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Evaluating the roster at the end of the regular season

gauchoheel

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Jul 29, 2016
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TL;DR is there's plenty to criticize Hubert about, but this is also a very flawed roster. We need to drastically retool the team if we're going to be top 25-caliber next year, as we have holes at every position. The key will be if we can reload quickly, and I expect no less than 2 transfer starters next year, potentially up to 4. It's not what we'd like but there's not enough talent on the bench, and there's precedent for this (e.g., K-State has 5 transfer starters and is ranked). Without a talent infusion next year will not be better.

Why are we underachieving? Three big things we thought at the beginning of the year simply aren't true:

  1. Caleb Love would be an All-ACC guard
  2. Pete Nance was a really good player and could replace much of Manek's contributions
  3. Puff, Styles, Dunn, Trimble, and Washington made for a solid, potentially deep bench
Evaluating the roster:

Guards

Davis
: talented scorer but a very limited player. He's not big/athletic enough to guard nearly anyone, making him a considerably worse player than other talented small scorers. He's also not a great passer or dribble penetrator, making him sub-ideal to lead the offense. That means he's best off-ball offensively, but that only works if you have a big point guard that can defend. Love is not that, and neither are most true point guards. So you're left either running out a super small set of guards that can't defend or playing RJ with another off-ball guy and struggling to initiate the offense. Hopefully we can find someone to meet the two way need here next year to pair with Davis.

Love: has lots of talent, but not a winning player because he doesn't have the decision making nor ability to improve his game very much. Can probably shoot if he cleans up his shot selection, but handle is loose and needs lots of spacing to penetrate. This worked a lot better when you have Manek creating spacing; this year (and his freshman year) the lane is often clogged due to lack of shooting threats and he struggles. On top of that his defensive technique is terrible, and effort is inconsistent. I expect he will move on after the season, wherever that leads.

Trimble: it's hard to imagine struggling more than he has offensively this year. I'll compare him to another disappointing top 50 point guard with lots of athleticism.

  1. Trimble: 6.9 points per 40 minutes, .472/.167/.548 shooting line, 1 three made all season, 2.5 / 2.4 A/TO per 40, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 315 total minutes
  2. Seventh Woods: 7.9 points per 40 minutes, .306/.167/.610 shooting line, 2 threes made all season, 6.3 / 5.4 A/TO per 40, 7.1 rebounds and 2.7 steals per 40. 309 total minutes
Seventh really struggled to score from two and turned the ball over, which at least Trimble's avoided. But even Seventh was able to score more often and showed a lot more passing ability. He also popped much more athletically, with more than twice as many rebounds and triple the steal rate. It's early, but I just really don't see much with Trimble. He's got a long way to go to even be an adequate reserve, and I think expectations need to come down. He's not starting next season.

Dunn: Similar to Trimble, I think we need to lower expectations. Dunn has hit a few threes, and that's about it. People might want to compare him to Kenny Williams as a low usage, limited athlete 3 and D guy. So far though Dunn is pretty far off what Kenny achieved his first two seasons:

  1. Dunn: 10.1 points per 40, .476/.283/.636 shooting line, 1.4/ 1.4 A/TO per 40, 2.7 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 341 total minutes
  2. Williams (first two seasons, approximate avgs): 10 points per 40, .558/.301/.694 shooting line, 3.4 / 1.7 A/TO per 40, 5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per 40. 739 total minutes
There's not a single stat that Dunn equals Williams at except for total points, and he doesn't have Kenny's defensive reputation. He's a limited player who hopefully can further improve his shooting to where he's reliable there and can be a shooter off the bench for us.

Wings

Leaky
: Have heard a lot of people say he's the least of our problems; while Leaky's defense deserves all the praise it gets, his (and the rest of the wings') lack of offense is making it much harder on the other players. Bacot gets doubled even before the catch, and wings dig hard on every Davis/Love drive. You can't really afford to have multiple non-scorers playing at the same time, but this unfortunately describes too many of our players. We've had recent successful low usage players like the aforementioned Kenny Williams or Theo Pinson, but they both brought some offensive skill to the table.

Kenny could shoot, which spaced the floor for others, and averaged almost 15 points per 40 minutes in his best season. Theo was a good ball handler who could pass, averaging a PG-like 6.3 assists per 40 for his career and almost 14 points per 40 as a senior. Leaky has never even averaged 10 points per 40, is under 30% from three this year and for his career, and is down to 3.2 assists per 40 for his career, falling to under 2 this year. It's one thing to be limited on offense, but it's another still to not add much value at all there. That pretty much negates all his positive defensive value.

Nance: more of a big, but fits in this section. Unfortunately Nance's SR year at Northwestern seems to be mostly empty calorie stats on a bad team, as he's been underwhelming. Doesn't really space the floor, shooting under 50% from 2, low rebounding numbers for a hybrid big, assists have been cut in half from last year, and not strong/quick enough to be a defensive plus. Not providing spacing has been killer for our offense compared to Brady, and he's not making up for it on the defensive end.

Puff: three seasons in, Puff has dealt with a lot of injuries but I think we can safely conclude he's a role player at the ACC level. 11.2 career points per 40 minutes and a 26% career 3-pt shooter whose not a great rebounder and is a foul machine, he doesn't stand out on either end. He rarely looks horrible, but is not a scorer and doesn't excel on defense either on-ball or off-ball.

Styles / Nickel: hard to say with these two as they've gotten so little time. Thing is though, when the rest of your wings aren't great their lack of time likely portends really poorly. If they were better they'd be getting run. Styles doesn't have offensive skills for this level and his negative 6.5 BPM in his very limited minutes is about as bad as you'll see. NIckel looks fine offensively, but i can only assume gets blown by all the time in practice to make Hubert think he's mostly unplayable defensively.

Bigs

Bacot: clearly our best player. Offensive and rebounding stud. He holds his own but is not terrific defensively, due to lack of foot speed and leaping ability mostly.

