This game will be pretty simple. If Alabama makes its 3s, they'll have a good chance to win purely because they shoot so many 3s. They've attempted 30+ 3s in like half of their games. So the question for me will be will their bad percentage 3PT shooters shoot it better than their season averages? Aaron Estrada is a 30.8% 3PT shooter, yet he's attempted 146 3s. They have 2 other sub 30% 3PT shooters who have attempted 90+ 3s. So everyone on that team has the green light to shoot 3s. Hopefully they're defended well and hopefully they miss some quality looks.
The other thing is Alabama attacks the offensive glass aggressively and are good at it. So rebounding will be important. UNC has been an elite defensive rebounding team. But this will be a different game because the rebounds will be longer from jump shots. Will our perimeter guys box out?
I know I'll be in the minority here, but I wouldn't mind to see UNC make this a grind fest. I don't think Alabama can win a game that's in the 60s in possessions. That's not Alabama's DNA. It isn't necessarily UNC's either, but we've shown we can win grind fests. If you force Alabama to defend for 25 seconds, I think they will breakdown more often than not.
This is obvious but stay out of foul. Alabama can absorb foul trouble. I don't think UNC can in this game. Not enough shooting on our bench IMO.
I think we win if we play smart. Take good shots. I worry about shot quality because of tempo. Make them defend. You know what they're going to do offensively. Shoot 3s and try to shoot layups. They're going to make Bacot defend high ball screens to get him away from the rim.