It is UNC vs duke guys, how ya see it?

[DSouthr]

The opening battle of the annual war...

Throw out everything you have seen so far this season, this one never goes to plan for either team. I have no clue who will win, I hope we do but I know better than to expect it. What I do know is that if you thought our game vs Ky was intense, ya ain't seen nothin yet! LOL

Duke has K back and you already know they are going to rally around his flag. They are at home in front of their crazies, you already know the clock operator will give them so extra time if they need it. Hicks picked up his first foul when he got out of bed this morning, Meeks picked up his first as he was eating his eggs for breakfast and both will pick up #2 as they step off the bus. All that is worth and extra 8-10pts at least for them.

I am expecting 22 from Kennard, around 16 from the tripper, 12-16 from Tatum. Really hoping not but I already assume either Hicks or Meeks pick up their 3rd foul in the first half so I hope Tony & Luke are ready to go to war. Theo may be the difference maker, really hope Joel & Justin are on, thinking may have to be for us to have a shot at the end.

So the mojo flows in the direction I want it to, gonna visit KFC and Bojangles for an ample supply of chicken bones ( I will bite the bullet and clean the meat off myself so they can make a proper spell . I hope that is enough but calling this one duke by 5 off a late push and a questionable charging call that goes against us. So now the David picking a team to beat us mojo spell is firmly in place, lets see where this one goes!

Pins & needles guys, pins & needles...

 

[shun1]

HI DSouthr, you are a really good SOUL my brother. Wish you a very BLESS DAY.

!!!!!!!!!!!! LOVE MY UNC TAR HEELS !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[dadika13]

So basically you think it's going to be a one-sided game in terms of officiating? That's about the only analysis you provided.

That aside, here are what I see as some keys...

- We have to defend the 3. If Kennard/Trip make 6 or fewer combined 3's, we win. More, we lose.
- Offensive rebounding. We've been historically one of the best all time and it's a reason we've beaten good teams. We can't let them keep us off the glass. Don't think they will.

Other than that...I think we're the better team and it's not really close. I think they have an advantage at one position (Trip vs Kenny), even at another (Kennard vs. Justin) and the rest is ours.

84-76 UNC.

 

[DSouthr]

So basically you think it's going to be a one-sided game in terms of officiating? That's about the only analysis you provided.

That aside, here are what I see as some keys...

- We have to defend the 3. If Kennard/Trip make 6 or fewer combined 3's, we win. More, we lose.
- Offensive rebounding. We've been historically one of the best all time and it's a reason we've beaten good teams. We can't let them keep us off the glass. Don't think they will.

Other than that...I think we're the better team and it's not really close. I think they have an advantage at one position (Trip vs Kenny), even at another (Kennard vs. Justin) and the rest is ours.

84-76 UNC.

So basically you are in insult mode first before you can say anything? I guess you are not able to understand any degree of tongue in cheek, that about cover it boss?

Gee, what an amazing gem of information, we need to stop them from making a bunch of treys and we need to rebound, pretty sure no one realized that so thank you for sharing the smart alec comments as well as the tid bit on the game.

Please excuse me for trying to offer something light hearted prior to a game that will be filled with intensity, am soooooo sorrrrry if it insulted your sensibilities...

 

[Tom79]

dadika, JJ is better than Kennard in many areas all over the floor (and two inches taller), IMO, so we can differ there, KW on Disgrayson is close but I'm calling it a wash...I think Kenny can stay with him and cause him to be frustrated, Kenny will force him to move all game long, tired legs by mid second half...as to Jefferson, if he is their only option/big our guys should handle the inside. I agree with you in that we're the better team and as to the qualities of the teams, it isn't close. That and that dump isn't all that tough a place to play. If the camera pans above the brass railing one sees a great many folks sitting.

 

[montana_heel]

Kennard worries me in that he could get someone in foul trouble with the effective fakes that he employs. He is very good at it. I have even looked at replays where I could swear he travelled but he doesn't. I feel like he is really critical to how this game turns out. Not really a revelation I know, but I believe it is accurate.