Washington: showed some flashes as a scorer, though not gotten many minutes. Comparing Wash to some recent UNC centers as freshman:

  1. Washington: 15.9 points per 40, .571 2-pt %, .647 FT %, 9.3 RB per 40, 0.4 blocks per 40
  2. Bacot: 15.7 points per 40, .469 2-pt %, .645 FT %, 13.5 RB per 40, 1.8 blocks per 40
  3. Garrison Brooks: 12.4 points per 40, .528 2-pt %, .587 FT %, 9.5 RB per 40, 0.8 blocks per 40
  4. Kennedy Meeks: 18.6 points per 40, .548 2-pt %, .586 FT %, 14.9 RB per 40, 1.9 blocks per 40
There's clearly offensive skill there, as Washington has the best shooting of the bunch. The concern is the rebounding and defense, where he's the worst of the group by far, and Brooks was a bit undersized to play center. We don't know the extent that injuries are continuing to limit Washington's explosiveness, but there's a danger of similar issues as RJ Davis. It's possible Washington may struggle to find a position if he's not actually a center, but also not quick enough to defend 4s on the wing. You can't afford to have a center provide so little rim protection. Nonetheless, Washington is showing the most promise of the young players and the only one who really profiles as a potential starter in the future.

Overall

If you read all that you can see that we really only have one player without major flaws, so it shouldn't be too surprising we're a bubble team. The roster is simply deficient relative to Carolina standards: we have a thin group of guards that can't defend, no offensive talent on the wing, and no solid bigs behind Armando.

Next year

We have High and Wilcher coming in. Wilcher could be Coby White, I really have no idea, but the #30 recruit in the class is not typically a hugely impactful player as a freshman. I expect at least one of Cadeau/Jackson to reclass, both because we have little offensive talent and because reclass rumors tend to turn into actual reclasses. So one of them could be starting alongside Davis, though I think absent them being fully ready we need a top flight lead ball handler to relieve Davis of PG duties and a two way wing (potentially two... who is starting there next year?). That's assuming Davis and Bacot return. If not we need a starting center to pair with Washington (who could have more injuries or otherwise not be fully ready) and potentially another guard/wing.
 
TL;DR is there's plenty to criticize Hubert about, but this is also a very flawed roster. We need to drastically retool the team if we're going to be top 25-caliber next year, as we have holes at every position. The key will be if we can reload quickly, and I expect no less than 2 transfer starters next year, potentially up to 4. It's not what we'd like but there's not enough talent on the bench, and there's precedent for this (e.g., K-State has 5 transfer starters and is ranked). Without a talent infusion next year will not be better.

Why are we underachieving? Three big things we thought at the beginning of the year simply aren't true:

  1. Caleb Love would be an All-ACC guard
  2. Pete Nance was a really good player and could replace much of Manek's contributions
  3. Puff, Styles, Dunn, Trimble, and Washington made for a solid, potentially deep bench
Evaluating the roster:

Guards

Davis
: talented scorer but a very limited player. He's not big/athletic enough to guard nearly anyone, making him a considerably worse player than other talented small scorers. He's also not a great passer or dribble penetrator, making him sub-ideal to lead the offense. That means he's best off-ball offensively, but that only works if you have a big point guard that can defend. Love is not that, and neither are most true point guards. So you're left either running out a super small set of guards that can't defend or playing RJ with another off-ball guy and struggling to initiate the offense. Hopefully we can find someone to meet the two way need here next year to pair with Davis.

Love: has lots of talent, but not a winning player because he doesn't have the decision making nor ability to improve his game very much. Can probably shoot if he cleans up his shot selection, but handle is loose and needs lots of spacing to penetrate. This worked a lot better when you have Manek creating spacing; this year (and his freshman year) the lane is often clogged due to lack of shooting threats and he struggles. On top of that his defensive technique is terrible, and effort is inconsistent. I expect he will move on after the season, wherever that leads.

Trimble: it's hard to imagine struggling more than he has offensively this year. I'll compare him to another disappointing top 50 point guard with lots of athleticism.

  1. Trimble: 6.9 points per 40 minutes, .472/.167/.548 shooting line, 1 three made all season, 2.5 / 2.4 A/TO per 40, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 315 total minutes
  2. Seventh Woods: 7.9 points per 40 minutes, .306/.167/.610 shooting line, 2 threes made all season, 6.3 / 5.4 A/TO per 40, 7.1 rebounds and 2.7 steals per 40. 309 total minutes
Seventh really struggled to score from two and turned the ball over, which at least Trimble's avoided. But even Seventh was able to score more often and showed a lot more passing ability. He also popped much more athletically, with more than twice as many rebounds and triple the steal rate. It's early, but I just really don't see much with Trimble. He's got a long way to go to even be an adequate reserve, and I think expectations need to come down. He's not starting next season.

Dunn: Similar to Trimble, I think we need to lower expectations. Dunn has hit a few threes, and that's about it. People might want to compare him to Kenny Williams as a low usage, limited athlete 3 and D guy. So far though Dunn is pretty far off what Kenny achieved his first two seasons:

  1. Dunn: 10.1 points per 40, .476/.283/.636 shooting line, 1.4/ 1.4 A/TO per 40, 2.7 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 341 total minutes
  2. Williams (first two seasons, approximate avgs): 10 points per 40, .558/.301/.694 shooting line, 3.4 / 1.7 A/TO per 40, 5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per 40. 739 total minutes
There's not a single stat that Dunn equals Williams at except for total points, and he doesn't have Kenny's defensive reputation. He's a limited player who hopefully can further improve his shooting to where he's reliable there and can be a shooter off the bench for us.

Wings

Leaky
: Have heard a lot of people say he's the least of our problems; while Leaky's defense deserves all the praise it gets, his (and the rest of the wings') lack of offense is making it much harder on the other players. Bacot gets doubled even before the catch, and wings dig hard on every Davis/Love drive. You can't really afford to have multiple non-scorers playing at the same time, but this unfortunately describes too many of our players. We've had recent successful low usage players like the aforementioned Kenny Williams or Theo Pinson, but they both brought some offensive skill to the table.

Kenny could shoot, which spaced the floor for others, and averaged almost 15 points per 40 minutes in his best season. Theo was a good ball handler who could pass, averaging a PG-like 6.3 assists per 40 for his career and almost 14 points per 40 as a senior. Leaky has never even averaged 10 points per 40, is under 30% from three this year and for his career, and is down to 3.2 assists per 40 for his career, falling to under 2 this year. It's one thing to be limited on offense, but it's another still to not add much value at all there. That pretty much negates all his positive defensive value.

