Are We Done? How Do the Rotations Work?

[gauchoheel]

First of all let me say I'm super thrilled with the addition of Cam Johnson. From here on I'll assume he's playing this year, because I can't imagine it ending up otherwise. With that said here is the scholarship roster for next year:

Points (3): Berry, Woods, Felton

Wings (5): Williams, Pinson, Johnson, Robinson, Platek

Bigs (4): Maye, Brooks, Huffman, Manley

We've still got 1 scholarship spot remaining. Does it get used on a new player? I would still love to see a final big added that can dominate the glass, but I have a feeling this is the final roster. If this is the roster, how do you see the minutes being divided? I'll say for lineups:

Starters: Berry, Williams, Johnson, Pinson, Huffman
Bench (starting with first off the bench): Maye, Felton, Brooks, Woods, Robinson

Rotations:

1: Joel plays the majority of the minutes here, but has no need to be pushed hard most games given how he got worn down a bit last year. Give Felton and Woods plenty of opportunities to each spell him, and also at times let Felton try point with Berry off the ball.

2: Kenny will "start" nominally but this position will be all over the map. He'll play some here and some at the 3. Seventh and Felton will both also get 5-10 minutes per game at the 2.

3: Cam starts at the 3 IMO; he's taller than Pinson but lighter and Pinson is a better rebounder. Either of them can slide up depending on matchups though. Kenny and Theo play here occasionally, and Robinson gets 10-12 minutes per game too.

4: Pinson starts at the 4 as Roy truly decides to go small frequently given the roster. Imagine a big 4 trying to stop a driving Theo! That said, Luke will get 20 minutes per game at the 4, as he's not enough of a rim protector to play 5 frequently. Cam will also play some here with Berry, Felton, and Williams.

5: I see Huffman starting just because he seems to be the most physical. The only question marks for this team are rim protection and rebounding when Luke is not playing the 4. Huffman seems to have the size and aggression to potentially be a good rebounder right away (as Meeks was). We'll have so much offense at the rest of the spots that even being a non-factor on offense shouldn't be a huge issue. Brooks will get 15 minutes per game here, or more if Huffman is in foul trouble.

 

[Tom79]

The thing I like about Huff is if he is within a step of the rim it is a dunk. I hope his FT shooting is solid.

 

[dadika13]

The thought of the JB/Felton/Cam/Theo/Brooks small ball lineup makes me happy.

 

[pln2013]

The thought of the JB/Felton/Cam/Theo/Brooks small ball lineup makes me happy.

If Felton looks good early and Brooks shows he can protect the rim and rebound at a strong level, this should be our best lineup.

 

[ajklum]

JB
Felton
Cam
Theo
Brooks/Huffman will be the lineup. KW will get a chance but "injuries" (mostly to his ankles as he tries to contain Felton) will put him on the bench. Then him and Luke will come in and spell Theo and Felton with BW coming in for Cam. Theo only gets the start over Luke because we need someone that will goto the basket and Cam aint that guy. Cam reminds me of veacham (spelled wrong I am sure) from ND. Long and light.

 

[Spaceytoyz]

Cam added to this mix makes this team very competitive, without him they had no true slasher scoring wing..

 

[pln2013]

Cam added to this mix makes this team very competitive, without him they had no true slasher scoring wing..

Johnson is not a slasher. ~2/3 of his shots are 3s, and his free throw attempt rate was the lowest of Pitt's regular rotation. He's a shooter - perhaps an exceptional one - but not much beyond that as a scorer. At least in terms of what he's shown.

He's a big pickup for us because he is a great shooter whose height gives him versatility, but he's not a shot creator.

 

[Archer2]

How much will our returning players improve? Which of the freshmen are ready to play meaningful minutes? Does Roy feel comfortable playing small ball for extended periods of time? All these questions and more will determine how the minutes are doled out.

But we do have quality backups at every position and several guys who can play more than one position. IOW, Roy has a plethora of lineup options and will try many of them, much to the chagrin of some, before he settles on his rotation.

We will lose some games early that will have the fretted out in full force but the season oughta be a blast to watch.

 

[dadika13]

How much will our returning players improve? Which of the freshmen are ready to play meaningful minutes?

Gigantic question marks here.

BRob, Woods, Kenny will suddenly need to play much larger roles.

Are any of the frosh bigs ready? Could be the difference between first weekend out and a run.

 

[pln2013]

Gigantic question marks here.

BRob, Woods, Kenny will suddenly need to play much larger roles.