On our side, I hope we make a concerted effort to play inside out. Seems like we have been willing to settle for not getting the ball inside. It doesn't have to be shot from there but I would like to see the ball go into the paint to create opportunities tonight.

GO HEELS!

 

[r_u_worthy]

If the 3 pt makes for the teams are a wash, Heels win easily. We will win the boards. High Pick defense will be key as well. If the Heels don't "over-help" and don't need to-- Victory!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Tough matchups for both teams. Duke's default starters are a small ball team. We have height and weight on them up front (including SF), they have height and weight on us in the back court.

That could change in Duke's favor if K plays his bigs (like Giles and Bolden) more than usual. They actually have a good bit more depth up front than we do, but a look at the ORtg for some of those bigs suggests why K prefers a small ball lineup until Giles turns the corner.

Could change in our favor if Theo plays and is looking as good as he looked before rolling his ankle. Then we can match them quite nicely going small if we want to.

(the 3rd number in paren below is ORtg)

Joel (6'0 195 121.9) vs Jackson (6'3 205 115.6)
Kenny (6'4 180 115.1) vs Allen (6'5 202 115.1)
Justin (6'8 210 124.6) vs Kennard (6'6 202 132.7)
Isaiah (6'9 242 121.2) vs Tatum (6'8 205 105.3)
Kennedy (6'9 260 115.3) vs Jefferson (6'9 224 117.5)

Others, if they play (not necessrily matchups)...
Theo (6'6 211 149.3) -- Jones (6'5 204 111.2)
Tony (6'11 240 122.5) -- Giles (6'10 240 111.5)
Luke (6'8 235 107.1) -- Bolden (6'11 245 89.0)
Nate (6'1 175 103.1) -- Jeter (6'10 230 90.6)
Brandon (6'5 165 103.8) -- DeLaurier (6'10 220 92.6)
Sewventh (6'2 180 75.5) -- White (6'7 215 120.2)

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Justin defending Kennard could be an early indicator. Justin has superior size and adequate quickness to defend him one on one. But a lot of Kennard's shots make good use of screens. If Duke sets effective screens, Justin's height won't help. Our switches need to be very solid.

Isaiah could have his hands full defending Tatum. Can he be effective without fouling?

If we can punch the ball inside to Kennedy, how can they stop him? But can we punch it inside? We've struggled with that in many games.

Another early indicator will be Joel's first couple of treys. If he's seeing a big basket, that will help a lot.

Won't hurt if Kenny's new-found accuracy continues.

If we have Theo back, the ability to switch between big and small squads could prove to be a winning ingredient.

 

[Sk1310]

I read an interesting nugget the other day. UNC has had a double digit lead in 8 of the last 11 meetings at HIS. Only winning 3 of them. If we get a double digit lead, can our veteran team finish it off?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

What worries me most is that we'll come out flat and fall behind. It's Duke at Duke so that should NEVER be a problem. But it's been a problem several times for away games this year. We've lost to worse teams than Duke when we let them jump to an early lead. And limped to wins against a couple of more when we started slow. We can't let that happen tonight.

I want to see something like the OK State game, not the Indiana or Miami game. But that OK State game was a long time ago.

I rarely bitch about Roy's use of timeouts. But he needs to be ready to use them early if Duke starts hot and we don't. I will bitch this time if he lets this turn into another Indiana or Miami experience.

 

[Tom79]

Having Theo on defense would also add a great deal to our potential success, not even counting all his other contributions all over the floor.
Tatum hasn't impressed me this season, couple of things don't go his way and his game suffers. Hicks could work him on that issue.
If KW can give us some O and some D, I'm happy.
JJ just needs to be JJ in every facet.
If JBII can be himself, tough on D and run the offense, we should be good. I hope JBII sees the basket (WWJD) like I see the cup when putting....okay, its a stretch but you get the point...

