4. UNC running back Omarion Hampton quietly finished 2023 ranked fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game (115.7) and with 1,504 yards over 253 carries. He reached paydirt 15 times and also caught 29 passes for 222 yards. Hampton rushed for 234 yards in a victory against Appalachian State and also posted a string of six 100-yard efforts. (Athlon Sports)

I thought North Carolina fell into Alabama's trap. The game got too fast, and that was Nate Oats' only shot. They looked great in the first half, but there was some fool's gold to it with Cadeau and Trimble making three's. I have beaten this stat like a go rented mule. UNC is now 7-8 when giving up over 70 points, and 3-5 when allowing more than 80. I would have liked to have seen more possessions that went deep into the clock going through Bacot on the block.

The lineups were kind of weird as well. That is the most I remember Wojcik being involved. He played one more minute that Cadeau (14-13). It seemed like Coach Davis pulled the plug on him really early. I understand they are playing off him. That's why I would have liked to have seen more sets like all of the slice cut action where that doesn't come into play. They just didn't run much of their normal stuff tonight. If they don't guard Cadeau or Trimble use them as screeners, especially ball-screeners. If their guy plays off then R.J. Davis and Ryan can turn the corner into their mid-range game. I would have also put the gimpy Pringle in ball-screens every possession down the stretch.

This isn't a knock on Hubert Davis. I still believe he is a very good coach. But it got away from them tonight.

The 2024 team was outstanding, offensively, and nearly ranks as the best offensive team in the UNC program's history. Averaging 0.986 points per possession (Smith Method), it was well above the program average of 0.93. Here is how this team ranks since the advent of the 3-point shot:

1. 1987 (1.011)
2. 1995 (1.010)
3. 1998 (1.005)
4. 2009 (0.997)
5. 2016 (0.989)
6. 2005 (0.987)
7. 2024 (0.986)
8. 2007 (0.981)
9. 2008 (0.975)
10. 1996 (0.970)

How did this team do it? Their 3-point shooting (35.8%) was right at the program average since 1996 (35.7%). The two-point shooting (50.1%) was a percent below average (51.1%). The real differences were that the team was far below on Percent Loss of Ball (12.1%) than the program average (16.0%). As well, they did really well at the free throw line (76%), compared to the program's average (70%). For the second season in a row, they frequented the line much more frequently than average with 0.274 FTAs/possession. That's about 1 standard deviation above the program average of 0.259.

This team continued to feast on the 3-point line. It took 36.1% of its shot attempts from behind the line, as opposed to the program average of 28.5%. On possessions where they took a 3-point shot, they scored 1.08 points per possession whereas possessions ending with a shot attempt inside the arc resulted in only 1.00 points per possession. If the powers that be over there are paying attention, we will greatly increase the number of 3s attempted next season, because the return from behind the arc was 8% higher than it was shooting inside the arc; with the program's 2nd all-time leading scorer, Armando Bacot, down low. (granted he played in 169 games, but he still was a reliable force down low).



As the graph shows, this team scored above Dean Smith's offensive goal much of the time, and there wasn't a detectable trend upward or downward the the offense's performance. They ended the season strong, with consistent excellent offense for the entire final month. There was a lull just after the Charleston Southern game which coincided with the lull in opponents' performances. That was when the media assigned the reputation of it being a defensive team, but in fact, this team's accomplishments came from its offense and from rebounding.

This program will lose quite a few players again this season, so like we did this season, we will have to wait until around mid December before we really know what Coach Davis has assembled. Because all of his teams have scored points per possession considerably higher than the historic average, I am confident that offense will likely not be a huge concern with next year's team.

In January this team got a reputation, nationally, of being a defensive stalwart. In fact it ended the season being the 8th highest-ranked defense at KenPom. However if we look at this season overall, we see that that stretch of January is really the only period where they were outstanding defensively. The opponents in that stretch were Oklahoma, Charleston Southern, Pitt, Clemson, and NCSU. The latter 3 ended up playing well in mid-March, but their state in mid-January was a very different story.



Dean Smith's defensive goal was to keep teams below 0.85 points per possession. That line is shown in gray, and we want the red points per possession allowed line to be below it. After that period of January (where the reputation was made), UNC significantly met Dean Smith's goal only 2 more times. It even allowed 7 of its last 16 opponents to play around the 1.00 points per possession level.

Historically this was the 6th worst defense in program history. Only 2018, 2023, 2020, 2022, and 2002 allowed more points per possession (to the right on the chart below). Despite the national rise in points per possession that I outlined in the Stat Dive series, this team spent most of the season hovering around the 1988 (Elite Eight), 1996 (Round of 32), and 1999 (Sweet 16) teams, so it is not surprising at all to see this team get clipped at the Sweet 16 mark. Their profile showed us this virtually the entire season. In the last month of the season, this team made a significant move to the right on this chart, representing a fall in defensive intensity.



Defensive inconsistency is ultimately what did this team in, as it did with Hubert Davis' previous 2 teams. With the large personnel change coming in the offseason, it will be interesting to see if this was a player or a coach problem.

Happy Easter, THR. He is risen!

Rich football schools are going to buy up all the best basketball coaches. Basketball is impotent before football, meaning football schools will own basketball over basketball schools.

