Now that you've wasted all our our time reviewing what was NOT the issue - even though you got part of that wrong, too - maybe you can get back to the thought experiment.
I'm sure you won't. Is it because you don't understand? Now that you have sort of agreed that Pomeroy is better than random, what do you think the next step is?
SMDH. I got every last bit of it right. What is wrong with you?
As my breakdown clearly shows, if you think it's some sort of validation to do better than random, it makes it painfully clear you are just obsessed with pomeroy.
One last time: AP will be better than random (outside of the ASTRONOMICALLY unlikely outlier in which a random array gets close to getting the good teams in the right places), USA Today will be better than random. Yours, mine and rankings from everyone here will be better than random. All because all of the above have precondition knowledge. Again, period.
I'm gonna resist the temptation to disparage anything beyond the incredibly faulty logic, but FYI, I made damn good money from the Athletic Dept in college as a math major tutoring my fellow jocks in a particularly notorious required math course that featured a healthy dose of probablilty and statistics --- a course that had previously cost several athletes their eligibilty --- in which I took groups who were at a D or F level before midterm and got everyone through with final grades usually no worse than B --- and that was a course with a Prof who, trust me, was NOT jock-friendly.
What I laid out for you (on a silver platter) was the most basic of scenarios concerning the most basic of concepts, i.e., randomness --- something that I can tell ya every one of my struggling tutees would have easily understood in a matter of minutes before we went into far more complex concepts. I can only hope you can put aside your blinders and grasp what should be so obvious. Nothing I told you is arguable. It is (simple) mathematical truth.
But honestly, I've wasted far too much time on this. So nutshell? Your "thought experiment" is,
ipso facto, meaningless, so the only "next step" is to
step away and just read what you want and like what you want and leave me out of it. I'm done with this nonsense and don't care to see any more about it.
Period.
