Draft Declarations in Hindsight

[UNC-75]

Ok, now that the NBA draft is over which college players who were on the fence in declaring do you see as making a great choice to go to the NBA and which players made the worst choice to enter the draft and now have screwed themselves when they should have stayed at least one more year?

How about Frank Jackson at pick 31? In retrospect should he have stayed another year?
How about Cameron Oliver, P.J. Dozier, Kobi Simmons, Isaiah Briscoe, Melo Trimble? Lots of guys going to summer league with scant little money guaranteed. Of course some will win out by going overseas or to the D-league (sorry Gatorade - it should be about development and not hydrating) and getting a chance down the road so I'm not looking for who didn't get drafted that declared but rather who screwed themselves up by drinking Kool Aid from some greedy handlers?

 

[RoseHeel]

Those who claimed Tony was making a bad decision or wouldn't be a first rounder turned out to be wrong after all.

Wasn't Melo Trimble was a first rounder as a freshman?

Briscoe, Dozier, and Simmons wasn't really unexpected to me.

 

[UNC-75]

Trimble is a very interesting case. Quite possibly a lottery choice after his freshman season. Normally I hate when guys go early unless a clear top 5 choice but in his case he would have had lots of money and a guarantee. He has a deal in place with the 76's but not sure how much money that's for other than the summer league attempt to impress.

 

[gary-7]

Ok, now that the NBA draft is over which college players who were on the fence in declaring do you see as making a great choice to go to the NBA and which players made the worst choice to enter the draft and now have screwed themselves when they should have stayed at least one more year?

How about Frank Jackson at pick 31? In retrospect should he have stayed another year?
How about Cameron Oliver, P.J. Dozier, Kobi Simmons, Isaiah Briscoe, Melo Trimble? Lots of guys going to summer league with scant little money guaranteed. Of course some will win out by going overseas or to the D-league (sorry Gatorade - it should be about development and not hydrating) and getting a chance down the road so I'm not looking for who didn't get drafted that declared but rather who screwed themselves up by drinking Kool Aid from some greedy handlers?

I'll just go at part of what is a very large question.

First, on Frank Jackson. He came in with a OAD mentality, but honestly, only his late-season shooting surge got him drafted.

In contrast, Simmons who also came in determined to be OAD, was just a bench Guard at AZ who didn't have much to show for his Freshman campaign. He was the topic of a lot of conversation down here coming out of HS and the consensus among those in he know was he was a bit delusional. His camp was convinced that a 6'5 athletic PG was an NBA shoo-in. Trouble is ya gotta do something on the court. Kobi needed more seasons in college at a program that would develop him. Frank would have likely benefitted from another season --- Kobi needed another.

Dozier is a good reference for Simmons in that he definitely needed another season. Now, he mostly played out of position at SC. Kid isn't quick enough or a good enough passer to be an NBA PG. He should have come back and played the 2 and with Thornwell gone, become the alpha scorer.

Briscoe was never gonna be drafted. 6'4 slashers who can't shoot a lick outside of 15 ft have little NBA future these days.

As for Melo, this was just a bad draft for him, as we've discussed. And ironically (as much as it pains me to say it) he would have done better coming out as a Freshman. He got the opportunity to burst out on the scene and (like Tyus Jones) that was likely his peak.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Those who claimed Tony was making a bad decision or wouldn't be a first rounder turned out to be wrong after all.

Wasn't Melo Trimble was a first rounder as a freshman?

Briscoe, Dozier, and Simmons wasn't really unexpected to me.

Count me in. Didn't see any way Tony would make the 1st round. Of course he has tons of potential but he was often "man handled" by college Bigs. Figured he needed at least another year to impress GMs.

 

[RoseHeel]

Count me in. Didn't see any way Tony would make the 1st round. Of course he has tons of potential but he was often "man handled" by college Bigs. Figured he needed at least another year to impress GMs.

I figured he had to have had some sort of guarantee for a 1st round pick worked out if he'd only leave for the 1st round. Between Coach and his closed knit circle, I couldn't imagine him taking bad info and risking the jump that close to the border line of the 2nd round without solid info.

Of course, the selfish part in me wanted to see him stay, make another deep run, and be drafted somewhere near Jackson next year, but when the money's there, you gotta take it.