Even though I am disappointed, I feel blessed to have these kids represent UNC and play their hearts out. I was hoping to see some rewards for this group. Thank you, Armando Bacot, Cormac Ryan, Paxson Wojick, Jaelyn Withers and all the seniors for sticking through it all. Everyone else thank you for the ride this year. Use this as fuel to stoke the fire!! Go Heels!!! I may have left someone out, I am sorry. God Bless and Go Heels!!!

Why play Pax because he can maybe hit a 3–at least play Seth who is much better defender, and hit a couple and very invested to win guys. Withers, what a terrible shot selection on that 3, and why was he in the game. Good season but a horrible finish and that’s the truth. Out coached and out played period, but we did piss ourselves late with wrong players in the game, Hubert. RJ, love you..Go get some good portals again. See you guys next year. Go Heels.

The Bob Knight of this generation, except the late coach could actually COACH.
And some of the experts around here thought he should be on our short list of coaches after RW.
"O where are they now"😔 @gary-7

-2.5 Alabama
Over/Under 164.5


6

Clemson Tigers​

24-11

TBS
3/30
8:49 PM

4

Alabama Crimson Tide​

24-11




NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads

NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider​

Wojcik +9
Cadeau -10
Trimble -7


So everyone can stop with the "why did Wojcik play so much over Cadeau and Trimble" nonsense. In last night's game we were simply better with Wojcik on the floor.

...and that was totally self-inflicted.

Apologies for the lag, but with nerves raw (mine included), I wanted to wait a bit. With that said, this will be very short and with only a couple of polnts of analysis. Some may not like it, but this is my take. Here goes:

- first, I've watched bama more times than I cared to this season and TBH, they shouldn't have made it past the first damn weekend. They can't defend the post without doubling (even when they have 2 Bigs in), they play out of control, and as much as they like to run, IF YOU SPEED THEM UP they won't defend at all. In other words, bama is a team you OUTSCORE, and if you're good enough to push tempo, they'll make that pretty easy to accomplish.

- The only danger is that they will shoot 3s any time and then crash the boards. We did NOT do a good job of boxing out and that hurt a LOT.
,
- Sears is most effective driving. OK, it was an interesting move putting Ryan on him and it worked... for a while --- until it didn't. In the 2nd half they just used their illegal screens like football pulling guards to escort him to the block, which nullified Ryan's size. We SHOULD have adjusted back --- our little guys were in no foul trouble and they would've been quicker and better at beating the screener.

- We also should have matched their 2 Bigs sooner in the second half, or better, kept feeding the post to foul one out.

OK, enough of that...
- The deciding issue was our entire 2nd half approach. Folks, when an opponent has a length advantage, that is ONLY an advantage in the HALF COURT. You negate that by RUNNING. Sure, they like to run, but WE RUN BETTER. We hung 54 on them running and playing at optimum tempo in the first half. Hell, it's not an exaggeration that a good team that can push tempo can put up a buck-ten on bama on any given night. YET... we inexplicably turned it into a half-court game. Y'all know I love Hubert and the staff, but sorry guys, that was a really bad move.

- To make that point further, I think most of y'all know that I track "transition points" as Fast Break + Secondary Break (which BTW includes the iterations within the Secondary before shifting into a called play or Freelance).
Folks --- we scored zero ---- Z E R O --- transition points in the 2nd half.
I have literally NEVER had that before on my note sheet.

- Bottom line? We'd work our asses off to get a basket and they'd run down and shoot a 3 whenever they could --- and they made enough to make the difference. Moreover, when we played half-court, it allowed their length to compensate for their unsound defense.

Finally... I said it before --- there would come a night when a (yet another) missed dunk would cost us dearly, or when RJ having to play hero-ball couldn't bail us out of a game we'd allowed to be too close for comfort. Well, it happened at the worst time --- in the Dance. BUT... that's not a knock on any player who's busting their ass out there --- no, letting this game come down to that was a strategic mistake, IMO.

Look, I take NO satisfaction from saying I told you so, but for much of this season I have been a broken record about the dangers of takng our foot off the gas, i.e., playing NOT TO LOSE. Welp, this time we did it for an ENTIRE HALF, and it kept a team (that we are WAY better than) in the game just enough to let it slip away --- all the while the only PG on the team, the guy who drives our transition game and tempo, spends the last 16 minutes on the bench.

Anyway. I know we all absolutely HATE that it is ending too soon, and losing to a garbage program just makes it worse. I only know that (if I can still make myself care) I will be the biggest Clemson fan on the planet Saturday...

So --- that's it for the season.
We were blessed with a great combination of guys who genuinely like and respect each other, a staff that reinstated Carolina culture, and warriors like RJ and Mando putting their notches in the record books. And for much of this season, especially when the Ferrari was cranked up. this team has been a PLEASURE to watch. At this point, until next season I just hope I keep waking up with the driver still on board...

link

Quote most applicable to current UNC situation.

"When Saban was nearing a decision about whether to retire, he spoke with Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells, who has a house in the same area of Jupiter Island. Parcells is in the thoroughbred racing business and cautioned Saban not to fall into the same trap as some of the jockeys he's seen who keep riding into and beyond their 50s because it's in their blood and they just can't give it up.

"It's a hazardous occupation, and I'm talking about screws just holding those guys' chests together, and they're still taking every mount they can get. There's no way they're ever going to quit," Saban said, relaying his conversation with Parcells. "Coaches are like that, too, because as a coach, you think you've got to keep coaching, you've got to keep teaching, that you can't do without it.

"But Parcells' analogy was a good one for me, because you step back and realize that you can."