Still confident in our 3-pt D

[JovialMuse]

First post, but a long-time reader. I've read a lot of concern about UNC's 3-pt defense so far this season, but I just read an interesting blog on Ken Pomeroy's website that I found interesting.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/things_that_predict_future_shooting_percentage

The basic take away was that predicting a team's future 3-pt defense is not easy, but the best predictor is a team's 2-pt defense. Right now, UNC is only allowing opposing teams to shoot 44% (good for about 80th in the country). Not bad. Our 3-pt defense % is awful: 37.4% allowed, ranking #283 currently.

But given our solid 2-pt % defense (and it was solid the previous 2 seasons as well) seems to indicate that UNC's 3-pt defense will eventually progress to the mean...which is to say, some teams will still have good nights against us, but there's little chance the blazing hot shooting from almost every UNC opponent so far will continue. And, in theory, our 3-pt D % will eventually become better than average. UNC 3-pt D was 14th best in the country last year and we have mostly the same team, so this gives me hope.

 

[soap - new and improved]

Stats won't make any difference for the bitch and moaners jovialmuse. While the same folks were bemoaning our "terrible" three point defense all last season I pointed out the national stats several times that showed we were actually way above average in that area. It didn't abate the criticism and whining one bit so far as I could tell. Their (mis)perceptions mattered more to them than actual statistical proof of what was really happening on the court.

 

[HeelFan58]

It's more about how many attempts we give up. How many attempts do we give up and how do we stand nationally? If one team give up only 5 per game and the percentage is 40 and another team gives up 15 attempts per game and the percentage is again 40 , then that is the real issue. I don't know how many we give up a game so I'll leave that to the stat guys. Just throwing that component into the conversation.

 

[BillyL]

JovialMuse,

Welcome to the board.

 

[JovialMuse]

Stats won't make any difference for the bitch and moaners jovialmuse. While the same folks were bemoaning our "terrible" three point defense all last season I pointed out the national stats several times that showed we were actually way above average in that area. It didn't abate the criticism and whining one bit so far as I could tell. Their (mis)perceptions mattered more to them than actual statistical proof of what was really happening on the court.

True, some will only see what they want to see. That's fine. I'll still point it out to those willing to see beyond their preconceived opinions about our defense.

 

[JovialMuse]

JovialMuse,

Welcome to the board.

Thanks, Billy.

 

[JovialMuse]

It's more about how many attempts we give up. How many attempts do we give up and how do we stand nationally? If one team give up only 5 per game and the percentage is 40 and another team gives up 15 attempts per game and the percentage is again 40 , then that is the real issue. I don't know how many we give up a game so I'll leave that to the stat guys. Just throwing that component into the conversation.

Good point. 34% of opposing teams field goals are 3s. 51st most of division I teams. So yeah they do attempt a lot 3s against us, but that's by design... Roy and staff would prefer low percentage shots over high percentage shots. So teams will continue to shoot a lot of 3s. Is what it is, but hopefully their percentage makes should drop significantly as the season progresses.

 

[CanuckChuck]

It's more about how many attempts we give up. How many attempts do we give up and how do we stand nationally? If one team give up only 5 per game and the percentage is 40 and another team gives up 15 attempts per game and the percentage is again 40 , then that is the real issue. I don't know how many we give up a game so I'll leave that to the stat guys. Just throwing that component into the conversation.

But even this is not entirely true. A team with a good 2p defense is gonna face more 3's. The key is how many wide open 3's are given up. I think you can find this stat at the NBA level but with all the college teams the best we will get is anecdotal evidence after a loss.

CC

 

[HeelFan58]

Good point. 34% of opposing teams field goals are 3s. 51st most of division I teams. So yeah they do attempt a lot 3s against us, but that's by design... Roy and staff would prefer low percentage shots over high percentage shots. So teams will continue to shoot a lot of 3s. Is what it is, but hopefully their percentage makes should drop significantly as the season progresses.

So of the 50 or so teams giving up more attempts than we do , how many are allowing above 37.4% and how many are allowing below 37.4%? At least 50 teams (the top 50 lowest is 38.9%) are shooting above 37.4. North Florida (44.4) has taken a whopping 387 in 13 games. Miami and Notre Dame both above 40% but you also have to take into account a lot of these early games are against inferior talent. Just saying it's more complicated than just percentages. My opinion is that half way through the ACC season will probably be a better barometer until then the eye test on how many are wide open has validity.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Good point. 34% of opposing teams field goals are 3s. 51st most of division I teams. So yeah they do attempt a lot 3s against us, but that's by design... Roy and staff would prefer low percentage shots over high percentage shots. So teams will continue to shoot a lot of 3s. Is what it is, but hopefully their percentage makes should drop significantly as the season progresses.

3's aren't low percentage shots if you factor in they're worth 50% more than 2 point shots. You can give up 34% from 3, which is probably near the national average, and not terrible, but that equates to 51% from 2. So the 34% "low percentage" shot is a fallacy to call it that.

The low percentage shots in basketball are from 16 feet to the 3 point line. Those are the most inefficient shots. That's the only true "low percentage" shots in basketball since players usually make around 38% of those shots.

 

[DSouthr]

3's aren't low percentage shots if you factor in they're worth 50% more than 2 point shots. You can give up 34% from 3, which is probably near the national average, and not terrible, but that equates to 51% from 2. So the 34% "low percentage" shot is a fallacy to call it that.

The low percentage shots in basketball are from 16 feet to the 3 point line. Those are the most inefficient shots. That's the only true "low percentage" shots in basketball since players usually make around 38% of those shots.

Hey, you screwed up, we won, you must not have realized that...

 

[ChiShankCity]

Today was a prime example why attempts matter when talking about 3-pt defense.

UCLA attempted 5 second half threes, made 1 while the game was up for the taking. Reasonably, we probably win and may have still won going away if we allowed 3 makes. So if UCLA shot 60% from 3 in the second half... Sounds terrible right? Well, we allow 9 points on 3's.... We'll probably be ok.

If UCLA attempted 20 second half threes and made 30%, that's 6 made 3's. 30% is great 3 pt D percentage, but, we may have sweat out the finish if we allowed those additional points.

For this team... The important factor is 3 point attempts allowed.

Going into the game, 40.6% of our opponent's shots were 3's. Need to shave about 10% off that.

 

[toophly1124]

Sjung speaks the truth ...our 2nd half D was amazing for the most part

 

[HeelFan58]

Hey, you screwed up, we won, you must not have realized that...

Not sure how he screwed up? Yes we won the game but the observation was spot on. Limited UCLA's 3 attempts in the 2nd half and we won going away.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Not sure how he screwed up? Yes we won the game but the observation was spot on. Limited UCLA's 3 attempts in the 2nd half and we won going away.

Probably didn't read my second post. Loved the way we ran UCLA off the 3-point line in the second half. Hopefully that becomes the habit.

 

[HeelFan58]

Probably didn't read my second post. Loved the way we ran UCLA off the 3-point line in the second half. Hopefully that becomes the habit.

Roy mentioned it in the radio interview post game.