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Before the season started, I thought we'd have our best chance to beat them in the first matchup because of the experience and maturity of our team. But they would have a good chance of beating us the second game because by then their frosh would have turned the corner and they have more raw talent, in theory.

I wasn't too worried about playing on their court that first game because we have been very good on the road most recent years (and started this year that way, too).

ALL our losses are on the road this season. Which works in Duke's favor. So I got that part wrong.

It looks like Duke's frosh are a mixed bag. Giles is definitely coming along. But he isn't there yet. Jackson is fine. Tatum is fine - too much like Rivers, but Rivers did screw us, so that's not necessarily a negative. Bolden and DeLaurier are struggling. They'll be fine next year, but it hasn't happened yet this year and K isn't giving them the playing time to develop (like Roy would).

If Giles has imbibed the Kool Aid, he could be ready to have his breakout game against us. But if not, it still looks like our extra experience may give us the edge over their on-paper-but-not-quite-ready edge in talent.

That said, our poor road performance since Maui has me pretty worried. If we were a good road team, I'd say we've got this. But now I just don't know.

 

[DSouthr]

Justin defending Kennard could be an early indicator. Justin has superior size and adequate quickness to defend him one on one. But a lot of Kennard's shots make good use of screens. If Duke sets effective screens, Justin's height won't help. Our switches need to be very solid.

Isaiah could have his hands full defending Tatum. Can he be effective without fouling?

If we can punch the ball inside to Kennedy, how can they stop him? But can we punch it inside? We've struggled with that in many games.

Another early indicator will be Joel's first couple of treys. If he's seeing a big basket, that will help a lot.

Won't hurt if Kenny's new-found accuracy continues.

If we have Theo back, the ability to switch between big and small squads could prove to be a winning ingredient.

I am wondering if K will elect to go big with Giles and Boldon moving Tatum to the wing or stay more with the 3 guard look for shooting? Really hoping Giles does not find his game tonight against us, he has the length to play over meeks with the mid range game he showed in HS.

While I do want Joel to hit some jumpers to draw in his defender, he should be able to drive who ever matches up on him because they have to try to check him with 2 guards, advantage Joel when he puts it on the floor and drives. Like to see us spread them out and give Joel the lanes to drive and dish, they like to play man, do we force them in to a defensive look they do not like (zone)?

Kenny is the type of player that can give Kennard fits because he is hard to shake, Kennard needs screens to get his shots, don't over help on him. Joel has the quickness to be able to stay in front of tripster, his (tripster) game is more drive than as a pure jump shooter thou he can get streaky hot from outside. He will want to try to use his size to physical around Joel and try to pick up bail outs or finish with his right hand, wants to drive left and finish with his right, don't fall for the left hand fake (Joel knows this).

I think Theo plays in this game and I think he is a key with his desire and ability to facillitate over a smaller defender and around a big man. Some timely scoring from Theo/Luke/Kenny would really be big, suspect they will try to make Kenny and Theo jump shooters by baiting them with open looks.

Meeks has the strength to force Giles out further than he wants to go, Jefferson is a problem , move him out and make him more of a mid range shooter than letting him get junk put backs around the rim, block him out. Much rather see Jefferson/tatum/Giles taking 20ft fall away jumpers than getting to the rim, especially for stick backs. So Meeks/Hicks/Tony/Luke will have to make sure they have good block out position and maintain it, don't follow the ball and forget to find your block out. DON'T PICK UP SILLY FOULS, MAKE THEM COUNT!

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

Tough matchups for both teams. Duke's default starters are a small ball team. We have height and weight on them up front (including SF), they have height and weight on us in the back court.

That could change in Duke's favor if K plays his bigs (like Giles and Bolden) more than usual. They actually have a good bit more depth up front than we do, but a look at the ORtg for some of those bigs suggests why K prefers a small ball lineup until Giles turns the corner.

Could change in our favor if Theo plays and is looking as good as he looked before rolling his ankle. Then we can match them quite nicely going small if we want to.