Are any of the frosh bigs ready? Could be the difference between first weekend out and a run.

I'm not sure their roles will change very much.

We lost 5 players: Britt, Jackson, Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley.

That's only 2 backcourt players, and we've effectively replaced both of them. Felton replaces Britt (I expect Felton to be better), and Johnson replaces Jackson (this will be a drop-off). I expect the backup guards and wings to have roles similar to what they had last year.

Our problem is that we're relying on low-ranked first-year bigs to replace Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley. Woods, Williams, and Robinson all improving dramatically wouldn't change that.

We're extremely unbalanced when it comes to our distribution of talent.

 

[Archer2]

We'll be fine.

 

[Heeelz46]

I'm not sure their roles will change very much.

We lost 5 players: Britt, Jackson, Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley.

That's only 2 backcourt players, and we've effectively replaced both of them. Felton replaces Britt (I expect Felton to be better), and Johnson replaces Jackson (this will be a drop-off). I expect the backup guards and wings to have roles similar to what they had last year.

Our problem is that we're relying on low-ranked first-year bigs to replace Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley. Woods, Williams, and Robinson all improving dramatically wouldn't change that.

We're extremely unbalanced when it comes to our distribution of talent.

Yep. we have a top 5 in the nation backcourt and a CBI level frontcourt. Going to be interesting for sure.

 

[gunslingerdick]

If Felton looks good early and Brooks shows he can protect the rim and rebound at a strong level, this should be our best lineup.

Best *offensive* line up. Felton and Brooks are going to struggle defensively. That won't suit Ol' Roy. And that line up you're advocating for will be lucky to get a rebound.

 

[Archer2]

Our problem is that we're relying on low-ranked first-year bigs to replace Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley. Woods, Williams, and Robinson all improving dramatically wouldn't change that.

We're extremely unbalanced when it comes to our distribution of talent.

If I have to have inexperience, I'd rather it be in the front court than the backcourt. Great guard and wing play is more important in college. Great guard/wing play means good shots for the entire team. The best C/PF in the country can't score if the guards can't get him the ball in scoring position.

Our bigs will be serviceable.

 

[gunslingerdick]

If I have to have inexperience, I'd rather it be in the front court than the backcourt. Great guard and wing play is more important in college. Great guard/wing play means good shots for the entire team. The best C/PF in the country can't score if the guards can't get him the ball in scoring position.

Our bigs will be serviceable.

Agreed.

But the theme I keep seeing here is people stressing the scoring ability of the bigs or putting line ups together that would be made up of the best scorers. Rebounding will be an issue. Meeks was a top 10 rebounder of all time at UNC. Hicks and Jackson weren't slouches either. And you know how Roy feels about rebounding and defense. That's going to play a lot bigger role in who plays and how much.

 

[gauchoheel]

If I have to have inexperience, I'd rather it be in the front court than the backcourt. Great guard and wing play is more important in college. Great guard/wing play means good shots for the entire team. The best C/PF in the country can't score if the guards can't get him the ball in scoring position.

Our bigs will be serviceable.

One thing is, Maye is really not an offensive "big". Most of the time if he is posting up it is a loss for the offense. He is better used to pull a big defender out of the key and take advantage of his great shooting ability, plus running pick and pops or other sets to get him space. So I think the offense will look different more than it will be worse. The 5 should be the only real big in our offense most of the time.

 

[gary-7]

First of all let me say I'm super thrilled with the addition of Cam Johnson. From here on I'll assume he's playing this year, because I can't imagine it ending up otherwise. With that said here is the scholarship roster for next year:

Points (3): Berry, Woods, Felton

Wings (5): Williams, Pinson, Johnson, Robinson, Platek

Bigs (4): Maye, Brooks, Huffman, Manley

We've still got 1 scholarship spot remaining. Does it get used on a new player? I would still love to see a final big added that can dominate the glass, but I have a feeling this is the final roster. If this is the roster, how do you see the minutes being divided? I'll say for lineups:

Starters: Berry, Williams, Johnson, Pinson, Huffman
Bench (starting with first off the bench): Maye, Felton, Brooks, Woods, Robinson

Rotations:

1: Joel plays the majority of the minutes here, but has no need to be pushed hard most games given how he got worn down a bit last year. Give Felton and Woods plenty of opportunities to each spell him, and also at times let Felton try point with Berry off the ball.

2: Kenny will "start" nominally but this position will be all over the map. He'll play some here and some at the 3. Seventh and Felton will both also get 5-10 minutes per game at the 2.

