Will announce his college destination on Wednesday.
Any reason to think this isn't good news for Blue Heaven?💙🤍

2024 Offers/ 3 Commitment (9 offers)

Jarin Stevenson OFFERED 10/4/2021
Ian Jackson OFFERED 6/17/2022
Tre Johnson OFFERED 6/19/2022
James Brown OFFERED 6/29/2022 (Official visit 10/6/2022) Committed 1/2/2023
Drake Powell OFFERED 6/29/2022(Official visit 8/23/2022) Committed 9/8/2022
Eliot Cadeau OFFERED 7/25/2022 (Official visit 10/6/2022) Committed 12/28/2022
Johnuel "Boogie" Fland OFFERED 8/02/2022 (Official visit 10/28 2022)
Trentyn Flowers OFFERED 9/05/2022


Cam Scott OFFER withdrawn

For Christmas, I got a copy of 100 Things North Carolina Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die by Art Chansky. Good book. Highly recommend it.

In the chapter on the 1993 Championship game, it says the following: "Carolina led 42-36 at the half but found itself in a one-possession game within the last minute of play. A few minutes earlier, Smith had daringly emptied his bench to rest his five starters for the home stretch. It worked as the Tar Heels clung to their lead and won after a tired and trapped Chris Webber called a timeout that Michigan did not have. Critics called Carolina lucky that Webber called the ill-fated TO with his team trailing by only two points, but it was Smith's rested defense that had forced Webber into the corner where he picked up his dribble, panicked, and called timeout right in front of his own bench."

I don't have any connections in Chapel Hill anymore. But could someone slip a copy of the book in Coach Davis' inbox, highlighting this section on page 11-12?

When a nine point lead starts slipping away because your players are missing free throws, missing easy layups right below the basket, missing wide open three pointers--all due to fatigue, it's a wise decision to send in some subs to spell your starters. The subs might not contribute a whole lot of offense (but you never know until you let them hit the floor), but you end up with fresh starters on the floor in the last, critical two minutes of the game. Just saying....

Once upon a time I did an iPhone app showing the UNC 2-deep depth chart. One of the app's features was the designation of recruiting studs from players weren't. My "stud" criteria was a bit arbitrary; Top 10 in NC or equivalent in another state. (I have an elaborate definition of what "equivalent" means, but it is essentially 4 and 5-stars).

Since 2016 I've researched 37 teams' 2-deeps, calculated percentages of studs on those 2-deeps, and calculated the average academic classes for the 2-deeps. I combined those figures, as well as the coach's all-time record, into a multiple regression analysis to estimate winning percentage and found some interesting conclusions.

Correlation Factors​

(0.0=none, 1.0=absolute)

• Overall Experience (-0.04) - Experience has very little impact on the Win/Loss record; if any, it is negative.
• Offensive Experience (-0.019) - Almost no correlation
• Defensive Experience (-0.103) - This is significant, and negatively correlated. Remember that when people praise defensive experience.
• Overall Stud Factor (0.491) - It's about the Jimmys and Joes. Recruiting matters
• Offensive Stud Factor (0.405) - Offense matters, but ...
• Defensive Stud Factor (0.543) - Defensive studs are the most important player-related factor leading to the Win/Loss record.
• Coach's Overall W/L Record (0.459) - Coaching matters. Of the coaches in this small study, those who didn't win more than 60% of their career games didn't stick around long. Records ranged from 0.329 (Derek Mason as of 2016) to 0.803 (Nick Saban as of 2016). Mack Brown, incidentally, is 0.659, a bit higher than the average record in the study (0.602).

The Equation​

Finding an equation to predict a record is a matter of trying the most correlative factors against the historic W/L records. We can get a correlation factor (R-Squared) of 0.938 if we lump 8 factors in, but it is a cluttered mess. In fact we can settle for an R-Squared of 0.924 by going with just two factors. Here is the equation:

WinLossPct = 0.001818*STUD + 0.00827064*COACH

STUD = The percentage of the overall 2-deep that is studs
COACH = The all-time Win/Loss percentage of the coach.

This UNC team has 44% of its 2-deep filled with studs (=0.080011)
Mack Brown has won 65.9% of his games (=0.545)
Add them together and you get 0.625. Multiply that by 12 and you get 7.5 wins.