Nance: more of a big, but fits in this section. Unfortunately Nance's SR year at Northwestern seems to be mostly empty calorie stats on a bad team, as he's been underwhelming. Doesn't really space the floor, shooting under 50% from 2, low rebounding numbers for a hybrid big, assists have been cut in half from last year, and not strong/quick enough to be a defensive plus. Not providing spacing has been killer for our offense compared to Brady, and he's not making up for it on the defensive end.

Puff: three seasons in, Puff has dealt with a lot of injuries but I think we can safely conclude he's a role player at the ACC level. 11.2 career points per 40 minutes and a 26% career 3-pt shooter whose not a great rebounder and is a foul machine, he doesn't stand out on either end. He rarely looks horrible, but is not a scorer and doesn't excel on defense either on-ball or off-ball.

Styles / Nickel: hard to say with these two as they've gotten so little time. Thing is though, when the rest of your wings aren't great their lack of time likely portends really poorly. If they were better they'd be getting run. Styles doesn't have offensive skills for this level and his negative 6.5 BPM in his very limited minutes is about as bad as you'll see. NIckel looks fine offensively, but i can only assume gets blown by all the time in practice to make Hubert think he's mostly unplayable defensively.

Bigs

Bacot: clearly our best player. Offensive and rebounding stud. He holds his own but is not terrific defensively, due to lack of foot speed and leaping ability mostly.

Washington: showed some flashes as a scorer, though not gotten many minutes. Comparing Wash to some recent UNC centers as freshman:

  1. Washington: 15.9 points per 40, .571 2-pt %, .647 FT %, 9.3 RB per 40, 0.4 blocks per 40
  2. Bacot: 15.7 points per 40, .469 2-pt %, .645 FT %, 13.5 RB per 40, 1.8 blocks per 40
  3. Garrison Brooks: 12.4 points per 40, .528 2-pt %, .587 FT %, 9.5 RB per 40, 0.8 blocks per 40
  4. Kennedy Meeks: 18.6 points per 40, .548 2-pt %, .586 FT %, 14.9 RB per 40, 1.9 blocks per 40
There's clearly offensive skill there, as Washington has the best shooting of the bunch. The concern is the rebounding and defense, where he's the worst of the group by far, and Brooks was a bit undersized to play center. We don't know the extent that injuries are continuing to limit Washington's explosiveness, but there's a danger of similar issues as RJ Davis. It's possible Washington may struggle to find a position if he's not actually a center, but also not quick enough to defend 4s on the wing. You can't afford to have a center provide so little rim protection. Nonetheless, Washington is showing the most promise of the young players and the only one who really profiles as a potential starter in the future.

Overall

If you read all that you can see that we really only have one player without major flaws, so it shouldn't be too surprising we're a bubble team. The roster is simply deficient relative to Carolina standards: we have a thin group of guards that can't defend, no offensive talent on the wing, and no solid bigs behind Armando.

Next year

We have High and Wilcher coming in. Wilcher could be Coby White, I really have no idea, but the #30 recruit in the class is not typically a hugely impactful player as a freshman. I expect at least one of Cadeau/Jackson to reclass, both because we have little offensive talent and because reclass rumors tend to turn into actual reclasses. So one of them could be starting alongside Davis, though I think absent them being fully ready we need a top flight lead ball handler to relieve Davis of PG duties and a two way wing (potentially two... who is starting there next year?). That's assuming Davis and Bacot return. If not we need a starting center to pair with Washington (who could have more injuries or otherwise not be fully ready) and potentially another guard/wing.
Fantastic review. Thanks for doing all that work.

I rate RJ higher, but basically agree with the rest.
 
The elephant in the room is Love. What does Hubert do with him if he wants to return? Hubert did not have the guts to rein him in this year and it was a detriment to the team. If he comes back he likely starts, plays the same way and gets 35+ mpg trying to audition for the NBA.

So, what does Hubert do about Love? Does he ask him to look elsewhere. That seems very unlike Hubert based on what we know about him.
 
TL;DR is there's plenty to criticize Hubert about, but this is also a very flawed roster. We need to drastically retool the team if we're going to be top 25-caliber next year, as we have holes at every position. The key will be if we can reload quickly, and I expect no less than 2 transfer starters next year, potentially up to 4. It's not what we'd like but there's not enough talent on the bench, and there's precedent for this (e.g., K-State has 5 transfer starters and is ranked). Without a talent infusion next year will not be better.

Why are we underachieving? Three big things we thought at the beginning of the year simply aren't true:

  1. Caleb Love would be an All-ACC guard
  2. Pete Nance was a really good player and could replace much of Manek's contributions
  3. Puff, Styles, Dunn, Trimble, and Washington made for a solid, potentially deep bench
Evaluating the roster:

Guards

Davis
: talented scorer but a very limited player. He's not big/athletic enough to guard nearly anyone, making him a considerably worse player than other talented small scorers. He's also not a great passer or dribble penetrator, making him sub-ideal to lead the offense. That means he's best off-ball offensively, but that only works if you have a big point guard that can defend. Love is not that, and neither are most true point guards. So you're left either running out a super small set of guards that can't defend or playing RJ with another off-ball guy and struggling to initiate the offense. Hopefully we can find someone to meet the two way need here next year to pair with Davis.

Love: has lots of talent, but not a winning player because he doesn't have the decision making nor ability to improve his game very much. Can probably shoot if he cleans up his shot selection, but handle is loose and needs lots of spacing to penetrate. This worked a lot better when you have Manek creating spacing; this year (and his freshman year) the lane is often clogged due to lack of shooting threats and he struggles. On top of that his defensive technique is terrible, and effort is inconsistent. I expect he will move on after the season, wherever that leads.

Trimble: it's hard to imagine struggling more than he has offensively this year. I'll compare him to another disappointing top 50 point guard with lots of athleticism.

  1. Trimble: 6.9 points per 40 minutes, .472/.167/.548 shooting line, 1 three made all season, 2.5 / 2.4 A/TO per 40, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 315 total minutes
  2. Seventh Woods: 7.9 points per 40 minutes, .306/.167/.610 shooting line, 2 threes made all season, 6.3 / 5.4 A/TO per 40, 7.1 rebounds and 2.7 steals per 40. 309 total minutes
Seventh really struggled to score from two and turned the ball over, which at least Trimble's avoided. But even Seventh was able to score more often and showed a lot more passing ability. He also popped much more athletically, with more than twice as many rebounds and triple the steal rate. It's early, but I just really don't see much with Trimble. He's got a long way to go to even be an adequate reserve, and I think expectations need to come down. He's not starting next season.

