Jon Canzano, who has covered the Pac for a very long time

[WoadBlue]

interviewed Utah HC Kyle Whittngham. One of Canzano's questions was about the future of CFB. The answer:

Q: You’ve talked about the future of major college football. That a line will be drawn in the sand and that Utah needs to be on the right side of the line. When is that coming? How many teams will it include? What do you see?

A: Well, yeah, I think there is a major realignment coming, and it’ll be a big one. I think it will create even more of a divide and exclusivity for the teams that are on the right side of that line. 20 months to four years? How about that for a time frame? In my opinion, it’s going to look very much like an NFL minor league.

I see an expansion of the playoff with that to 16 teams. The short version is Super Conferences. I think it’s going to boil down to 40-60 maybe teams in the Super Conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t play anybody but other Super Conference teams. Make that a division as far as who you play. Like I said, a full-blown playoff. Whether or not the players will be employees, officially, remains to be seen, but I think that’s very likely. I think that’s where it’s heading.

 

[WoadBlue]

If Whittingham is correct - and both SEC and BT fans have ben online preaching that for 5-7 years - then the ACC not being extremely aggressive to make certain there are 3 conferences left standing, not just 2, is the ACC being a flaccid piece of crap. If there will be no more, or barely more, than 60 schools, there ACC needs to figure out how to maximum the 20 or maybe up to 22, schools that would allow it to survive and be Abel to compete with SEC and BT.

Again, I say that means BC and Wake must go. I also think Syracuse must go, because unless Penn St is its league, Syracuse football is never going to deliver TV viewers -and its region sucks. Plus, Syracuse basketball has shown what UCon learned: outside the BE, Syracuse draws many fewer basketball viewers.

Those 3 cut leaves 14. Utah, Arizona, and AZ ST would make 17. TCu, Baylor, and TTU would make 20. WVU and Cincy would make 22.

The MST schools all have many alums in CA and many students native to CA. That would help the ACC see some value from having Cal and Stanford. 3 more TX schools would fully plant the ACC in that football obsessed state that is loaded with football talent. WVU has red hot blood rivalry with Pitt and one nearly as hot with VT. It also, like Louisville, has many fans living in the Cincinnati TV market. Cincy, which is Louisville's most played rival in both revenue sports, would place the ACC in OH.

The 5 states that every year produce the most D1 football talent are: FL, TX, CA, GA, and OH. That ACC would be the only conference ever to have at least 1 team in each of those 5 states. That 22 team ACC could survive and more than hold its own against SEC and BT.

Get SMU boosters in charge of racing enough cash to get that done.

 

[KeeLo]

I've never really thought about it in comparison with pro leagues which house ~30 teams. I'm now seeing how attractive super conferences can be and could grow to the point of establishing legitimacy to proclaim a "national champion". I'm understanding your point of market selection. Pro league markets seem to have an urban scope/setting as a base. But with college sports, to this point, it seems to be about popularity and tradition of the sport and establishment of the institution at its locale.

 

[WoadBlue]

I've never really thought about it in comparison with pro leagues which house ~30 teams. I'm now seeing how attractive super conferences can be and could grow to the point of establishing legitimacy to proclaim a "national champion". I'm understanding your point of market selection. Pro league markets seem to have an urban scope/setting as a base. But with college sports, to this point, it seems to be about popularity and tradition of the sport and establishment of the institution at its locale.

At some point leagues getting larger cross a line in which they can be large enough to truly be an entity alone. I think having at least a couple of schools in at least 3 Time Zones is all but necessary for that to work well. And that is especially true of a league that lacks football programs with massive stadiums and TV fan bases.

So I think that 22 team ACC I outlined above could survive alongside BT and SEC and compete very well in all sports against them. It also would have viewers across the nation in all sports. That would be especially important for any entity new to to showing the tip level of college athletics.

Dennis Dodd of CBS is now on record predicting that this coming winter ESAPN will decline to renew the ACC deal. Dodd is a strange duck who always has despised then ACC, especially UNC and Dook basketball (he is a KU fan and a Missouri alum). If the ACC leaders are smart, they want ESPN to drop the ACC, because that means the ACC is able to negotiate with others. We know for a certainty that both Apple and Amazon have wanted to show Major college sports for some time, but have not been able to break into the club. A freed ACC would be that opportunity.

This is an age of mass corporate stupidity and short-sightedness, so who knows how all these idiots think, beyond what seems obvious to me: both Disney and Fox would like to make certain that nobody but them can broadcast any league that is truly Major. They wish to hold a very uneasy alliance of 2 empires to prevent any other competition. That means that if Disney drops the ACC, it probably assumes that the ACC cannot survive, at least not with all of nearly all its value. That assumption might be based on a view that no other network or company will come up with a plan that pays the ACC enough to keep all its most valuable members together.

I am certain that nobody wants to pay for Wake. Even Marshall is worth more than Wake because it is in a new state and borders OH. New England is a region worth less than 0 to Major College Sports. New York is a state worth barely more than 0 to Major CFB. The ACC cannot afford to carry such liabilities. Jeff Bezos, for example, is a tough common sense businessman who will not shy away from telling the ACC that it's ability to survive as Major is almost hinged on cutting its dead weight (based on what makes CFB value and holds promise of growing fan bases), and replacing there dead weight with schools are as many of th following as possible: large state flagships or landgrants; located in states and TV markets that LOVE football; located in states and TV markets that produce a lot of football talent; will easily add the rivalries across the ACC.

Either the ACC makes such moves, or before too long Major College athletics will have just 2 leagues. Either way, Wake, BC, and Syracuse will not be a part of it.