Ok, so i have watched the video several times. Whether you agree with the court storming or not, this is being blown way out of proportion. If you look at the video it looks like big Flip is actually trying to trip the student that is running by him. Just saying, watch the video. It's all about dook!! Ok if the cameron crazies storm the court.....

GO HEELS!!

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

Offensive rebounding has certainly become a much-discussed statistic in recent years. Unfortunately the NCAA's data doesn't report this stat before 2015, so we only have just under 10 seasons of data to evaluate (3,483 teams). Even with that, though, if we look at the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded by the offense, there is still valuable insight to be had.



The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), by year, for the last 10 seasons, through the morning of February 25, 2024. The grey line shows the OR% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the OR% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the figure has held in the low-30% range nationally.

As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1-2 percentage points above the national average.

UNC, shown in blue, had significantly higher OR% than the tournament teams when Roy Williams was the coach, but has fallen to the tournament average level under Hubert Davis.

How important is this statistic? Despite Roy Williams' affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.276, yet its correlation with making the tournament is a handsome 0.547.

This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.

Next up: Opponent Field Goal Percentage

...and we needed that.

I'm writing this on the way back from another game, so I'll keep it short:

- honestly, I was hoping we'd use the off week to direct our offense more vertically than in past years, because you can't make hay around the perimeter vs the Pack Line. We fell into bad habits a few times, but our best production came when we did in fact use angles to attack.

- I've always said it's important to get a lead on these guys. especially up there. Fact is, they don't react well to being behind --- which once again raises the head-scratching early sub pattern question, following which we didn't even score for several minutes. Despite their focus on RJ and doubling the post, we got off to a strong start then poof... (more on that below)

- Fortunately, the Cormac we've been looking for decided to make an appearance. Really efficient moving without the ball and getting in position to square and fire, and it paid off. As I mentioned before, the Pack Line is vulnerable to the wing 3, but you better cash in, and Cormac did.

- BIG defensive minutes by JWash when Mando got phantomed early. I counted 4 blocks to go with his boards.

- Long bench paid off today although some of the combos got a bit scary late in the first half with seemingly everyone having a second foul.

- This was a game when we can be thankful for missed shots, but other than allowing too many garbage buckets in the 2nd, we nonetheless played strong team defense, making them take late-clock difficult 2s, and I'll roll with that any time. Honestly, the only other thing they did that consistently hurt us was Beekman isoing RJ and shooting over him.

- As alluded to above, if you want to understand the importance of having your savant playmaker on the floor, key play in the first half --- they had stymied our called action, ball at the top and they've got the gaps and passing lanes totally covered w/ 3.3 seconds on the shot. You're generally looking at a heave against them. Nope. With zero panic, EC nonetheless breaks down his guy enough to trigger a gap help reaction, setting up Cormac for a rhythm splash. I realize a lotta people won't get it, but folks, that ain't normal.

- And finally, I can't close without mentioning just how embarrassingly bad Jamie Luckie was. I've been told by two different people in recent weeks that he is universally despised as a ref and that he is getting forced out of the league after this season. I sure hope so. Anytime we survive a Luckie game I breathe a sigh of relief...

Anyway, ABOUT DAMN TIME we got one in Charlottesville!!! Make no mistake, that was a big and needed win for us. Gotta get everyone going as our ceiling is still so much higher. Getting Cormac hot was a step in the right direction. Now Eliot, MAKE THOSE OPEN LOOKS and we'll be unguardable. So... got the dreaded short turnaround vs the Canes. Can't have any letdowns in Feb/March!...

Discussion
There are games that are barn burners, and then there are games like the UNC@UVA game. What's a good term? Barn ethers? Barn freezers? Torture?

UVA is famous for its slow tempo, and this game didn't disappoint, with 140 possessions. Since 1996 UNC has played in only 35 slower-paced games. It wasn't the pace that was so torturous, though. It was the shooting.

UNC shot 32% from the field overall, something it has only done in 19 of the last 1018 games. It also shot 32% from 2 and from 3. Only 10 times have we seen the team shoot worse from inside the arc. Clearly Cormac Ryan was the player of the game, because outside of him the team was 1-11 from 3.

UVA was inexcplicably worse, shooting 28% overall and 14% from 3. UNC has only seen 17 opponents in the last 1018 shoot worse. The last time we saw worse, by the way, was at NCSU this season.

In a snail's pace game, UNC scored a miserable 0.78 points per possession. UVA managed only 0.62 points per possession. Just shoot me.

I am thrilled that Forbes has rebuilt Wake basketball.

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

As you may recall, Dean Smith defined the end of a possession as happening with a turnover, a trip to the free throw line, or the attempt of any field goal. The latter is in stark contrast to the "modern" method, but the result gives us some interesting information. At the end of a game, in Smith's eyes, one team likely had far more possessions than the other. That difference reveals the true rebounding advantage, and it tells the rebounding story more reliably than the raw rebounding stat in the box score.



The graph shows the Possession Differential (POSDIFF), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 24, 2024. The grey line shows the POSDIFF for all of Division I, while the green line shows the POSDIFF for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the figure has held very flat, at just over 0.00 per team. This makes sense given that games were predominantly against each other.

As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about double the national average.