 

[iwish]

Most people, myself included, thought Tony was a second round likelihood. The fact that he was selected in the late first round does not negate the fact that he would have almost certainly benefited from another year in school, enhancing his game and getting stronger. I wish him well, but my personal opinion is we will see him be a 12-15 min type guy putting up "meh" numbers.

 

[gauchoheel]

Most people, myself included, thought Tony was a second round likelihood. The fact that he was selected in the late first round does not negate the fact that he would have almost certainly benefited from another year in school, enhancing his game and getting stronger. I wish him well, but my personal opinion is we will see him be a 12-15 min type guy putting up "meh" numbers.

That's pretty likely no matter when he declares though. It's incredibly difficult to be an NBA starter. There's no saying for sure he develops any more in college than he would in the NBA. I'd take the million dollar salary to go along with the development, personally. He gets an 82 game schedule rather than 35, no classes or practice limits to worry about, and he'll actually be playing against the players that, you know, he'll have to learn how to outplay.

 

[JimmyinVA]

going pro now turned out to be a good decision for tony. but that doesn't mean returning to carolina for another year would have been a mistake. sometimes in life people have two good options -- win/win i.e. the road not taken is speculation, but it's not hard to imagine another year in college working out quite well for him -- first team all-acc, possible first team all american, high profile go-to player all year resulting in lucrative endorsement deals, higher draft position, etc etc. go or stay, it's all good.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Melo T is too small to be drafted high since he has no otherworldly skill. He would need to be lightning fast for example. Frank J probably just wanted to get out as fast as possible and who could blame a guy living in a rat hole? Like others have said, Tony snuck into the end of the first round so he didn't make a serious mistake. I still believe he would have been featured as a starter on a contending team and likely to be AA, All ACC, in the conversation for POY nods, and a possible top 5-10 pick next season. Therefore, returning would have been an investment not a mistake either!

It worked our for him and I am happy to see a Family member do well!

 

[iwish]

That's pretty likely no matter when he declares though. It's incredibly difficult to be an NBA starter. There's no saying for sure he develops any more in college than he would in the NBA. I'd take the million dollar salary to go along with the development, personally. He gets an 82 game schedule rather than 35, no classes or practice limits to worry about, and he'll actually be playing against the players that, you know, he'll have to learn how to outplay.

Gaucho (are you a UCSB alum, btw?), I follow your thought process. But Tony would have been a starter and seen plenty of minutes at UNC next year, not to mention the tourney experience. As a pro, he is unlikely to see much playing time initially - which means yes, he will have the money, but he won't get anywhere near the playing time and valuable growth. He will get pro coaching and better competition so he has that going for him I guess.

 

[UNC-75]

Anyone have an opinion whether Tripster would have been drafted? I think his decision to stay in school was likely a smart one in an attempt to rid the demons and show his basketball skills rather than his on court behavior problems. Of course, that implies he has learned how to control himself which is open for discussion.

As for Tony I agree it likely worked out for him and most likely proves he had some sort of backroom guarantee. Otherwise it could have been a huge mistake. I still he think he would have been the real deal and proven to be a top 10 pick next year but of course the injury concern is always in the background of any decision making unfortunately.

 

[GACMAN]

Risk v reward....take the money now or come back to UNC and try to move up. If he came back and moved into the Top 10, what he would have made Year 1 would probably be more than all 3 years combined with this contract! If I was confident in my abilities and in my PG's ability, then I would have come back. I think he left a lot of $$$$$$'s on the table with this move!

 

[iwish]

Maybe - in 2016 the 10th pick's contract value was $5.25m vs $4m for the 15th pick. The 28th was roughly $2.4m.

 

[gauchoheel]

Gaucho (are you a UCSB alum, btw?), I follow your thought process. But Tony would have been a starter and seen plenty of minutes at UNC next year, not to mention the tourney experience. As a pro, he is unlikely to see much playing time initially - which means yes, he will have the money, but he won't get anywhere near the playing time and valuable growth. He will get pro coaching and better competition so he has that going for him I guess.

Yep I am! UCSB undergrad and now UNC for grad school. Sad to see Bob Williams go, but I think it was time.

Maybe - in 2016 the 10th pick's contract value was $5.25m vs $4m for the 15th pick. The 28th was roughly $2.4m.