3: Cam starts at the 3 IMO; he's taller than Pinson but lighter and Pinson is a better rebounder. Either of them can slide up depending on matchups though. Kenny and Theo play here occasionally, and Robinson gets 10-12 minutes per game too.

4: Pinson starts at the 4 as Roy truly decides to go small frequently given the roster. Imagine a big 4 trying to stop a driving Theo! That said, Luke will get 20 minutes per game at the 4, as he's not enough of a rim protector to play 5 frequently. Cam will also play some here with Berry, Felton, and Williams.

5: I see Huffman starting just because he seems to be the most physical. The only question marks for this team are rim protection and rebounding when Luke is not playing the 4. Huffman seems to have the size and aggression to potentially be a good rebounder right away (as Meeks was). We'll have so much offense at the rest of the spots that even being a non-factor on offense shouldn't be a huge issue. Brooks will get 15 minutes per game here, or more if Huffman is in foul trouble.

My personal recipe for success starts with Jalek getting ALL the backup PG minutes (except mop-up). I say that unapologetically and cannot overstate how important that may prove to be. We just don't have the margin for error we had last season, and can't afford the drastic fall-off we endured last season at the most important position... even for 8-10 minutes/game.

As for the rest, a lot can happen and I expect to see Roy's typical early-season experimentation being even more ubiquitous than usual.

A few notes:
1. Summer will be crucial for the frosh (even more so than usual).
2. My guess (which is subject to change when the summer scuttlebutt starts coming in ) is that Brooks emerges as the most ready Big, and even though he's ultimately capable of being a Stretch-4, he may well start at the 5.
3. I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Luke doesn't start, but... that being said, see the experimentation reference above.
4. Line-ups with Theo swinging to the 4 will likely be common... just don't know if Roy will be willing to start that way.
5. As @FlaTarHeel correctly said, we have a terrific cadre of perimeter players --- much better than even most Heel fans appreciate. JB, KW and Theo are beyond legit, I fully expect great strides by BRob, and 7th as well (especially if he gets moved off the ball), Jalek is a budding phenom who can step in immediately and give big immediate contributions at both the 1 and 2, and don't sleep on Platek.
6. Finally if --- and I repeat IF --- Cam is willing to step into the role we need from him, that could be the clincher for a great season. The role I'm referring to is that coveted Hybrid Forward, a 3/4 guy who can do damage from outside AND and be willing to attack the rim and midrange game, play tough D and get more rebounds than Wanda.

Gonna be fun. Can't wait

 

[gary-7]

Our problem is that we're relying on low-ranked first-year bigs to replace Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley. Woods, Williams, and Robinson all improving dramatically wouldn't change that.

It'll sure as hell change a lot of other aspects for the better of what will likely be a different approach.

 

[Archer2]

Agreed.

Rebounding will be an issue. Meeks was a top 10 rebounder of all time at UNC. Hicks and Jackson weren't slouches either. And you know how Roy feels about rebounding and defense. That's going to play a lot bigger role in who plays and how much.

Couldn't agree more. The freshman bigs who can defend at a decent level and rebound the ball are going to get preference in PT. I'm not as worried about scoring as I am about interior defense and rebounding.

 

[dadika13]

Couldn't agree more. The freshman bigs who can defend at a decent level and rebound the ball are going to get preference in PT. I'm not as worried about scoring as I am about interior defense and rebounding.

Outside of Berry, who do you feel comfortable with the ball in their hands to score?

We lost 54.2 points per game from last season which was 64.5% of our scoring. That is going to be a VERY difficult to replace.

 

[pln2013]

Best *offensive* line up. Felton and Brooks are going to struggle defensively. That won't suit Ol' Roy. And that line up you're advocating for will be lucky to get a rebound.

We don't have a single big who isn't likely to struggle defensively. Brooks is the big I expect to struggle the least.

Defense and rebounding will be a problem for every lineup we put on the floor, unless a big plays beyond his years on that end.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

I expect to see Roy's typical early-season experimentation being even more ubiquitous than usual.

Noted. My personal goal for this season is to refrain from getting pissed off when Roy does his experimentation lineups or elects to not call a timeout to stop a run early in the season. Sure, it'll probably cost us an OOC game or two like it does every year - but we were able to see that the experience paid off during the postseason run (Luke especially). And I think its clear that this season's team will need a lot more of that experimentation to figure out what works than last years.

