Biggest Lesson from the Fiesta Bowl

[WoadBlue]

Red Zone failures lose games.

The Ohio St offense settled for 3 FGs early, building a 16-0 lead. Clemson was able to come back only because OSU failed to score TDs.

That is a warning for UNC for 2020 because of the history of Longo. If Longo does not become a more successful Red Zone OC, then we will still lose games we should have won.

 

[Archer2]

I’m confident he will open up our playbook more next year, having confidence our receivers can make clutch catches and Sam can get them the ball.

 

[Bubspub88]

If the main guys at the skill positions return Longo will be like a kid in a candy store. That many weapons with a QB who can make them look really good, Longo has to realize the opportunity he has in front of him. I think it was post game with Mack when he said they really became more conservative when they lost Sam's backup.

 

[Archer2]

If the main guys at the skill positions return Longo will be like a kid in a candy store. That many weapons with a QB who can make them look really good, Longo has to realize the opportunity he has in front of him. I think it was post game with Mack when he said they really became more conservative when they lost Sam's backup.

This.

 

[TarHeelMark]

Mack said they really became more conservative when they lost Sam's backup.

We certainly saw Sam run more in the bowl game when they didn't have to worry about a game the following week.

Mack also mentioned that they had planned on using Jace throughout the season in certain situations, so I would expect that we'll see that next year when Ruder is healthy.

Our offense was pretty darn good this year, and should be a real force next season.

 

[KOOL123]

It’s real simple give the ball to 25 and let him do the rest...

 

[Tall Squirrel]

You also learned to hope, in a big game, or any game, the officiating is blatantly one sided.

 

[Xlance]

Red Zone failures lose games.

The Ohio St offense settled for 3 FGs early, building a 16-0 lead. Clemson was able to come back only because OSU failed to score TDs.

That is a warning for UNC for 2020 because of the history of Longo. If Longo does not become a more successful Red Zone OC, then we will still lose games we should have won.

We may need a new goal instead of wanting to emulate Oklahoma's offense.

 

[Archer2]

You also learned to hope, in a big game, or any game, the officiating is blatantly one sided.

Go away tree rat.

 

[JP4UNC2020]

I think Longo and the O did incredibly well in the red zone the last 3 games. Considering we had a freshman QB and a brand new offense not sure how anyone can complain.

 

[WoadBlue]

I think Longo and the O did incredibly well in the red zone the last 3 games. Considering we had a freshman QB and a brand new offense not sure how anyone can complain.

The last 3 games are not the last 3 years of Longo as P5 OC. Do the last 3 games indicate next year for Longo as RZ OC, or will he return to his previous form?

 

[JP4UNC2020]

The last 3 games are not the last 3 years of Longo as P5 OC. Do the last 3 games indicate next year for Longo as RZ OC, or will he return to his previous form?

Who knows for sure? I think what is happening now is more indicative to the future than what happened a year or two ago at another school. He will have the same QB, RBs for the most part, and receivers. I think with time in the system efficiency should improve and the last 3 games showed improvement.

 

[Realfreedom]

The key to next year will be the improvement of the offensive line. Hopefully another year in the weight room will show big dividends.

 

[TarHeelMark]

We may need a new goal instead of wanting to emulate Oklahoma's offense.

Oklahoma's offense is pretty good; the defense is their problem area.

 

[tarheel0910]

Oklahoma's offense is pretty good; the defense is their problem area.

Obviously the triple option would be better.

 

[TarHeelMark]

Obviously the triple option would be better.

They need to sack that loser Lincoln Riley, and hire that Monken dude.

 

[Raising Heel]

Some thoughts on this topic.

1. It's worth noting that the other team is allowed to play defense. Clemson was the #5 team nationally in defensive red zone TD percentage coming into the game. Even good teams -- OSU was the #3 team nationally in offensive red zone TD percentage -- struggle sometimes against quality competition.

2. North Carolina faced the #5 (Clemson), #9 (Pittsburgh), #11 (Miami), and #14 (South Carolina) defensive red zone TD percentage defenses this season. That was a quarter of the schedule. The Heels only scored 6 TDs in 14 red zone trips (43%) against those teams.

3. North Carolina had 55 total red zone possessions this season. The difference between where they finished the season (31 of 55, 56%) and the national median (61%) is only about 3 TDs.

4. Longo was only in his third season as an FBS OC last year. He's still learning on the job. Also, Mack Brown is an offensive coach and has a staff full of offensive quality control guys. Pointing the finger solely at Longo is lazy, although some of the play calling last season admittedly left me scratching my head.

5. Execution matters as much, if not more, than play calling. Case in point: on 3rd down and 5 against NC State, North Carolina ran a run-pass option (RPO). Howell could've handed off to Carter for what probably would've been a first down, maybe even a touchdown. He also could've passed to Brown, who had beaten his defender inside in zero coverage (no safeties back, meaning the end zone is wide open). Instead, Howell chose to hold the ball and take the sack. North Carolina settled for a field goal.

(Click to enlarge)

There's every reason to hope that Howell, Longo, et al continue to improve with experience. No matter the reasons, it doesn't make sense that the Heels are likely to finish with a top-15 offense that's only top 40 in scoring. They have to find a way to turn yards into points.

 

[tarheel0910]

Some thoughts on this topic.

1. It's worth noting that the other team is allowed to play defense. Clemson was the #5 team nationally in defensive red zone TD percentage coming into the game. Even good teams -- OSU was the #3 team nationally in offensive red zone TD percentage -- struggle sometimes against quality competition.

2. North Carolina faced the #5 (Clemson), #9 (Pittsburgh), #11 (Miami), and #14 (South Carolina) defensive red zone TD percentage defenses this season. That was a quarter of the schedule. The Heels only scored 6 TDs in 14 red zone trips (43%) against those teams.

3. North Carolina had 55 total red zone possessions this season. The difference between where they finished the season (31 of 55, 56%) and the national median (61%) is only about 3 TDs.

4. Longo was only in his third season as an FBS OC last year. He's still learning on the job. Also, Mack Brown is an offensive coach and has a staff full of offensive quality control guys. Pointing the finger solely at Longo is lazy, although some of the play calling last season admittedly left me scratching my head.

5. Execution matters as much, if not more, than play calling. Case in point: on 3rd down and 5 against NC State, North Carolina ran a run-pass option (RPO). Howell could've handed off to Carter for what probably would've been a first down, maybe even a touchdown. He also could've passed to Brown, who had beaten his defender inside in zero coverage (no safeties back, meaning the end zone is wide open). Instead, Howell chose to hold the ball and take the sack. North Carolina settled for a field goal.

(Click to enlarge)

There's every reason to hope that Howell, Longo, et al continue to improve with experience. No matter the reasons, it doesn't make sense that the Heels are likely to finish with a top-15 offense that's only top 40 in scoring. They have to find a way to turn yards into points.

 

[JP4UNC2020]

Great post Raising.

 

[Archer2]

The last 3 games are not the last 3 years of Longo as P5 OC. Do the last 3 games indicate next year for Longo as RZ OC, or will he return to his previous form?

With almost the entire offense returning, I think the last three games are pretty indicative of what we’ll see moving forward. I think Mack got into his ear a little, maybe a lot, and told him we had to come away with more TD’s in the RZ.

Hopefully we’ll have a healthy backup at QB next season, I think the staff was terrified to let Sam run much this year. I don’t want him running too much, just enough to make defenses honor that threat.