Consider two other things with the money though:

1. He gets to free agency a year earlier this way, assuming he can become good enough to warrant a second contract that usually means a huge raise.
2. Diminishing marginal utility of money: Assuming the money is managed well, the $2 million contract is much more important than say going up from $2 million to $4 million (by moving up in the draft). In this sort of scenario where the reward is so great to go in the first round at all I think it's hard to argue (financially) waiting a year with the hopes of moving up to the lottery.

 

[UNC-75]

Well, let's look at this another way. Tony's draft position being #28 suggests he will get around 1 million a year for the first two years guaranteed if I read this correctly. An average new grad from UNC will make around 50K for the first year and probably will max out after 20 years at 100K (average - you future CEOs, MD, lawyers, and Hollywood stars excluded). So if a grad averages 75K over those 20 years he or she earns 1.5 million. Putting 10% of your money into investments (that's nearly impossible to do with school loans, living expenses) with compounding earns you another 200K for a total of 1.7 million earning over those 20 years. Remember, that assumes you save 10% of your income and invest it to make 5% return a year (certainly not a given).

Compare that with Tony who will earn at least 2 million over the first two years and assume for this argument he doesn't make a dime more and works not another day. He invests 90% of his money (I think without school loans he can live off of $100,000 if he wanted to) in those first two years compounding gives him in 20 years 29 million of earnings. Of course, I'm ignoring taxes on both groups which significantly alters the findings and would lessen the difference since Tony is in a higher tax bracket the first two years and he would therefor not be able to invest it all. So let's change Tony's earnings to only 1/2 to pay Uncle Sam his share (could be more if the tax burden is lowered as predicted). That lowers his income to 1/2 million for each of his two years totaling 1 million and investing in a likewise fashion still allows for a total earnings of 15 million for the 20 years. Now compare that to the normal recent UNC grad (and don't even figure taxes on this end).

So Tony will make in 2 years makes 15 million and the rest of us make 1.7 million. Hard to say Tony made a bad choice here. Of course don't get my calculator going should he have stayed in school one more year, made nothing this year, be a top 10 pick next year. He obviously would then be leaving money on the table in a big way considering the 10th pick this year is projected to make double what Tony is making.

Lesson here is obvious. Make as much money as you can early on and invest as much as you can as early as you can. That and grow into a 6 ft 11 inch man with a 7 ft 5 inch wingspan who can dunk at ease and gets introduced to the game of basketball at an early age.

 

[All_Heel]

Yep I am! UCSB undergrad and now UNC for grad school. Sad to see Bob Williams go, but I think it was time.



Consider two other things with the money though:

1. He gets to free agency a year earlier this way, assuming he can become good enough to warrant a second contract that usually means a huge raise.
2. Diminishing marginal utility of money: Assuming the money is managed well, the $2 million contract is much more important than say going up from $2 million to $4 million (by moving up in the draft). In this sort of scenario where the reward is so great to go in the first round at all I think it's hard to argue (financially) waiting a year with the hopes of moving up to the lottery.

Aren't you glad you aren't a Banana Slug Heel?

 

[gauchoheel]

Aren't you glad you aren't a Banana Slug Heel?

Hahaha. Could have been an AnteaterHeel or a TritonHeel!! So many cool names in the UC system.

 

[gauchoheel]

Well, let's look at this another way. Tony's draft position being #28 suggests he will get around 1 million a year for the first two years guaranteed if I read this correctly. An average new grad from UNC will make around 50K for the first year and probably will max out after 20 years at 100K (average - you future CEOs, MD, lawyers, and Hollywood stars excluded). So if a grad averages 75K over those 20 years he or she earns 1.5 million. Putting 10% of your money into investments (that's nearly impossible to do with school loans, living expenses) with compounding earns you another 200K for a total of 1.7 million earning over those 20 years. Remember, that assumes you save 10% of your income and invest it to make 5% return a year (certainly not a given).

Compare that with Tony who will earn at least 2 million over the first two years and assume for this argument he doesn't make a dime more and works not another day. He invests 90% of his money (I think without school loans he can live off of $100,000 if he wanted to) in those first two years compounding gives him in 20 years 29 million of earnings. Of course, I'm ignoring taxes on both groups which significantly alters the findings and would lessen the difference since Tony is in a higher tax bracket the first two years and he would therefor not be able to invest it all. So let's change Tony's earnings to only 1/2 to pay Uncle Sam his share (could be more if the tax burden is lowered as predicted). That lowers his income to 1/2 million for each of his two years totaling 1 million and investing in a likewise fashion still allows for a total earnings of 15 million for the 20 years. Now compare that to the normal recent UNC grad (and don't even figure taxes on this end).

