Any Word On How the New 3-Pt Line Is Affecting Shooting Percentages?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

From practice - ours or anybody's? I haven't seen any comments on this.

When the announcement was first made we had a bunch of different opinions on the impact.

Some opined that it wouldn't matter. The players will adjust.

Some thought it wouldn't matter for some, but might bump several players lower in the rotation because their percentages would drop. Whereas a few might not even notice. Probably wouldn't have bothered Cam, for example, if it had happened last year.

And some thought it would affect enough players that we might see some serious offensive and defensive changes. More packing in, for example, since some teams may not be able to punish you from deep. Perhaps some trick zones - box and triangle versions that focus on the 1 or 2 deep threats. More 3-point shooting from corners, meaning more players running to those spots on breaks, among other things.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We are especially expecting good outside shooting from

Cole
BRob
Keeling
Leaky
Justin
Andrew

Anybody else? Ant, if he's healthy?

Seems unlikely that ALL of them will adjust to the new line without problems.

Alternatively, if someone does slip, that could mean more PT for guys like Andrew.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

I bet it equalizes by mid season. fewer green lights and more mid-range will become the norm. Peeps will go back to actually playing bball! (A brother can dream...no?)

 

[DSouthr]

It is going to make a difference, who the heck knows how much, we can't even see a trend until maybe mid season but there will be a noticeable difference. You may see it in the % of makes, most likely spot, but you may as well see a drop off in attempts and I suspect we see both to some degree.

The trend in the college gamer has been going to more zone defenses, the longer trey should not slow that trend down at all. However, you give a good shooter a clean look and the extra difference will not matter that much, it will matter if the trey is hard contested. So do the zone defense extend out even further to hold check on the shooter, if so then that opens up more driving lanes for good ball handlers and a guy like Cole can feast on that!

 

[Barry 24]

It will have a big effect. A little over 10% drop. A 38% shooter will be a 34% shooter from the new line

 

[NCAAUCoach]

They used the extended line in the NIT last year. There were nearly 500 attempts (decent sample size) and the result was a 33% success rate vs 34.4% for the year for the same teams. That could be attributed to better defense, nerves, etc....but it wasn’t a big impact. If a team shoots 20 threes a game, it’s the difference in making 6.6 and 6.9. Not a huge impact.

 

[TarHeelTroy]

One thing is Guards will have to be strong rebounders. More misses from deeper means more longer bounces off the rim

 

[TarHeelTroy]

@NCAAUCoach already mentioned 3pt line was at the Int'l distance for 2019 NIT, so I'm just tagging along after this post. This is some of what I posted in a thread back in the spring when we were discussing the rule changes. Just some data if it may be of interest...

In the 2019 NIT...Teams shot basically the same number of attempts from 3 (actually a bit more), but their % went down by about 2%. With the move to 20'9" back in 2008, that season the overall % went down by less than 1% but over the next several years steadily came back to the exact same % it was before, when the line was a foot closer in.

Teams in the 2019 NIT averaged 23.1 field goal attempts in the tournament from behind the arc, compared with 22.8 3-point attempts in the 2018-19 regular season. The 3-point shooting percentage of teams in the 2019 NIT was 33%, compared with their regular season average of 35.2%.

22.8 att per game in the regular season compared to 23.1 att per game in 2019 NIT

When the line was moved before the 2008-09 season, the distance went from 19 feet, 9 inches to 20 feet, 9 inches. The percentage of 3-point shots made during that season compared with the previous season declined from 35.2% to 34.4%. The percentage of made 3-point field goals steadily increased back to 35.2% in Division I by the 2017-18 season.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Real shooters will adjust and the marginal, "I can hit this sometimes" guy will hesitate more and shoot it less. The sight line from a shooter's perspective is quite different but who knows after they all adjust.

 

[soap - new and improved]

David, Coach and Troy nailed it. It will matter little wrt the number of attempts, and only a little more wrt percentages made. Many of these kids have been practicing from NBA range since Middle School. My great nephew plays for a middle school team and he works harder on making deep shots than any other aspect of his game. I keep telling him at his height/build he should be pushing ball handling and defense the hardest, but it falls on deaf ears.

 

[Steat]

Cam Johnson is not walking through that door. He can't be replaced. His timely outside shooting probably won 2-3 games for the Heels last year

A possible secret weapon is Justin Pierce.

The official season starts in 3 weeks against Notre Dame at home.

 

[TarHeelTroy]

Also there is a rule change for the shot clock to reset to 20 seconds after offensive rebounds instead of 30. I like this rule for shorter possessions and speeding up the game.

 

[Archer2]

Over the last 10 years under Roy, here are our team per game stats for 3’s attempted, 3-pt FG% made, and total PPG. We tend to shoot more during the years where we have better 3-pt shooters, just as you would expect from a good head coach’s team. And we tend to average more points during those same years, again as you would expect.

