Cadeau needs to look to score more

[IDUNK4HEELS]

Even if Carolina continues to play 4 guards and one big it recently seems to me it is more like 5 vs 3 because neither Cadeau and the starting big seem not to even think about being part of the offense.

I am so surprised that Cadeau with his first quick step does not take more defenders to school and then when left wide open won’t take more perimeter shots. Even if he does not hit a ton of outside shots from the outside it will at least make his opponent play him straight instead of laying off of him daring him to shoot…

 

[NathanFielder]

This team is at its best when Cadeau contributes as a scorer. With the limitations with the bigs, you need to get some scoring somewhere. But his first priority is to limit his turnovers. His second priority is to defend without fouling. He also has a reality that he isn't a great 3 level scorer. He might be a capable finisher at the rim and a capable mid-range shooter. But neither are plus skills for him right now. And it looks like he doesn't have a ton of confidence in his 3PT shot right now.

 

[al would]

Even if Carolina continues to play 4 guards and one big it recently seems to me it is more like 5 vs 3 because neither Cadeau and the starting big seem not to even think about being part of the offense.

I am so surprised that Cadeau with his first quick step does not take more defenders to school and then when left wide open won’t take more perimeter shots. Even if he does not hit a ton of outside shots from the outside it will at least make his opponent play him straight instead of laying off of him daring him to shoot…

This group has some serious dysfunction and it's bad in 2 ways bigly. It leads to no focused offensive direction which in itself is bad for a pg (and everyone else) and I'm seriously afraid it will lead to some negative results and feedback recruiting wise with both pg's and true big men because with whatever this current scheme hubcap is attempting it displays incredibly poor use of both. jmo

 

[Kool1234567]

He can’t shoot….

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

Finally Cadeau went to the hole a ton which resulted in 12 points and 12 assists but to me it was interested he never went to the line and only took one shot from downtown. With the lack of proven scorers on this years team Cadeau MUST continue to look to score..

 

[notashelbyfan]

Finally Cadeau went to the hole a ton which resulted in 12 points and 12 assists but to me it was interested he never went to the line and only took one shot from downtown. With the lack of proven scorers on this years team Cadeau MUST continue to look to score..

He had 12 and 12 because we was playing a bad team.

He is not very good if he has to score to be effective, he would thrive on teams that need him to do nothing but be a PG.

 

[DaveChapelle]

It helps when our bigs actually catch the passes

 

[DSouthr]

OK, so there is this theory that even if a guy is a poor shooter, if he just takes the shot it is a positive. That if he just takes the shot it forces defenders to go to him? The other team leaves you wide open, they do because they have watched on film, that guy does not hit shots even left wide open to take them. Point that out to folks and they immediately want you to grab your calculator as they walk you once again thru the 3 is better than 2 calculations? LOL They tell me how simple it is, just hit 35% of your treys and it beats hitting 50% of those wasteful 2pt baskets. Nate has been trying to sell me that BS for years now, it's this thing called analytics, you know, where actual players are replaced by their being numbers, players are not people, they are position fillers. 1 is always going to be 1, 2 is always going to be 2, they never change, there is no difference between one 1 and another 1, 1 ALWAYS = 1.

Don't misunderstand me, there is absolutely great value in analytics but like anything else taken to an extreme becomes more harm than help. Should Cadeau be taking wide open jumpers from trey, 1 or 2 a game is fine but more than that, no but I am not in to trying to hammer square pegs in to round holes to begin with. Ya see, lost in all this shot taking talk is the simple part of actual shot making. Easy low hanging fruit example of this is our first half vs a soup can, hit what was it 12-15 from 2, hit 4-17 from 3?

Right now we are 83rd in the country in field goal % and 270th in 3pt %, where would we rank in over all field goal % if we didn't suck so bad trying to hit treys? When are we going to get back to the basics, it isn't about shot taking, it is about shot making and stopping the other team from making shots. It's about efficiency not volume. Treys should be taken by guys comfortable and confident in taking them when they have an open look and NOT by those NOT comfortable or confident taking them. I am about doing those things the defense does NOT want us to do rather than what they DO want us to do. Teams want Cadeau to shoot treys, they want JWit to shoot treys so why would I want those fellas doing what the defense wants them to do? But oh, I forgot, we are not dealing with actual humans are we, they are statistical place holders dating calculators right?