So Tony will make in 2 years makes 15 million and the rest of us make 1.7 million. Hard to say Tony made a bad choice here. Of course don't get my calculator going should he have stayed in school one more year, made nothing this year, be a top 10 pick next year. He obviously would then be leaving money on the table in a big way considering the 10th pick this year is projected to make double what Tony is making.

Lesson here is obvious. Make as much money as you can early on and invest as much as you can as early as you can. That and grow into a 6 ft 11 inch man with a 7 ft 5 inch wingspan who can dunk at ease and gets introduced to the game of basketball at an early age.

Amen to that. And while the final calculation is pretty complicated, the bottomline is the Risk vs Reward means financially it is a no-brainer to go if you know you're in the first round. Even if he only makes $2 million and nothing more, if he just saves $1 million of it (which he certainly could, although most players don't), he can draw 4% off that forever (look up the Trinity study: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study). Tony could never work again and have a $40k per year income forever adjusted for inflation. He's set for life essentially as long as he lives modestly.

 

[iwish]

Well, let's look at this another way. Tony's draft position being #28 suggests he will get around 1 million a year for the first two years guaranteed if I read this correctly. An average new grad from UNC will make around 50K for the first year and probably will max out after 20 years at 100K (average - you future CEOs, MD, lawyers, and Hollywood stars excluded). So if a grad averages 75K over those 20 years he or she earns 1.5 million. Putting 10% of your money into investments (that's nearly impossible to do with school loans, living expenses) with compounding earns you another 200K for a total of 1.7 million earning over those 20 years. Remember, that assumes you save 10% of your income and invest it to make 5% return a year (certainly not a given).

Compare that with Tony who will earn at least 2 million over the first two years and assume for this argument he doesn't make a dime more and works not another day. He invests 90% of his money (I think without school loans he can live off of $100,000 if he wanted to) in those first two years compounding gives him in 20 years 29 million of earnings. Of course, I'm ignoring taxes on both groups which significantly alters the findings and would lessen the difference since Tony is in a higher tax bracket the first two years and he would therefor not be able to invest it all. So let's change Tony's earnings to only 1/2 to pay Uncle Sam his share (could be more if the tax burden is lowered as predicted). That lowers his income to 1/2 million for each of his two years totaling 1 million and investing in a likewise fashion still allows for a total earnings of 15 million for the 20 years. Now compare that to the normal recent UNC grad (and don't even figure taxes on this end).

So Tony will make in 2 years makes 15 million and the rest of us make 1.7 million. Hard to say Tony made a bad choice here. Of course don't get my calculator going should he have stayed in school one more year, made nothing this year, be a top 10 pick next year. He obviously would then be leaving money on the table in a big way considering the 10th pick this year is projected to make double what Tony is making.

Lesson here is obvious. Make as much money as you can early on and invest as much as you can as early as you can. That and grow into a 6 ft 11 inch man with a 7 ft 5 inch wingspan who can dunk at ease and gets introduced to the game of basketball at an early age.

Ha, I like your optimism........let's not forget a little thing called taxes, and there is NO WAY any NBA'er at the age of 19-21 is going to just live off of $100k and invest 90% of that. But, there is always an exception....

And I think, while your point is an interesting one, it is off of what I was trying to say - which is he is giving up $1.5m+ if you assume by waiting one more year he would become a top 15 pick (oh, and have some more fun being a young man in college playing basketball for the Tar Heels).

All moot - he is a first round draft pick, that's a fact.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Amen to that. And while the final calculation is pretty complicated, the bottomline is the Risk vs Reward means financially it is a no-brainer to go if you know you're in the first round. Even if he only makes $2 million and nothing more, if he just saves $1 million of it (which he certainly could, although most players don't), he can draw 4% off that forever (look up the Trinity study: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study). Tony could never work again and have a $40k per year income forever adjusted for inflation. He's set for life essentially as long as he lives modestly.

I agree with the premise, however the 4% withdrawal rate isn't safe/sustainable "forever". That study and the 4% rule in general are meant to be sustainable for 30 years. Which is "forever" for your typical retiree at 65, but it would only get Tony to age 50. That, and the 40k is before taxes btw.

But yes, Tony almost certainly made the right financial decision.

 

[iwish]

Yep I am! UCSB undergrad and now UNC for grad school. Sad to see Bob Williams go, but I think it was time.