(the 3rd number in paren below is ORtg)

Joel (6'0 195 121.9) vs Jackson (6'3 205 115.6)
Kenny (6'4 180 115.1) vs Allen (6'5 202 115.1)
Justin (6'8 210 124.6) vs Kennard (6'6 202 132.7)
Isaiah (6'9 242 121.2) vs Tatum (6'8 205 105.3)
Kennedy (6'9 260 115.3) vs Jefferson (6'9 224 117.5)

Others, if they play (not necessrily matchups)...
Theo (6'6 211 149.3) -- Jones (6'5 204 111.2)
Tony (6'11 240 122.5) -- Giles (6'10 240 111.5)
Luke (6'8 235 107.1) -- Bolden (6'11 245 89.0)
Nate (6'1 175 103.1) -- Jeter (6'10 230 90.6)
Brandon (6'5 165 103.8) -- DeLaurier (6'10 220 92.6)
Sewventh (6'2 180 75.5) -- White (6'7 215 120.2)

Thanks for the matchup stats!

Yeah, K is back, so it's time to welcome him back with his first loss after back surgery!

As for the game, Duke is playing much better the last several games, but I like our bench better in this game, especially with Theo back....Question is, how effective will Theo be in this game?

Hopefully, he will be able to guard Kennard better than a lot of other teams have recently....Kennard is Duke's most proven player this year IMO, and we need to somehow limit how effective he is tonight so hopefully Jackson and Pinson can get the job done on Duke's best player, and wear him down without putting him on the free throw line!

Allen is always tough to handle when he's driving the lane and knocking-down the 3's from outside...Hopefully, Kenny Williams or Hicks can draw a few charges on trippy tonight when he charges down the lane?...Both those guys have done a tremendous job this year in that regard...

Bradley and Maye will be needed in this game a lot depending on foul trouble for either Meeks or Hicks or both which seems to be the case when we play at Duke...

I also hope that Joel's recent struggles with his shooting touch was just a blip on the season radar screen, and he will be back to normal tonight in running the team, while knocking down some 3's at times because that will be imperative to winning this game tonight....

Jackson has really stepped-up his game this season, and he must continue to lead the team in that regard tonight if we are to leave Cameron with a W...

Rebounding has been our strength all season, and it is paramount in this game to limit the Dookies to one shot, while pounding the offensive glass ourselves....It's both Hicks and Meeks final game at Cameron, and I hope both guys are motivated, and bring their A game tonight because it will be needed!

As most know, we've got several teams right on our heels in terms of contending for the ACC Regular Season title, and our most difficult stretch of the season begins tonight with Duke...

As Doc stated earlier in the thread, you can throw out what you expect to happen in this game because it is a rivalry unlike any other in College Basketball...On paper, we are the better team, and have more proven depth, but that hasn't mattered in the past, and will likely not matter tonight!

Which team wants it more will be the deciding factor in the end, and I hope that is the Tar heels!

We despise Duke, and they despise us!

Go Tar Heels!

 

[dadika13]

I'm pumped to see Kenny's lock down defense frustrate Trip all night.

 

[Coach325]

Duke fan here and you guys have covered most of the keys. To me, there are 2 keys to this game........Duke's shooting (mostly the 3 ball). And UNC's offensive rebounds. Whichever team can limit the other one's strength wins IMO. Good luck and my prediction is that you guys get us by 4.....hope I'm wrong!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This is also a good game because lots of folks have something to prove.

IIRC, Duke roster include something like 6 players that Roy offered. A couple of whom were virtual locks to us, according to some. I think Roy would love to show them why they should have made the "right" choice. Especially bigs like Jeter, Bolden and DeLaurier who are languishing on the bench. Kennard and Allen are getting good PT, so that argument doesn't really apply to them. But it would still be nice to show them that they could have done as well at UNC.

Luke Maye has been mocked unmercifully by some (not all) Duke fans on their board. A good game for him would be immensely satisfying for him and for UNC fans.

After a lackluster showing against Duke as a freshman, Kennedy has played reasonably well ever since, including a good showing against Okafor. But he doesn't have a lot of wins to show for it. Finishing out his college career with a couple of killer games against Duke would be sweet.

