Brice Johnson's.....

[DSouthr]

I am not going to speculate on where Brice will be picked, my speculation is IMO where he should be picked and that IMO is top 5. The NBA makes no logical sense to me, they pass on the guy that proves he can produce for the guy they think one day may be able to? I sure can't run a business that way and have a chance of making it.

BUT, truth is, while it may cost him a few dollars on his rookie contract, Brice may well be better off going later in the draft as opposed to earlier. Go later and be on a good team and be able to learn the NBA game behind already solid established players that have a good system in place or go to a team that is not winning and needs you to be a day 1 star before you are really ready.

The real money in the NBA game is not where you are drafted, it is in being able to help a team and especially help a play off team, those teams drafted late rather than early. Danny Green was not drafted early but Danny is cashing HUGE checks but if that number 1 in the draft pick bombs out and is not able to be that day 1 star, his second contract numbers will fall below that guy drafted second round but showed he could help a winner keep on winning.

To those who much is given, much is expected, the NBA loves that law!

 

[ChiShankCity]

I am not going to speculate on where Brice will be picked, my speculation is IMO where he should be picked and that IMO is top 5. The NBA makes no logical sense to me, they pass on the guy that proves he can produce for the guy they think one day may be able to? I sure can't run a business that way and have a chance of making it.

I think the question will be why it took Brice until his senior season to be productive.

He got similar minutes last year and was not nearly as productive. Also, you compare to:
Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, Jaylen Brown... Those kids were all similarly productive statistically as 18-19 year olds.

So if you have equivalent production from an 18-20 year old compared to a guy who will be 22 when the draft comes, you're probably going to draft the 18-20 year old because by the time they're 22, they maybe better than Brice is right now.

Also, if we look at Roy's NBA history with big guys... This is the list off the top of my head:
Sean May, Marvin Williams (more of a SF), Jawad Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, James Michael McAdoo... I think that's it. You stretch back to his great KU bigs: Nick Collison, Drew Gooden, Raef LaFrentz....

Among those bigs, is there 1 guy who even started consistently throughout his career? The best big is probably Drew Gooden? So Roy has a mediocre history with big guys in the NBA. So I'm guessing there isn't a lot of trust that Roy produces starting caliber big guys.

And if you draft Brice in the top 5. At minimum, he needs to be a 5 year starter.

 

[dadika13]

The NBA works on potential and always will. You bring up examples where seniors were drafted late and contributed, but there are SO many examples of young kids getting drafted behind juniors/seniors and having much more productive careers. And they were drafted based on potential.

Remember the D Howard vs. Okafor argument? Chris Paul after Deron Williams? Sheldon Williams? Thabbet over like 7 future all stars? Evan Turner over Cousins and PG13? Jimmer over Kwahi? Thomas Robinson over Andre Drummond?

Bottom line is NBA GM's draft based on who they think will be the best player in 3-5 years. Knowing this, I will guarantee that Brice will not be a top 10 pick. I'm not saying I agree with it, I'm saying it's the way the world works.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Also, if we look at Roy's NBA history with big guys... This is the list off the top of my head:
Sean May, Marvin Williams (more of a SF), Jawad Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, James Michael McAdoo... I think that's it. You stretch back to his great KU bigs: Nick Collison, Drew Gooden, Raef LaFrentz...

John Henson was omitted from your list, and he's carving out a decent niche for himself in Milwaukee. Paul Pierce was obviously his best pro - but if we're keeping SF's out of this list I see why you omitted him. Although, with Brice he'll probably need to develop into a stretch 4 in order to get significant time which isn't that far off.

I'm not sure how much the coaches history should really impact it though. Embiid was drafted high, but what's Self's history with bigs... the Morris twins? Same could actually be said with Okafor - K's been at it forever, and proportionally his NBA players aren't often bigs.

 

[gunslingerdick]

I think the question will be why it took Brice until his senior season to be productive.