Ignoring the appearance of Batman in the graph, we see that UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher POSDIFF than the tournament teams in most years. This makes sense given the heavy emphasis that Roy Williams placed on Rebounding.

How important is this statistic? Despite Roy Williams' affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.202, and its correlation with making the tournament is a miniscule 0.086.

Looking at this differently, things get more interesting, though. Raw Total Rebounds actually correlates with Winning Percentage in an average way, with a score of 0.473. Raw Opponents' total rebounds, however, has a 0.064 correlation score. The fact that Opponent's Rebounding correlation score is positive, and so much smaller than the team's rebounding score, is something that needs more explanation and research.

Despite the low correlation score, adding POSDIFF to a regression of P/P and p/p does increase the reliability. So, while its contribution to the regression concept is miniscule, POSDIFF isn't a bad statistic, it is probably more if a distraction than it is a key performance indicator.

Next up: Percentage of Missed Shots Rebounded

Congrats to the lady heels for curb stomping the #6 lady peckers last night!

UNC now has 7 Quad 1 wins, and with NC State at No. 77 today in the NET, the Heels will get an 8th Q1 win if the Pack climb two spots to 75th or higher.

CAROLINA 54, VIRGINIA 44
FEBRUARY 24, 2024
JOHN PAUL JONES ARENA
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA.

UNC Scoring Leader: Cormac Ryan (18)
UNC Rebound Leader: Armando Bacot (13)
UNC Assist Leader: Elliot Cadeau (6)
Team Records: Carolina 21-6, 13-3 ACC; Virginia 20-8, 11-6 ACC

• The 54 points are the fewest in any Carolina win since a 54-51 win at Virginia on 2/25/2012.
• Carolina scored 26 points in the first half and 28 in the second. It was the first time UNC scored fewer than 30 points in both halves in a win since the 2012 win at Virginia.
• UNC had lost the previous five times it scored fewer than 60 points.
• Cormac Ryan led UNC with 18 points, the first time this season he led UNC in scoring.
• Ryan made a season-high six three-pointers, most by a Tar Heel since Caleb Love made six vs. Clemson last season.

• Ryan made five threes in the first half (one more than his previous season high, which he had done four times, including each of the last two games).
• Ryan is the first Tar Heel to make five 3FGs in a half since Love made five in the second half vs. UCLA in the 2022 NCAA Sweet 16 in Philadelphia.
• Ryan scored 15 of UNC’s 26 first-half points. It was the first time a Tar Heel outscored the rest of the UNC team in a half since 12/2/23 when RJ Davis did that in the second half vs. UConn.
• Ryan’s 18 points matched his season high in an ACC game (two games ago at Syracuse).
• Ryan has made 24 threes in the last eight games.

• Armando Bacot grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds. It was his sixth straight double-double, the 14th of the season and 82nd of his career. UNC is 11-3 this season and 59-23 when he has a double-double.
• Harrison Ingram had 10 rebounds, the 11th time in 15 games he had double-figure rebounds.
• RJ Davis made a season-low one field goal (a three in the second half). The first half was the first in which Davis didn’t score in a half this season.
• Davis’ UNC-record streak making multiple threes ended at 23 (eight more games than the previous record). He has made at least one three in all 27 games.
• Davis scored in double figures for the 24th straight game.

• Davis has 1,870 career points. He passed Walter Davis (1,863) for 11th in UNC history.
• Elliot Cadeau had a game-high six assists, one more than Virginia had as a team. It was the 11th time this season he had five or more.
• Jalen Washington blocked a career-high four shots. His previous high was two; he had all four in the first half.
• Carolina’s 16 field goals were its fewest since it made 16 against Boston College on 1/26/2022 in a home win.
• Carolina held UVA to 16.7% from the floor in the first half, lowest by an opponent since Bostion College shot 16.7% in Chestnut Hill in the first half on 1/2/22.

• Virginia’s 16 first-half points were the fewest UNC has allowed in a half since the Cavaliers scored 13 in the first half in the 2022 ACC quarterfinal in Brooklyn.
• Carolina’s 26 points in the first half were its fewest in any half this season. The 54 points were the fewest in a game this season (previous low was 65 at Clemson).
• Virginia’s 44 points were the fewest UNC has allowed since UVA’s 43 on 3/10/2022 in Brooklyn.
• Carolina blocked a season-high 10 shots, the most since the Tar Heels had 10 in a four-OT loss to Alabama last season.
• Virginia’s 16 field goals were the fewest by an opponent since UVA had 16 on 12/8/2019 in a Cavalier win in Charlottesville.

UNC-Virginia
• The Tar Heels lead the series, 135-62.
• Carolina is 45-38 in Charlottesville. The win snapped an eight-game win streak by the Cavaliers in John Paul Jones Arena (from 2013-23).
• The eight straight games were the most consecutive losses for Carolina at any one arena or at any opponent’s home court. The previous high was seven at Duke from 1951-56 (played twice at Duke in the 1951-52 season).
• UNC is 5-8 in John Paul Jones Arena, winning in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012. UNC’s most recent win in Charlottesville came on 2/25/2012.

Next Game: vs. Miami, Monday, Feb. 26 (7 p.m., ESPN)