Reclassification

[DaveChapelle]

How about some minutes at SF?

Nope. Weak handles, currently shooting 23% from 3pt range on the AAU circuit.

He shouldn't even be considering reclassifying. From what I'm told his parents have tried to squash that, but he really wants to. He needs a lot of development before he'll even get big minutes playing as a stretch 4 against college players.

 

[DSouthr]

When the only instruction from HD to RJ was get it to Armando, and Armando had trouble getting free, that makes everything else an afterthought.

You know what else causes a low assist rate? When you get the ball to wide open guys and they can't hit the broad side of a barn.

RJ had Brady and a much more effective Caleb in 2022. Ryan may not have the theoretical ceiling of Caleb, but he doesn't hog the ball and shoot bricks a lot, either. That's half the problem solved. It remains to be seen if Ingram and/or Withers completely fix the other half of the problem, but it seems a good bet they will be an improvement on Nance.

So how does a guy get wide open looks for a team that does not move off the ball well? Maybe because the other team felt they were in a better position to double off a guy like Leaky and not really worry if he puts up that trey? Passing the ball to a wide open Leaky while Bacot is doubled down low is to me nearly a turn over when leaky or nance misses yet another trey and the other team gets the board. You, as a PG, have to realize who the team mates is that you are passing the ball to. I find it hard to blame the poor shooter for missing the shot, that is what poor shooters do, I would prefer the poor shooter realize that he is a poor shooter and not put up that trey but that guy does need to have a better option than to shoot it (pump fake and drive on the defender flying out at you) but we moved really poorly off the ball to give him a better option. The pass to that poor shooter was a bad decision.

Bottom line, 2 aspects simply have to improve next season, first our shooting efficiency out of the 3 spot to force defenders to have to respect the shooter at that spot, this IMO will be a MAJOR change come next season because Ingram is a very solid open look shooter, especially if he has time so defenders can not leave that far from him to effective double another guy. And 2, we have to go deep in our bench, keep fresh legs out there, there will not be a single player on this team that should average nearly 40mins a game next season (28mins should be the upper limit and I would prefer more like 25mins max).

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Nope. Weak handles, currently shooting 23% from 3pt range on the AAU circuit.

He shouldn't even be considering reclassifying. From what I'm told his parents have tried to squash that, but he really wants to. He needs a lot of development before he'll even get big minutes playing as a stretch 4 against college players.

Reclassifying for "normal" kids (not Cadeau, who is old for his class and looks ready) is an interesting question.

If guys like Stevenson or Jackson stay in HS, they presumably wants to play a year in college in 2024 and then go pro. Two years from now to the NBA.

If they reclassify, they probably aren't OAD, so they play 2 years in college and then go pro. Two years from now to the NBA.

In both cases, they're 2 years away from the NBA. Obviously there are other possible outcomes, but let's go with that for now.

So . . . the question becomes whether they're better off having a big last year in HS or a low PT first year in college. Where by "better" I mean which of those gets them more NBA ready 2 years from now.

It's hard to see Cadeau benefiting from staying in HS. What more can he learn there? How can playing against HS guys get him more ready than playing against college guys? Plus, if things go as expected at UNC, he's only one year away from the NBA.

Whereas guys like Stevenson and Jackson aren't older (as far as I know) and aren't as ready. They're certainly good, and could probably play good minutes in college as frosh if they reclassify. But they aren't likely to start, and may not even be the first guy off the bench at their position.

Are there any downsides to reclassifying for guys like Stevenson or Jackson? Maybe not. They won't be BMOC, but they won't be chump change either. Of course they might get a little demoralized when older, tougher guys show them up in practice, but ideally they learn from that and get better, faster than they would in HS. And even if they are young enough to feel a little homesick, in Stevenson's case, his family is nearby, so probably not a big deal.

To me, the main concern is if they come here with unreasonable expectations. If they expect to start but don't, or expect to get lots of PT but don't. Does that translate into chemistry problems for them and the team?

If they are OK with non-starring roles for a year, and there are no chemistry problems, then I don't see much in the way of downsides.

 

[NorCalTarheel]

Reclassifying for "normal" kids (not Cadeau, who is old for his class and looks ready) is an interesting question.

If guys like Stevenson or Jackson stay in HS, they presumably wants to play a year in college in 2024 and then go pro. Two years from now to the NBA.

If they reclassify, they probably aren't OAD, so they play 2 years in college and then go pro. Two years from now to the NBA.

In both cases, they're 2 years away from the NBA. Obviously there are other possible outcomes, but let's go with that for now.