 

[alabamaheel]

OK, so there is this theory that even if a guy is a poor shooter, if he just takes the shot it is a positive. That if he just takes the shot it forces defenders to go to him? The other team leaves you wide open, they do because they have watched on film, that guy does not hit shots even left wide open to take them. Point that out to folks and they immediately want you to grab your calculator as they walk you once again thru the 3 is better than 2 calculations? LOL They tell me how simple it is, just hit 35% of your treys and it beats hitting 50% of those wasteful 2pt baskets. Nate has been trying to sell me that BS for years now, it's this thing called analytics, you know, where actual players are replaced by their being numbers, players are not people, they are position fillers. 1 is always going to be 1, 2 is always going to be 2, they never change, there is no difference between one 1 and another 1, 1 ALWAYS = 1.

Don't misunderstand me, there is absolutely great value in analytics but like anything else taken to an extreme becomes more harm than help. Should Cadeau be taking wide open jumpers from trey, 1 or 2 a game is fine but more than that, no but I am not in to trying to hammer square pegs in to round holes to begin with. Ya see, lost in all this shot taking talk is the simple part of actual shot making. Easy low hanging fruit example of this is our first half vs a soup can, hit what was it 12-15 from 2, hit 4-17 from 3?

Right now we are 83rd in the country in field goal % and 270th in 3pt %, where would we rank in over all field goal % if we didn't suck so bad trying to hit treys? When are we going to get back to the basics, it isn't about shot taking, it is about shot making and stopping the other team from making shots. It's about efficiency not volume. Treys should be taken by guys comfortable and confident in taking them when they have an open look and NOT by those NOT comfortable or confident taking them. I am about doing those things the defense does NOT want us to do rather than what they DO want us to do. Teams want Cadeau to shoot treys, they want JWit to shoot treys so why would I want those fellas doing what the defense wants them to do? But oh, I forgot, we are not dealing with actual humans are we, they are statistical place holders dating calculators right?

To answer a little of your last sentence or two, we don’t dictate anything with this team. We adjust to everyone else unfortunately. Our best teams that even had a shot at doing something great, made others adjust to what they were doing, Offensively and defensively.

 

[Archer2]

OK, so there is this theory that even if a guy is a poor shooter, if he just takes the shot it is a positive. That if he just takes the shot it forces defenders to go to him? The other team leaves you wide open, they do because they have watched on film, that guy does not hit shots even left wide open to take them. Point that out to folks and they immediately want you to grab your calculator as they walk you once again thru the 3 is better than 2 calculations?

Right now we are 83rd in the country in field goal % and 270th in 3pt %, where would we rank in over all field goal % if we didn't suck so bad trying to hit treys? When are we going to get back to the basics, it isn't about shot taking, it is about shot making and stopping the other team from making shots. It's about efficiency not volume. Treys should be taken by guys comfortable and confident in taking them when they have an open look and NOT by those NOT comfortable or confident taking them. I am about doing those things the defense does NOT want us to do rather than what they DO want us to do. Teams want Cadeau to shoot treys, they want JWit to shoot treys so why would I want those fellas doing what the defense wants them to do? But oh, I forgot, we are not dealing with actual humans are we, they are statistical place holders dating calculators right?

Can’t give you enough likes for this post.

We keep trying to fit square pegs into round holes, with the expected poor results, the definition of insanity. No apparent desire to play inside out, turning our bigs into nothing but screeners, endless east to west dribbling, lackluster defensive desire, predictable offense, very little multiplicity on defense, poor role definition, etc… What we are watching bears little resemblance to the Carolina basketball of the last six decades.

“Play, play smart, and play together”. This team’s play is the antithesis of that.

 

[NathanFielder]

OK, so there is this theory that even if a guy is a poor shooter, if he just takes the shot it is a positive. That if he just takes the shot it forces defenders to go to him? The other team leaves you wide open, they do because they have watched on film, that guy does not hit shots even left wide open to take them. Point that out to folks and they immediately want you to grab your calculator as they walk you once again thru the 3 is better than 2 calculations? LOL They tell me how simple it is, just hit 35% of your treys and it beats hitting 50% of those wasteful 2pt baskets. Nate has been trying to sell me that BS for years now, it's this thing called analytics, you know, where actual players are replaced by their being numbers, players are not people, they are position fillers. 1 is always going to be 1, 2 is always going to be 2, they never change, there is no difference between one 1 and another 1, 1 ALWAYS = 1.

