If you're asking do two football programs dominate the recruiting like Duke/Kentucky do in basketball, the answer is no. But at the same time, you can typically pick who will have the Top 5 or Top 10 classes in a given year. But yes, while each sport has its blue bloods, the cast of characters does change more in football if you're looking at the Top 10 team classes for a recruiting cycle. And, in general, with the exception of UGA's 2018 class (this current cycle) and the past 2-3 Ohio State classes, typically the best talent (5*s and 4*s) are shared among 20-30 programs. Yes, Bama and Ohio State a few others get the bulk of the talent, but it's not at all unusual for a random school like Maryland or Kansas or Colorado to land a 5* recruit in any given class.
The dynamics are different in the two sports because of the following (IMO):
- Lack of "top end" talent in basketball, relative to football. Each basketball recruiting cycle, there's basically, what, 10-15 truly elite players? And even that number might be high. Duke/Kentucky/Kansas gets the bulk of those. This is just not the case in football. If you're ranked in the Rivals Top 250, you're a ballplayer and have every opportunity to turn into a stud (All-American, NFL 1st-2nd round pick). Obviously, football has more positions than basketball, so there's more opportunity for guys to find their niche position
- Because of the first bullet point, football recruiting is much, much more regional than basketball recruiting. In general, proximity to home isn't a big factor for the elite basketball recruits (unless they already live near Duke or UNC or Kansas or wherever). In football, it's a much bigger factor and can be utilized by less than stellar programs. It's one of the reasons why UNC is able to get its fair share of 4* guys in football... because they're already from North Carolina or Virginia or Georgia and want to play for a program that's within driving distance. That's not the case for every football player obviously, and some of the elite programs like Alabama and Ohio State recruit nationally for some guys, but still, a big emphasis is put on recruiting in your state or in your region. And this helps a bigger array of programs haul in good talent.... rather than just Duke/Kentucky getting it all in basketball
- Basketball is based off individuality and building your personal brand. Football is much less about that. Look at how the NBA markets itself vs. how the NFL markets itself. NBA is all about individual star power... the "big names." Star power is important in the NFL but much less so. In football, it's about the "team" and the "stadium atmosphere" and stuff. This trickles down to college and is exacerbated by the OAD rule. Guys who only plan on playing for 1 or 2 years want to go somewhere they can maximize their brand. Thus, they wanna go to Duke or Kentucky or another blue blood because those schools are on TV the most.
That's my take.