Patruck Stevens has covered the ACC and college basketball for nearly three decades. Stuff like this is in his wheelhouse. So, here is a threat he posted this morning on Twitter/X breaking down the tiebreaker scenarios in case Duke and UNC end up tied atop the ACC. Of course, UNC can end all discussion by winning Saturday. But in case it doesn't, here are the scenarios:


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CAROLINA 84, DUKE 79
MARCH 9, 2024
CAMERON INDOOR STADIUM
DURHAM, N.C.

UNC Scoring Leader: Cormac Ryan career-high 31
UNC Rebound Leader: Harrison Ingram 10
UNC Assist Leader: Armando Bacot and RJ Davis 3
Team Records: Carolina 25-6, 17-3 ACC; Duke 25-6, 15-5 ACC

• Carolina wins the ACC outright for the 22nd time (plus 11 seasons sharing the title for 33 total regular-season championships).
• This is Carolina’s first ACC title since sharing with Virginia in 2018-19 and first outright since 2016-17.
• It was Carolina’s 17th ACC win, which tied the ACC record for regular-season wins (Virginia was 17-1 in 2018-19).
• In the last 20 years, Carolina has played Duke nine times in the regular-season finale when the Tar Heels needed a victory to finish first (outright or a share) and UNC has won all nine games.
• In 2005, UNC beat Duke to finish one game ahead of Wake Forest; In 2007 and 2019, UNC won to tie Virginia for first; in 2008, 2011 and 2012, UNC won to edge Duke by a game; in 2009 and now 2024, UNC won to finish two games ahead of Duke; and in 2016, UNC won to beat Virginia by a game.

• The last time UNC won a game when neither Armando Bacot nor RJ Davis scored in double figures was 11/9/2021 vs. Loyola Maryland, Hubert Davis’ first game as head coach (tonight was the first game neither scored in double figures since a 76-67 loss to Pittsburgh on 2/16/2022).
• UNC won its 25th game. It is the 40th 25-win season in Carolina history.
• The Tar Heels have won six in a row.
• Carolina led for 39:43 and did not trail in the game. It is the most UNC has led in any game this season (previous was 39:11 vs. Tennessee).

• UNC trailed Duke for a combined 16 seconds in the two regular-season games.
• Carolina went 8-2 on the road in the ACC. It is UNC’s most road wins since going 9-0 in 2018-19.
• Carolina led by as many as 15 points three times in the first half (21-6, 27-12 and 30-15).
• It was the 18th time in the 20 ACC games this season the Tar Heels had a double-digit lead.
• UNC outrebounded the Blue Devils, 39-28. It was the 20th consecutive game UNC outrebounded its opponent (17-3 in those games).

• Carolina shot 50% from the floor in both halves and for the game. It was the first time UNC shot 50% in both halves since Charleston Southern on Dec. 29. It is the third time this season (also Radford in the season opener) and the only time in ACC play UNC shot 50% from the floor in both halves.
• Carolina is 6-0 this year and 21-0 under Hubert Davis when it shoots 50% from the floor for the game.
• Carolina has won 29 in a row when it shoots 50% from the floor.
• Cormac Ryan scored a career-high 31 points. His previous high was 29 while playing for Notre Dame against Alabama on 3/18/2022 in the NCAA Tournament. His previous high as a Tar Heel this season was 20 against Kentucky.

• Ryan’s 31 points were the most by a Tar Heel against Duke since Antawn Jamison scored 35 in Chapel Hill in 2/5/1998.
• Ryan’s 31 points were the most by a Tar Heel at Duke since Hubert Davis scored 35 on 3/8/1992.
• Ryan made six three-pointers, most by a Tar Heel since Brady Manek made six on 2/5/2022 in Chapel Hill.
• Ryan tied the UNC record for three-pointers against Duke (six by Ryan, Manek, Kenny Williams in 2018 in Chapel Hill and Davis in 1992).
• It was the most threes by a Tar Heel at Duke since Hubert Davis hit six in 1992.

• Ryan was 8 for 12 from the floor, 6 for 8 from three and 9 of 10 from the free throw line.
• The nine free throws are the most Ryan ever made in a game (eight vs. Virginia Tech on 3/10/22).
• Ryan is the seventh Tar Heel to score 30 or more at Duke, joining Lennie Rosenbluth (40 points on 3/1/57), Doug Moe (32 on 2/6/59), Billy Cunningham (31 on 2//23/63), Michael Jordan (32 on 3/5/83), Hubert Davis (35 on 3/8/92) and Luke Maye (30 on 2/20/19).
• Harrison Ingram had 14 points and 10 rebounds. It was his 11th double-double of the season (UNC is 10-1 in those games) and 16th career.
• It was the 14th time in the last 19 games Ingram had 10 or more rebounds.
• RJ Davis had nine points and three assists. It was the first time in 28 games and only the second time this season he didn’t score in double figures (eight vs. UNC Riverside on Nov. 17).
• Davis made a three-pointer, the 36th straight game with a three (third-longest streak in UNC history).
• Armando Bacot had nine points and eight rebounds. Bacot led UNC with a team-high and game-high plus 12.