Dunn: Similar to Trimble, I think we need to lower expectations. Dunn has hit a few threes, and that's about it. People might want to compare him to Kenny Williams as a low usage, limited athlete 3 and D guy. So far though Dunn is pretty far off what Kenny achieved his first two seasons:

  1. Dunn: 10.1 points per 40, .476/.283/.636 shooting line, 1.4/ 1.4 A/TO per 40, 2.7 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 341 total minutes
  2. Williams (first two seasons, approximate avgs): 10 points per 40, .558/.301/.694 shooting line, 3.4 / 1.7 A/TO per 40, 5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per 40. 739 total minutes
There's not a single stat that Dunn equals Williams at except for total points, and he doesn't have Kenny's defensive reputation. He's a limited player who hopefully can further improve his shooting to where he's reliable there and can be a shooter off the bench for us.

Wings

Leaky
: Have heard a lot of people say he's the least of our problems; while Leaky's defense deserves all the praise it gets, his (and the rest of the wings') lack of offense is making it much harder on the other players. Bacot gets doubled even before the catch, and wings dig hard on every Davis/Love drive. You can't really afford to have multiple non-scorers playing at the same time, but this unfortunately describes too many of our players. We've had recent successful low usage players like the aforementioned Kenny Williams or Theo Pinson, but they both brought some offensive skill to the table.

Kenny could shoot, which spaced the floor for others, and averaged almost 15 points per 40 minutes in his best season. Theo was a good ball handler who could pass, averaging a PG-like 6.3 assists per 40 for his career and almost 14 points per 40 as a senior. Leaky has never even averaged 10 points per 40, is under 30% from three this year and for his career, and is down to 3.2 assists per 40 for his career, falling to under 2 this year. It's one thing to be limited on offense, but it's another still to not add much value at all there. That pretty much negates all his positive defensive value.

Nance: more of a big, but fits in this section. Unfortunately Nance's SR year at Northwestern seems to be mostly empty calorie stats on a bad team, as he's been underwhelming. Doesn't really space the floor, shooting under 50% from 2, low rebounding numbers for a hybrid big, assists have been cut in half from last year, and not strong/quick enough to be a defensive plus. Not providing spacing has been killer for our offense compared to Brady, and he's not making up for it on the defensive end.

Puff: three seasons in, Puff has dealt with a lot of injuries but I think we can safely conclude he's a role player at the ACC level. 11.2 career points per 40 minutes and a 26% career 3-pt shooter whose not a great rebounder and is a foul machine, he doesn't stand out on either end. He rarely looks horrible, but is not a scorer and doesn't excel on defense either on-ball or off-ball.

Styles / Nickel: hard to say with these two as they've gotten so little time. Thing is though, when the rest of your wings aren't great their lack of time likely portends really poorly. If they were better they'd be getting run. Styles doesn't have offensive skills for this level and his negative 6.5 BPM in his very limited minutes is about as bad as you'll see. NIckel looks fine offensively, but i can only assume gets blown by all the time in practice to make Hubert think he's mostly unplayable defensively.

Bigs

Bacot: clearly our best player. Offensive and rebounding stud. He holds his own but is not terrific defensively, due to lack of foot speed and leaping ability mostly.

Washington: showed some flashes as a scorer, though not gotten many minutes. Comparing Wash to some recent UNC centers as freshman:

  1. Washington: 15.9 points per 40, .571 2-pt %, .647 FT %, 9.3 RB per 40, 0.4 blocks per 40
  2. Bacot: 15.7 points per 40, .469 2-pt %, .645 FT %, 13.5 RB per 40, 1.8 blocks per 40
  3. Garrison Brooks: 12.4 points per 40, .528 2-pt %, .587 FT %, 9.5 RB per 40, 0.8 blocks per 40
  4. Kennedy Meeks: 18.6 points per 40, .548 2-pt %, .586 FT %, 14.9 RB per 40, 1.9 blocks per 40
There's clearly offensive skill there, as Washington has the best shooting of the bunch. The concern is the rebounding and defense, where he's the worst of the group by far, and Brooks was a bit undersized to play center. We don't know the extent that injuries are continuing to limit Washington's explosiveness, but there's a danger of similar issues as RJ Davis. It's possible Washington may struggle to find a position if he's not actually a center, but also not quick enough to defend 4s on the wing. You can't afford to have a center provide so little rim protection. Nonetheless, Washington is showing the most promise of the young players and the only one who really profiles as a potential starter in the future.

Overall

If you read all that you can see that we really only have one player without major flaws, so it shouldn't be too surprising we're a bubble team. The roster is simply deficient relative to Carolina standards: we have a thin group of guards that can't defend, no offensive talent on the wing, and no solid bigs behind Armando.

Next year

We have High and Wilcher coming in. Wilcher could be Coby White, I really have no idea, but the #30 recruit in the class is not typically a hugely impactful player as a freshman. I expect at least one of Cadeau/Jackson to reclass, both because we have little offensive talent and because reclass rumors tend to turn into actual reclasses. So one of them could be starting alongside Davis, though I think absent them being fully ready we need a top flight lead ball handler to relieve Davis of PG duties and a two way wing (potentially two... who is starting there next year?). That's assuming Davis and Bacot return. If not we need a starting center to pair with Washington (who could have more injuries or otherwise not be fully ready) and potentially another guard/wing.
UNC better hit the portal hard or go .500 or worse next year
 
Next year's starters???

RJ or reclass
Wilcher
transfer or reclass
transfer
Washington or ?

Note, too, that we'll be shorter next year unless we pick up height in the portal. Cadeau is 6'1. Wilcher and Jackson are 6'4. I could see those guys and RJ getting most of the minutes at PG, SG and SF.

Of course Armando could return. He doesn't seem to be a happy camper, but most of us at some time in our lives keep a job we don't really like because of the paycheck. So he might. Alternatively, RJ might decide he'd rather play somewhere else to escape the psychological miasma.

And, of course, some of our guys might transform over the summer. That has happened in the past, right? I'm sure if I think about it long enough some name will come to me.
 
