I think there is a scenario in which we get in. It's not the most likely, and it is 100% dependent on us winning out (which is all we can focus on doing), but there is a chance.
Obviously, we don't know what the playoff rankings for this week look like yet, but if we assume they mirror the AP poll, then the top 12 will be comprised of 4 Big 12 teams (Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU), 3 Big 10 teams (Ohio St, Iowa, Michigan St), 2 ACC teams (Clemson, UNC), 2 SEC teams (Alabama, Florida), and Notre Dame.
Looking first at the Big 12, there are going to be some losses there. OK State has to play Baylor & Oklahoma, Oklahoma plays TCU & OK State, Baylor plays OK State, TCU & Texas, TCU plays Oklahoma & Baylor. If the currently undefeated team (OK State) stays that way, that means 1 more loss each for Baylor & Oklahoma. TCU is banged up right now, they will have a hard time winning one or both of their games. Let's say OK State makes it out unbeaten, in the playoff.
Looking at the Big 10, Iowa plays Purdue & Nebraska. Let's say they win out & make the Big 10 title game. Ohio State plays Michigan St & Michigan. Let's say they win out, ending any shot Michigan St or Michigan had. So we see Ohio State & Iowa for the Big 10 title, both unbeaten. Let's say Ohio St wins since they are higher ranked, Ohio St is unbeaten, in the playoff.
The SEC should see 1-loss Alabama take on 1-loss Florida for the SEC championship. Let's say Bama wins, they are in with 1 loss.
For the sake of this exercise, let's say Stanford drops Notre Dame & Navy beats Houston as well.
If we were to win out, being a 1 loss ACC champion, who would be left that would be more deserving? A 1 loss Big 10 runner up? A 2 loss SEC or Big 12 runner up? A 2 loss ND? A 2 loss Pac-12 champion?
The thing is, things could get really messy in the Big 12 if everyone beats on everyone & they all have 2 or more losses. Things could get messy in the SEC if FSU beats Florida, but then Florida beats Bama, giving them no 1 loss teams. Things could get messy in the Big 10 if Michigan St or Michigan beat OSU but OSU still beats Iowa.
If we keep winning, we will have to move up, because the teams in front of us will have to start beating each other. It is possible we could get in there if we win the ACC. I personally don't see how a 1 loss ACC champion that would be on a 12-game winning streak could get snubbed for any conference runner up, particularly if they have 2 losses, which would be the most likely scenario for any runner up other than Iowa. The only other team that I think could get in with 1 loss would be Notre Dame, but it would at least be a discussion of should they include the team who beat Clemson or the team who lost to Clemson. Houston is also a potential monkey wrench if they go undefeated, but if people think our SOS is a weakness (Sagarain has it at 73), then their SOS is a major weakness (103).
Either way, it's just exciting to even think about this for a moment. As long as we keep doing what we have been doing, take care of business on our end, there's no telling where we can be, and I love it! Go Heels!