UNC-Duke
• Carolina is 145-117 all-time against Duke.
• The Tar Heels have won six of the last nine games.
• The Tar Heels are 51-56 on the road, including 40-47 in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
• This was the 50th meeting when UNC and Duke are both ranked in the AP top 10. Carolina is 26-24 in those games. No other teams have played that many times as top-10 opponents.
• This was the first time UNC both regular-season games vs. Duke since 2021.

Next Game
• Thursday, March 14, ACC Tournament quarterfinal vs. either Virginia Tech or Florida State in Washington, D.C., at Noon.

Yes sir!

Great note here:

In the last 20 years, Carolina has played Duke eight times in the regular-season finale when the Tar Heels needed a victory to finish first (outright or a share) and have won all eight games.

In 2005, UNC beat Duke to finish one game ahead of Wake Forest;

In 2007 and 2019, UNC won to tie Virginia for first;

in 2008, 2011 and 2012, UNC won to edge Duke by a game;

in 2009, UNC won to finish two games ahead of Duke;

and in 2016, UNC won to beat Virginia by a game.

Thanks for contributing to my great sports day ! And how in the hell did they not give your guy a 3 on the review? That looked like some SEC refereeing crap right there !

ODDS
-4.5 Duke
Over/Under 152.5


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7

North Carolina Tar Heels​

24-6, 16-3 CONF

ESPN
3/9
6:30 PM

9

Duke Blue Devils​

24-6, 15-4 CONF






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NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads

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Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
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Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium

• Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
• Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
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Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points through first 15 games
Contest #2: Reset: Total points starting game 16 through end of regular season
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated) Top 15 Players in Contest #1 and #2.
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

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A year after signing him to a two-year extension, the Pittsburgh Steelers released quarterback Mitch Trubisky on Monday. With Trubisky's departure, Kenny Pickett is currently the only quarterback on the Steelers' roster for 2024. Trubisky, 29, was set to count more than $7 million against the Steelers' cap in 2024 and more than $8 million in 2025. (ESPN.com)

The rising junior is moving up the recruiting charts.
Excellent mid-range, tight handle, and always in attack mode.
And his body already looks like a young Theo Pinson.
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Prediction Contest Results Through Notre Dame (Contest #2)
Check your results!
1 more game for the Win!

Top 15 advance to Grand Prize Contest

Prediction Contest Results Through Notre Dame (Contest #2)
Check your results!
1 more game for the Win!

Top 15 advance to Grand Prize Contest

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

In Part 23 I discussed how PPS and PPM could be used to predict Winning Percentage. The Measure of Fit (R-squared) figures for those equations were outstanding, 0.98 and higher. Predicting tournament success in a one-and-done tournament is a much riskier game, however.

In order to compare methods, all of the stats since 2002 were used to create multiple regression analyses to estimate the round number reached for each of the 1,401 tournament teams in the period. (Because offensive rebounding figures have only been available from the NCAA since 2015, PPMDIF was calculated using 543 tournament teams.)

Here are the resulting regressions {R-Squared}:

1. TR = 18.84511 * PPSDIF Rsqr=0.692
2. TR = 13.3857 * PPMDIF Rsqr=0.720
3. TR = (13.32646 * PPMDIF) + (0.022699 * KPSOS) Rsqr=0.724
4. TR = (0.118572 * KPEm) + (0.01895 * KPSOS) Rsqr=0.771

TR = Tournament Round Reached (Round of 64=1, National Champion = 7)
PPSDIF = Smith Points Per Possession Differential
PPSDIF = Modern Points Per Possession Differential
KPEm = KenPom Efficiency Margin
KPSOS = KenPom Strength of Schedule (NCSOSAdjEm)

First of all, this is for entertainment purposes only. Second of all, these R-squares have a lot of error. When you are below 0.800, you have to be really careful!

That said, it appears that while Smith's Points Per Possession figure alone is the best for predicting Winning Percentage, it pales to using the Modern method or KenPom data. The fourth equation, with its highest R-squared, is the best combination of stats I have found so far, for predicting tournament success. You can combine the current KenPom ratings with this equation, but the results are pretty much the same order. Therefore filling out a bracket straight with KenPom ratings is probably better than going with straight chalk. (Don't ask me for advice on filling out brackets. I get worse at it every year, it seems.)

Next up: Points Per Possession against Winning Percentage (Smith vs. Modern)

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

Certainly the most well-known performance indicators out there are those published by Ken Pomeroy. On the kenpom main page, which is free, he lists the following 9 performance indicators:


The third column shows the stat's correlation with Winning Percentage in 3,483 team seasons since the 2015 season, inclusive (138,833 games). The closer a stat is to 0.0, the more insignificant it is.

One key takeaway is that AdjEM is an excellent stat, one the best indicators of Winning Percentage of all of the stats I've tested. The key is the strength of the offensive metric, AdjO. The other takeaway is that the other stats in that table are extremely poor at helping estimate winning percentage, so ignore those.

While AdjO is excellent and readily available, I also considered Points Per Possession (Smith Method), and found a correlation of 0.909 with this group of teams. So while PPP (Smith) needed its rebounding stat to help estimate Margin of Victory as well as PPP (Modern), it appears to be significantly more helpful at estimating Winning Percentage than even Kenpom's AdjEM stat is.

Next up: Predicting Tournament Success

Next up...
Go Heels!

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