I'm sure some of these guys are likable guys. And much of their disappointment is beyond their control. Weird roster composition, bad scheme, poor coaching and limited minutes for the bench. In a parallel universe where each of these guys plays with a different set of teammates, I'm sure most of them could be successful.

With that said, I honestly would like to turn the entire roster over. Literally, everyone leave and start anew. I just don't like this team at all.
 
UNC better hit the portal hard or go .500 or worse next year
I worry about this. Depending on who leaves, without transfers or reclassifications, we have little hope of even matching this disappointing season.

Unless- just maybe - we have a little addition-by-subtraction if/when certain people leave.

Will Hubert be successful again in the portal?

Clearly he has the personality for it. And UNC can point to Cam and Brady as great successes.

The problem is it took Cam 2 years and that was under Roy before he imploded (2019). So Hubert's only success was Brady. And by now most of us are probably realizing that was a lot more Brady than Hubert.

Plus, one reason to transfer to a school like UNC is to play in the post-season. If we miss the NCAAT, that's another strike against us in the portal.

Point being, there's a risk Carolina's brand may be too tarnished to get the help we really need from the portal.

Moreover, after watching this season, will our 2024 commits want to reclassify? And if they do want to reclassify, will they still want to come here? Would you?
 
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The elephant in the room is Love. What does Hubert do with him if he wants to return? Hubert did not have the guts to rein him in this year and it was a detriment to the team. If he comes back he likely starts, plays the same way and gets 35+ mpg trying to audition for the NBA.

So, what does Hubert do about Love? Does he ask him to look elsewhere. That seems very unlike Hubert based on what we know about him.
Good question.

Another good question is if Caleb returns, who transfers?

And another is if Caleb returns, who doesn't reclassify or what transfers do we miss out on?

RJ and Caleb seem to be getting along a bit better, but how deep does that go? They're making an effort, but it often looks like kids who have been ordered to play nice by their parents, or else. Just a veneer.

If I could only have RJ or Caleb, I'd pick RJ. Less size and upside, but more heart and dedication. Of course that's just from watching them for 3 years, so I could be wrong.
 
I'm sure some of these guys are likable guys. And much of their disappointment is beyond their control. Weird roster composition, bad scheme, poor coaching and limited minutes for the bench. In a parallel universe where each of these guys plays with a different set of teammates, I'm sure most of them could be successful.

With that said, I honestly would like to turn the entire roster over. Literally, everyone leave and start anew. I just don't like this team at all.
I agree with your first paragraph. But I do like some of these guys enough to want to build a better team with them on it.
 
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The elephant in the room is Love. What does Hubert do with him if he wants to return? Hubert did not have the guts to rein him in this year and it was a detriment to the team. If he comes back he likely starts, plays the same way and gets 35+ mpg trying to audition for the NBA.

So, what does Hubert do about Love? Does he ask him to look elsewhere. That seems very unlike Hubert based on what we know about him.
Yep I expect he will tell him to look elsewhere if he wants to keep his job, which I'm sure he does. Can't afford to run it back.
 
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The elephant in the room is Love. What does Hubert do with him if he wants to return? Hubert did not have the guts to rein him in this year and it was a detriment to the team. If he comes back he likely starts, plays the same way and gets 35+ mpg trying to audition for the NBA.

So, what does Hubert do about Love? Does he ask him to look elsewhere. That seems very unlike Hubert based on what we know about him.
All of them.

Not just Love
.
 
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Find an ace perimeter shot-maker. Find a Brady Manek. That's a priority.

Yeah, if one guy leaving can make us go from pretty good to pretty bad, I have to believe that one guy coming can take us from pretty bad back to pretty good. But honestly, the last 2 seasons of Carolina basketball have defied all logic and conventional wisdom. I seriously don’t know what to think of it all.
 
Davis biggest challenge will be finding a wing who can shoot the ball, finish around the rim, and play good to decent defense. Next is a power forward (4) as strummingram stated that can play similar to Manek, does not have to be as good, but is mobile, can shot the mid range jumper, rebound and play good defense. Those two positions will improve the team, and will take some of the scoring pressure off the other 3 positions.
 
If Hubert is going to run a more pace and space system in the halfcourt, then the recruiting needs to be more specific than it typically is in college.

An NBA offensive system requires typically 3 dudes on the floor who can play without the ball. The easiest of this version is the 3 and D guy.

This team doesn’t have that. 4 of the 5 starters need the ball in their hands to be useful. And Leaky is just useless on offense. Then Dunn needs the ball off the bench. Jalen needs to the ball. Seth is useless offensively. Puff knows how to play without the ball, but if you’re hurt all the time, your value goes away.

Get more dudes where the ratio of dribbles taken per points scored is as low as possible.

If Caleb Love comes back next year, it absolutely raises our ceiling but it significantly lowers our floor. I would rather have some dude who averages 11/game and shoots 40% from 3 without having a single dunk highlight the entire season.
 
I would rather have some dude who averages 11/game and shoots 40% from 3 without having a single dunk highlight the entire season.
And plays decent D, of course. Kerwin fit your offensive requirement but was benched because of D.

Then again, was Kerwin's D really that much worse than some of the guys who stayed?

I see Kerwin is coming off the bench for Texas Tech, too. But he is shooting 41.1%. He might have been helpful.

Is it wrong to think that guys like Kerwin would do better in a zone system like Syracuse? Would playing zone make his D less of a liability?
 
The elephant in the room is Love. What does Hubert do with him if he wants to return? Hubert did not have the guts to rein him in this year and it was a detriment to the team. If he comes back he likely starts, plays the same way and gets 35+ mpg trying to audition for the NBA.

So, what does Hubert do about Love? Does he ask him to look elsewhere. That seems very unlike Hubert based on what we know about him.
Actually, IF, major IF there, if they did not play like Hubert wanting them to play (which strikes me counter to what I have heard Hubert say in his PCs) then next season he can easy tell them, we tried it your way last season, it didn't work, now let's play UNC basketball.
 
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  1. Washington: 15.9 points per 40, .571 2-pt %, .647 FT %, 9.3 RB per 40, 0.4 blocks per 40
  2. Bacot: 15.7 points per 40, .469 2-pt %, .645 FT %, 13.5 RB per 40, 1.8 blocks per 40
  3. Garrison Brooks: 12.4 points per 40, .528 2-pt %, .587 FT %, 9.5 RB per 40, 0.8 blocks per 40
  4. Kennedy Meeks: 18.6 points per 40, .548 2-pt %, .586 FT %, 14.9 RB per 40, 1.9 blocks per 40
I'm convinced. Can we get Meeks back for a COVID year?
 