I‘m sure we don’t have a 3-pt shooter of Cam’s caliber(45.7%) on this year’s team, perhaps not even of Coby’s caliber(35.3%). That, more than the increased distance of the arc, will mean less 3-pt attempts, IMO. Hopefully that will be offset by a more effective inside game.


‘10 453 3FGA 33.6% 75.2 PPG
‘11 519 3FGA 33.3% 76.7 PPG
‘12 486 3FGA 34.4% 82.0 PPG
‘13 652 3FGA 37.1% 77.2 PPG
‘14 399 3FGA 33.6% 76.3 PPG
‘15 484 3FGA 34.5% 77.9 PPG
‘16 583 3FGA 31.4% 82.3 PPG
‘17 672 3FGA 36.6% 84.9 PPG
‘18 796 3FGA 36.4% 82.0 PPG
‘19 791 3FGA 36.5% 86.1 PPG

ETA: 10 year averages:

584 3FGA 34.7% 80.1 PPG

 

[unchampions]

‘10 453 3FGA 33.6% 75.2 PPG
‘11 519 3FGA 33.3% 76.7 PPG
‘12 486 3FGA 34.4% 82.0 PPG
‘13 652 3FGA 37.1% 77.2 PPG
‘14 399 3FGA 33.6% 76.3 PPG
‘15 484 3FGA 34.5% 77.9 PPG
‘16 583 3FGA 31.4% 82.3 PPG
‘17 672 3FGA 36.6% 84.9 PPG
‘18 796 3FGA 36.4% 82.0 PPG
‘19 791 3FGA 36.5% 86.1 PPG

Top 3 attempts in last 3 years, and 3/4 of the top %. Nice trend. Wonder how the % compares to other schools. I'm sure most are trending up with respect to attempts.

 

[Archer2]

Top 3 attempts in last 3 years, and 3/4 of the top %. Nice trend. Wonder how the % compares to other schools. I'm sure most are trending up with respect to attempts.

There’s no doubt that the trey is becoming more and more of a weapon, at both the college and pro levels. And while I think Roy will still work inside-out, he’s adapting to current trends. Will the longer distance have much effect on the trend? The stats we have tend to indicate that it won’t.

Perimeter marksmen are at a premium these days, ergo why we’re prioritizing Bryce, and why I think Puff would be such a great addition.

 

[DSouthr]

There’s no doubt that the trey is becoming more and more of a weapon, at both the college and pro levels. And while I think Roy will still work inside-out, he’s adapting to current trends. Will the longer distance have much effect on the trend? The stats we have tend to indicate that it won’t.

Perimeter marksmen are at a premium these days, ergo why we’re prioritizing Bryce, and why I think Puff would be such a great addition.

Dude, let me LIKE your comments on Bryce and Puff a thousand times, they are perfect fits for us!!!

 

[Archer2]

Dude, let me LIKE your comments on Bryce and Puff a thousand times, they are perfect fits for us!!!

Especially Puff, for me, because he would be a 3-4 year player. But the search for perimeter marksmen is on.

 

[DSouthr]

Especially Puff, for me, because he would be a 3-4 year player. But the search for perimeter marksmen is on.

Yeah arch, while I really like Bryce, I am not going to front, PUff is my guy! I take puff over any offer we have outstanding and yes, as crazy as it sounds, I take him over CC, because he fits so freaking perfectly with us!

 

[Archer2]

Outstanding perimeter marksman, with great range. And if he’s anything like his brother, a fine young man. I know many have given up hope, thinking he’s Arizona bound, I keep thinking he would be the perfect 3-4 year player for us.

 

[2DDIMOND]

It will have a big effect. A little over 10% drop. A 38% shooter will be a 34% shooter from the new line

That’s some Yogi Berra math right there!

 

[2DDIMOND]

Outstanding perimeter marksman, with great range. And if he’s anything like his brother, a fine young man. I know many have given up hope, thinking he’s Arizona bound, I keep thinking he would be the perfect 3-4 year player for us.

I think he prefers the Heels & will commit once he knows there will be a spot. I’m hoping we have room once the dust settles.

 

[imajericho]

I have no idea why so many of you want Puff Johnson as your first choice.

 

[2DDIMOND]

I have no idea why so many of you want Puff Johnson as your first choice.

so far I count 1 that says he’s their first choice. A bunch of us would like to have him, but only DSouth said before anyone else.

 

[Archer2]

I have no idea why so many of you want Puff Johnson as your first choice.

Well let’s see. He’s a top 50 recruit who is 6-7, shoots with accuracy well beyond the 3-pt line, rebounds well, has good athleticism, is from a quality family, and by all accounts is ahead of Cam at this stage of his development(Cam was ranked 224th coming out of high school). Plus Zaire is a OAD and Bryce possibly so. Puff is most likely a 3-4 year guy who would provide continuity at the SF spot.

so far I count 1 that says he’s their first choice. A bunch of us would like to have him, but only DSouth said before anyone else.

I’m with David. I rather have Puff than Bryce or Zaire. I wish I could say that I feel good about his coming to UNC.