Don't misunderstand me, there is absolutely great value in analytics but like anything else taken to an extreme becomes more harm than help. Should Cadeau be taking wide open jumpers from trey, 1 or 2 a game is fine but more than that, no but I am not in to trying to hammer square pegs in to round holes to begin with. Ya see, lost in all this shot taking talk is the simple part of actual shot making. Easy low hanging fruit example of this is our first half vs a soup can, hit what was it 12-15 from 2, hit 4-17 from 3?

Right now we are 83rd in the country in field goal % and 270th in 3pt %, where would we rank in over all field goal % if we didn't suck so bad trying to hit treys? When are we going to get back to the basics, it isn't about shot taking, it is about shot making and stopping the other team from making shots. It's about efficiency not volume. Treys should be taken by guys comfortable and confident in taking them when they have an open look and NOT by those NOT comfortable or confident taking them. I am about doing those things the defense does NOT want us to do rather than what they DO want us to do. Teams want Cadeau to shoot treys, they want JWit to shoot treys so why would I want those fellas doing what the defense wants them to do? But oh, I forgot, we are not dealing with actual humans are we, they are statistical place holders dating calculators right?

Apologies ahead of time for the essay:

I guess I'm confused at the criticism around UNC shooting so many 3s. I'm purely listing the statistical facts right now.
- UNC ranks 209th in the country in 3PT rate (3PT FGA / FGA) 38.3% of their FGAs are 3s.
- UNC ranks 24th in offensive efficiency per BartTorvik. Of the top 25 teams, UNC has the 6th lowest 3PT rate. So the best offenses in the country aren't shooting less 3s than UNC.

So I don't know how anyone can say this team shoots a ton of 3s. They look like they shoot a lot of 3s because they play at an extremely fast tempo (7th fastest in the country) and they miss a lot of 3s. So when you miss a lot of 3s, those are going to stand out.

If you think that they should play basketball like Roy's teams, then they would rank dead last in the country in 3PT rate many years. Although the Cam Johnson years, UNC was shooting 35, 36% of their shots from 3. But Roy's teams were always elite offensive rebounding teams. This team can't offensive rebound. They're not built that way so you want to fit that square peg in a round hole too? Double standard?

I also don't get where guys taking too many 3s is coming from... Cadeau and Seth are low volume shooters. Cadeau's confidence from 3 is shot so he's an unwilling shooter. The only 2 dudes who are taking a lot are RJ and Jackson. Everyone else on the roster is a selective, unconfident shooter. They may appear they shoot too much because they're losing by 20 in most of their games so you have to shoot some 3s to get back into the game.

And it's a really simplified way to say a 35% 3PT shooter should shoot a lot of 3s. For the record, I have consistently said FT's, layups/dunks, and 3s are the most efficient way to efficient offense. So you can certainly shoot 2s and 2s should certainly be part of your offense. But the 2s should be designed for layups/dunks and to draw fouls. You're much less likely to be fouled on 3s. I don't think I've ever said that you should blindly just shoot 3s.

I have typically said I want players shooting 3s instead of mid-range or long 2s. And I'll always stand by that. Hell, Elliot Cadeau has made 7/15 not at the rim 2s. That's a really small sample, but if he did that the entire season, he'd be one of the best mid-range 2pt shooters in the country. Assuming he isn't an elite level mid range shooter, even for Cadeau, I would prefer him shooting a 3 over shooting a long 2. I'm assuming he's a 30% 3PT shooter in reality and if that's the case it's strongly likely that over time will be a better and more efficient shot for him than a long 2.

