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UNC vs UConn Prediction Thread, Tuesday, December 5, 2023, 9:00pm (ODDS UP)

ODDS
-4.5 UConn
Over/Under 153.5




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17

North Carolina Tar Heels

7-1
North Carolina Tar Heels
ESPN
12/5
9:00 PM
UConn

4

UConn Huskies

7-1


Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads



Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium
  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
  • Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic)
  • Oklahoma (Jumpman Invitational)

Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points for entire season
Contest #2: Reset: Total points after game #15
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

For the first 20 games, three (3) Bullet points will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the 20th game of the season. In this case, he will still get 60 points for the first 20 games that he failed to make a prediction for. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

27 pts--Max points, Triple points game
18 pts--Double points game
9 pts--Partial points, Triple points game
6 pts--Partial points, Double points game
3 pts--automatic points for any game missed (you failed to make a prediction) in first 20 games
Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Prizes: Large Flat Screen TV, Laptop or Tablet (winner option)

Contest #1 Prizes

1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Contest #2 Prizes
1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3- month Subscription to Premium

Contest #3 Prizes
1st Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

Quick stuff (FSU game)...

...and here comes Carolina.

I didn't have sound, so yeah, I had to wonder if Wes used his dad's comeback catch-phrase? ;)
But yeah, that was a Carolina classic.

- was afraid we might have a let-down between TN and UConn, and boy, did we.,. everybody not named Cadeau or Bacot looked like they were running thru syrup...;. we weren't stepping into shots with confdence, got out-scrapped for loose balls and our 3-point defense was non-existent.

- granted, you could usually leave those guys in a gym by themselves and they couldn't shoot like that, but we gave too little reisstance in the first half, and meanwhile, we couldn't hit crap from deep

- all this while Roger's crew allowed a first half of FSU mugging, undercutting, phony head-snapping and cheap shots, and we didn't finish thru contact.

- BUT... as I've said over and over, yer gonna have those days, and the key to being a championship team is how you react

- So.,.. three things turned this one around at the half, even though we still clunked 3s:
1. Looked like Hubert's exasperated lobbying finally took on the zebras, as they actually started calling the mayhem
2. We started finishing better, and
3. MOST OF ALL, we hit em with Carolina Scrambles

- Look, I watched these guys blow a 17-pt lead at home to friggin UGA. They do NOT like to be pressed and I was yelling for it. Welp. Hubert delivered and we 44ed em into a 21-0 run and grabbed back control.

- on that note, their length gave us trouble, not so much at the Guard spots as the Forward spots, and as I've said, being multiple and speeding opponents up is the best way I know to mitigate that

- FT shooting continues to be a key, plus having your Big knocking them down is huge.

- on the concern side. Withers still looks lost ---- let's hope he snaps out of that --- and Cormac is visbly still not himself, having trouble with footwork on both ends. We need him healed up. Fortunately, Seth really stepped up, playing his perfect role as a defender and slasher.

- BTW ---> EC +16, Mando +15, Seth +24 (did his best work during that big run)

- RJ continues to thrive the more he plays off the ball. Little guy had 27 and some key shots and takes, but was net (-) with Cadeau out of the game

- Finally, I hope ya'll appreciated that EC steal-and-dime in one motion with his left hand... just ridiculous IQ-on-the-fly. That's just not normal, folks... :oops:

Anyway, we scroed 49 in the second half vs another strong defensive team... big comeback and an important ACC opener win. I'll take it. Let's come with out best from the tip at what will be a de facto home game for UConn... :cool:

How The Players That Left UNC Are Doing So Far

I was interested to see how the players that transferred out of UNC were doing so far this season, so I looked them up. I thought some of you might also be interested so here are some basic stat and notes. Stats are all per game and the parentheses are what they averaged during their last season at UNC.

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Puff Johnson - Penn State - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/puff-johnson-1.html
Points (vs. last season)ReboundsAssistsBlocksStealsTurnoversOffensive RatingDefensive Rating
7.2 (last season 4.1)2.4 (2.7)0 (0.4)0.2 (0)0.6 (0.6)0 (0.3)132.8 (113.3)102.3 (103)

Puff isn't starting but is getting 21 minutes per game. Seeing a slight increase in production, but not a ton. Offensive rating is well above any of his years at UNC, but his defensive rating is on par with the rest of his collegiate years.

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D'Marco Dunn - Penn State - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/dmarco-dunn-1.html
5.6 (2.7)1.7 (0.7)0.4 (0.2)0 (0.2)0.3 (0.3)0.6 (0.2)103.3 (109.6)101.7 (105.1)

Dunn started 1 game but is only averaging 15mpg. Not blowing any stats out of the water and both his offensive and defensive rating are about what they've always been.

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Caleb Love - Arizona - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/caleb-love-1.html
13.2 (16.7)4.2 (3.7)4.7 (2.8)0.3 (0.2)1.3 (1.1)1.8 (2.4)117.9 (100.4)86.9 (104.2)

Caleb is off to a great start at Arizona. The change of scenery so far is doing him well. PPG is down, but he's on a more balanced roster. 3-point % is at his lowest of 27%, but every other category is improved from previous years. Assists are way up and turnovers down. Despite his lower 3%, he's shooting a career-high 53% from 2-point range, which is well above his previous best season. Offensive Rating is 117.9 (previous high was 103.3). Defensive Rating is 86.9 (previous best was 100.9). As a result, his box +/- is at a career best of 7.8 (previous best year was 3.4).

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Dontrez Styles - Georgetown - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/dontrez-styles-1.html
17.8 (1.4)7.2 (0.9)1 (0.1)1 (0.1)0.2 (0.1)1.2 (0.3)130.2 (92.7)105.9 (105.4)

Obviously, scoring has been a massive jump. Styles is starting and is shooting 58% from 2-point range and a shocking 40% from 3 (averaging 5 attempts/game). This has been against extremely weak competition, however so we'll see how these numbers hold up over the season. His Offensive Rating of 130.2 is really impressive, but the devil is in the details. His Defensive Rating is on par with the rest of his career. Given the weak early competition, you'd like to see that number be much lower. It was often assumed that was what kept him off the floor while at UNC, and these early numbers seem to support that assumption.

UNC vs UConn - Tale of the Tape

UNC's double-digit-minute players listed in order of average minutes played. I threw in Washington, too - he needs to play double-digit minutes, imo. (Different sites list different heights and weights.)

PlayerMPGHtWgtTS%PtsRbsAsts
RJ33.56'018057.620.43.12.9
Harrison32.36'723557.914.56.82.3
Armando28.56'1124061.416.311.81.0
Cormac28.46'519551.411.03.32.0
Elliot23.46'118048.57.11.64.0
Seth15.56'319565.15.61.50.6
Withers15.06'921554.23.63.30.5
Paxson13.96'519550.52.80.90.8
Washington9.46'1023085.55.32.90.1
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