UCSB grad myself.....Isla Vista for two years, RA at the Fontainebleu for two (aging myself - not even sure if it is still there).

 

[trestyles]

Those who claimed Tony was making a bad decision or wouldn't be a first rounder turned out to be wrong after all.

Wasn't Melo Trimble was a first rounder as a freshman?

Yes!!! Think he don't regret coming back?

 

[trestyles]

I was saying on this board tony will be OAD before the season. He the type of bigs the NBA like these days. He just didn't have "hype" lik some players. *coughs* dook *coughs*

 

[Steat]

Put Tony in a Duke uniform and many oipinions would be opposite. Never fails.

 

[UNC-75]

Well, now that we have established that Tony made the correct economic decision, I can point out an interesting twist in this argument that as all can see I initially tried to make with mathematics. What is the life of a college student worth? I can tell you personally that I graduated from UNC in 3 years to pursue my future goals. Those goals are not important for this discussion. What is important is that I truly miss that one year I gave up and would honestly trade a year or two of past earnings to enjoy the life of a college student especially at UNC. Don't think I have thought about going back for a year or a summer session in an attempt to make up for that lost year that I left my roommates, friends, and dating relationships behind before I entered the real stressful world. Yes, I made out on the deal economically. But I still miss that year that I gave up thinking it would be the best for me. That is one of the reasons I have been consistent throughout the years about most of these guys staying in school. But the financial argument for the athletes is hard to ignore and thus the reason for my recent post.

Thank you all for being my psychologist and letting me vent. Go Heels!

 

[gauchoheel]

I agree with the premise, however the 4% withdrawal rate isn't safe/sustainable "forever". That study and the 4% rule in general are meant to be sustainable for 30 years. Which is "forever" for your typical retiree at 65, but it would only get Tony to age 50. That, and the 40k is before taxes btw.

But yes, Tony almost certainly made the right financial decision.

Good points. I think the Trinity study points to like a 95% success rate over 30 years with a SWR rate. However, even with a 60 year window, as long as you are flexible to draw say 3% in down years or go back to work for a year or two (which Tony could certainly do) you are pretty much set. Also, it's true I didn't count the taxes on investments, although those tax rates are significantly lower anyway.

UCSB grad myself.....Isla Vista for two years, RA at the Fontainebleu for two (aging myself - not even sure if it is still there).

Nice! Fountainebleu is still there, or at least it was a few years ago. I went to a junior college first, so only had two years in SB. One in San Rafael, and then senior year on DP.

Well, now that we have established that Tony made the correct economic decision, I can point out an interesting twist in this argument that as all can see I initially tried to make with mathematics. What is the life of a college student worth? I can tell you personally that I graduated from UNC in 3 years to pursue my future goals. Those goals are not important for this discussion. What is important is that I truly miss that one year I gave up and would honestly trade a year or two of past earnings to enjoy the life of a college student especially at UNC. Don't think I have thought about going back for a year or a summer session in an attempt to make up for that lost year that I left my roommates, friends, and dating relationships behind before I entered the real stressful world. Yes, I made out on the deal economically. But I still miss that year that I gave up thinking it would be the best for me. That is one of the reasons I have been consistent throughout the years about most of these guys staying in school. But the financial argument for the athletes is hard to ignore and thus the reason for my recent post.

Thank you all for being my psychologist and letting me vent. Go Heels!

This is all fair but there are many counterpoints too. I took five years in college and wish I'd have done it quicker. Also, you may be willing to give up a year's salary for a year in college, but I'd guess your salary is nowhere near Tony's. Would you give up $2 million for it? Heck, would you give up $2 million before you even had it yet? There are no guarantees, but if someone told him they were taking him in the first it's tough to turn down. Also, while you may have missed some of college (in lieu of what I assume was an office job), it's a bit different than going to the NBA. I would bet that is going to be a blast too.

Ultimately, unless my family were wealthy (and they're not) I can't imagine turning down that kind of money for any type of experience. The opportunity to pay off my parent's debt and get them a house... Imagine passing that up so that I could experience another year in college? I just couldn't, it would have to be because I thought staying in college would set me up even better financially. Granted some of these kids' families are much richer than mine, but a lot of them are poor too. To me the life-changing amount of money that awaits in the NBA would overrule just about anything else. I think it's the same for most of these guys too.