On a macro level, this is what I know about UNC so far this season. They're pretty bad defensively. They're only pretty good at 1 thing defensively and that's 2PT defense. And even with that, they rank 80th in the country. So relative to other top 40 teams, they're probably either average or worse in every defensive metric across the board. They don't force any turnovers, they're not a great rebounding team, they don't defend the 3PT line at all and they allow opponents to shoot a ton of 3s while not defending them well. So do you think this team can simply out 2 teams when they can't defend, don't force turnovers, and don't defend the 3 while allowing a ton of 3PT attempts? I don't. Not against really good teams. I do think they will eventually have to shoot the ball with some precision from 3

If you or any other fan wants to get back to Roy's style of basketball. Then you will be fitting in square pegs in round holes like you're complaining about right now. You think this team can offensive rebound 40% of their misses? You think this team is good enough defensively to just out 2 teams? Roy's teams weren't elite defensively most of the time, but they were on another planet compared to this team.

So this team can't offensive rebound, doesn't have legitimate NBA talent with their bigs, and can't defend. If you combine those things, most of those teams will be dependent on making some 3s to neutralize those disadvantages. This team hasn't made those 3s so we're here. But there are a lot of fallacies being thrown around right now. This team doesn't shoot a thousand 3s a game. They shoot more than Roy's teams did 10 years ago but again, they're 209th in the country.

Sorry if UNC fans don't like this answer. But this is a 3PT dependent team if they wanted to do anything serious this season. They're not making enough 3s and the season has been a forgettable one in large part because of that. IMO, the answers aren't on this roster unless RJ, Cade, and Cadeau are more consistent in whatever 3PT opportunities they get.

 

[NathanFielder]

Also, from what I can gather from Hubert Davis' comments to the media, he either doesn't value analytics or doesn't know much about analytics. Again, just gathering from his comments and what people who cover him say. Andrew said he asked him in Maui (I believe it was Maui) what kind of analytics do you value? Andrew said that Hubert told him "assists to turnover ratio." Now, there's nothing wrong with assists to turnover ratio. That stat has a level of value to every coach in basketball I would imagine. That isn't an analytically driven statistic. So it leads me to think he's not a coach that values it much, or understands it much. If either is the case, IMO, that puts UNC at a coaching disadvantage in most of the games UNC plays in.

And unless you have a massive talent advantage, then it's hard to make up for that disadvantage consistently.

 

[NathanFielder]

Can’t give you enough likes for this post.

We keep trying to fit square pegs into round holes, with the expected poor results, the definition of insanity. No apparent desire to play inside out, turning our bigs into nothing but screeners, endless east to west dribbling, lackluster defensive desire, predictable offense, very little multiplicity on defense, poor role definition, etc… What we are watching bears little resemblance to the Carolina basketball of the last six decades.

“Play, play smart, and play together”. This team’s play is the antithesis of that.

I just disagree that this team is playing "Carolina basketball" away from being good. This team doesn't do the things that traditional UNC teams do well. They don't have an interior presence. They absolutely cannot offensive rebound. Those were 2 traditional weapons that could provide alternate offense if UNC wasn't shooting the ball well because they often had teams that weren't elite shooting teams. (Of course the elite shooting teams won 2 national championships and the elite shooting Cam Johnson teams probably maxed out their abilities had really good seasons. Not a coincidence.)

This team doesn't have the offensive rebounding weapon and certainly doesn't have a post presence offensively. It's a guard dependent team and most guard dependent teams will be somewhat reliant on making 3s, which this team hasn't done. They also aren't a ridiculously high volume 3PT shooting team. They rank 209th in 3PT rate. They just miss so many 3s and don't offensive rebound or force turnovers to get alternate ways of scoring.

If you changed this team to a traditional UNC team, I think that's an even bigger square peg in a round hole issue. First off, they're terrible defensively. So you think being 2PT reliant without the ability to offensive rebound will be enough to counter they're generally bad defense?

I just think Hubert had a couple of misses this season. He probably thought Cadeau would be most consistent and play like one of the elite PGs in the country in every game. He probably thought RJ would have similar efficiency to last year. And he definitely thought Jalen would be better. And I'm assuming he thought Cade would be better. It's a miss. All coaches have them. Roy Williams started Desmond Hubert over PJ Hairston in 2012-13. PJ Hairston led that team in scoring. It was a miss. The next season he started a lot of Joel James, Nate Britt, and I think Jackson Simmons even started a game. It was a miss.

Those teams had options on the roster to salvage some wins in a conference more competitive than this year's ACC. The question is are the solutions on this roster? I don't think this team can reinvent the wheel. RJ is going to have to make his open shots. Cadeau needs to be more consistent.