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Everything has to start at some place, if that starting place is not right nothing afterwards is right until the starting place is fixed. We have kind of stopped and tried to restart now 3 times this season and that is a coaching issue, sorry but it is.
 
Next year's starters???

RJ or reclass
Wilcher
transfer or reclass
transfer
Washington or ?
Wilcher is going to step on campus and be the best ball handler on the team. I envied the idea of moving RJ off the ball w an Elliot Cadaeu reclass but from what I’ve heard, Wilcher is ready.

Switch RJ and Wilcher, Puff at the 3, Washington or transfer at the 4, and Bacot to return for a Covid year.

I’m ready to see what this team looks like w/o “big shot” Caleb Love to bail out poor offensive execution late in the shot clock.

With a combo guard in RJ Davis and distributer like Wilcher, I think the backcourt is gonna generate some much needed ball movement and shot creation in the offense.

Trimble needs to develop some type of offensive threat. I love his defensive tenacity but he’s a complete liability with no jumper. I think Dunn stays at least another year. The man will need to develop some kind of consistent offense to keep him out there. You earn PT by playing defensive in the college game but you aren’t consistently out there without any kind of offense. That’s what’s kept Trimble and Dunn out of any kind of rotation.

Time will tell with Puff getting starter minutes at the 3 but I do think he’ll split some time with Nickle and possibly a transfer. I have more confidence in Nickle to make that freshman to sophomore leap than I did with Styles. I like Puff and his game but he either can’t keep himself out of foul trouble or injured. Again, consistency.

HB can spare himself the nightmare that would be trying to find a 5 man for another year. As Bacot is gonna be back (you can bet on that). However, an agile 5 man who can backup Bacot would be ideal. We saw that with what Ryan Young was to Duke this year. HB will need to hit the portal for a Jones Aidoo-type 5 man who doesn’t have to live in the paint to affect the game and allow for cutting room so the guards can drive and kick. If he can pick and pop, that’s just an added bonus.

The 4 man…idk what we’re gonna have in that position. But I do know that this is where we need contingency. Hit the portal for a stretch 4. That Brady Manek/Dawson Garcia role that allows for rebounding and stretches the floor to allow for spacing in the lane. Idk if Jalen is gonna be ready to step into a 4 position like that next season or if Zayden High can be that much needed support off the bench (judging by this season, I wouldn’t bank on a huge bench presence); but nevertheless, we have the best recruiter in college basketball right now. So go getchu one coach.
 
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Wilcher is going to step on campus and be the best ball handler on the team. I envied the idea of moving RJ off the ball w an Elliot Cadaeu reclass but from what I’ve heard, Wilcher is ready.

Switch RJ and Wilcher, Puff at the 3, Washington or transfer at the 4, and Bacot to return for a Covid year.

I’m ready to see what this team looks like w/o “big shot” Caleb Love to bail out poor offensive execution late in the shot clock.

With a combo guard in RJ Davis and distributer like Wilcher, I think the backcourt is gonna generate some much needed ball movement and shot creation in the offense.

Trimble needs to develop some type of offensive threat. I love his defensive tenacity but he’s a complete liability with no jumper. I think Dunn stays at least another year. The man will need to develop some kind of consistent offense to keep him out there. You earn PT by playing defensive in the college game but you aren’t consistently out there without any kind of offense. That’s what’s kept Trimble and Dunn out of any kind of rotation.

Time will tell with Puff getting starter minutes at the 3 but I do think he’ll split some time with Nickle and possibly a transfer. I have more confidence in Nickle to make that freshman to sophomore leap than I did with Styles. I like Puff and his game but he either can’t keep himself out of foul trouble or injured. Again, consistency.

HB can spare himself the nightmare that would be trying to find a 5 man for another year. As Bacot is gonna be back (you can bet on that). However, an agile 5 man who can backup Bacot would be ideal. We saw that with what Ryan Young was to Duke this year. HB will need to hit the portal for a Jones Aidoo-type 5 man who doesn’t have to live in the paint to affect the game and allow for cutting room so the guards can drive and kick. If he can pick and pop, that’s just an added bonus.

The 4 man…idk what we’re gonna have in that position. But I do know that this is where we need contingency. Hit the portal for a stretch 4. That Brady Manek/Dawson Garcia role that allows for rebounding and stretches the floor to allow for spacing in the lane. Idk if Jalen is gonna be ready to step into a 4 position like that next season or if Zayden High can be that much needed support off the bench (judging by this season, I wouldn’t bank on a huge bench presence); but nevertheless, we have the best recruiter in college basketball right now. So go getchu one coach.
Puff is a career 25% three point shooter. I would be shocked and disheartened if he's the starter on opening day after all the problems we've seen lack of shooting cause for most of the last four seasons. He's also not a scoring threat in other ways at only 10 pts per 40 and sub 70% from the line, can't rebound, is a foul machine, and is always hurt.

We'll need a big time upgrade on the wing, and Puff + Washington (who's yet to hit a three in his college career) won't provide the shooting we need. Two transfers are going to be necessary.
 
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There is a lot of speculation in these threads and a lot of condemnation on kids that are trying to do their best. Clearly most of you have never played high level competitive sports. Caleb is far from the biggest problem on this team. Without him this season is even worse. Coaching and a lack of making adjustments hurt this team. Also, thinking Nance could replace what Brady brought last year. Then you have Leaky and now two of your five starters are not serious scoring threats. No team can be successful when the other team really only has to guard three people. Look back at how many games that were one possession at the end and Leaky shoots and misses a wide open three. Hubert needs to spend some time with Roy and come up with a real philosophy of how he wants to play. He also needs to study teams like Arizona and how they run their offense. Like night and day from what he's doing. Carolina was known for dominating the boards, and always had a set play to get a basket when needed. Hubert has gone away from most of what Roy taught him, and some of those schemes and plays would work for this team. He would also do well to find a shot blocking rim protector in the portal.
 
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Puff is a career 25% three point shooter. I would be shocked and disheartened if he's the starter on opening day after all the problems we've seen lack of shooting cause for most of the last four seasons. He's also not a scoring threat in other ways at only 10 pts per 40 and sub 70% from the line, can't rebound, is a foul machine, and is always hurt.
Redshirt Puff.

