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Miami vs UNC game thread chapter two on Monday 26 February 2024…

Miami comes in with a record of 15-13 and have lost about 4 in a row and more importantly are really banged up. If Nigel Pack cannot play again the pressure is really on forward Norchad Omier. Although he is only 6’7 Omier is a premier rebounder and can do a ton of damage in the paint as he is averaging 17.1 points per game but if Pack does not play or is about 50 percent Carolina can pack the paint.

Wooga Poplar, Keyshawn George, Michael Nwonko and FSU transfer Matthew Cleveland are all capable scorers but if Pack and Omier have off shooting games Carolina may find themselves in a blow out.

The Tar Heels can not let Miami jump on them like Clemson did when they fell behind big and ended up losing. I do believe the team fully understands what is at stake and will take care of business easily…

OT Court Storming

I watched a couple of replays during the UNC / Miami game tonight of Wake storming the court and the one thing that stood out was that goon flipoffski sticking out his leg in order to trip a Wake fan. Imagine my surprise to see some dook player tripping someone. Guess they weren't happy tripping and flopping other teams players .. now they've sunk to tripping fans. Again not a big surprise. FD

UNC vs Miami Prediction Thread, Monday, February 26, 7PM (Triple Points) ODDS UP

-15.5 UNC
Over/Under 155.5



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Miami Hurricanes​


15-13, 6-11 CONF
Miami Hurricanes
ESPN
2/26
7:00 PM

10

North Carolina Tar Heels​


21-6, 13-3 CONF



Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads


NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider


Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
www.vegasinsider.com


Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium

  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
  • Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic)
  • Oklahoma (Jumpman Invitational)

Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points through first 15 games
Contest #2: Reset: Total points starting game 16 through end of regular season
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated) Top 15 Players in Contest #1 and #2.
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

Bullet points (3) will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the last game of the contest. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

36 pts--Max points, Quadruple points game
27 pts--Max points, Triple points game
18 pts--Max points, Double points game
12 pts--Partial points, Quadruple points game
9 pts--Partial points, Triple points game
6 pts--Partial points, Double points game
3 pts--automatic points for any game missed (you failed to make a prediction) in first 20 games
Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Prizes: Large Flat Screen TV, Laptop or Tablet (winner option)

Contest #1 Prizes

1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Contest #2 Prizes
1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3- month Subscription to Premium

Contest #3 Prizes
1st Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

Flip's Injury

Ok, so i have watched the video several times. Whether you agree with the court storming or not, this is being blown way out of proportion. If you look at the video it looks like big Flip is actually trying to trip the student that is running by him. Just saying, watch the video. It's all about dook!! Ok if the cameron crazies storm the court.....

GO HEELS!!

Stat Dive (part 13): Offensive Rebounding Percentage

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

Offensive rebounding has certainly become a much-discussed statistic in recent years. Unfortunately the NCAA's data doesn't report this stat before 2015, so we only have just under 10 seasons of data to evaluate (3,483 teams). Even with that, though, if we look at the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded by the offense, there is still valuable insight to be had.

MBB_ORPct.png


The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), by year, for the last 10 seasons, through the morning of February 25, 2024. The grey line shows the OR% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the OR% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the figure has held in the low-30% range nationally.

As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1-2 percentage points above the national average.

UNC, shown in blue, had significantly higher OR% than the tournament teams when Roy Williams was the coach, but has fallen to the tournament average level under Hubert Davis.

How important is this statistic? Despite Roy Williams' affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.276, yet its correlation with making the tournament is a handsome 0.547.

This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.

Next up: Opponent Field Goal Percentage
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Quick stuff (UVA game)...

...and we needed that.

I'm writing this on the way back from another game, so I'll keep it short:

- honestly, I was hoping we'd use the off week to direct our offense more vertically than in past years, because you can't make hay around the perimeter vs the Pack Line. We fell into bad habits a few times, but our best production came when we did in fact use angles to attack.