 

[gary-7]

The opening battle of the annual war...

Throw out everything you have seen so far this season, this one never goes to plan for either team. I have no clue who will win, I hope we do but I know better than to expect it. What I do know is that if you thought our game vs Ky was intense, ya ain't seen nothin yet! LOL

Duke has K back and you already know they are going to rally around his flag. They are at home in front of their crazies, you already know the clock operator will give them so extra time if they need it. Hicks picked up his first foul when he got out of bed this morning, Meeks picked up his first as he was eating his eggs for breakfast and both will pick up #2 as they step off the bus. All that is worth and extra 8-10pts at least for them.

I am expecting 22 from Kennard, around 16 from the tripper, 12-16 from Tatum. Really hoping not but I already assume either Hicks or Meeks pick up their 3rd foul in the first half so I hope Tony & Luke are ready to go to war. Theo may be the difference maker, really hope Joel & Justin are on, thinking may have to be for us to have a shot at the end.

So the mojo flows in the direction I want it to, gonna visit KFC and Bojangles for an ample supply of chicken bones ( I will bite the bullet and clean the meat off myself so they can make a proper spell . I hope that is enough but calling this one duke by 5 off a late push and a questionable charging call that goes against us. So now the David picking a team to beat us mojo spell is firmly in place, lets see where this one goes!

Pins & needles guys, pins & needles...

I'm sure we will get their best... and, um, worst. We'd better bring our best.

 

[keysersosay#1]

Must contain Kennard....... stop him or contain and we win. HE is the key to their team. I like our chances... Heels win it 76-70

 

[UNC-75]

What's the over/under on how many trips GA commits?

 

[carolinablue34]

Duke fan here and you guys have covered most of the keys. To me, there are 2 keys to this game........Duke's shooting (mostly the 3 ball). And UNC's offensive rebounds. Whichever team can limit the other one's strength wins IMO. Good luck and my prediction is that you guys get us by 4.....hope I'm wrong!

Much obliged, coach.

It really does boil down to each team's strengths and which ones can be used most effectively. I've gone on youtube and watched old games, and it's quite remarkable. Each team's style really hasn't changed all that much.

What I think duke has going for it at the moment, is K's presence, which was missed more than we realize, and home court advantage. Not easy to go inside hell and get a win. We're certainly capable, but I think you guys squeak out a close one. But then I think we pay you back on our home court.

Duke 73 UNC 69

 

[RP12]

What are the odds that Trip has some sort of event? I'd put it 70-30. With the buildup of this one he probably tripped 3 people just walking to and from class.

 

[imajericho]

UNC 85 - Duke 68

 

[SKYBLUEWITCHEESE]

You guys picking games in the 60s and 70s, these teams play no defense. I expect all star game style defensive performances from both teams until about the last 3-4 minutes. Heels 85-80.

 

[dadika13]

Much obliged, coach.

It really does boil down to each team's strengths and which ones can be used most effectively. I've gone on youtube and watched old games, and it's quite remarkable. Each team's style really hasn't changed all that much.

What I think duke has going for it at the moment, is K's presence, which was missed more than we realize, and home court advantage. Not easy to go inside hell and get a win. We're certainly capable, but I think you guys squeak out a close one. But then I think we pay you back on our home court.

Duke 73 UNC 69

You really are Duke's #1 fan.

How's it going on their board, haven't been there in a bit to see how much crap you're talking about our posters.

 

[carolinablue34]

You really are Duke's #1 fan.

How's it going on their board, haven't been there in a bit to see how much crap you're talking about our posters.

Oh shut up, will you? Really, I thought we were past this.

It's just my two cents. Take it or leave it. Otherwise, take a hike.

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

The opening battle of the annual war...