His often-injured brother was good in his 5th year and great in his 6th year. I sense a familial pattern. So give Puff a year to do nothing but practice, work out and get healthy.
 
There is a lot of speculation in these threads and a lot of condemnation on kids that are trying to do their best. Clearly most of you have never played high level competitive sports. Caleb is far from the biggest problem on this team. Without him this season is even worse. Coaching and a lack of making adjustments hurt this team. Also, thinking Nance could replace what Brady brought last year. Then you have Leaky and now two of your five starters are not serious scoring threats. No team can be successful when the other team really only has to guard three people. Look back at how many games that were one possession at the end and Leaky shoots and misses a wide open three. Hubert needs to spend some time with Roy and come up with a real philosophy of how he wants to play. He also needs to study teams like Arizona and how they run their offense. Like night and day from what he's doing. Carolina was known for dominating the boards, and always had a set play to get a basket when needed. Hubert has gone away from most of what Roy taught him, and some of those schemes and plays would work for this team. He would also do well to find a shot blocking rim protector in the portal.
Very solid stuff right there!

Way to many folks here have set on Caleb as the scapegoat for the problems this team has had this season, I am one of them, I am absolutely guilty of that. I started watching a version of Caleb that I actually liked, I started watching a kid actually drive and look for the open guy to pass to and when Caleb drives he gets every defender's attention. His assist numbers went way up, his TO numbers, the brain dead type went down, and his shot selection got much better. IN fact he went thru a shooting slump where he seemed to be trying to self limit his bad shots, not sure he was playing as free as before and you don't want a kid to think, you want him to react, that is why you practice over and over to turn thinking in to instinct.

On this team, if Caleb or RJ drove the lane the defense collapsed on them, they constantly had to deal with double and triple teams, it is on their team mates to MOVE to a position where there is a passing lane, if there is no passing lane back out what was Caleb or RJ supposed to do but try to either finish thru a ton of contact or maybe draw a foul. Caleb gets the ball with 3sec on the shot clock, what else is he suppose to do but put up a prayer. Much more of the real problem was having to try to hide 2 weak inconsistent shooter in that starting roster, you can hide 1 but hiding 2 is no bueno.

Another issue, one rarely talked about with this team was Bacot, OK so it took me a while to digest this one to, credit David Sisk and Andrew youtude pods for for sharing this aspect. Bacot, for all he is he is a back to the basket 5, a Roy type of center. Good bulk and good strength allow him to carve out space, 1 guy usually is not enough to keep Bacot from getting to any position he wants, he eats space. But Bacot is not really a rim protector high riser, he finishes thru contact with good strength rather than over the top or with a floater from about 4-5ft out. Point being that as long as Bacot stayed in the paint his defender stayed in the paint, so any action going to the paint already had a natural double defender, back side help cuts off the slip to Bacot, the driver yet again is stuck trying to finish thru a double team and one being the other teams longest guy. The other thing is for as big as Bacot is, he isn't exactly that high rising rim protector that scares opposing teams from driving the lane, that alters a ton of shots, Lively for example.

I noticed in a couple games of late, our UVa win as 1 example, we actually seemed to play as a team better when Bacot went to the bench, that was both strange and un-expected. But Nance was a face up guy that could drag his big man defender up with him on that high screen, harder for that defender to double the driver and if Nance flared rather than roll down his defender had to go with him, clears the paint for RJ or Caleb to drive and caused the opposing defenses to collapse. It was easier to force the defense to move when we used a face the basket big man because it forced a guy like nance that did not move well as a 4 to now be a guy that you have to commit a defender to. We tried for way to much of the season to play a 4 out scheme with 2 centers on the floor and a weak jump shooting wing and we were all blaming our problems on Caleb or RJ?
 
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Redshirt Puff.

His often-injured brother was good in his 5th year and great in his 6th year. I sense a familial pattern. So give Puff a year to do nothing but practice, work out and get healthy.
I was very disappointed that Puff did not add weight in the last off season, he needed to add at a minimum 10lbs yet he ended up actually coming in 5lbs less than the season before? BOTH he and Jalen need to LIVE in the weight room this coming off season, it is VITAL for them both!

Watch Puff's jump shooting, no it has not been solid, he has shown he can hit but has not been consistent. But there are 2 keys for his jump shooting to improve (in addition to adding some weight).

1) He is rushing his shot to get it off and the result is he is falling off to a side when he shoots, he is not going straight up and down on balance. He is a bit of a side saddle shooter anyway so his feet positioning is going to be different anyway, meaning it will take him a split sec more time to get his shot off comfortable. He does not shoot nearly as well when he is rushed to get it off before a defender can get to him.

2) Son, learn the value of selling a great pump fake, let that defender fly on by, maybe a rhythm bounce and go up solid. That way they don't fly at you as hard and you have more time to get off your shot un-harassed.
 
I was very disappointed that Puff did not add weight in the last off season, he needed to add at a minimum 10lbs yet he ended up actually coming in 5lbs less than the season before?
I took Puff's weight loss as him saying "I'm a SF. I do not want to play PF."

He's a good size for SF and quick enough. If he can hit his treys and stay healthy, SF is where I'd want him to play.

I really thought he would get there by the time Leaky left, but even with Leaky staying an extra year, it's not clear if Puff will become starter material.
 
I was very disappointed that Puff did not add weight in the last off season, he needed to add at a minimum 10lbs yet he ended up actually coming in 5lbs less than the season before? BOTH he and Jalen need to LIVE in the weight room this coming off season, it is VITAL for them both!

Watch Puff's jump shooting, no it has not been solid, he has shown he can hit but has not been consistent. But there are 2 keys for his jump shooting to improve (in addition to adding some weight).

1) He is rushing his shot to get it off and the result is he is falling off to a side when he shoots, he is not going straight up and down on balance. He is a bit of a side saddle shooter anyway so his feet positioning is going to be different anyway, meaning it will take him a split sec more time to get his shot off comfortable. He does not shoot nearly as well when he is rushed to get it off before a defender can get to him.