- I've always said it's important to get a lead on these guys. especially up there. Fact is, they don't react well to being behind --- which once again raises the head-scratching early sub pattern question, following which we didn't even score for several minutes. Despite their focus on RJ and doubling the post, we got off to a strong start then poof... (more on that below)

- Fortunately, the Cormac we've been looking for decided to make an appearance. Really efficient moving without the ball and getting in position to square and fire, and it paid off. As I mentioned before, the Pack Line is vulnerable to the wing 3, but you better cash in, and Cormac did.

- BIG defensive minutes by JWash when Mando got phantomed early. I counted 4 blocks to go with his boards.

- Long bench paid off today although some of the combos got a bit scary late in the first half with seemingly everyone having a second foul.

- This was a game when we can be thankful for missed shots, but other than allowing too many garbage buckets in the 2nd, we nonetheless played strong team defense, making them take late-clock difficult 2s, and I'll roll with that any time. Honestly, the only other thing they did that consistently hurt us was Beekman isoing RJ and shooting over him.

- As alluded to above, if you want to understand the importance of having your savant playmaker on the floor, key play in the first half --- they had stymied our called action, ball at the top and they've got the gaps and passing lanes totally covered w/ 3.3 seconds on the shot. You're generally looking at a heave against them. Nope. With zero panic, EC nonetheless breaks down his guy enough to trigger a gap help reaction, setting up Cormac for a rhythm splash. I realize a lotta people won't get it, but folks, that ain't normal.

- And finally, I can't close without mentioning just how embarrassingly bad Jamie Luckie was. I've been told by two different people in recent weeks that he is universally despised as a ref and that he is getting forced out of the league after this season. I sure hope so. Anytime we survive a Luckie game I breathe a sigh of relief...

Anyway, ABOUT DAMN TIME we got one in Charlottesville!!! Make no mistake, that was a big and needed win for us. Gotta get everyone going as our ceiling is still so much higher. Getting Cormac hot was a step in the right direction. Now Eliot, MAKE THOSE OPEN LOOKS and we'll be unguardable. So... got the dreaded short turnaround vs the Canes. Can't have any letdowns in Feb/March!...
:cool:

Stat Review: @UVA (2/24/24)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%32 2
UNC_statBox_0.png

3FG%32 38
UNC_statBox_35.png

2FG%32 2
UNC_statBox_0.png

FT%79 77
UNC_statBox_75.png

fg%28 98
UNC_statBox_95.png

3fg%14 96
UNC_statBox_95.png

2fg%32 94
UNC_statBox_90.png

ft%67 55
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS0.78 13
UNC_statBox_10.png

pts/poss0.62 95
UNC_statBox_95.png

TOTPOSS140 4
UNC_statBox_0.png

POSDIF(2)28
UNC_statBox_25.png

%LOB14 60
UNC_statBox_60.png

%lob8 6
UNC_statBox_0.png

SmithIdx0.062966
UNC_statBox_65.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.07 95
UNC_statBox_95.png

AST/TO1.10 34
UNC_statBox_30.png

OR%0.26 21
UNC_statBox_20.png

or%0.26 41
UNC_statBox_45.png

%FROM344.095
UNC_statBox_90.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
There are games that are barn burners, and then there are games like the UNC@UVA game. What's a good term? Barn ethers? Barn freezers? Torture?

UVA is famous for its slow tempo, and this game didn't disappoint, with 140 possessions. Since 1996 UNC has played in only 35 slower-paced games. It wasn't the pace that was so torturous, though. It was the shooting.

UNC shot 32% from the field overall, something it has only done in 19 of the last 1018 games. It also shot 32% from 2 and from 3. Only 10 times have we seen the team shoot worse from inside the arc. Clearly Cormac Ryan was the player of the game, because outside of him the team was 1-11 from 3.

UVA was inexcplicably worse, shooting 28% overall and 14% from 3. UNC has only seen 17 opponents in the last 1018 shoot worse. The last time we saw worse, by the way, was at NCSU this season.

In a snail's pace game, UNC scored a miserable 0.78 points per possession. UVA managed only 0.62 points per possession. Just shoot me.
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