So . . . the question becomes whether they're better off having a big last year in HS or a low PT first year in college. Where by "better" I mean which of those gets them more NBA ready 2 years from now.

It's hard to see Cadeau benefiting from staying in HS. What more can he learn there? How can playing against HS guys get him more ready than playing against college guys? Plus, if things go as expected at UNC, he's only one year away from the NBA.

Whereas guys like Stevenson and Jackson aren't older (as far as I know) and aren't as ready. They're certainly good, and could probably play good minutes in college as frosh if they reclassify. But they aren't likely to start, and may not even be the first guy off the bench at their position.

Are there any downsides to reclassifying for guys like Stevenson or Jackson? Maybe not. They won't be BMOC, but they won't be chump change either. Of course they might get a little demoralized when older, tougher guys show them up in practice, but ideally they learn from that and get better, faster than they would in HS. And even if they are young enough to feel a little homesick, in Stevenson's case, his family is nearby, so probably not a big deal.

To me, the main concern is if they come here with unreasonable expectations. If they expect to start but don't, or expect to get lots of PT but don't. Does that translate into chemistry problems for them and the team?

If they are OK with non-starring roles for a year, and there are no chemistry problems, then I don't see much in the way of downsides.

Great post, great question and good points.

I think the answer lies with each individual. If they look at their freshman year as preparation for year 2 (what would be year 1 if they stayed in HS) and are prepared to put in the work without the guarantee of instant gratification, I'd think they are light years ahead. No pressure for the freshman adjustment, college in IL money, learning the system and school/basketball balance, not to mention playing against much better competition make reclass a no-brainer.

On the other hand, if there is even a small chink in their confidence, and continuing to play at the high school level might be beneficial. I would add that anyone at that level should play at a basketball factory high school to ensure quality competition. I also think bigs do better to stay in school in order to let their bodies mature and add muscle mass needed to bang down low.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Great post, great question and good points.

I think the answer lies with each individual. If they look at their freshman year as preparation for year 2 (what would be year 1 if they stayed in HS) and are prepared to put in the work without the guarantee of instant gratification, I'd think they are light years ahead. No pressure for the freshman adjustment, college in IL money, learning the system and school/basketball balance, not to mention playing against much better competition make reclass a no-brainer.

On the other hand, if there is even a small chink in their confidence, and continuing to play at the high school level might be beneficial. I would add that anyone at that level should play at a basketball factory high school to ensure quality competition. I also think bigs do better to stay in school in order to let their bodies mature and add muscle mass needed to bang down low.

Good point about the bigs. Banging against Armando before adding their freshman 15 could be an unpleasant wake-up call.

Would you put Stevenson in that category?

 

[NorCalTarheel]

Good point about the bigs. Banging against Armando before adding their freshman 15 could be an unpleasant wake-up call.

Would you put Stevenson in that category?

I can't really answer that because, in part because he hasn't committed, I haven't researched his game much. Whereas almost 84% of folks on this poll believe EC is ready for all the reasons we discussed, Stevenson doesn't seem so cut n dry

 

[dtodd4475]

I'm think PF or he could backup Bacot which is needed more if he is 6'10. Some sites list him at 6'9 some say 6'10.

He's not going anywhere to play center.

 

[NorCalTarheel]

He's not going anywhere to play center.

I would agree that Stevenson is strictly a four. We have Washington and even Withers, who as a freshman played center in the ACC and did quite well, ahead of him at backup center.

 

[gauchoheel]

Keeping Ian Jackson committed if EC comes now and is OAD is going to be tough. Not impossible, but very tough. He will want certainty that he has a good pg to play with and unless we get Fland, I am not sure who that will be. And nobody really knows what Fland will do but it doesn’t appear that UNC is leading for him.

He can play with 5th year RJ Davis. Not a bad option.

 

[NorCalTarheel]

Stranger things have happened than EC loving his time at UNC and deciding to stay an extra year to work on his game a play with Jackson, Powell & Brown? (see filipowski)

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Would NIL be a meaningful reason for guys like Stevenson or Jackson to reclassify? I don't know enough about how NIL works to know.

Is there enough NIL money in the UNC orbit to cover the guys we have and new guys who haven't even proven themselves yet?

We've all heard that Armando is doing very well on the NIL front. I assume RJ has decent NIL, too. What about guys who come off the bench like Seth or Washington? What about newcomers like Ryan and Ingram?

Do guys who get NIL share with their less fortunate teammates? You know, kind of like waiters sometimes pool part of their tips for the cooks and busboys and such.