He got similar minutes last year and was not nearly as productive. Also, you compare to:
Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, Jaylen Brown... Those kids were all similarly productive statistically as 18-19 year olds.

So if you have equivalent production from an 18-20 year old compared to a guy who will be 22 when the draft comes, you're probably going to draft the 18-20 year old because by the time they're 22, they maybe better than Brice is right now.

Also, if we look at Roy's NBA history with big guys... This is the list off the top of my head:
Sean May, Marvin Williams (more of a SF), Jawad Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, James Michael McAdoo... I think that's it. You stretch back to his great KU bigs: Nick Collison, Drew Gooden, Raef LaFrentz....

Among those bigs, is there 1 guy who even started consistently throughout his career? The best big is probably Drew Gooden? So Roy has a mediocre history with big guys in the NBA. So I'm guessing there isn't a lot of trust that Roy produces starting caliber big guys.

And if you draft Brice in the top 5. At minimum, he needs to be a 5 year starter.

Regarding the part I bolded - That's such faulty logic though and rarely pans out that way. Look at the young talent in the NBA. They either came in as bona fide superstars or they're role players. Their production as freshman in college is really irrelevant. Plus, throw in the fact that a 22 year old who has been under the leadership of a good coach for 4 years is most likely going to be more mentally and emotionally mature, and that should outweigh the "chance" that the 19 year old will be better than the 22 year old when they get to be 22. Because as I stated, that's not a certainty. But what is certain is that the 22 year old will be more ready for the rigors of the NBA life and will most likely be more coachable, and more understanding of his role.

@Hark_The_Sound_2010 nailed it. GMs are lazy and they pick the guy with potential because it's become "ok" to swing and miss on those. Teams justify it by saying, "well, we gambled on the young kid with potential and it didn't work out." It's the safe way of doing things. Just like 30 years ago, GMs would have been considered fools if they were drafting 19 year olds that haven't proven as much as the 22 year old senior. But don't dare pick a 22 year old and it not work out. You'll be out of a job. That's why the NBA game has drastically changed from a "man's" game into a little boy's game. It's about running fast and jumping high versus the skill that was shown in the NBA 30 years ago. It saddens me really and that's why the NBA game to me is almost unwatchable now. Let's make a comparison to "real life". Would you prefer a hospital hire a guy that's only 2 years into med school but hasn't done his residency or fellowship yet? What if he's really, really smart and has the look of a doctor? Or would you rather have the hospital hire a guy that's done the job for 9 years and has seen a lot more? Mechanic? I'll take the guy with 20 years experience over the guy that just got out of machine shop. Teacher? Again, give me the one that's been around the block versus someone that graduated top of their class just last year.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Ahh, drafting on potential.
In the bad old days of HS to pros I used to joke how if a kid was good at maths would it be OK for him to do my tax returns. Same as your analogy's slinger!
I don't think anyone is saying that Brice has the 'upside' of a Simmons or Ingram but I'd argue he has much less 'downside' than either of those two and definitely less downside of other potential lotto kids from the OAD pool.

 

[dadika13]

Ahh, drafting on potential.
In the bad old days of HS to pros I used to joke how if a kid was good at maths would it be OK for him to do my tax returns. Same as your analogy's slinger!
I don't think anyone is saying that Brice has the 'upside' of a Simmons or Ingram but I'd argue he has much less 'downside' than either of those two and definitely less downside of other potential lotto kids from the OAD pool.

The teams that drafted Kobe, Garnett, McGrady, Lebron, Chandler, Amare, and Dwight severely disagree with you.

 

[DSouthr]

I think the question will be why it took Brice until his senior season to be productive.

He got similar minutes last year and was not nearly as productive. Also, you compare to:
Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, Jaylen Brown... Those kids were all similarly productive statistically as 18-19 year olds.

So if you have equivalent production from an 18-20 year old compared to a guy who will be 22 when the draft comes, you're probably going to draft the 18-20 year old because by the time they're 22, they maybe better than Brice is right now.