Throw out everything you have seen so far this season, this one never goes to plan for either team. I have no clue who will win, I hope we do but I know better than to expect it. What I do know is that if you thought our game vs Ky was intense, ya ain't seen nothin yet! LOL

Duke has K back and you already know they are going to rally around his flag. They are at home in front of their crazies, you already know the clock operator will give them so extra time if they need it. Hicks picked up his first foul when he got out of bed this morning, Meeks picked up his first as he was eating his eggs for breakfast and both will pick up #2 as they step off the bus. All that is worth and extra 8-10pts at least for them.

I am expecting 22 from Kennard, around 16 from the tripper, 12-16 from Tatum. Really hoping not but I already assume either Hicks or Meeks pick up their 3rd foul in the first half so I hope Tony & Luke are ready to go to war. Theo may be the difference maker, really hope Joel & Justin are on, thinking may have to be for us to have a shot at the end.

So the mojo flows in the direction I want it to, gonna visit KFC and Bojangles for an ample supply of chicken bones ( I will bite the bullet and clean the meat off myself so they can make a proper spell . I hope that is enough but calling this one duke by 5 off a late push and a questionable charging call that goes against us. So now the David picking a team to beat us mojo spell is firmly in place, lets see where this one goes!

Pins & needles guys, pins & needles...

I absolutely do NOT have a good feeling about this one. If there's a difference to be made, it will be made by Pinson. I agree that both Meeks and Hicks will be in foul trouble so the Heels are going to need a little extra from Bradley and Maye. Like you Dave, I see a late push by Duke being the difference of Duke +6. Where I differ is that I look for Allen or Kennard to have 30+ with the majority being from distance. Hope the Heels prove me wrong though.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Disgrayson

That's the first I've seen of that. That's really, really good. I will probably use that at some point. Well done, Tom.

 

[gunslingerdick]

We're the better team. I agree with dadika that I don't think it's all that close right now either. But we've been the better team lots of times and still lost to duke. I won't say they have mind control over us like we do over moo, but the basketball gods have been in their corner much of the past 5 years or so.

Rebounding and perimeter defense, like dadika said. Although I disagree with the idea that if they have more than 6 threes we'll lose. I think it's better to think of it as a plus/minus with our threes. If they have 6 more threes than we have, then that might spell trouble. But I think we'll hit 6-7 threes tonight after we've softened up the defense with some inside play. Hicks has to be aggressive and take the ball strong to the hoop when Tatum is guarding him. And he's gotten a lot better himself at guarding out on the perimeter. I hope our guards don't help out down low as much as usual. Make Amile and Tatum/Giles/Bolden beat Kennedy, Hicks and Tony one-on-one. Stay on the shooters.

 

[dadika13]

Although I disagree with the idea that if they have more than 6 threes we'll lose. I think it's better to think of it as a plus/minus with our threes. If they have 6 more threes than we have, then that might spell trouble. But I think we'll hit 6-7 threes tonight after we've softened up the defense with some inside play.

Yeah, I think you're more accurate than I am here...I guess I'm just so used us not being able to keep up with them 3 point shooting wise that I only concern myself with us defending it.

But you're right, if we're hot I don't think they can keep up with us.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

Much obliged, coach.

It really does boil down to each team's strengths and which ones can be used most effectively. I've gone on youtube and watched old games, and it's quite remarkable. Each team's style really hasn't changed all that much.

What I think duke has going for it at the moment, is K's presence, which was missed more than we realize, and home court advantage. Not easy to go inside hell and get a win. We're certainly capable, but I think you guys squeak out a close one. But then I think we pay you back on our home court.

Duke 73 UNC 69

I think UNC is better at Duke's strength (3 ptrs) than Duke is at UNC's strength (OReb).

This is a game where I think UNC jumps out to a big lead. Most players will tell you it's harder to play at home as a younger player because you get too amped up during warmups and overshoot during the beginning of the game and by the time you've settled in, you've wasted more energy than usual. And Duke is pretty young. I think Duke eventually fights back with the crowd at their back and takes a lead in the 2nd half but ultimately isn't able to sustain it due to UNC's superior rebounding and extra possessionss at crucial points.