 

[dadika13]

Noted. My personal goal for this season is to refrain from getting pissed off when Roy does his experimentation lineups early in the season.

Key words here...wanted to throw my TV out the window when we went with Theo, Tony, Nate, 7th, Luke with 13 min to go in the first half of the CHAMPIONSHIP game. Zags promptly went on a 7-0 run.

Never understood why he'd have our top 4 scorers on the bench at the same time in the NCAA's.

 

[Archer2]

Outside of Berry, who do you feel comfortable with the ball in their hands to score?

With extended PT, I think we'll see consistent scoring from Theo, Luke, Cameron, and Jalek as well.

 

[gunslingerdick]

We don't have a single big who isn't likely to struggle defensively. Brooks is the big I expect to struggle the least.

Defense and rebounding will be a problem for every lineup we put on the floor, unless a big plays beyond his years on that end.

Right. All I'm saying is that I like Huffman's rebounding and defensive chops the most of the 3 freshman bigs. Granted, I've not seen any of them play live. But his aggressive nature, his size and his athletic ability make me believe he could emerge as the best of the trio in regards to eating space, rebounding and protecting the rim. Plus, I'm just not a fan of the idea of having Pinson play the 4 a whole lot. 5 minutes here and there, sure. But I'd rather have Brooks backing up Maye.

 

[gary-7]

Noted. My personal goal for this season is to refrain from getting pissed off when Roy does his experimentation lineups or elects to not call a timeout to stop a run early in the season. Sure, it'll probably cost us an OOC game or two like it does every year - but we were able to see that the experience paid off during the postseason run (Luke especially). And I think its clear that this season's team will need a lot more of that experimentation to figure out what works than last years.

That's a fine resolution right there, and I'm with ya.
Hell, this season I'd prolly get ticked at Roy if he didn't experiment early!

 

[gary-7]

With extended PT, I think we'll see consistent scoring from Theo, Luke, Cameron, and Jalek as well.

Add KW and BRob.
All Kenny needs offensively is to adopt a more aggressive mindset --- I expect that to happen.
And Brandon has never had a problem scoring --- his leap needs to be strength-wise for defense and rebounding.

 

[gauchoheel]

Outside of Berry, who do you feel comfortable with the ball in their hands to score?

We lost 54.2 points per game from last season which was 64.5% of our scoring. That is going to be a VERY difficult to replace.

Cam, Luke, and Kenny shooting the ball. Theo and Jalek driving. Theo's just gotta improve a bit on finishing, but he has plenty of moves to create shots and draw defenders to get other guys open. I don't think we'll struggle to score whenever Joel is on the floor, and even maybe when he's not given all our shooting and Jalek/7th at PG.

We don't have a single big who isn't likely to struggle defensively. Brooks is the big I expect to struggle the least.

Defense and rebounding will be a problem for every lineup we put on the floor, unless a big plays beyond his years on that end.

Yeah we'll see. I have little ability to "scout" players, but especially highlight reels of HS players. Hoping one of our guys can exceed expectations.

With extended PT, I think we'll see consistent scoring from Theo, Luke, Cameron, and Jalek as well.

Exactly.

 

[pln2013]

Right. All I'm saying is that I like Huffman's rebounding and defensive chops the most of the 3 freshman bigs. Granted, I've not seen any of them play live. But his aggressive nature, his size and his athletic ability make me believe he could emerge as the best of the trio in regards to eating space, rebounding and protecting the rim. Plus, I'm just not a fan of the idea of having Pinson play the 4 a whole lot. 5 minutes here and there, sure. But I'd rather have Brooks backing up Maye.

I like Huffman's long-term potential on defense, but I think his floor is lower this year. His aggression could work against him in a big way. Brooks is quicker and seems to be more patient, so he's more likely to be serviceable.

 

[UNCFanforLife]

Roy is going to be in mad scientist mode. We really need a strong '18 class though.
Need at least one elite big to go with what we have.

 

[Archer2]

Add KW and BRob.
All Kenny needs offensively is to adopt a more aggressive mindset --- I expect that to happen.
And Brandon has never had a problem scoring --- his leap needs to be strength-wise for defense and rebounding.

I agree about Brandon. I worry about Kenny's confidence WRT scoring the ball.

 

[UNCFanforLife]

I agree about Brandon. I worry about Kenny's confidence WRT scoring the ball.

We would need Kenny to hunt his shot, something he doesn't really seem to do. Robinson isn't afraid to shoot, he is someone I hope makes huge strides this year.