Some good points here but also some speculation. Devil's advocate:That bad anxious feeling is fair, but you answered your own question before you even posed it, TBH.
Roy doesn't just load up and lie to kids in the process, and then sort them out later (like k and cal). He recruited as he always has but a confluence of circumstance unfortunately got in the way. As for the position in question in particular, Roy historically lines up his successors strategically. He'll secure his heir-apparent PG1, and supplement him with a PG2 or a Combo 2-Guard as contingency.
Make no mistake, Jalek was brought in to be Joel's heir-apparent as PG1, and was on the track to be just that... and Francis was recruited to be Jalek's. Coby was recruited as Kenny's heir-apparent at the 2 and as the aforementioned Combo who might get some PG minutes here and there.
It's instructive to be accurate here --- Jalek didn't wash out as a player. While yes, his immaturity helped get himself into a weird off-court situation, it was not handled well by the university and by all rights he should've been playing. In any event, there was no way Roy could've anticipated any of that mess --- any more than he could've anticipated Francis being set back with a microfracture
So think about it in perspective of normalcy, i.e., right about now Jalek would be coming off a break-out season as our PG1 and Coby would be coming off a season as a valuable back-up 2 who whetted our anticipation with his scoring explosions and ready to step in and start at SG next season (and likely not even looking at the draft yet). Sure, we'd be waiting to see if Jalek was declaring, but that would be mitigated by a healthy new PG1 Francis coming in this summer.
Funny thing is, even in that normal scenario Roy might still be recruiting the heck outta Cole as an OAD PG1, but in that case if he went elsewhere we'd still be in much better shape than if the worst-case scenario happened Tuesday --- at worst we'd be left with a (healthy) Francis-White starting backcourt.
All that said, yeah, it sucks being in this current position as we wait. Hopefully Cole commits to the good guys, Francis heals up 100%, and order is restored.
1. The initial Francis injury was almost 1.5 years ago (Felton stuff nearly that long too). There's been not just one but two recruiting classes in the interim. There was time to stopgap these issues.
2. I don't think Coby would have sat behind Kenny at the 2 last year. He certainly was a much better player than Kenny was. It's possible, but it would have been a big coaching mistake. I think Roy goes with the freshman when the gap is that clear.
3. Even if Coby doesn't start, he certainly could've played Nas/Bradley like minutes. As we saw with those guys, you don't need to be a starter to be OAD. So I disagree with your assertion that there was any reason to think our "worst case" was a healthy Francis and Coby in 2019-2020.
If Roy's not going to plan on guys ranked #15-30 being OAD that's on him. We've now had Bradley and Coby both leave, so a contingency for Bacot leaving should be planned for, not an emergency if it happens. Thankfully we've got Sharpe. And Francis' injury has been foreseeable for some time now, we just missed on Boogie/Moore/Mann/Green and didn't target a few other guys that could've been talented backcourt players. Hopefully we get Harris and a grad transfer.
