Stat Review: Iowa State (11/25/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	44	35
3FG%	17	6
2FG%	59	82
FT%	72	56
fg%	44	37
3fg%	45	16
2fg%	43	62
ft%	73	36
PTS/POSS	0.84	25
pts/poss	0.93	27
TOTPOSS	152	14
POSDIF	2	50
%LOB	18	31
%lob	13	27
SmithIdx	-0.1892	18
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.55	37
ast/poss	0.23	9
%RMS	0.36	79
%FROM3	36.0	79

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
Rough day for the Heels. While the football team was busy losing a nailbiter to NCSU, the basketball team was in a nailbiter with Iowa State, until the final 4 minutes. That's when UNC fell apart offensively and defensively.

The key stat in this game is 3-point shooting. UNC only shot 17% from behind the arc. We've only had 63 showings that were worse in the last 26 years of the program. Meanwhile Iowa State was lighting it up for 44% shooting. UNC is still relying heavily on the 3, taking 36% of their shots from behind the arc. UNC continued its trend of low assists, as well, which is troubling. UNC only got 0.55 assists per made field goal in this game, a 35th percentile performance. Rebounding was average, with a 2-possession advantage.

One other note about this game is that it was one of the slowest games we've seen in a while, with only 152 possessions total. With only 159.8 total possessions per game, this team is playing the second-slowest pace of any UNC team in the last 26 years. The average is 169.0 with a standard deviation of 5.3, and the slowest was the 1999 team with 158.3 possessions. That team lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

I'm really struck by how stagnant Bacot's progression has been. Perhaps his ankle injury in the Final Four set him back considerably in the summer, but he looks like a player who continues to be an inside, finesse, below the rim player who cannot shoot jump shots. While he is an excellent rebounder, I really can't imagine what makes him stand out among other prospects. While I love the occasional Pete Nance jumper, I'm just not quite seeing the inside play from this team I was hoping. We seem to settle for 3s way too much this season, and with us only averaging 30.8%, that's not a strong option. (our 26-year 3-point shooting average is 35.7%, right where we were last season.)