of "winning out" comes in at approximately 11.2%.

 

[Archer2]

Under the category of FWIW (and that's not much), assuming the above numeric chances are "accurate", our projected chance of "winning out" comes in at approximately 11.2%.

Yep, and I'd say was about right.

 

[lerario]

The next two games are so, so huge. If we can somehow figure out how to stay focused and keep up the intensity, and the defense can make a few more stops, we can win both. If we do that, there is a very good chance we win out. GT could absolutely give us trouble, but their defense is bad and I think we would outscore them even if it turns into a shootout. Dook and UVa just aren't very good. It would take a really awful performance on our part to lose to either of those teams. State is still a question mark at this point, but there is no question that we are the better, more talented team. Their transfer QB has played very well and seems to know the ins and outs of their offense. They have a solid running game and decent DL but not much else after that. They could be inline to take some serious @ss whippings over the next 5 or 6 games so who knows what their mindset will be by the time our game rolls around. Even if they come at us with everything they've got, I don't see us losing that game at home if we have our own goals riding on the outcome.