2) Son, learn the value of selling a great pump fake, let that defender fly on by, maybe a rhythm bounce and go up solid. That way they don't fly at you as hard and you have more time to get off your shot un-harassed.
IMO keeping the culture of the off season of work in the gym and the weight room is coaching. He has got to keep that as a point of emphasis, and I feel like it wasn't pushed enough and I think it show on how NO ONE got better from last year to this year.

If they would have progressed as they should have the loss of Brady would have been smoother, and able to overcome.

If you are not getting better you are getting worse!
 
Caleb's biggest problem is that he just isn't as good of a scorer as he thinks he is. Everyone has played with a guy who is undoubtedly talented but just jacks up way too many bad shots. He has the shot selection of Kobe but he doesn't shoot anywhere near a high enough percentage to justify that level of aggressiveness, particularly with the deep 3's. There is no way his teammates aren't fed up with watching him try to play hero ball.

If him coming back were on the table I'd hope that Hubert really coaches him up on taking better shots and getting to the rim more.

I think there's a better chance of Mando and RJ coming back next year which both would help this team. RJ can be more effective playing off the ball, and provides experience as a primary ball handler so he could step back in the 1 spot if needed. Mando just needs to get those ankles healthy and develop some kind of midrange jump shot. His experience and rebounding would be a huge help next year.

I think Puff would surprise a lot of people if he could get healthy and get consistent minutes. Maybe a summer working with his brother's NBA resources can help him elevate his game. Hasn't shot it great but has the length to get off shots and has a decent stroke. And obviously the shot making gene runs in the family.

Washington and Trimble both need to have a big summer and really develop their games. Same for Nickel. I'd play those guys 30+ minutes a game if we decided to go the NIT.
 
Very solid stuff right there!

Way to many folks here have set on Caleb as the scapegoat for the problems this team has had this season, I am one of them, I am absolutely guilty of that. I started watching a version of Caleb that I actually liked, I started watching a kid actually drive and look for the open guy to pass to and when Caleb drives he gets every defender's attention. His assist numbers went way up, his TO numbers, the brain dead type went down, and his shot selection got much better. IN fact he went thru a shooting slump where he seemed to be trying to self limit his bad shots, not sure he was playing as free as before and you don't want a kid to think, you want him to react, that is why you practice over and over to turn thinking in to instinct.

On this team, if Caleb or RJ drove the lane the defense collapsed on them, they constantly had to deal with double and triple teams, it is on their team mates to MOVE to a position where there is a passing lane, if there is no passing lane back out what was Caleb or RJ supposed to do but try to either finish thru a ton of contact or maybe draw a foul. Caleb gets the ball with 3sec on the shot clock, what else is he suppose to do but put up a prayer. Much more of the real problem was having to try to hide 2 weak inconsistent shooter in that starting roster, you can hide 1 but hiding 2 is no bueno.

Another issue, one rarely talked about with this team was Bacot, OK so it took me a while to digest this one to, credit David Sisk and Andrew youtude pods for for sharing this aspect. Bacot, for all he is he is a back to the basket 5, a Roy type of center. Good bulk and good strength allow him to carve out space, 1 guy usually is not enough to keep Bacot from getting to any position he wants, he eats space. But Bacot is not really a rim protector high riser, he finishes thru contact with good strength rather than over the top or with a floater from about 4-5ft out. Point being that as long as Bacot stayed in the paint his defender stayed in the paint, so any action going to the paint already had a natural double defender, back side help cuts off the slip to Bacot, the driver yet again is stuck trying to finish thru a double team and one being the other teams longest guy. The other thing is for as big as Bacot is, he isn't exactly that high rising rim protector that scares opposing teams from driving the lane, that alters a ton of shots, Lively for example.

I noticed in a couple games of late, our UVa win as 1 example, we actually seemed to play as a team better when Bacot went to the bench, that was both strange and un-expected. But Nance was a face up guy that could drag his big man defender up with him on that high screen, harder for that defender to double the driver and if Nance flared rather than roll down his defender had to go with him, clears the paint for RJ or Caleb to drive and caused the opposing defenses to collapse. It was easier to force the defense to move when we used a face the basket big man because it forced a guy like nance that did not move well as a 4 to now be a guy that you have to commit a defender to. We tried for way to much of the season to play a 4 out scheme with 2 centers on the floor and a weak jump shooting wing and we were all blaming our problems on Caleb or RJ?
I couldn't have said it any better. You have to have a starting lineup where everyone is a threat. If Bacot had a consistent jump shot or was a legitimate shot blocker things would be different. Lively didn't score much for Duke, but he had a lot of blocks against UNC in both games. Hubert needs an athletic big that can play that role while getting at least 12 points. He also needs to get a wing that's a shooter and has some toughness. They play too soft and teams always play physical against them. Hansbrough or Brice Johnson on this team would be like night and day, because both play aggressive and with an attitude.
 
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Caleb's biggest problem is that he just isn't as good of a scorer as he thinks he is. Everyone has played with a guy who is undoubtedly talented but just jacks up way too many bad shots. He has the shot selection of Kobe but he doesn't shoot anywhere near a high enough percentage to justify that level of aggressiveness, particularly with the deep 3's. There is no way his teammates aren't fed up with watching him try to play hero ball.

If him coming back were on the table I'd hope that Hubert really coaches him up on taking better shots and getting to the rim more.

I think there's a better chance of Mando and RJ coming back next year which both would help this team. RJ can be more effective playing off the ball, and provides experience as a primary ball handler so he could step back in the 1 spot if needed. Mando just needs to get those ankles healthy and develop some kind of midrange jump shot. His experience and rebounding would be a huge help next year.

I think Puff would surprise a lot of people if he could get healthy and get consistent minutes. Maybe a summer working with his brother's NBA resources can help him elevate his game. Hasn't shot it great but has the length to get off shots and has a decent stroke. And obviously the shot making gene runs in the family.

Washington and Trimble both need to have a big summer and really develop their games. Same for Nickel. I'd play those guys 30+ minutes a game if we decided to go the NIT.
Caleb actually is as good a scorer as he thinks he is. Shot selection should be better, but the offensive scheme Hubert has does not help. A lot of those bad shots come with the play clock running down, no movement by the other players, and passing it back to Caleb hoping he can make a play. That's not real offense. Caleb worked out all summer in California with NBA players and they all spoke highly of his skill level and shot making ability. Playing three against five doesn't help either, because Nance and Leaky were not serious scoring threats.
 
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