Stat Review: @BC (1/20/24)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	45	39
3FG%	29	31
2FG%	51	50
FT%	81	82
fg%	35	85
3fg%	18	93
2fg%	42	67
ft%	86	11
PTS/POSS	0.96	58
pts/poss	0.93	28
TOTPOSS	150	12
POSDIF	8	81
%LOB	14	65
%lob	6	2
SmithIdx	-0.0676	39
Interesting Stats
ast/poss	0.13	73
AST/FG	0.60	56
OR%	0.32	41
or%	0.14	88
%FROM3	30.4	56

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
UNC faced another ACC level team and found itself in a tighter one than expected. The Heels scored 0.96 pts/poss on 45% shooting from the field. The Heels were incredibly sloppy in the first half, turning if over on almost 1/4 of their possessions. They cleaned up their act in the second half, and got that ratio down to 14% for the game.

Point guard is coming along, offensively. It was good to see Cadeau look to penetrated more, but also good to see the team get an assist on 60% of their made baskets.

Defensively, it was another weak outing. Despite shooting 35% from the field, BC was able to score 0.93 pts/possession. Why is that? They got to the FT line a lot, made thier free shots, and only turned it over on 6% of their possessions (mostly in the first half). In the last 1009 games, UNC has only had opponent play cleaner in 10 games. Defensive guard pressure is still basically non-existent with this team.

It was yet another outing where the opponent couldn't throw the ball in the ocean. On mostly open 3s, BC shot an absysmal 18%. Only 71 opponents of the last 1009 have shot worse.

The pace of this game was slow again, with only 150 total possessions. We really need to push tempo better, and attempt to score before the defense gets set.

UNC rebounded well, giving the Heels the ball 8 more times than BC. This was a real key to the game.

Next up is Wake Forest, @FSU, @ GT, and Duke, probably the toughest 4-game stretch remaining on the schedule.

 

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