Given the number of studs on our defense, the introduction of a decent defensive coordinator, and the poor play of the ACC, I think this team will likely be an 8-win team, possibly 9. Of course injuries are the big wildcard. However the lack of talent and propensity for injury in the UNC secondary will be a weakness that opponents exploit. UNC's other weakness is the talent level and high age of the offensive line. Couple that with the pattern of Phil Longo's offenses typically taking 4-6 games to find their strides, and we may be in for an early-season surprise.

Nonetheless, this team will more than likely this team will lose 4 games. My guess is that they will be: ND, Pitt, @Miami, and @wake Forest.

What about NCSU?​

I've done a deep dive on NCSU and found that only 12 of their 58 2-deep players (21%) are studs. Given their coach, their relative lack of talent, the revenge factor, and the location of the game, I think UNC is likely to win that matchup.

What's a Good Stud Number?​

In the study of 37 teams (ACC and SEC, mostly), the average team had 30.3% of their two-deep that are studs. The standard deviation is 18.64, so 2/3 of the teams will be in the range of 11.6% to 48.9%. UNC's 44% is getting there, but still is a long way from the 70s level seen at Alabama. Clemson in 2016 was at 58%. They've bumped up a bit since then, but I haven't gotten to dive into them.

Entertainment Purposes​

DON'T GO BETTING YOUR HOUSE on this data. A sample size of 37 is very small and prone to much error. I'll keep gathering this data as I have time, but I thought everyone might like a little perspective on Experience, Recruiting, and Coaching.

Did anybody watch the game? I almost never watch any NFL, so I did not.

Link to ESPN article on Saturday's response.

"Tasteless from the celebration afterward," Saturday said Monday afternoon. "Just trash. Not a fan of it at all."

It does not matter to me that Thibodeaux says he had no idea Foles was injured, and it means nothing to me. Tasteless celebrations in football easily lead to fights and revenge hits. So good for Saturday.

Everyone please say a Prayer for this young man and his family. I've never seen anything like this in a ball game ,Dear Jesus please touch him and let him come threw and be ok.

Where does this leave Ian if he wants to commit this weekend?

Just beat SoCal, the team that was all but assured of being in the Playoff if only it had beaten Utah in the Pac Championship. Tulane, finishing 12-2, has made the largest turn around in 1 season in FBS history.

Now that is coaching.

Commits to the Heels per Tipton.

Let’s go!!

So... we ended the calendar year on a really sour note, and unsurprisingly, restiveness and recriminations amongst the Tar Heel faithful (and not-so-faithful) are afoot.

Some focus on system/coaching, some on players --- both are fair game. I will offer one suggestion as to what will determine our fate moving forward. Our personnel situation is what it is, and the staff has tried one appoach that failed --- the undortunate offensive experiment --- but progress HAS been made since that was abandoned.

HOWEVER, they now need to finish the adjustment. The one pattern deficit I still see in charting game trends is that we tend now to start strong as to pushing transition, but then SLOW DOWN in the second half into a more half-court mode. While there are certainly situations in which that makes sense, the staff's next correction IMO needs to be dedication to a TRANSITION-based approach for the ENTIRE game, which starts with a commitment to run and execute the Secondary as our default offensive trigger.

Not doing that is the main explainer of why Mando didn't get his touches in the second half Friday. Point is, it's not that individual players are willfully screwing things up, as much as they need to be wrangled within systemic rules, given their respective shortcomings. We don't have a PG --- a coach-on-the-floor --- so the one vital thing the Secondary does is it mitigates enough of the decision-making onus in the short shot-clock era such that it invites getting the ball in the right places. That approach, combined with judicious use of set plays is our best chance for success in 2023

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The food truck space is one of the fastest growing segments of the food and beverage industry.

This month’s concept is an interactive, mobile franchise opportunity that offers a sweet escape from corporate America:

• Turn-key, one of a kind mobile franchise
• Fun for the whole family!
• High margins with low waste
• Semi-absentee
• Minimal labor overhead
• Flat weekly royalties (no penalty for success)

Thanks for playing!