Also, if we look at Roy's NBA history with big guys... This is the list off the top of my head:
Sean May, Marvin Williams (more of a SF), Jawad Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, James Michael McAdoo... I think that's it. You stretch back to his great KU bigs: Nick Collison, Drew Gooden, Raef LaFrentz....

Among those bigs, is there 1 guy who even started consistently throughout his career? The best big is probably Drew Gooden? So Roy has a mediocre history with big guys in the NBA. So I'm guessing there isn't a lot of trust that Roy produces starting caliber big guys.

And if you draft Brice in the top 5. At minimum, he needs to be a 5 year starter.

Players develop at different time lines, there is no one size fits all when it comes to that. The point is that they do develop as opposed to they may develop, Brice has develped, he has gotten better and better each season at UNC, that can not be argued, do we say now that his growth as a player will stop just because he is on the cusp of entering the NBA? He has developed in to being the best big man in the college game, 1st team NCAA AA.

Clearly, when you have a Anthony Davis for example, it is a no brainer, he not only produced but he showed so much more room to produce. With Brice, I ask, what more do you want your big man to do, step outside and shoot treys from half court? Literally, that is the only part of his game he has not shown, stepping out to 3pt range and he has not shown that because that is not what UNC big men do, UNC big men work in that painted part of the court and dominate in there.

Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, Jaylen Brown...These guys may all become great NBA players one day but before they get there they will have to get to where Brice is now, better than any other college player at their position. Meaning, if they are in the NBA but are not better than any other college player at their position then they have not achieved what Brice already has.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

The teams that drafted Kobe, Garnett, McGrady, Lebron, Chandler, Amare, and Dwight severely disagree with you.

The list of botched HS to pros is even longer. Darius Miles, Sebastian Telfair, Jonathan Bender, Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift and of course - Kwame Brown just to name a few.

 

[Sk1310]

Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop

 

[gunslingerdick]

Jonathan Bender, Korleone Young, Taj McDavid, Leon Smith, James Lang, Lenny Cooke, Travis Outlaw, Dorell Wright, Jackie Butler, and Ricky Sanchez all had "potential". What?...never heard of any of them? That's alright. Many haven't. Because they didn't amount to jack shit after having been drafted on potential. Ask the GMs (that most likely don't have their jobs anymore), if they could go back and take a 4 year player from a good program instead of the draft choice they made, would they do it?

 

[Ozheelfan]

The teams that drafted Kobe, Garnett, McGrady, Lebron, Chandler, Amare, and Dwight severely disagree with you.

Sorry, but throwing out a few successful names to justify a flawed system is pretty disingenuous.

You could easily argue that in every high school class there are 2-3 players who'd successfully transition straight to the pros. In every 2-3 classes there is a can't miss/future all star and every 7-10 years there is a multiple MVP calibre player. That's what your above list represents.

But in the years before the NBA changed the rule many more kids were entering the draft. Most of whom needed more physical growth, emotional growth and development of basketball skills. Sadly, NBA teams still drafted these kids, fearing that if they didn't they'd miss out on potential. It was a crap shoot to say the least.

I believe the NBA eventually changed the rule to save themselves from their own stupidity.

As Dave said above, players mature at different rates. At 18 Lebron was physically ready to start his NBA career but he was the exception, not the rule.

 

[Steat]

Win the Natty and they will come.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

The teams that drafted Kobe, Garnett, McGrady, Lebron, Chandler, Amare, and Dwight severely disagree with you.

Also, not to pile on - but Kobe is the only one on that list that has won a championship with the team that drafted him (if we're being generous, considering Kobe was drafted by the Hornets and then traded to LA). KG and LeBron have won titles as well - but not with the teams that drafted them.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Consensus, Best players don't always pan out either! Olowakandi and Sam Bouie aren't exactly household names, but everyone thought they were the best players available!

Brice will be a good 10-12 year pro and could be a great one with a little more strength and a little work on his shot. Late Lottery Dog! (13-15)